Jesus Flores
P
Wisconsin Timber Rattlers
+0.2
WAR
Age 21
RHP
6'2" / 180 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 0.4 · 2029
ERA4.39
FIP4.39
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%22.0%
BB%9.8%
K-BB%12.2%
IP30
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.4peak
2029
K†5060
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 18 | ROK | DSL Brewers 2 | 6 | 6 | 21 | 85 | 16 | 8 | 1 | 12.8% | 11.8% | 0.7% | 3.80 | 3.87 | +0.3 |
| 2024 | 19 | A | Carolina Mudcats | 13 | 2 | 35 | 156 | 37 | 19 | 0 | 16.7% | 14.6% | 0.0% | 3.63 | 3.54 | +0.6 |
| 2025 | 20 | A | Carolina Mudcats | 16 | 0 | 39 | 166 | 40 | 14 | 2 | 17.8% | 10.0% | 1.3% | 3.03 | 3.58 | +0.6 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 21 | A+ | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | 3 | 0 | 4 | 22 | 3 | 5 | 0 | — | — | — | 6.23 | — | — |
| ROS | 21 | MLB | MIL | 30 | — | 30 | 128 | 28 | 13 | 4 | 22.0% | 9.8% | 2.8% | 4.39 | 4.39 | +0.2 |
| 2026 Total | 21 | MLB | MIL | — | — | 35 | 150 | 31 | 18 | 4 | 20.8% | 11.7% | 2.4% | 4.62 | 3.84 | +0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | MIL | 32 | — | 32 | 135 | 31 | 12 | 4 | 23.0% | 9.1% | 2.7% | 4.27 | 4.19 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB | MIL | 33 | — | 33 | 140 | 33 | 12 | 4 | 23.8% | 8.7% | 2.7% | 4.15 | 4.06 | +0.3 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB | MIL | 34 | — | 34 | 143 | 35 | 12 | 4 | 24.3% | 8.5% | 2.7% | 4.05 | 3.98 | +0.4 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB | MIL | 34 | — | 34 | 145 | 36 | 12 | 4 | 24.6% | 8.4% | 2.7% | 3.98 | 3.93 | +0.4 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB | MIL | 34 | — | 34 | 145 | 36 | 12 | 4 | 24.8% | 8.3% | 2.7% | 3.94 | 3.91 | +0.4 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB | MIL | 34 | — | 34 | 144 | 36 | 12 | 4 | 24.9% | 8.3% | 2.7% | 3.93 | 3.92 | +0.4 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB | MIL | 34 | — | 34 | 141 | 35 | 12 | 4 | 24.8% | 8.4% | 2.7% | 3.94 | 3.94 | +0.4 |
| 2034 | 29 | MLB | MIL | 33 | — | 33 | 138 | 34 | 12 | 4 | 24.7% | 8.5% | 2.8% | 3.97 | 3.99 | +0.4 |
| 2035 | 30 | MLB | MIL | 32 | — | 32 | 134 | 33 | 11 | 4 | 24.5% | 8.6% | 2.8% | 4.02 | 4.05 | +0.3 |
| 2036 | 31 | MLB | MIL | 31 | — | 31 | 129 | 31 | 11 | 4 | 24.3% | 8.7% | 2.9% | 4.08 | 4.13 | +0.3 |
| 2037 | 32 | MLB | MIL | 29 | — | 29 | 124 | 30 | 11 | 4 | 24.0% | 8.8% | 3.0% | 4.16 | 4.21 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 38 | 8 | 99 | 429 | 70 | 54 | 3 | 16.2% | 12.7% | 0.6% | 3.55 | 3.69 | +1.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 77 | 16 | 200 | 867 | 141 | 109 | 6 | 16.2% | 12.7% | 0.6% | 3.55 | 3.69 | +3.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jesus Flores (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.39 | 22.0% | 9.8% | 2.8% | — | 4.07 | 23.7% | 14.9% | 99 | -0.32 | — | — | — |
| Kyle Zurak R 2027 · 3.96 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.96 | 21.2% | 9.4% | 2.6% | .302 | 3.42 | 16.7% | 7.5% | 121 | -0.54 | 3.19 | 181 | 95 |
| Cody Palmquist R 2027 · 4.20 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.20 | 21.9% | 9.0% | 3.3% | .278 | 5.95 | 14.7% | 7.1% | 62 | +1.75 | 4.20 | 104 | 92 |
| Nick Lockhart R 2026 · 4.40 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.40 | 22.0% | 9.9% | 3.5% | .275 | 4.62 | 16.1% | 5.5% | 43 | +0.22 | 4.40 | 140 | 91 |
| Sandy Lugo R 2026 · 3.86 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.86 | 20.7% | 9.5% | 2.4% | .352 | 3.96 | 23.6% | 12.5% | 119 | +0.10 | 3.46 | 146 | 91 |
| Heath Holder R 2028 · 4.16 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.16 | 21.1% | 10.1% | 2.8% | .287 | 3.30 | 22.3% | 13.1% | 247 | -0.86 | 2.92 | 367 | 90 |
| Michael Gomez R 2027 · 3.33 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.33 | 22.6% | 9.2% | 1.8% | .283 | 3.80 | 17.9% | 8.3% | 110 | +0.47 | 3.33 | 286 | 90 |
| Addison Russ R 2027 · 3.55 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.55 | 22.2% | 7.9% | 2.4% | .324 | 3.08 | 25.6% | 17.5% | 121 | -0.47 | 3.07 | 194 | 90 |
| Peyton Williams R 2028 · 3.66 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.66 | 22.3% | 10.3% | 2.1% | .311 | 4.87 | 22.2% | 10.2% | 100 | +1.21 | 3.66 | 123 | 89 |
| Danny Dopico R 2026 · 3.87 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.87 | 25.4% | 10.8% | 2.8% | .333 | 3.88 | 22.8% | 8.1% | 173 | +0.01 | 3.00 | 318 | 89 |
| Austin Smith R 2028 · 3.85 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.85 | 22.7% | 10.0% | 2.6% | .274 | 5.19 | 16.3% | 0.7% | 52 | +1.34 | 3.85 | 100 | 89 |
| Gerlin Rosario R 2026 · 3.79 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.79 | 20.3% | 9.1% | 2.3% | .294 | 4.02 | 20.5% | 8.9% | 111 | +0.23 | 2.94 | 206 | 88 |
| Kenny Oakley R 2027 · 3.50 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.50 | 23.8% | 9.1% | 2.3% | .348 | 3.89 | 17.3% | 7.8% | 115 | +0.39 | 3.18 | 144 | 88 |
| Jonathan Stiever R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.39 | 22.9% | 9.7% | 3.6% | .308 | 4.29 | 20.7% | 14.2% | 219 | -0.10 | 4.28 | 247 | 88 |
| Gabe Bierman R 2026 · 4.83 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.83 | 21.3% | 11.8% | 3.7% | .277 | 4.51 | 16.2% | 4.0% | 187 | -0.32 | 4.03 | 266 | 88 |
| Chad Donato R 2027 · 3.85 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.85 | 20.9% | 11.4% | 2.0% | .333 | 3.99 | 21.4% | 12.6% | 184 | +0.14 | 2.89 | 439 | 88 |
| Chris Gau R 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.76 | 20.0% | 8.6% | 4.1% | .290 | 3.18 | 29.5% | 23.5% | 37 | -1.58 | 2.98 | 211 | 88 |
| Mason Fox R 2026 · 3.59 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.59 | 21.9% | 11.5% | 1.6% | .260 | 6.61 | 21.3% | 4.8% | 30 | +3.02 | 3.59 | 112 | 88 |
| Scott Williams R 2026 · 3.36 FIP | 21 | SU | 3.36 | 22.0% | 8.6% | 1.9% | .238 | 3.68 | 19.3% | 10.5% | 76 | +0.32 | 2.89 | 119 | 88 |
| Owen Holt R 2028 · 3.81 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.81 | 20.7% | 10.2% | 2.1% | .258 | 4.53 | 18.7% | 6.4% | 107 | +0.72 | 3.81 | 145 | 88 |
| Chad Patrick R 2028 · 3.82 FIP | 23 | SU | 3.82 | 20.3% | 9.9% | 2.1% | .315 | 4.23 | 22.3% | 13.8% | 422 | +0.41 | 3.72 | 483 | 88 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2030
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2035
First FA Year 2036
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.9M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.9M | +0.4 | $2M | +$1.0M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +0.4 | $2M | +$1.0M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.8M | +0.4 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.7M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.3 | $2M | +$0.1M |
| Totals | $6M | $11M | +$5M | ||