Jormy Nivar

P Hickory Crawdads

Age 24 RHP 6'3" / 170 lbs A

Overview

APROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	21	ROKDSL Rangers R…	11	10	46	1.76	1.25	27.0%	2.7%	—	K 18.4% · BB 3.4% · FIP 1.98
2025	22	MIX2 levels	18	8	59	5.61	4.57	18.7%	7.1%	—	K 12.9% · BB 8.8% · FIP 5.36
2026	23	MIX2 levels	22	4	72	3.48	4.80	14.4%	10.3%	—	K 11.9% · BB 12.5% · FIP 5.51
2027PROJ	24	MLBTEX	64	0	67	5.75	5.75	11.1%	12.2%	-0.9
2028PROJ43% MLB	25	MLBTEX	28	0	29	5.51	5.44	13.7%	11.5%	-0.3
2029PROJ66% MLB	26	MLBTEX	43	0	45	5.34	5.28	15.3%	11.3%	-0.4

Next 3 projected WAR -1.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff30Control45Command35

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsCooper Adams (age 24) · Wirkin Estevez (age 24) · Cullen Kafka (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 142134vR 126

ERA5.75

FIP5.75

K%11.1%

BB%12.2%

K-BB%-1.0%

Proj IP67

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 67 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3030

CTRL4545

CMD3535

K†3030

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	20	ROK MLE	DSL Rangers Blue	11	1	30	127	30	13	1	9%	2.8	16.1%	12.8%	3.3%	0.9%	3.56	3.88	—
2023	20	ROK RAW	DSL Rangers Blue	11	1	30	127	30	13	1	9%	2.8	23.6%	10.2%	13.4%	0.8%	3.56	2.84	—
2024	21	ROK MLE	DSL Rangers Red	11	10	46	185	50	5	0	91%	4.2	18.4%	3.4%	15.0%	0.0%	1.76	1.98	—
2024	21	ROK MLE	DSL Rangers Red	11	10	46	185	50	5	0	91%	4.2	18.4%	3.4%	15.0%	0.0%	1.76	1.98	—
2024	21	ROK RAW	DSL Rangers Red	11	10	46	185	50	5	0	91%	4.2	27.0%	2.7%	24.3%	0.0%	1.76	1.25	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	8	59	268	50	19	10	44%	3.3	12.9%	8.8%	4.1%	4.1%	5.61	5.36	—
2025	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	18	8	59	268	50	19	10	44%	3.3	12.9%	8.8%	4.1%	4.1%	5.61	5.36	—
2025	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	18	8	59	268	50	19	10	44%	3.3	18.7%	7.1%	11.6%	3.7%	5.61	4.57	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	4	72	312	45	32	9	18%	3.3	11.9%	12.5%	-0.6%	3.3%	3.48	5.51	—
2026	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	4	72	312	45	32	9	18%	3.3	11.9%	12.5%	-0.6%	3.3%	3.48	5.51	—
2026	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	4	72	312	45	32	9	18%	3.3	14.4%	10.3%	4.2%	2.9%	3.48	4.80	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	TEX	64	0	67	283	31	34	9	0%	1.0	11.1%	12.2%	-1.0%	3.0%	5.75	5.75	-0.9
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	TEX	65	0	68	287	39	33	9	0%	1.0	13.7%	11.5%	2.2%	3.0%	5.51	5.44	-0.7
2029	26	MLB MLE	TEX	65	0	68	287	44	33	9	0%	1.0	15.3%	11.3%	4.0%	3.0%	5.34	5.28	-0.6
2030	27	MLB MLE	TEX	64	0	67	283	44	32	9	0%	1.0	15.7%	11.3%	4.4%	3.1%	5.28	5.27	-0.5
2031	28	MLB MLE	TEX	62	0	65	274	43	31	9	0%	1.0	15.8%	11.4%	4.4%	3.2%	5.30	5.33	-0.6
2028	25	MLB CTX	TEX	28	0	29	122	17	14	4	0%	1.0	13.7%	11.5%	2.2%	3.0%	5.51	5.44	-0.3
2029	26	MLB CTX	TEX	43	0	45	190	29	22	6	0%	1.0	15.3%	11.3%	4.0%	3.0%	5.34	5.28	-0.4
2030	27	MLB CTX	TEX	50	0	52	220	34	25	7	0%	1.0	15.7%	11.3%	4.4%	3.1%	5.28	5.27	-0.4
2031	28	MLB CTX	TEX	52	0	55	232	37	26	7	0%	1.1	15.8%	11.4%	4.4%	3.2%	5.30	5.33	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		172	0	181	762	117	87	23	0%	1.0	15.3%	11.4%	3.9%	3.1%	5.34	4.94	-0.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	130	96	25	0%	1.1	15.3%	11.4%	3.9%	3.1%	5.34	4.94	-0.9
Career	—	MLE		62	23	208	892	126	85	23	37%	3.4	14.2%	9.5%	4.6%	2.5%	3.72	4.50	-2.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		60	22	200	858	121	82	22	37%	3.4	14.2%	9.5%	4.6%	2.5%	3.72	4.50	-1.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jormy Nivar (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.75	11.1%	12.2%	3.0%	—	5.33	14.9%	3.5%	203	-0.42	—	—	—
Cooper Adams R 2024 · 5.42 FIP	24	SW	5.42	13.0%	12.2%	3.4%	.275	4.32	21.7%	10.4%	141	-1.10	3.05	221	89
Wirkin Estevez R 2016 · 5.39 FIP	24	SW	5.39	10.7%	13.4%	2.7%	.316	4.46	12.3%	3.5%	179	-0.93	4.37	238	86
Cullen Kafka R 2023 · 4.95 FIP	24	SW	4.95	14.2%	12.1%	2.8%	.330	—	—	—	—	—	3.64	148	84
Zach Willeman R 2019 · 5.57 FIP	23	SW	5.57	10.8%	15.0%	2.7%	.296	4.98	21.3%	7.8%	108	-0.59	4.05	264	84
Jorge Sosa R 2002 · 5.77 FIP	25	SW	5.77	11.1%	12.4%	3.7%	.228	4.55	15.7%	5.5%	362	-1.22	4.06	773	83
Tyler Brashears R 2017 · 5.47 FIP	23	SW	5.47	12.1%	13.0%	3.2%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.58	156	83
LJ Brewster R 2017 · 5.07 FIP	23	SW	5.07	9.4%	11.0%	2.5%	.266	—	—	—	—	—	4.41	143	83
Tom Reisinger R 2024 · 5.44 FIP	23	SW	5.44	12.1%	14.6%	2.8%	.381	6.49	10.3%	-5.6%	47	+1.05	5.44	110	83
Dennis O'Grady R 2015 · 4.95 FIP	26	SW	4.95	13.5%	11.0%	2.9%	.339	—	—	—	—	—	3.62	157	82
Kyle Miller R 2017 · 4.68 FIP	23	SW	4.68	12.1%	12.0%	2.0%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	2.83	164	80
Kevin Johnson R 2015 · 4.69 FIP	24	SW	4.69	11.0%	8.5%	2.6%	.302	5.52	9.9%	-2.0%	26	+0.83	4.69	106	79
Dane Myers R 2019 · 5.32 FIP	23	SW	5.32	12.2%	11.5%	3.3%	.287	—	—	—	—	—	4.26	125	79
Jonathan Hughes R 2021 · 4.60 FIP	24	SP-	4.60	12.9%	12.5%	1.8%	.351	3.79	16.5%	6.2%	146	-0.81	3.44	219	79
Paulshawn Pasqualotto R 2024 · 4.84 FIP	23	SW	4.84	15.6%	9.5%	3.4%	.354	3.77	20.2%	10.8%	111	-1.07	3.73	186	78
Jeff Manship R 2009 · 4.69 FIP	24	SW	4.69	14.4%	10.3%	2.7%	.330	4.23	14.9%	9.5%	51	-0.46	2.83	250	78
Hunter Adkins R 2016 · 4.64 FIP	25	SW	4.64	16.2%	10.3%	2.9%	.290	4.82	11.8%	0.5%	58	+0.18	4.64	160	77
Victor Santos R 2001 · 4.97 FIP	24	SW	4.97	15.5%	13.4%	2.7%	.231	4.38	16.4%	7.4%	206	-0.59	4.09	602	77
Blaze Pontes R 2024 · 5.98 FIP	24	SW	5.98	8.3%	11.3%	3.9%	.328	3.78	14.2%	0.5%	101	-2.20	3.37	250	77
Lucas Harrell R 2010 · 4.65 FIP	25	SW	4.65	12.6%	13.4%	1.7%	.372	4.24	15.1%	5.1%	365	-0.41	2.81	541	77
Matt Roney R 2003 · 5.54 FIP	23	SW	5.54	10.5%	9.8%	3.8%	.249	—	—	—	—	—	5.54	101	77

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	67	14.3%	11.5%	1.19	5.44
Luther Hackman ('03)	1.1	71	13.3%	10.9%	1.10	5.09
Brian Stokes ('10)	1.0	52	14.5%	10.1%	1.22	5.27
Rodney Myers ('04)	1.2	60	15.0%	10.3%	1.05	5.07
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*
Russ Swan ('89-'94, -2 WAR*)	1.3	89	12.3%*	9.9%*	1.13*	5.09*
Jim Winn ('83-'88, -1 WAR*)	1.5	77	15.1%*	11.0%*	1.09*	4.96*