Davidxon Lara — OGILVIE

Davidxon Lara P Jupiter Hammerheads

Age 20 RHP 5'10" / 165 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 0.5 · 2031

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 18 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 116108vR 100

ERA4.36

FIP4.36

K%19.2%

BB%7.2%

K-BB%12.0%

ROS IP19

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 18 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$16M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4555

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.6M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.5M
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$3M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Angels	9	9	40	167	34	5	2	100%	4.4	13.8%	3.7%	10.1%	2.0%	2.70	3.49	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Angels	9	9	40	167	34	5	2	100%	4.4	13.8%	3.7%	10.1%	2.0%	2.70	3.49	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL Angels	9	9	40	167	34	5	2	100%	4.4	20.4%	3.0%	17.4%	1.2%	2.70	2.42	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Angels	22	0	33	131	33	5	0	0%	1.5	17.1%	4.8%	12.4%	0.0%	0.55	2.26	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Angels	22	0	33	131	33	5	0	0%	1.5	17.1%	4.8%	12.4%	0.0%	0.55	2.26	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL Angels	22	0	33	131	33	5	0	0%	1.5	25.2%	3.8%	21.4%	0.0%	0.55	1.55	—
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	0	32	153	29	10	1	0%	2.2	13.4%	8.5%	4.9%	1.2%	5.85	3.72	—
2025	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	0	32	153	29	10	1	0%	2.2	13.4%	8.5%	4.9%	1.2%	5.85	3.72	—
2025	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	0	32	153	29	10	1	0%	2.2	19.0%	6.5%	12.4%	0.7%	5.85	2.64	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	20	A MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	30	1	47	215	48	19	11	3%	1.6	16.2%	10.7%	5.5%	6.8%	5.55	6.84	—
YTD	20	A MLE	Jupiter Hammerheads	30	1	47	215	48	19	11	3%	1.6	16.2%	10.7%	5.5%	6.8%	5.55	6.84	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	20	ROK RAW	MIA	8	1	13	67	13	7	4	12%	1.7	19.4%	10.4%	9.0%	6.0%	8.10	6.06	—
2026	20	A RAW	MIA	22	0	34	148	35	12	7	0%	1.5	23.6%	8.1%	15.5%	4.7%	4.54	4.73	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	MIA	46	0	48	204	41	15	6	0%	1.1	20.3%	7.2%	13.0%	2.8%	4.28	4.24	+0.2
2028	22	MLB MLE	MIA	48	0	51	214	46	15	6	0%	1.1	21.5%	7.0%	14.5%	2.8%	4.16	4.08	+0.3
2029	23	MLB MLE	MIA	50	0	53	222	50	15	6	0%	1.1	22.3%	6.8%	15.5%	2.7%	4.05	3.97	+0.4
2030	24	MLB MLE	MIA	51	0	54	228	52	15	6	0%	1.1	22.9%	6.6%	16.2%	2.7%	3.95	3.88	+0.4
2031	25	MLB MLE	MIA	52	0	55	231	54	15	6	0%	1.1	23.3%	6.5%	16.8%	2.7%	3.88	3.83	+0.5
2032	26	MLB MLE	MIA	52	0	55	231	54	15	6	0%	1.1	23.5%	6.5%	17.0%	2.7%	3.84	3.81	+0.5
2033	27	MLB MLE	MIA	51	0	54	227	53	15	6	0%	1.1	23.4%	6.5%	16.9%	2.8%	3.84	3.84	+0.5
2027	21	MLB CTX	MIA	23	0	24	101	21	7	3	0%	1.0	20.3%	7.2%	13.0%	2.7%	4.20	4.16	+0.1
2028	22	MLB CTX	MIA	35	0	37	156	34	11	4	0%	1.1	21.5%	7.0%	14.5%	2.6%	4.08	4.00	+0.2
2029	23	MLB CTX	MIA	42	0	44	186	41	13	5	0%	1.0	22.3%	6.8%	15.5%	2.6%	3.97	3.89	+0.3
2030	24	MLB CTX	MIA	46	0	48	203	46	13	5	0%	1.0	22.9%	6.6%	16.2%	2.6%	3.88	3.81	+0.4
2031	25	MLB CTX	MIA	48	0	50	211	49	14	5	0%	1.0	23.3%	6.5%	16.8%	2.6%	3.81	3.76	+0.4
2032	26	MLB CTX	MIA	49	0	51	215	51	14	6	0%	1.0	23.5%	6.5%	17.0%	2.6%	3.77	3.74	+0.5
2033	27	MLB CTX	MIA	49	0	51	215	50	14	6	0%	1.0	23.4%	6.5%	16.9%	2.6%	3.76	3.76	+0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		291	0	305	1289	292	86	34	0%	1.0	22.7%	6.7%	16.0%	2.6%	3.89	3.46	+3.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	191	56	22	0%	1.1	22.7%	6.7%	16.0%	2.6%	3.89	3.46	+2.6
Career	—	MLE		76	10	152	666	101	48	20	13%	2.0	15.1%	7.3%	7.9%	3.0%	3.78	4.38	+2.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		100	13	200	874	132	64	26	13%	2.0	15.1%	7.3%	7.9%	3.0%	3.78	4.38	+1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Davidxon Lara (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.36	19.2%	7.2%	2.9%	—	4.09	21.4%	14.4%	152	-0.27	—	—	—
Alexander Campos R 2023 · 4.05 FIP	20	SU	4.05	17.0%	6.0%	3.0%	.281	4.66	11.1%	6.0%	135	+0.61	4.02	157	89
Jeff Bain R 2017 · 3.94 FIP	21	SU	3.94	19.7%	6.7%	3.0%	.339	4.22	19.1%	10.7%	274	+0.28	3.35	475	89
Jake Elliott R 2016 · 3.82 FIP	21	SU	3.82	19.2%	7.1%	2.6%	.353	3.81	18.1%	10.0%	202	-0.01	2.91	354	89
David Davalillo R 2023 · 3.33 FIP	20	SW	3.33	18.6%	6.8%	1.7%	.292	3.31	20.7%	12.3%	305	-0.02	2.96	322	88
Blake Workman R 2018 · 4.00 FIP	20	SU	4.00	18.9%	9.5%	2.4%	.307	3.98	23.8%	19.5%	105	-0.02	3.09	213	87
Chris Gau R 2018 · 4.76 FIP	21	SU	4.76	20.0%	8.6%	4.1%	.290	3.19	29.5%	23.5%	37	-1.57	2.96	211	87
Devon Roedahl R 2019 · 3.94 FIP	22	SU	3.94	19.7%	6.7%	3.0%	.305	4.64	16.5%	9.2%	100	+0.70	3.94	122	86
Kyle Zurak R 2017 · 3.96 FIP	22	SU	3.96	21.2%	9.4%	2.6%	.302	3.42	16.7%	7.5%	121	-0.54	3.20	181	86
Osiris German R 2018 · 4.26 FIP	19	SU	4.26	20.6%	8.7%	3.3%	.346	3.15	26.3%	15.5%	59	-1.11	3.11	187	86
Ismael Cabrera R 2015 · 3.56 FIP	21	SU	3.56	19.0%	7.4%	2.1%	.250	5.19	17.4%	6.6%	117	+1.63	3.56	133	86
Addison Russ R 2017 · 3.62 FIP	22	SU	3.62	22.2%	7.9%	2.5%	.324	3.09	25.6%	17.5%	121	-0.53	3.08	194	85
Juan Jimenez R 2015 · 3.45 FIP	21	SU	3.45	18.2%	7.2%	1.8%	.327	5.51	17.2%	2.6%	80	+2.06	3.45	115	85
Enmanuel Marcano R 2019 · 4.32 FIP	20	SU	4.32	21.1%	8.4%	3.5%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	3.84	138	85
Denny Brady R 2017 · 4.01 FIP	20	SU	4.01	18.8%	5.7%	3.2%	.368	3.29	18.7%	10.1%	124	-0.72	3.14	160	85
Kevin Coulter R 2019 · 3.27 FIP	22	SU	3.27	21.0%	7.4%	1.8%	.287	4.51	16.1%	7.6%	92	+1.24	3.27	128	85
Sandy Lugo R 2015 · 3.86 FIP	21	SU	3.86	20.7%	9.5%	2.4%	.352	3.98	23.6%	12.5%	119	+0.12	3.48	146	85
Alex Mauricio R 2017 · 3.69 FIP	20	SU	3.69	16.1%	6.9%	1.9%	.360	3.13	13.0%	4.2%	37	-0.56	3.13	189	84
J.T. Hintzen R 2018 · 3.22 FIP	22	SU	3.22	20.1%	7.0%	1.7%	.303	4.37	24.1%	15.1%	123	+1.15	3.22	205	84
Cody Palmquist R 2016 · 4.31 FIP	22	SU	4.31	21.9%	9.0%	3.5%	.278	6.02	14.7%	7.1%	62	+1.71	4.31	104	84
Kai Wynyard R 2022 · 4.27 FIP	20	SU	4.27	21.1%	9.1%	3.3%	.269	4.12	16.5%	3.9%	138	-0.15	3.32	257	84

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.9	48	22.3%	6.8%	1.07	4.01
Nick Wittgren ('23)	1.6	41	21.6%	7.0%	1.15	4.04
Chris Devenski ('24)	1.9	62	26.0%	6.9%	1.25	3.61
Craig Stammen ('22)	2.0	66	23.0%	5.4%	1.19	3.36
Adam Cimber ('24)	1.6	52	18.3%	6.6%	0.75	3.75
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79
JT Chargois ('24)	1.2	33	23.3%	9.3%	0.97	3.35