Jesus Escobar

P Visalia Rawhide

Age 21 RHP 6'0" / 150 lbs A

Overview

APROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	19	ROKARI	11	4	42	4.29	4.77	16.6%	9.6%	—	K 11.3% · BB 12.0% · FIP 6.53
2026	20	AARI	22	11	76	7.19	5.80	12.6%	12.0%	—	K 9.3% · BB 14.2% · FIP 6.83
2027PROJ	21	MLBARI	43	0	45	6.51	6.51	10.0%	16.0%	-0.9
2028PROJ49% MLB	22	MLBARI	33	0	35	6.09	5.96	13.4%	14.4%	-0.5
2029PROJ73% MLB	23	MLBARI	52	0	55	5.75	5.61	15.6%	13.4%	-0.6

Next 3 projected WAR -2.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff25Control40Command25

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 2% · didn't stick 93%

CompsMason McGwire (age 20) · Jol Concepcion (age 22) · Jhon Vergara (age 19)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 157149vR 141

ERA6.51

FIP6.51

K%10.0%

BB%16.0%

K-BB%-6.0%

Proj IP45

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 45 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF2525

CTRL4040

CMD2525

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Black	12	7	34	145	21	19	5	58%	2.8	9.8%	16.4%	-6.5%	4.6%	3.48	6.89	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL Arizona Black	12	7	34	145	21	19	5	58%	2.8	14.5%	13.1%	1.4%	3.4%	3.48	5.48	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs	3	0	3	22	2	7	0	0%	1.1	9.1%	31.8%	-22.7%	0.0%	16.20	6.36	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs	3	0	3	22	2	7	0	0%	1.1	9.1%	31.8%	-22.7%	0.0%	16.20	6.36	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	ACL D-backs	3	0	3	22	2	7	0	0%	1.1	9.1%	31.8%	-22.7%	0.0%	16.20	8.20	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs	11	4	42	187	31	18	6	36%	3.8	11.3%	12.0%	-0.8%	5.2%	4.29	6.53	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs	11	4	42	187	31	18	6	36%	3.8	11.3%	12.0%	-0.8%	5.2%	4.29	6.53	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	ACL D-backs	11	4	42	187	31	18	6	36%	3.8	16.6%	9.6%	7.0%	3.2%	4.29	4.77	—
2026	20	A MLE	Visalia Rawhide	22	11	76	341	43	41	13	50%	3.5	9.3%	14.2%	-4.9%	5.0%	7.19	6.83	—
2026	20	A MLE	Visalia Rawhide	22	11	76	341	43	41	13	50%	3.5	9.3%	14.2%	-4.9%	5.0%	7.19	6.83	—
2026	20	A RAW	Visalia Rawhide	22	11	76	341	43	41	13	50%	3.5	12.6%	12.0%	0.6%	3.8%	7.19	5.80	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	21	MLB	ARI	43	0	45	190	19	30	6	0%	1.0	10.0%	16.0%	-6.0%	3.4%	6.51	6.51	-0.9
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	ARI	69	0	72	304	41	44	10	0%	1.0	13.4%	14.4%	-0.9%	3.3%	6.09	5.96	-1.1
2029	23	MLB MLE	ARI	71	0	75	316	49	42	10	0%	1.1	15.6%	13.4%	2.2%	3.2%	5.75	5.61	-0.9
2030	24	MLB MLE	ARI	73	0	77	324	55	41	10	0%	1.1	16.9%	12.8%	4.1%	3.2%	5.52	5.40	-0.7
2031	25	MLB MLE	ARI	74	0	78	328	58	41	10	0%	1.1	17.6%	12.5%	5.1%	3.1%	5.38	5.30	-0.6
2032	26	MLB MLE	ARI	74	0	78	328	59	41	10	0%	1.1	17.9%	12.4%	5.4%	3.1%	5.31	5.27	-0.6
2033	27	MLB MLE	ARI	73	0	76	323	58	40	10	0%	1.0	17.9%	12.5%	5.4%	3.2%	5.31	5.31	-0.6
2034	28	MLB MLE	ARI	71	0	74	313	56	40	10	0%	1.0	17.7%	12.7%	5.1%	3.3%	5.36	5.39	-0.7
2035	29	MLB MLE	ARI	68	0	71	299	52	39	10	0%	1.0	17.5%	12.9%	4.6%	3.4%	5.46	5.52	-0.7
2036	30	MLB MLE	ARI	63	0	67	281	48	37	10	0%	1.1	17.2%	13.2%	4.0%	3.6%	5.60	5.70	-0.8
2028	22	MLB CTX	ARI	33	0	35	148	20	21	5	0%	1.1	13.4%	14.4%	-0.9%	3.3%	6.09	5.96	-0.5
2029	23	MLB CTX	ARI	52	0	55	232	36	31	7	0%	1.1	15.6%	13.4%	2.2%	3.2%	5.75	5.61	-0.6
2030	24	MLB CTX	ARI	61	0	64	270	46	35	9	0%	1.0	16.9%	12.8%	4.1%	3.2%	5.52	5.40	-0.6
2031	25	MLB CTX	ARI	66	0	69	291	51	36	9	0%	1.0	17.6%	12.5%	5.1%	3.1%	5.38	5.30	-0.6
2032	26	MLB CTX	ARI	68	0	71	300	54	37	9	0%	1.0	17.9%	12.4%	5.4%	3.1%	5.31	5.27	-0.6
2033	27	MLB CTX	ARI	68	0	71	300	54	37	10	0%	1.0	17.9%	12.5%	5.4%	3.2%	5.31	5.31	-0.6
2034	28	MLB CTX	ARI	66	0	69	291	52	37	10	0%	1.0	17.7%	12.7%	5.1%	3.3%	5.36	5.39	-0.6
2035	29	MLB CTX	ARI	64	0	67	283	50	36	10	0%	1.0	17.5%	12.9%	4.6%	3.4%	5.46	5.52	-0.7
2036	30	MLB CTX	ARI	60	0	63	266	46	35	10	0%	1.1	17.2%	13.2%	4.0%	3.6%	5.60	5.70	-0.8
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		537	0	564	2382	407	306	78	0%	1.1	17.1%	12.9%	4.2%	3.3%	5.49	5.08	-3.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	144	108	28	0%	1.1	17.1%	12.9%	4.2%	3.3%	5.49	5.08	-1.2
Career	—	MLE		48	22	155	695	69	102	33	46%	3.2	10.0%	14.6%	-4.7%	4.8%	5.79	6.75	-7.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		62	28	200	895	89	131	43	46%	3.2	10.0%	14.6%	-4.7%	4.8%	5.79	6.75	-2.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jesus Escobar (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.51	10.0%	16.0%	3.4%	—	5.65	15.3%	1.9%	224	-0.86	—	—	—
Mason McGwire R 2024 · 6.46 FIP	20	SP-	6.46	11.7%	21.2%	3.0%	.298	4.11	21.4%	10.7%	79	-2.35	4.11	155	85
Jol Concepcion R 2021 · 6.54 FIP	22	SW	6.54	12.2%	20.0%	3.5%	.272	4.60	23.9%	3.9%	50	-1.94	4.60	154	84
Jhon Vergara R 2019 · 5.75 FIP	19	SW	5.75	11.1%	13.1%	3.5%	.337	—	—	—	—	—	3.60	106	82
Juan Gomez R 2017 · 5.39 FIP	20	SP-	5.39	10.9%	12.6%	2.9%	.345	3.58	11.2%	-0.1%	61	-1.81	3.58	113	82
Orlando Gonzalez R 2024 · 6.34 FIP	21	SP-	6.34	13.8%	18.8%	3.7%	.155	4.18	18.9%	4.9%	71	-2.16	3.83	114	82
Seth McClung R 2003 · 5.63 FIP	22	SW	5.63	15.0%	14.4%	3.6%	.241	5.29	15.3%	2.8%	212	-0.34	2.52	430	81
Felipito Santos R 2019 · 7.57 FIP	20	SP-	7.57	4.3%	25.3%	3.0%	.358	5.32	13.7%	-5.9%	58	-2.25	4.83	106	81
Juan Perez R 2016 · 5.39 FIP	21	SW	5.39	15.4%	14.1%	3.3%	.321	4.52	10.8%	0.0%	56	-0.87	4.52	113	80
Gillian Wernet R 2018 · 5.46 FIP	19	SP-	5.46	11.2%	16.6%	2.2%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	107	79
Wirkin Estevez R 2016 · 5.39 FIP	24	SW	5.39	10.7%	13.4%	2.7%	.316	4.46	12.3%	3.5%	179	-0.93	4.37	238	79
Feliberto Bonilla R 2018 · 6.37 FIP	20	SW	6.37	9.8%	17.4%	3.4%	.296	—	—	—	—	—	5.13	151	79
Garrett Nuss R 2015 · 5.71 FIP	22	SW	5.71	14.1%	14.9%	3.5%	.352	4.58	15.0%	5.3%	92	-1.13	4.57	174	79
Torey Deshazier R 2015 · 5.45 FIP	21	SW	5.45	12.7%	12.8%	3.3%	.319	5.33	14.8%	-10.6%	41	-0.12	5.33	127	79
Erick Reynoso R 2024 · 7.34 FIP	21	SP-	7.34	13.1%	22.6%	4.5%	.226	6.10	15.5%	-7.0%	107	-1.24	6.06	180	79
Kamdyn Perry R 2024 · 5.61 FIP	18	SW	5.61	12.3%	18.4%	2.2%	.300	5.55	14.9%	1.0%	116	-0.06	5.31	142	78
Diogenes Almengo R 2016 · 6.34 FIP	21	SW	6.34	8.2%	18.3%	2.9%	.235	4.69	21.0%	5.1%	70	-1.65	2.12	242	78
Zach Willeman R 2019 · 5.57 FIP	23	SW	5.57	10.8%	15.0%	2.7%	.296	4.98	21.3%	7.8%	108	-0.59	4.05	264	78
Danny Flatt R 2024 · 6.12 FIP	20	SP-	6.12	14.5%	15.7%	4.1%	.304	5.81	13.0%	-1.9%	76	-0.31	5.37	122	78
Trey Riley R 2019 · 5.78 FIP	21	SP-	5.78	10.6%	19.0%	2.1%	.344	5.78	17.4%	5.2%	74	-0.00	4.35	227	78
Johan Moreno R 2024 · 6.25 FIP	21	SW	6.25	13.2%	16.7%	3.9%	.325	4.36	20.7%	8.0%	115	-1.89	3.09	216	78

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.6	71	16.4%	13.1%	1.27	5.59
C.J. Nitkowski ('05)	2.4	68	15.8%	11.9%	1.07	5.37
Mike Mohler ('01)	2.1	60	15.0%	12.4%	0.97	4.99
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Daryl Patterson ('68-'74, -1 WAR*)	1.2	46	18.3%*	11.2%*	1.27*	5.03*
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*