Davidxon Lara

P Jupiter Hammerheads

Age 21 RHP 5'10" / 165 lbs A

Overview

APROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2024	18	ROKLAA	22	0	33	0.55	1.55	25.2%	3.8%	—	K 17.1% · BB 4.8% · FIP 2.26
2025	19	MIX2 levels	15	0	32	5.85	2.64	19.0%	6.5%	—	K 13.4% · BB 8.5% · FIP 3.72
2026	20	MIX2 levels	30	1	47	5.55	5.31	22.3%	8.8%	—	K 16.2% · BB 10.7% · FIP 6.84
2027PROJ	21	MLBMIA	23	0	24	4.92	4.92	18.8%	9.7%	-0.1
2028PROJ49% MLB	22	MLBMIA	21	0	22	4.73	4.65	20.5%	9.0%	-0.0

Next 2 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 97%

CompsLogan Lombana (age 21) · Josnier Parra (age 21) · Chris Gau (age 21)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127119vR 110

ERA4.92

FIP4.92

K%18.8%

BB%9.7%

K-BB%9.1%

Proj IP24

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 24 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Angels	9	9	40	167	34	5	2	100%	4.4	13.8%	3.7%	10.1%	2.0%	2.70	3.49	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL Angels	9	9	40	167	34	5	2	100%	4.4	20.4%	3.0%	17.4%	1.2%	2.70	2.42	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Angels	22	0	33	131	33	5	0	0%	1.5	17.1%	4.8%	12.4%	0.0%	0.55	2.26	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Angels	22	0	33	131	33	5	0	0%	1.5	17.1%	4.8%	12.4%	0.0%	0.55	2.26	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL Angels	22	0	33	131	33	5	0	0%	1.5	25.2%	3.8%	21.4%	0.0%	0.55	1.55	—
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	0	32	153	29	10	1	0%	2.2	13.4%	8.5%	4.9%	1.2%	5.85	3.72	—
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	0	32	153	29	10	1	0%	2.2	13.4%	8.5%	4.9%	1.2%	5.85	3.72	—
2025	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	0	32	153	29	10	1	0%	2.2	19.0%	6.5%	12.4%	0.7%	5.85	2.64	—
2026	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	1	47	215	48	19	11	3%	1.6	16.2%	10.7%	5.5%	6.8%	5.55	6.84	—
2026	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	1	47	215	48	19	11	3%	1.6	16.2%	10.7%	5.5%	6.8%	5.55	6.84	—
2026	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	1	47	215	48	19	11	3%	1.6	22.3%	8.8%	13.5%	5.1%	5.55	5.31	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	21	MLB	MIA	23	0	24	101	19	10	3	0%	1.0	18.8%	9.7%	9.1%	3.3%	4.92	4.92	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	MIA	42	0	44	187	38	17	6	0%	1.1	20.5%	9.0%	11.4%	3.2%	4.73	4.65	-0.1
2028	22	MLB CTX	MIA	21	0	22	93	19	8	3	0%	1.0	20.5%	9.0%	11.4%	3.2%	4.73	4.65	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		21	0	22	92	19	8	3	0%	1.0	20.5%	9.0%	11.4%	3.2%	4.73	4.27	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	174	73	27	0%	1.1	20.5%	9.0%	11.4%	3.2%	4.73	4.27	+0.7
Career	—	MLE		76	10	152	666	101	48	20	13%	2.0	15.1%	7.3%	7.9%	3.0%	3.78	4.38	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		100	13	200	874	132	64	26	13%	2.0	15.1%	7.3%	7.9%	3.0%	3.78	4.38	-0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Davidxon Lara (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.92	18.8%	9.7%	3.3%	—	4.65	20.5%	11.4%	44	-0.27	—	—	—
Logan Lombana R 2015 · 4.63 FIP	21	SU	4.63	16.9%	10.0%	3.1%	.315	4.02	15.7%	8.1%	123	-0.61	3.80	155	90
Josnier Parra R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	21	SU	4.56	15.9%	9.8%	2.9%	.319	5.01	12.1%	2.9%	118	+0.45	3.76	150	89
Chris Gau R 2018 · 4.76 FIP	21	SU	4.76	20.0%	8.6%	4.1%	.290	3.19	29.5%	23.5%	37	-1.57	2.96	211	89
Kyle Zurak R 2017 · 3.96 FIP	22	SU	3.96	21.2%	9.4%	2.6%	.302	3.42	16.7%	7.5%	121	-0.54	3.20	181	88
Mike Morrison R 2016 · 4.86 FIP	22	SU	4.86	17.3%	10.7%	3.4%	.280	4.02	19.0%	7.1%	128	-0.84	3.36	145	88
Matt Pidich R 2018 · 4.42 FIP	23	SU	4.42	17.1%	8.3%	3.1%	.303	4.08	20.8%	13.3%	115	-0.34	4.05	196	88
Todd Peterson R 2021 · 5.11 FIP	23	SW	5.11	18.4%	10.3%	4.1%	.279	4.83	15.0%	4.3%	124	-0.28	4.45	175	87
Reece Karalus R 2016 · 4.80 FIP	22	SU	4.80	18.5%	8.6%	4.0%	.298	4.81	14.8%	4.1%	103	+0.01	4.73	149	87
Cody Palmquist R 2016 · 4.31 FIP	22	SU	4.31	21.9%	9.0%	3.5%	.278	6.02	14.7%	7.1%	62	+1.71	4.31	104	87
Joangel Gonzalez R 2024 · 4.23 FIP	20	SU	4.23	18.3%	11.7%	2.1%	.312	5.15	18.3%	2.5%	116	+0.92	3.93	151	86
Jeremy Beasley R 2017 · 4.71 FIP	21	SU	4.71	19.5%	11.6%	3.3%	.273	4.10	17.7%	8.7%	234	-0.61	3.17	337	86
Sandy Lugo R 2015 · 3.86 FIP	21	SU	3.86	20.7%	9.5%	2.4%	.352	3.98	23.6%	12.5%	119	+0.12	3.48	146	85
Heath Holder R 2016 · 4.16 FIP	23	SU	4.16	21.1%	10.1%	2.8%	.287	3.30	22.3%	13.1%	247	-0.86	2.94	367	85
Connor Eller R 2016 · 4.35 FIP	22	SU	4.35	16.7%	7.5%	3.1%	.222	4.55	10.8%	-1.2%	136	+0.20	3.79	170	85
Joseilyn Gonzalez R 2022 · 4.98 FIP	20	SU	4.98	14.5%	8.5%	3.7%	.321	5.20	14.5%	-3.2%	107	+0.22	4.98	168	85
Jake Elliott R 2016 · 3.82 FIP	21	SU	3.82	19.2%	7.1%	2.6%	.353	3.81	18.1%	10.0%	202	-0.01	2.91	354	85
Luis F. Castillo R 2016 · 4.51 FIP	21	SU	4.51	16.7%	10.5%	2.7%	.337	3.50	19.7%	12.3%	96	-1.01	2.95	254	85
Brandon Beckel R 2024 · 3.75 FIP	22	SU	3.75	19.4%	10.3%	1.8%	.250	4.23	19.5%	10.5%	147	+0.48	3.75	194	85
Nick Lockhart R 2022 · 4.44 FIP	21	SU	4.44	22.0%	9.9%	3.5%	.275	4.63	16.1%	5.5%	43	+0.19	4.44	140	84
Tyler Zombro R 2017 · 4.37 FIP	22	SU	4.37	14.6%	8.9%	2.5%	.295	2.67	15.7%	12.7%	134	-1.70	2.22	172	84

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	34	19.9%	9.3%	1.25	4.80
Sam Long ('25)	1.1	42	19.5%	9.7%	1.28	4.65
Ian Krol ('21)	1.0	42	21.2%	8.8%	1.25	4.49
Drew VerHagen ('23)	1.4	47	19.1%	9.4%	1.37	4.98
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Kevin Hickey ('81-'91, 0 WAR*)	1.2	47	17.7%*	10.2%*	1.10*	4.27*
Tom Dukes ('67-'72, -2 WAR*)	1.1	43	22.7%*	8.7%*	1.16*	5.37*