Angel Liranzo — OGILVIE

Angel Liranzo P FCL Phillies

Age 19 LHP 6'1" / 172 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 1.4 · 2035

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 47 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 125133vR 141

ERA5.67

FIP5.67

K%11.7%

BB%11.8%

K-BB%-0.1%

ROS IP48

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 47 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$5M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3030

CTRL4545

CMD3535

K†3050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.8M	+$0.3M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.2M
2034	Arb-1	$2M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.0M (cut)
2035	Arb-2	$3M	+0.4	$0.8M	+$0.0M (cut)
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$3M	+$0.5M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	16	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies White	10	4	30	107	30	8	0	40%	3.0	19.1%	9.3%	9.7%	0.0%	0.89	2.67	—
2023	16	ROK MLE	DSL Phillies White	10	4	30	107	30	8	0	40%	3.0	19.1%	9.3%	9.7%	0.0%	0.89	2.67	—
2023	16	ROK RAW	DSL Phillies White	10	4	30	107	30	8	0	40%	3.0	28.0%	7.5%	20.6%	0.0%	0.89	1.91	—
2024	17	A MLE	Clearwater Threshers	1	0	2	11	2	3	0	0%	2.3	18.2%	27.3%	-9.1%	0.0%	3.86	5.02	—
2024	17	A MLE	Clearwater Threshers	1	0	2	11	2	3	0	0%	2.3	18.2%	27.3%	-9.1%	0.0%	3.86	5.02	—
2024	17	A RAW	Clearwater Threshers	1	0	2	11	2	3	0	0%	2.3	18.2%	27.3%	-9.1%	0.0%	3.86	5.24	—
2025	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	14	74	330	59	28	9	82%	4.4	12.4%	10.4%	2.0%	3.9%	3.87	5.49	—
2025	18	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	14	74	330	59	28	9	82%	4.4	12.4%	10.4%	2.0%	3.9%	3.87	5.49	—
2025	18	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	14	74	330	59	28	9	82%	4.4	17.9%	8.5%	9.4%	2.7%	3.87	4.22	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	19	A MLE	Clearwater Threshers	15	11	49	238	54	29	9	73%	3.2	16.0%	14.4%	1.6%	4.4%	7.03	5.98	—
YTD	19	A MLE	Clearwater Threshers	15	11	49	238	54	29	9	73%	3.2	16.0%	14.4%	1.6%	4.4%	7.03	5.98	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	19	ROK RAW	PHI	11	10	39	191	45	22	6	91%	3.6	23.6%	11.5%	12.0%	3.1%	6.41	4.29	—
2026	19	A RAW	PHI	4	1	9	47	9	7	3	25%	2.3	19.1%	14.9%	4.3%	6.4%	9.64	6.87	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	20	MLB MLE	PHI	14	14	70	296	42	33	9	100%	5.0	14.2%	11.2%	3.0%	3.0%	5.43	5.35	-0.4
2028	21	MLB MLE	PHI	15	15	74	311	49	34	9	100%	4.9	15.9%	10.8%	5.1%	3.0%	5.22	5.13	-0.2
2029	22	MLB MLE	PHI	15	15	77	327	57	34	9	100%	5.2	17.4%	10.3%	7.1%	2.9%	5.01	4.90	0.0
2030	23	MLB MLE	PHI	15	15	80	339	62	34	10	100%	5.4	18.4%	10.0%	8.4%	2.9%	4.85	4.76	+0.1
2031	24	MLB MLE	PHI	15	15	82	347	66	34	10	100%	5.5	18.9%	9.8%	9.2%	2.8%	4.74	4.67	+0.2
2032	25	MLB MLE	PHI	14	14	83	352	68	34	10	100%	6.0	19.3%	9.6%	9.7%	2.8%	4.66	4.61	+0.3
2033	26	MLB MLE	PHI	14	14	83	352	69	34	10	100%	6.0	19.5%	9.6%	9.9%	2.8%	4.62	4.59	+0.3
2034	27	MLB MLE	PHI	14	14	82	347	68	33	10	100%	5.9	19.5%	9.7%	9.9%	2.9%	4.62	4.62	+0.3
2035	28	MLB MLE	PHI	13	13	80	336	72	30	10	100%	6.1	21.4%	9.0%	12.4%	3.0%	4.51	4.44	+0.4
2036	29	MLB MLE	PHI	13	13	76	321	68	30	10	100%	5.8	21.2%	9.2%	11.9%	3.1%	4.55	4.57	+0.3
2037	30	MLB MLE	PHI	12	12	71	301	63	29	10	100%	6.0	20.8%	9.5%	11.3%	3.3%	4.67	4.75	+0.1
2038	31	MLB MLE	PHI	11	11	67	281	57	28	10	100%	6.1	20.4%	9.9%	10.5%	3.5%	4.84	4.95	-0.0
2027	20	MLB CTX	PHI	7	7	35	148	21	17	5	100%	5.0	14.2%	11.2%	3.0%	3.2%	5.55	5.47	-0.2
2028	21	MLB CTX	PHI	11	11	54	228	36	25	7	100%	4.9	15.9%	10.8%	5.1%	3.2%	5.34	5.25	-0.1
2029	22	MLB CTX	PHI	13	13	65	274	48	28	9	100%	5.0	17.4%	10.3%	7.1%	3.1%	5.13	5.02	0.0
2030	23	MLB CTX	PHI	13	13	72	304	56	30	9	100%	5.5	18.4%	10.0%	8.4%	3.1%	4.96	4.87	+0.1
2031	24	MLB CTX	PHI	14	14	76	321	61	31	10	100%	5.4	18.9%	9.8%	9.2%	3.0%	4.85	4.78	+0.2
2032	25	MLB CTX	PHI	13	13	78	329	64	32	10	100%	6.0	19.3%	9.6%	9.7%	3.0%	4.77	4.72	+0.3
2033	26	MLB CTX	PHI	13	13	79	334	65	32	10	100%	6.1	19.5%	9.6%	9.9%	3.0%	4.73	4.70	+0.3
2034	27	MLB CTX	PHI	13	13	78	329	64	32	10	100%	6.0	19.5%	9.7%	9.9%	3.1%	4.73	4.73	+0.3
2035	28	MLB CTX	PHI	13	13	76	321	69	29	10	100%	5.8	21.4%	9.0%	12.4%	3.2%	4.63	4.56	+0.4
2036	29	MLB CTX	PHI	12	12	72	304	64	28	10	100%	6.0	21.2%	9.2%	11.9%	3.3%	4.67	4.69	+0.3
2037	30	MLB CTX	PHI	11	11	68	287	60	27	10	100%	6.2	20.8%	9.5%	11.3%	3.5%	4.80	4.88	+0.1
2038	31	MLB CTX	PHI	10	10	63	266	54	26	10	100%	6.3	20.4%	9.9%	10.5%	3.8%	4.98	5.09	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		143	143	815	3443	662	337	110	100%	5.7	19.2%	9.8%	9.4%	3.2%	4.88	4.47	+4.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		35	35	200	844	162	83	27	100%	5.7	19.2%	9.8%	9.4%	3.2%	4.88	4.47	+1.0
Career	—	MLE		43	29	156	686	101	82	23	67%	3.6	14.8%	11.9%	2.9%	3.4%	4.28	5.22	+1.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		55	37	200	881	130	105	30	67%	3.6	14.8%	11.9%	2.9%	3.4%	4.28	5.22	+0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Angel Liranzo (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.67	11.7%	11.8%	3.1%	—	5.12	15.9%	5.1%	221	-0.55	—	—	—
Wilgenis Alvarado L 2019 · 4.88 FIP	19	SP-	4.88	10.5%	11.0%	2.3%	.289	5.43	14.8%	-3.3%	80	+0.55	4.70	122	92
Jacob Heatherly L 2017 · 5.14 FIP	19	SP-	5.14	11.6%	13.8%	2.3%	.315	6.27	18.1%	-9.1%	39	+1.13	4.47	192	89
Colin Schmid L 2018 · 4.81 FIP	20	SP-	4.81	11.8%	9.7%	2.7%	.298	4.10	15.2%	5.7%	125	-0.71	3.24	191	89
Gabriel Agostini L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	19	SP-	5.14	13.5%	12.4%	2.9%	.246	5.63	9.5%	-16.8%	12	+0.49	1.97	122	87
Luis Guzman L 2015 · 4.81 FIP	19	SP-	4.81	11.7%	14.0%	1.7%	.307	4.41	14.7%	8.8%	59	-0.40	4.41	116	86
Juan Sanchez L 2019 · 4.49 FIP	18	SP-	4.49	14.2%	13.3%	1.7%	.333	3.36	24.3%	13.2%	103	-1.13	3.07	345	81
Oddanier Mosqueda L 2017 · 5.29 FIP	18	SP	5.29	11.5%	15.0%	2.3%	.354	3.74	22.8%	11.7%	52	-1.55	3.05	433	79
Juan Pablo Lopez L 2017 · 5.05 FIP	18	SP-	5.05	8.4%	13.1%	1.8%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	4.24	115	79
Matt Tenuta L 2015 · 4.96 FIP	21	SP	4.96	12.0%	9.5%	3.0%	.294	4.47	15.2%	6.4%	278	-0.49	2.85	421	78
Salvador Montano L 2015 · 5.23 FIP	21	SP-	5.23	11.5%	15.9%	2.0%	.301	4.65	21.3%	-0.0%	71	-0.58	4.44	116	77
Juan Rojas L 2023 · 5.60 FIP	19	SP-	5.60	13.5%	14.4%	3.3%	.286	4.28	16.9%	2.0%	178	-1.32	2.74	282	77
Roger Santana L 2017 · 4.74 FIP	19	SP-	4.74	11.3%	10.7%	2.2%	.336	4.84	12.4%	2.2%	59	+0.10	2.93	216	77
Max Roberts L 2017 · 4.79 FIP	20	SP-	4.79	10.7%	9.9%	2.5%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	4.27	173	77
Parker Rigler L 2017 · 6.33 FIP	22	SP-	6.33	13.8%	13.3%	5.0%	.318	4.59	14.5%	4.0%	140	-1.74	4.59	192	77
Jared Tobey L 2018 · 5.39 FIP	22	SP	5.39	11.9%	15.1%	2.5%	.289	4.05	22.3%	10.4%	97	-1.34	3.99	158	77
Luis Angel Rodriguez L 2019 · 4.48 FIP	19	SP-	4.48	14.7%	14.7%	1.4%	.313	4.70	26.0%	9.4%	95	+0.22	2.73	388	76
Jared Miller L 2015 · 5.28 FIP	21	SP	5.28	11.2%	13.2%	2.7%	.320	3.69	25.3%	10.2%	168	-1.59	2.42	228	76
Jorge Benitez L 2018 · 4.50 FIP	19	SP-	4.50	12.3%	11.8%	1.7%	.339	4.53	21.6%	3.4%	36	+0.03	3.30	314	75
Travis Seabrooke L 2017 · 4.85 FIP	21	SP-	4.85	12.0%	14.1%	1.8%	.309	4.77	14.7%	3.7%	97	-0.08	3.99	198	75
Alfredo Garcia L 2018 · 6.73 FIP	19	SP	6.73	8.4%	12.0%	5.1%	.309	4.46	18.7%	7.7%	90	-2.27	2.93	186	75

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.9	75	18.6%	10.0%	1.16	4.84
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Daniel Norris ('22)	2.8	70	21.7%	8.5%	1.37	4.70
Luis Cessa ('23)	2.1	53	18.3%	7.8%	1.40	4.43
Matt Wisler ('22)	2.5	63	20.1%	7.6%	1.40	4.59
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58