Fabian Lopez — OGILVIE

Fabian LopezSS FCL Marlins

Age 21 S/R 6'0" / 165 lbs ROK HR -10%H -3% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 68 proj PA

wRC+†37

AVG/OBP/SLG.178 / .232 / .254

PA68

HR1

K%31

BB%6

ISO77

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 20 / POW 25

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT20

scouting grade only

POWER25

scouting grade only

EYE30

scouting grade only

SPEED50

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2038	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2023	17	ROK	DSL Miami	—	220	200	53	12	2	4	16	53	3	15	5	265	329	405	734	140	340	24	7	327	20	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK	FCL Marlins	—	214	196	40	8	3	2	16	56	1	20	3	204	268	306	574	102	273	26	7	260	5	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK	FCL Marlins	—	151	134	29	7	1	1	12	56	3	6	1	216	295	306	601	90	354	37	8	274	0	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	ROK	FCL Marlins	—	71	55	10	3	0	2	10	24	1	0	1	182	318	345	664	164	258	34	14	285	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Miami	—	220	205	34	7	1	2	11	65	3	15	5	166	219	239	458	73	221	30	5	198	20	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	FCL Marlins	—	214	202	29	5	2	2	10	82	1	20	3	144	188	218	406	74	220	38	5	175	5	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	FCL Marlins	—	151	139	19	4	1	1	7	82	3	6	1	137	195	201	396	65	287	54	5	168	0	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	ROK MLE	FCL Marlins	—	71	59	7	2	0	1	6	35	1	0	1	119	212	203	416	85	195	49	8	197	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Miami	—	220	205	34	7	1	2	11	65	3	15	5	166	219	239	458	73	230	30	5	198	20	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL Miami	—	220	200	53	12	2	4	16	53	3	15	5	265	329	405	734	140	340	24	7	327	20	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	FCL Marlins	—	214	202	29	5	2	2	10	82	1	20	3	144	188	218	406	74	227	38	5	175	5	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	FCL Marlins	—	214	196	40	8	3	2	16	56	1	20	3	204	268	306	574	102	273	26	7	260	5	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	FCL Marlins	—	151	139	19	4	1	1	7	82	3	6	1	137	195	201	396	65	310	54	5	168	0	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	FCL Marlins	—	151	134	29	7	1	1	12	56	3	6	1	216	295	306	601	90	354	37	8	274	0	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	ROK MLE	FCL Marlins	—	71	59	7	2	0	1	6	35	1	0	1	119	212	203	416	85	240	49	8	197	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	ROK RAW	FCL Marlins	—	71	55	10	3	0	2	10	24	1	0	1	182	318	345	664	164	258	34	14	285	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Miami	—	220	204	34	7	1	2	11	65	3	15	5	167	219	240	459	74	221	30	5	198	20	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	FCL Marlins	—	214	201	29	5	2	2	10	82	1	20	3	144	188	219	407	75	220	38	5	175	5	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	FCL Marlins	—	151	140	19	4	1	1	7	82	3	6	1	136	195	200	395	64	287	54	5	168	0	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	ROK MLE	FCL Marlins	—	71	64	7	2	0	1	6	35	1	0	1	109	212	188	400	78	195	49	8	197	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	18	ROK MLE	FCL Marlins	—	214	201	29	5	2	2	10	82	1	20	3	144	188	219	407	75	220	38	5	175	5	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	FCL Marlins	—	151	140	19	4	1	1	7	82	3	6	1	136	195	200	395	64	287	54	5	168	0	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	ROK MLE	FCL Marlins	—	71	64	7	2	0	1	6	35	1	0	1	109	212	188	400	78	195	49	8	197	19	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	21	MLB MLE	MIA	0%	181	167	31	6	1	2	10	57	2	3	1	179	234	256	489	77	256	31	6	223	37	-13	+0	+0	+2	+4	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	MIA	34%	152	141	26	5	1	2	9	47	1	3	1	185	241	273	514	88	259	31	6	234	44	-10	+0	+0	+2	+3	-0.5
2028	22	MLB CTX	MIA	34%	52	49	9	2	0	1	3	16	0	1	0	179	236	261	497	82	251	31	6	227	44	-3	+0	+0	+1	+1	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	52	49	9	2	0	1	3	16	0	1	0	184	231	286	516	102	250	31	6	227	18	-3	+0	+0	+1	+1	-0.2
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	612	112	25	0	12	38	200	0	12	0	183	231	283	513	100	250	31	6	227	18	-43	+2	+0	+7	+14	-2.0
Career	—	MLE		—	876	809	126	25	5	9	47	332	10	45	11	156	211	232	444	77	246	38	5	195	18	-15	+0	+0	+2	+5	-0.8
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	600	95	19	4	7	35	246	7	33	8	158	213	238	451	80	250	38	5	195	18	-45	+1	+0	+7	+14	-2.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Fabian Lopez (OGILVIE)	21	20	25	50	30	178/232/254	76	256	1	1	31%	6%	37	-0.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Omar Hernandez 2023 · A	21	37	36→30	52→55	36	180/223/245	65	267	3	12	33%	5%	31	-3.7	192/242/254	62	259	4	17	26%	6%	40	-3.0	208/245/263	55	275	4	21	25%	4%	40	-1.5
✕Hansel Moreno 2018 · A	21	43→33	38→40	51→50	41	206/255/288	82	285	5	12	28%	6%	53	-2.1	194/239/288	94	293	9	16	35%	5%	47	-2.5	177/222/269	92	266	10	19	36%	5%	34	-2.2
✕Dreily Guerrero 2012 · A	21	35	35→30	54→55	43	169/233/230	61	248	1	13	31%	7%	32	-3.7	175/222/238	63	300	3	9	40%	5%	29	-3.8	149/190/211	62	271	5	12	45%	5%	9	-1.6
✕Ricky Aracena 2019 · A	21	42→36	36→30	47→55	37	203/238/263	60	271	5	14	27%	4%	40	-3.0	191/238/261	70	278	5	16	31%	5%	40	-3.0	168/223/238	69	257	4	21	34%	6%	27	-2.5
✕Jelfry Marte 2022 · A	21	39	37→30	45→50	43	185/266/259	74	285	5	10	34%	8%	52	-2.2	196/270/268	72	349	5	11	41%	8%	55	-1.9	175/256/223	48	344	4	14	46%	8%	37	-1.3
✕Fernando Garcia 2009 · A	21	39	36→30	51→55	40	188/245/250	62	268	3	17	30%	6%	41	-3.0	210/279/275	65	283	2	18	24%	8%	59	-1.6	211/287/270	59	280	1	22	23%	9%	59	-0.8
✕Ted Obregon 2011 · A	21	36	38→30	51→55	40	179/231/249	70	257	6	17	32%	6%	35	-3.4	200/243/262	62	301	4	16	33%	5%	42	-2.9	198/229/221	23	305	0	23	34%	4%	23	-1.6
✕Brenny Escanio 2024 · A	21	38	37→30	53→55	46	181/261/252	72	275	4	15	33%	9%	49	-2.4	186/253/256	70	298	4	15	36%	8%	45	-2.7	167/233/225	58	272	3	18	37%	8%	28	-1.6
✕Carlos Ozuna 2014 · A	21	38	34→30	45→50	40	183/232/239	56	259	1	9	29%	6%	33	-3.6	188/232/261	73	292	4	5	35%	4%	38	-3.2	170/208/243	73	270	4	1	37%	3%	23	-1.0
✕Viandel Pena 2022 · A	21	41→39	38→40	49→55	39	193/248/270	77	301	5	10	36%	7%	47	-2.6	189/255/263	74	294	4	18	34%	8%	48	-2.5	198/244/283	85	286	6	20	32%	6%	44	-0.9
✕Didimo Bracho 2017 · A	20	34	37→30	48→60	35	167/219/234	66	259	5	13	36%	5%	28	-3.9	194/242/297	103	292	8	6	34%	5%	51	-2.3	178/227/316	138	248	11	3	32%	5%	46	-0.7
✕Blayberg Diaz 2024 · A	21	40	37→30	49→40	39	197/242/260	63	267	5	6	28%	5%	42	-2.9	204/255/261	57	286	2	4	28%	5%	47	-2.5	198/253/243	45	280	1	2	27%	5%	40	-1.1
✕Wilkerman Garcia 2019 · A	21	38→36	39→40	46→50	38	188/227/269	81	250	7	10	27%	4%	38	-3.2	207/242/296	89	287	8	10	30%	4%	50	-2.3	208/230/284	75	291	7	11	31%	2%	40	-1.3
✕Jean Walters 2023 · A	21	40	34→40	48→45	38	192/235/244	52	279	2	8	31%	5%	35	-3.4	210/250/284	74	285	4	6	26%	5%	50	-2.3	214/261/301	87	283	6	5	26%	6%	55	-1.0
✕Lizandro Rodriguez 2024 · A	21	41→39	41→40	48→55	43	201/270/297	96	279	8	12	30%	7%	62	-1.4	198/265/288	90	279	6	16	29%	7%	57	-1.8	179/250/263	83	249	5	24	28%	8%	43	-0.9
✕Nolan Perez 2019 · A	20	34	36→40	45→40	37	169/221/235	66	248	4	4	32%	5%	29	-3.8	189/228/269	80	320	5	5	40%	4%	38	-3.2	174/194/255	81	301	6	1	44%	2%	21	-1.4
✕Yeiler Peguero 2019 · A	21	43→44	36→30	46→45	40	202/248/271	69	284	3	7	29%	6%	47	-2.6	199/242/275	76	302	4	11	34%	5%	45	-2.7	155/184/203	48	251	0	19	37%	3%	3	-1.2
✕Julio Garcia 2017 · A	20	36→37	34→40	52→40	35	175/213/226	51	265	2	12	34%	4%	22	-4.3	188/224/257	69	295	3	4	35%	4%	34	-3.5	173/205/234	61	278	3	2	38%	3%	19	-2.3
✕Alvaro Gonzalez 2022 · A	21	39	37→30	42→40	43	186/268/256	69	277	5	6	32%	8%	53	-2.1	173/256/253	80	284	6	5	38%	8%	48	-2.5	124/213/190	67	210	5	2	40%	8%	16	-1.2
✕Lizandro Espinoza 2024 · A	21	31→24	39→45	47→60	38	161/223/240	80	247	7	10	36%	6%	31	-3.7	167/231/270	103	253	11	20	37%	7%	42	-2.9	159/229/271	111	233	12	30	36%	7%	39	-1.8