Elian Soto

OF Fredericksburg Nationals

Age 21 L/R 6'1" / 182 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	19	ROKWSH	179	.139/.307/.264	4	2	1	—	.083/.201/.141
2026	20	AWSH	183	.261/.383/.399	3	4	69	—	.205/.301/.304
2026	20	ROKWSH	39	.267/.436/.600	2	0	88	—	.182/.308/.364
2027PROJ0% MLB	21	MLBWSH	332	.187/.277/.276	4	5	60	-0.5
2028PROJ34% MLB	22	MLBWSH	97	.192/.283/.292	1	1	66	-0.2

Next 2 projected WAR -0.7Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Ext$0.0M2030Ext$0.0M2031Ext$0.0M2032Ext$0.9M2033Ext$0.9M2034Ext$1.0M+3

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A

BB%78

wOBA68

wRC+68

Chase%61

Speed60

ISO53

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 96%

CompsAaron Shipman (age 21) · Rudy van Heydoorn (age 21) · Omar Martinez (age 21)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 208 proj PA

wRC+†60

AVG/OBP/SLG.185 / .275 / .273

PA208

HR2

K%29

BB%10

ISO89

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 20 / POW 30

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT20

scouting grade only

POWER30

scouting grade only

EYE60

scouting grade only

SPEED40

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2023	17	ROK	DSL Nationals	—	114	99	18	5	0	0	13	44	1	0	3	182	283	232	516	51	321	39	11	246	-8	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK	FCL Nationals	—	146	114	20	4	1	0	27	51	4	0	0	175	352	228	580	53	312	35	18	288	14	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK	FCL Nationals	—	179	144	20	6	0	4	30	59	5	2	2	139	307	264	571	125	198	33	17	278	1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	A	Fredericksburg Nationals	—	183	153	40	8	2	3	29	57	1	4	1	261	383	399	781	137	398	31	16	356	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	ROK	FCL Nationals	—	39	30	8	4	0	2	8	10	1	0	0	267	436	600	1.036	333	333	26	21	447	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Nationals	—	114	102	11	3	0	0	10	52	1	0	3	108	195	137	332	29	207	46	9	156	-8	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	FCL Nationals	—	146	123	14	3	1	0	18	74	4	0	0	114	248	154	403	41	255	51	12	189	14	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	FCL Nationals	—	179	156	13	3	0	2	18	85	5	2	2	83	201	141	342	58	157	47	10	169	1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	—	183	161	33	6	2	2	21	78	1	4	1	205	301	304	605	99	373	43	11	270	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	ROK MLE	FCL Nationals	—	39	33	6	3	0	1	5	14	1	0	0	182	308	364	671	182	244	36	13	298	88	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Nationals	—	114	102	11	3	0	0	10	52	1	0	3	108	195	137	332	29	216	46	9	156	-8	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL Nationals	—	114	99	18	5	0	0	13	44	1	0	3	182	283	232	516	51	321	39	11	246	-8	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	FCL Nationals	—	146	123	14	3	1	0	18	74	4	0	0	114	248	154	403	41	280	51	12	189	14	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	FCL Nationals	—	146	114	20	4	1	0	27	51	4	0	0	175	352	228	580	53	312	35	18	288	14	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	FCL Nationals	—	179	156	13	3	0	2	18	85	5	2	2	83	201	141	342	58	159	47	10	169	1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	FCL Nationals	—	179	144	20	6	0	4	30	59	5	2	2	139	307	264	571	125	198	33	17	278	1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	A MLE	2 teams	—	222	194	39	9	2	4	26	92	2	4	1	201	302	330	632	129	357	41	12	275	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	A RAW	2 teams	—	222	183	48	12	2	5	37	67	2	4	1	262	392	432	824	169	387	30	17	372	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Nationals	—	114	102	11	3	0	0	10	52	1	0	3	108	195	137	332	29	207	46	9	156	-8	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	FCL Nationals	—	146	123	14	3	1	0	18	74	4	0	0	114	248	154	403	41	255	51	12	189	14	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	FCL Nationals	—	179	154	13	3	0	2	18	85	5	2	2	84	201	143	344	58	157	47	10	169	1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	A MLE	2 teams	—	222	192	39	9	2	4	26	92	2	4	1	203	302	333	635	130	350	41	12	275	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	18	ROK MLE	FCL Nationals	—	146	123	14	3	1	0	18	74	4	0	0	114	248	154	403	41	255	51	12	189	14	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	FCL Nationals	—	179	154	13	3	0	2	18	85	5	2	2	84	201	143	344	58	157	47	10	169	1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	A MLE	2 teams	—	222	192	39	9	2	4	26	92	2	4	1	203	302	333	635	130	350	41	12	275	72	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	21	MLB MLE	WSH	0%	332	293	55	11	2	4	33	98	3	5	1	187	277	276	553	89	262	30	10	256	60	-16	+1	+0	-2	+7	-0.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	WSH	34%	281	248	47	9	1	4	28	81	3	4	1	193	283	293	576	101	265	29	10	265	66	-11	+0	+0	-2	+6	-0.7
2028	22	MLB CTX	WSH	34%	97	86	15	3	0	1	10	28	1	1	0	192	283	292	574	99	264	29	10	265	66	-4	+0	+0	-1	+2	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	97	86	15	3	0	1	10	28	1	1	0	174	268	244	512	70	246	29	10	265	42	-4	+0	+0	-1	+2	-0.2
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	576	101	20	0	7	67	188	7	7	0	175	269	247	516	71	247	29	10	265	42	-27	+1	+0	-4	+14	-1.5
Career	—	MLE		—	1150	1006	158	34	5	12	121	445	17	13	8	157	259	237	495	80	264	39	11	230	42	-21	+1	+0	-3	+11	-1.3
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	569	89	19	3	7	68	252	10	7	5	156	258	237	495	81	263	39	10	230	42	-29	+1	+0	-4	+14	-1.8

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Michael Saunderslast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 2,711 PA	4.1	2,711	81	55	233	305	399	-12	-13	4.1	4.5
/162	664	20	13	-2.9	-3.2	1.0	pk7: 5
#2Sam Fuld'07-'15 * career totals — 6 seasons, 1,535 PA	2.3	1,535	12	67	230*	314*	336*	-10	+29	3.7	4.0
/162	664	5	29	-4.3	+12.7	1.6	pk7: 4
#3Jake Cavelast yr '24 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,564 PA	2.4	1,564	45	13	236	292	400	-11	-6	1.3	1.3
/162	664	19	6	-4.5	-2.5	0.6	pk7: 1
#4James Mouton'94-'01 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,795 PA	2.7	1,795	18	109	235*	314*	329*	-11	-0	0.7	1.0
/162	664	7	40	-4.2	-0.1	0.3	pk7: 1
#5Jimmy Stewart'63-'73 * career totals — 8 seasons, 1,602 PA	2.4	1,602	8	38	235*	309*	329*	-1	+2	-0.2	0.5
/162	664	3	16	-0.4	+0.7	-0.1	pk7: 1
#6Dave McCarty'93-'05 * career totals — 9 seasons, 1,647 PA	2.5	1,647	36	9	233*	295*	365*	-26	+16	-1.1	0.5
/162	664	15	4	-10.5	+6.6	-0.4	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 1 projected seasons	0.5	305	4	4	189	277	283	-2	+0	-0.7	-0.3
/162	664	8	10	-4.0	+0.0	-1.5	pk7: 0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Elian Soto (OGILVIE)	21	20	30	40	60	185/275/273	88	262	2	3	29%	10%	60	-0.6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Aaron Shipman 2013 · A	21	41→39	35→30	44→50	49	190/271/250	60	279	2	9	30%	10%	52	-2.2	227/310/295	68	314	2	16	25%	10%	76	-0.4	246/336/306	60	332	1	21	23%	11%	84	+0.1
✕Rudy van Heydoorn 2010 · A	21	31	39→40	40→50	43	157/245/233	76	238	7	8	35%	8%	39	-3.1	186/267/280	94	282	8	5	34%	9%	57	-1.8	172/284/270	98	232	9	2	27%	12%	64	-0.5
✕Omar Martinez 2022 · A	21	38→37	40→45	40	50	183/281/271	88	263	8	4	31%	10%	61	-1.5	196/279/313	117	276	13	5	32%	9%	70	-0.9	176/253/289	113	268	15	1	38%	8%	53	-1.3
✕Daury Arias 2023 · A	21	37→38	41→40	46→45	52	185/276/283	98	231	9	8	23%	10%	62	-1.4	181/255/259	78	262	6	9	31%	8%	48	-2.5	161/238/228	67	236	5	9	32%	8%	31	-1.9
✕Michael De La Cruz 2016 · A	20	40	36→40	45→50	46	190/261/259	69	270	4	9	29%	8%	50	-2.3	191/256/256	65	306	3	10	35%	7%	47	-2.6	156/231/187	31	268	0	14	38%	8%	19	-1.5
✕Jaden Rudd 2023 · A	20	39→36	39→30	49→50	49	187/279/277	90	259	6	12	28%	9%	61	-1.5	182/288/248	66	288	3	14	34%	10%	59	-1.6	160/281/212	51	264	2	16	35%	11%	47	-1.3
✕Nelson B Alvarez 2017 · A	21	40	37→40	42→40	52	190/273/265	75	243	4	3	22%	10%	56	-1.9	168/255/225	57	234	3	6	27%	10%	40	-3.0	103/211/125	22	148	2	6	28%	11%	2	-1.4
✕Gabriel Moncada 2023 · A	21	42→41	41→45	43→40	46	202/284/303	100	289	8	5	31%	9%	69	-0.9	190/262/290	100	292	9	3	35%	8%	57	-1.8	172/243/262	90	267	8	1	36%	8%	42	-1.5
✕Jose Meza 2024 · A	21	43→42	39→40	44→50	50	203/296/287	84	284	7	7	29%	10%	70	-0.8	197/287/295	98	292	9	10	33%	10%	69	-0.9	186/278/281	95	274	9	12	33%	9%	61	-1.1
✕Josh Sale 2012 · A	21	37	40→45	46→40	43	185/236/280	95	238	7	6	25%	6%	45	-2.7	206/275/317	111	300	10	6	32%	8%	68	-1.0	193/270/308	115	299	12	4	36%	9%	64	-0.7
✕Luis Sanchez 2008 · A	21	37	36→30	45→40	45	179/256/239	60	261	4	7	31%	8%	44	-2.8	203/263/257	54	283	2	4	27%	7%	49	-2.4	198/256/242	45	274	1	2	26%	7%	41	-1.4
✕Vicmal De La Cruz 2014 · A	20	38	38→40	47→50	40	185/239/260	76	260	6	5	30%	6%	41	-3.0	185/243/256	71	278	3	6	32%	6%	42	-2.9	144/211/202	57	222	0	6	32%	6%	17	-1.5
✕Luis Mendez 2024 · A	21	38	38→40	47→50	43	182/254/259	77	275	6	10	34%	8%	47	-2.5	193/255/274	81	270	5	12	28%	7%	50	-2.3	187/247/263	77	253	5	13	27%	7%	43	-1.2
✕Jacob Pearson 2019 · A	21	39	39→40	45→50	40	192/245/278	86	270	7	8	31%	6%	47	-2.5	194/249/286	92	266	7	11	28%	7%	51	-2.3	165/232/259	94	229	8	19	30%	7%	37	-1.2
✕Wilmer Oberto 2013 · A	20	37	39→45	43→45	50	180/265/262	82	221	6	7	21%	8%	53	-2.1	201/259/306	105	271	9	4	28%	6%	59	-1.6	195/244/312	117	267	11	0	30%	5%	54	-0.6
✕Branden Becker 2018 · A	21	41	35→40	40→30	41	196/240/250	53	255	2	4	23%	5%	38	-3.2	230/272/305	75	318	5	4	28%	5%	63	-1.3	241/280/307	66	332	6	1	28%	4%	63	-0.8
✕Willy Diaz 2015 · A	21	33	35→40	45→40	50	160/258/217	57	223	3	5	27%	10%	41	-3.0	176/256/247	71	278	4	4	35%	8%	46	-2.6	168/246/241	74	269	4	2	36%	8%	39	-1.1
✕Henry Pena 2010 · A	19	37	37→40	45	49	177/263/255	78	261	4	5	31%	10%	51	-2.3	198/271/294	96	333	7	6	39%	9%	61	-1.5	204/277/339	135	307	13	8	35%	8%	70	-0.1
✕Franklin Tineo 2016 · A	21	34	36→40	41→50	50	164/251/229	65	218	4	7	25%	9%	40	-3.0	171/250/245	74	225	5	10	24%	8%	43	-2.8	151/236/222	71	188	5	13	21%	9%	31	-1.3
✕Je'Von Ward 2021 · A	21	43→37	37→45	47→50	42	199/261/272	74	301	4	8	33%	8%	52	-2.2	202/251/297	95	324	8	10	37%	6%	54	-2.0	195/284/320	125	290	14	8	35%	11%	73	-0.3

Elian Soto

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps