Santiago Contreras

C ACL Padres

Age 21 L/R 6'2" / 155 lbs ROK HR +5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	19	ROKDSL Padres Go…	124	.299/.443/.423	1	16	48	—	.184/.311/.262
2026	20	ROKSD	134	.194/.388/.265	0	5	34	—	.131/.279/.168
2027PROJ0% MLB	21	MLBSD	244	.192/.281/.269	2	5	60	0.0
2028PROJ34% MLB	22	MLBSD	66	.194/.283/.281	1	2	65	0.0
2029PROJ48% MLB	23	MLBSD	149	.199/.287/.294	2	4	69	0.1

Next 3 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032MiLB2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+4

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 Rk

Speed77

BB%68

K%48

Chase%41

wRC+34

Z-Con%28

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsJason Denham (age 21) · Hoy Park (age 21) · Luis Valenzuela (age 21)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 112 proj PA

wRC+†60

AVG/OBP/SLG.190 / .279 / .267

PA112

HR1

K%29

BB%9

ISO77

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$11M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 39 / POW 34

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT39

scouting grade only

POWER34

scouting grade only

EYE62

scouting grade only

SPEED62

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2032	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.5M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.2M
2035	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2036	Arb-1	$0.4M	—	—	—
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2038	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$2M	+$0.8M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2023	17	ROK	DSL Padres Brown	—	125	102	21	6	2	2	13	36	8	10	1	206	341	363	704	157	292	29	10	320	21	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK	DSL Padres Gold	—	126	84	15	3	2	0	32	40	8	7	3	179	444	262	705	83	341	32	25	352	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK	DSL Padres Gold	—	124	97	29	5	2	1	18	29	7	16	2	299	443	423	865	124	418	23	15	391	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	ROK	ACL Padres	—	134	98	19	3	2	0	24	29	7	5	2	194	388	265	653	71	268	22	18	311	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Brown	—	125	106	12	3	1	1	9	44	8	10	1	113	236	189	424	75	176	35	7	199	21	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Gold	—	126	94	10	2	1	0	22	51	8	7	3	106	323	149	472	43	205	40	17	230	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Gold	—	124	103	19	3	1	1	12	36	7	16	2	184	311	262	574	78	247	29	10	239	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	ROK MLE	ACL Padres	—	134	107	14	2	1	0	15	42	7	5	2	131	279	168	447	37	202	31	11	218	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Brown	—	125	106	12	3	1	1	9	44	8	10	1	113	236	189	424	75	177	35	7	199	21	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL Padres Brown	—	125	102	21	6	2	2	13	36	8	10	1	206	341	363	704	157	292	29	10	320	21	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Gold	—	126	94	10	2	1	0	22	51	8	7	3	106	323	149	472	43	233	40	17	230	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL Padres Gold	—	126	84	15	3	2	0	32	40	8	7	3	179	444	262	705	83	341	32	25	352	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Gold	—	124	103	19	3	1	1	12	36	7	16	2	184	311	262	574	78	273	29	10	239	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	DSL Padres Gold	—	124	97	29	5	2	1	18	29	7	16	2	299	443	423	865	124	418	23	15	391	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	ROK MLE	ACL Padres	—	134	107	14	2	1	0	15	42	7	5	2	131	279	168	447	37	209	31	11	218	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	ROK RAW	ACL Padres	—	134	98	19	3	2	0	24	29	7	5	2	194	388	265	653	71	268	22	18	311	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Brown	—	125	107	12	3	1	1	9	44	8	10	1	112	236	187	423	75	176	35	7	199	21	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Gold	—	126	95	10	2	1	0	22	51	8	7	3	105	323	147	470	42	205	40	17	230	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Gold	—	124	104	19	3	1	1	12	36	7	16	2	183	311	260	571	77	247	29	10	239	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	ROK MLE	ACL Padres	—	134	111	14	2	1	0	15	42	7	5	2	126	279	162	441	36	202	31	11	218	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Gold	—	126	95	10	2	1	0	22	51	8	7	3	105	323	147	470	42	205	40	17	230	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Padres Gold	—	124	104	19	3	1	1	12	36	7	16	2	183	311	260	571	77	247	29	10	239	48	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	ROK MLE	ACL Padres	—	134	111	14	2	1	0	15	42	7	5	2	126	279	162	441	36	202	31	11	218	34	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	21	MLB MLE	SD	0%	244	215	41	7	2	2	22	72	5	5	1	192	281	269	551	77	275	30	9	256	60	-12	+1	+0	+4	+5	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	SD	34%	192	169	34	6	2	2	17	56	4	5	1	197	286	285	572	88	277	29	9	264	65	-8	+1	+0	+3	+4	0.0
2029	23	MLB MLE	SD	48%	308	271	55	9	3	4	28	88	6	8	2	202	290	299	588	97	279	29	9	271	69	-11	+1	+0	+6	+7	0.2
2030	24	MLB MLE	SD	53%	389	344	71	12	3	6	35	109	7	10	2	206	293	309	602	103	280	28	9	276	73	-13	+1	+0	+7	+8	0.4
2031	25	MLB MLE	SD	55%	437	386	81	14	4	7	40	121	8	11	2	208	295	317	612	109	281	28	9	280	75	-13	+1	+0	+8	+9	0.6
2032	26	MLB MLE	SD	56%	465	412	87	15	4	8	42	128	8	12	3	210	296	323	619	112	281	28	9	282	77	-13	+1	+0	+8	+10	0.7
2033	27	MLB MLE	SD	55%	478	424	88	15	4	8	43	132	8	12	3	209	295	320	615	111	281	28	9	281	76	-14	+1	+0	+9	+10	0.7
2034	28	MLB MLE	SD	55%	482	427	89	15	4	8	44	134	8	11	3	207	293	315	609	108	280	28	9	278	74	-15	+1	-1	+9	+10	0.5
2035	29	MLB MLE	SD	53%	477	423	86	15	3	7	43	134	8	10	3	205	290	309	599	104	278	28	9	274	72	-16	+1	-1	+9	+10	0.2
2036	30	MLB MLE	SD	57%	470	417	84	14	3	7	42	134	8	9	3	202	287	301	588	99	276	29	9	270	69	-18	+1	-2	+8	+10	-0.0
2028	22	MLB CTX	SD	34%	66	59	12	2	1	1	6	19	1	2	0	194	283	281	564	87	272	29	9	261	65	-3	+0	+0	+1	+1	0.0
2029	23	MLB CTX	SD	48%	149	131	26	4	1	2	14	42	3	4	1	199	287	294	581	95	274	28	9	268	69	-5	+0	+0	+3	+3	0.1
2030	24	MLB CTX	SD	53%	205	180	37	6	2	3	19	58	4	5	1	202	290	305	595	102	275	28	9	273	73	-7	+1	+0	+4	+4	0.2
2031	25	MLB CTX	SD	55%	239	211	43	7	2	4	22	66	4	6	1	205	292	312	605	107	276	28	9	277	75	-7	+1	+0	+4	+5	0.3
2032	26	MLB CTX	SD	56%	259	230	48	8	2	5	23	71	4	6	1	207	294	318	612	111	276	27	9	279	77	-7	+1	+0	+5	+6	0.4
2033	27	MLB CTX	SD	55%	263	232	49	8	2	5	24	73	5	7	1	206	293	316	608	110	276	28	9	278	76	-7	+1	+0	+5	+6	0.4
2034	28	MLB CTX	SD	55%	263	233	47	8	2	4	24	73	4	6	1	204	290	311	601	107	275	28	9	275	74	-8	+1	-0	+5	+6	0.3
2035	29	MLB CTX	SD	53%	254	225	45	7	2	4	23	72	4	5	1	202	288	304	592	103	273	28	9	271	72	-9	+1	-1	+5	+6	0.1
2036	30	MLB CTX	SD	57%	268	238	48	8	2	4	24	76	4	5	1	199	284	296	580	98	271	28	9	267	69	-10	+1	-1	+5	+6	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1966	1739	355	58	16	32	179	550	33	46	8	204	291	311	602	107	277	28	9	273	68	-63	+6	-2	+35	+43	1.9
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	575	117	19	5	11	59	182	11	15	3	203	290	311	601	108	275	28	9	273	68	-21	+2	-1	+12	+14	0.6
Career	—	MLE		—	4319	3782	749	128	35	60	402	1242	97	128	31	198	292	298	590	100	275	29	9	269	68	-124	+9	-4	+68	+83	3.1
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	569	112	19	5	9	61	187	15	19	5	197	292	295	587	98	274	29	9	269	68	-21	+2	-1	+12	+14	0.5

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Jacob Stallingslast yr '25 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,850 PA	2.8	1,850	33	0	229	310	340	+33	+50	10.3	10.3
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+17.9	3.7	pk7: 10
#2Curt Casalilast yr '24 career totals — 10 seasons, 1,566 PA	2.4	1,566	47	2	217	311	367	+28	+19	7.8	7.9
/162	664	20	1	+11.9	+7.9	3.3	pk7: 8
#3Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	2.5	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#4John Henry'10-'18 * career totals — 9 seasons, 2,245 PA	3.4	2,245	2	55	204*	298*	310*	+35	+3	3.8	4.4
/162	664	1	16	+10.4	+0.9	1.1	pk7: 5
#5Lou Criger'01-'12 * career totals — 9 seasons, 2,522 PA	3.8	2,522	6	31	203*	288*	330*	+44	-1	3.8	4.2
/162	664	2	8	+11.6	-0.3	1.0	pk7: 5
#6Gabby Street'04-'31 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,677 PA	2.5	1,677	2	17	210*	281*	325*	+30	+0	3.1	3.3
/162	664	1	7	+11.8	+0.0	1.2	pk7: 3
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	3.1	2,079	31	49	206	289	311	+37	+24	3.2	3.1
/162	664	10	16	+11.9	+7.7	1.0	pk7: 3

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Santiago Contreras (OGILVIE)	21	34→39	29→34	57→62	62	190/279/267	77	275	1	2	29%	9%	60	-0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jason Denham 2007 · A	21	41→45	35→40	53→55	44	191/255/252	61	281	3	10	31%	8%	45	-2.7	220/280/300	80	293	8	18	26%	7%	65	-1.2	220/282/295	75	288	8	21	25%	8%	64	-0.8
✕Hoy Park 2017 · A	21	41→51	39→45	59→55	46	195/272/287	91	280	4	17	30%	9%	60	-1.6	220/296/307	87	294	6	17	25%	9%	74	-0.6	234/324/332	98	306	8	17	24%	11%	88	+0.3
✕Luis Valenzuela 2015 · A	21	40	37→45	55→45	39	195/234/270	75	262	4	7	27%	5%	40	-3.0	244/269/336	92	305	5	7	21%	3%	69	-0.9	263/285/365	102	319	5	7	19%	2%	78	-0.1
✕Edgar Rondon 2016 · A	21	46	37→40	52→50	48	213/291/294	80	278	3	12	23%	8%	69	-0.9	206/275/275	69	326	3	10	34%	7%	59	-1.7	169/246/196	27	334	0	12	45%	7%	28	-0.7
✕Jamodrick McGruder 2014 · A	22	40→44	37→40	52→50	47	193/261/259	66	255	5	10	25%	8%	50	-2.3	211/284/306	95	274	7	10	23%	9%	69	-0.9	206/287/304	98	264	6	10	22%	10%	66	-0.8
✕Ricardo Méndez 2021 · A	21	44	39→45	54→50	40	208/268/296	88	312	7	13	34%	7%	60	-1.6	217/259/315	98	317	7	13	32%	5%	61	-1.5	212/252/306	95	305	6	14	31%	5%	53	-1.3
✕Kier Meredith 2022 · A	22	42	36→30	51→60	45	197/266/263	67	278	4	12	29%	8%	53	-2.1	208/305/278	70	291	4	26	27%	9%	72	-0.7	223/339/272	49	296	2	35	22%	11%	80	-0.0
✕Noah Miller 2024 · A	21	40→47	38→40	51→50	47	191/267/270	79	268	5	11	29%	9%	55	-2.0	217/269/299	82	278	6	6	23%	7%	61	-1.5	224/272/309	85	279	7	4	21%	6%	63	-1.2
✕Isaiah Greene 2023 · A	21	45→42	38→40	57→55	54	200/309/280	81	312	4	20	33%	13%	74	-0.6	189/275/277	88	311	6	17	37%	10%	59	-1.6	148/229/229	81	253	5	17	40%	10%	29	-1.0
✕Jaden Rudd 2024 · A	21	39→36	37→30	52→50	48	179/290/250	70	276	4	14	32%	10%	61	-1.5	193/286/269	76	307	5	13	35%	9%	63	-1.4	155/260/202	47	253	3	16	35%	10%	36	-0.9
✕Juan Centeno 2011 · A	21	43	37→45	50→40	44	205/259/273	67	267	4	9	24%	6%	51	-2.2	255/296/318	63	315	2	6	19%	5%	75	-0.5	279/317/335	56	337	1	3	17%	5%	83	+0.0
✕Victor Nova 2021 · A	21	44	37→40	52→50	49	206/286/276	70	292	4	10	28%	9%	63	-1.4	183/257/258	75	293	4	9	35%	9%	49	-2.4	155/237/224	69	248	4	10	36%	9%	31	-1.5
✕Nelson Medina 2022 · A	21	38	38→45	53→50	51	181/272/260	79	252	4	15	28%	10%	55	-2.0	185/255/278	93	317	6	13	40%	8%	52	-2.2	140/198/215	76	278	6	16	49%	6%	14	-1.7
✕Esteban González 2024 · A	21	43→45	41→45	56→55	41	205/280/306	101	298	7	18	31%	7%	68	-1.0	211/269/331	120	298	10	24	31%	6%	70	-0.9	203/264/330	127	285	12	27	31%	6%	65	-0.8
✕Ghordy Santos 2021 · A	21	42	38→40	54→50	49	199/281/277	77	286	5	15	30%	10%	61	-1.5	210/263/311	101	346	9	11	39%	6%	61	-1.5	188/248/298	111	323	11	11	43%	7%	50	-0.9
✕Victor Arias 2024 · A	20	41→50	40→45	55→50	48	193/289/289	97	300	7	16	35%	11%	68	-1.0	227/296/340	113	318	9	15	29%	8%	81	-0.1	226/289/343	117	310	10	15	29%	7%	76	-0.3
✕Carlos Rodriguez 2024 · A	21	40	38→45	48→45	46	192/271/267	75	284	6	7	32%	9%	55	-1.9	191/263/273	82	291	6	4	33%	8%	53	-2.1	178/256/266	88	258	7	2	31%	9%	47	-1.0
✕Yeniel Laboy 2024 · A	20	43	37→30	52→45	47	200/283/268	68	287	5	8	29%	9%	61	-1.5	199/274/263	64	285	4	7	29%	8%	55	-1.9	166/248/183	18	241	0	3	28%	9%	26	-1.3
✕Robert Gonzalez 2021 · A	20	40	39→40	54→60	52	186/296/275	89	275	5	8	30%	12%	68	-1.0	190/293/264	74	252	5	17	24%	10%	64	-1.3	151/292/187	36	182	3	30	16%	14%	48	-0.8
✕Odalys Peguero 2024 · A	21	41	38→30	54→55	49	192/275/275	84	274	4	15	29%	10%	59	-1.7	181/258/246	65	270	3	18	31%	9%	46	-2.6	134/222/156	22	206	0	28	32%	9%	11	-2.5

Santiago Contreras

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps