Jesus Flores — OGILVIE

Jesus Flores P Wisconsin Timber Rattlers

Age 22 RHP 6'2" / 180 lbs A+

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 22 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 121113vR 105

ERA4.64

FIP4.64

K%20.8%

BB%10.5%

K-BB%10.3%

ROS IP22

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 22 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Brewers 2	6	6	21	85	16	8	1	100%	3.6	12.8%	11.8%	1.0%	0.9%	3.80	3.98	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	DSL Brewers 2	6	6	21	85	16	8	1	100%	3.6	18.8%	9.4%	9.4%	1.2%	3.80	3.33	—
2024	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	2	35	156	37	19	0	15%	2.7	16.7%	14.6%	2.1%	0.0%	3.63	3.54	—
2024	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	2	35	156	37	19	0	15%	2.7	16.7%	14.6%	2.1%	0.0%	3.63	3.54	—
2024	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	13	2	35	156	37	19	0	15%	2.7	23.7%	12.2%	11.5%	0.0%	3.63	2.61	—
2025	20	A MLE	Carolina Mudcats	16	0	39	166	40	14	2	0%	2.4	17.8%	10.0%	7.9%	1.3%	3.03	3.56	—
2025	20	A MLE	Carolina Mudcats	16	0	39	166	40	14	2	0%	2.4	17.8%	10.0%	7.9%	1.3%	3.03	3.56	—
2025	20	A RAW	Carolina Mudcats	16	0	39	166	40	14	2	0%	2.4	24.1%	8.4%	15.7%	1.2%	3.03	2.79	—
2026	21	A+ MLE	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	5	0	5	28	3	9	0	0%	0.9	10.7%	32.1%	-21.4%	0.0%	5.79	6.27	—
2026	21	A+ MLE	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	5	0	5	28	3	9	0	0%	0.9	10.7%	32.1%	-21.4%	0.0%	5.79	6.27	—
2026	21	A+ RAW	Wisconsin Timber Rattlers	5	0	5	28	3	9	0	0%	0.9	10.7%	32.1%	-21.4%	0.0%	5.79	7.60	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	22	MLB	MIL	21	0	22	93	19	10	3	0%	1.0	20.8%	10.5%	10.3%	2.9%	4.64	4.64	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	MIL	34	0	36	152	33	15	4	0%	1.1	21.8%	9.7%	12.0%	2.9%	4.51	4.44	+0.0
2028	23	MLB CTX	MIL	17	0	18	76	17	7	2	0%	1.1	21.8%	9.7%	12.0%	2.9%	4.51	4.44	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		17	0	18	75	16	7	2	0%	1.0	21.8%	9.7%	12.0%	2.9%	4.51	4.06	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	179	78	22	0%	1.1	21.8%	9.7%	12.0%	2.9%	4.51	4.06	+1.2
Career	—	MLE		40	8	99	435	70	58	3	20%	2.5	16.0%	13.4%	2.6%	0.7%	3.53	3.81	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		81	16	200	876	140	118	6	20%	2.5	16.0%	13.4%	2.6%	0.7%	3.53	3.81	+0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jesus Flores (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.64	20.8%	10.5%	2.9%	—	4.44	21.8%	12.0%	36	-0.20	—	—	—
Kyle Zurak R 2017 · 3.96 FIP	22	SU	3.96	21.2%	9.4%	2.6%	.302	3.42	16.7%	7.5%	121	-0.54	3.20	181	92
Zac Ryan R 2017 · 3.83 FIP	23	SU	3.83	20.5%	10.9%	2.0%	.233	3.93	21.6%	6.9%	124	+0.10	3.83	184	85
Brandon Beckel R 2024 · 3.75 FIP	22	SU	3.75	19.4%	10.3%	1.8%	.250	4.23	19.5%	10.5%	147	+0.48	3.75	194	84
Luis Romero R 2017 · 5.00 FIP	23	SU	5.00	22.1%	11.9%	4.1%	.367	4.26	21.6%	12.5%	132	-0.74	4.00	293	84
Todd Peterson R 2021 · 5.11 FIP	23	SW	5.11	18.4%	10.3%	4.1%	.279	4.83	15.0%	4.3%	124	-0.28	4.45	175	84
Ben Anderson R 2021 · 4.84 FIP	23	SW	4.84	19.8%	9.4%	4.0%	.309	4.02	16.2%	7.7%	147	-0.82	3.80	399	84
Jonathan Papelbon R 2005 · 3.93 FIP	24	SW	3.93	23.0%	10.1%	2.7%	.305	1.90	31.3%	26.8%	196	-2.03	1.33	726	84
Billy Corcoran R 2023 · 4.20 FIP	23	SW	4.20	19.5%	10.0%	2.7%	.308	5.26	16.4%	8.7%	208	+1.06	4.20	277	84
Cody Palmquist R 2016 · 4.31 FIP	22	SU	4.31	21.9%	9.0%	3.5%	.278	6.02	14.7%	7.1%	62	+1.71	4.31	104	84
Joangel Gonzalez R 2024 · 4.23 FIP	20	SU	4.23	18.3%	11.7%	2.1%	.312	5.15	18.3%	2.5%	116	+0.92	3.93	151	84
Brendan Collins R 2022 · 3.67 FIP	22	SW	3.67	21.8%	10.3%	2.0%	.294	3.86	20.2%	5.1%	54	+0.19	3.67	122	83
Ryan Conroy R 2021 · 4.01 FIP	24	SU	4.01	22.2%	9.8%	2.8%	.353	4.75	19.3%	6.7%	54	+0.74	4.01	106	83
Alec Barger R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SW	4.55	21.7%	13.6%	2.8%	.289	4.17	21.3%	9.4%	148	-0.38	3.85	242	82
Colby Morris R 2021 · 4.11 FIP	24	SU	4.11	20.4%	10.7%	2.5%	.291	5.76	16.2%	4.4%	54	+1.65	4.11	105	82
Justin Lasko R 2019 · 3.66 FIP	22	SU	3.66	17.1%	8.6%	1.7%	.286	4.62	15.8%	8.1%	152	+0.96	3.66	173	82
Heath Holder R 2016 · 4.16 FIP	23	SU	4.16	21.1%	10.1%	2.8%	.287	3.30	22.3%	13.1%	247	-0.86	2.94	367	82
Thomas Balboni Jr. R 2023 · 3.99 FIP	23	SU	3.99	17.5%	10.9%	1.8%	.331	3.47	28.1%	14.3%	79	-0.52	2.99	122	82
Owen Holt R 2022 · 3.72 FIP	23	SU	3.72	20.7%	10.2%	2.0%	.258	4.51	18.7%	6.4%	107	+0.79	3.72	145	82
Reece Karalus R 2016 · 4.80 FIP	22	SU	4.80	18.5%	8.6%	4.0%	.298	4.81	14.8%	4.1%	103	+0.01	4.73	149	82
Jayson McKinley R 2017 · 4.39 FIP	23	SU	4.39	17.5%	11.4%	2.4%	.308	3.60	20.4%	11.3%	134	-0.79	2.35	173	81

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 754 reliever careers (1990-2025).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	29	21.4%	10.0%	1.11	4.56
Yency Almonte ('24)	1.1	45	22.5%	9.9%	1.13	4.44
Sam Long ('25)	1.1	42	19.5%	9.7%	1.28	4.65
Ian Krol ('21)	1.0	42	21.2%	8.8%	1.25	4.49
Manny Acosta ('12)	1.2	41	20.5%	10.9%	1.09	3.99
Kevin Quackenbush ('21)	1.0	52	21.0%	9.2%	1.04	4.41
Chris Ray ('11)	1.4	47	19.1%	10.2%	1.12	4.10