Jesus Escobar — OGILVIE

Jesus Escobar P Visalia Rawhide

Age 20 RHP 6'0" / 150 lbs A peak 0.3 · 2031

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 26 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 149141vR 133

ERA6.11

FIP6.11

K%11.4%

BB%14.8%

K-BB%-3.4%

ROS IP27

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 26 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF2525

CTRL4040

CMD2525

K†3050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Black	12	7	34	145	21	19	5	58%	2.8	9.8%	16.4%	-6.5%	4.6%	3.48	6.89	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Arizona Black	12	7	34	145	21	19	5	58%	2.8	9.8%	16.4%	-6.5%	4.6%	3.48	6.89	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL Arizona Black	12	7	34	145	21	19	5	58%	2.8	14.5%	13.1%	1.4%	3.4%	3.48	5.48	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs	3	0	3	22	2	7	0	0%	1.1	9.1%	31.8%	-22.7%	0.0%	16.20	6.36	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs	3	0	3	22	2	7	0	0%	1.1	9.1%	31.8%	-22.7%	0.0%	16.20	6.36	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	ACL D-backs	3	0	3	22	2	7	0	0%	1.1	9.1%	31.8%	-22.7%	0.0%	16.20	8.20	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs	11	4	42	187	31	18	6	36%	3.8	11.3%	12.0%	-0.8%	5.2%	4.29	6.53	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	ACL D-backs	11	4	42	187	31	18	6	36%	3.8	11.3%	12.0%	-0.8%	5.2%	4.29	6.53	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	ACL D-backs	11	4	42	187	31	18	6	36%	3.8	16.6%	9.6%	7.0%	3.2%	4.29	4.77	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	20	A MLE	Visalia Rawhide	22	11	76	341	43	41	13	50%	3.5	9.3%	14.2%	-4.9%	5.0%	7.19	6.83	—
YTD	20	A MLE	Visalia Rawhide	22	11	76	341	43	41	13	50%	3.5	9.3%	14.2%	-4.9%	5.0%	7.19	6.83	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	20	A RAW	ARI	22	11	76	341	43	41	13	50%	3.5	12.6%	12.0%	0.6%	3.8%	7.19	5.65	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	ARI	75	0	78	331	46	45	10	0%	1.0	14.0%	13.7%	0.3%	3.0%	5.80	5.71	-1.0
2028	22	MLB MLE	ARI	78	0	82	348	56	44	10	0%	1.1	16.2%	12.8%	3.4%	3.0%	5.50	5.37	-0.7
2029	23	MLB MLE	ARI	81	0	86	361	63	44	11	0%	1.1	17.5%	12.2%	5.3%	2.9%	5.27	5.16	-0.6
2030	24	MLB MLE	ARI	83	0	88	370	67	44	11	0%	1.1	18.2%	11.8%	6.4%	2.9%	5.12	5.04	-0.5
2031	25	MLB MLE	ARI	84	0	89	375	70	44	11	0%	1.1	18.6%	11.7%	6.9%	2.9%	5.04	4.98	-0.4
2032	26	MLB MLE	ARI	84	0	89	375	70	44	11	0%	1.1	18.8%	11.7%	7.1%	2.9%	4.99	4.96	-0.4
2033	27	MLB MLE	ARI	83	0	87	369	69	43	11	0%	1.1	18.8%	11.7%	7.1%	2.9%	4.99	5.00	-0.4
2034	28	MLB MLE	ARI	81	0	85	358	67	43	11	0%	1.0	18.7%	11.9%	6.8%	3.0%	5.04	5.08	-0.5
2035	29	MLB MLE	ARI	77	0	81	342	63	41	11	0%	1.1	18.4%	12.1%	6.3%	3.2%	5.14	5.21	-0.6
2036	30	MLB MLE	ARI	72	0	76	321	65	37	11	0%	1.1	20.1%	11.6%	8.5%	3.4%	5.13	5.12	-0.5
2027	21	MLB CTX	ARI	37	0	39	165	23	23	5	0%	1.1	14.0%	13.7%	0.3%	3.0%	5.80	5.71	-0.5
2028	22	MLB CTX	ARI	57	0	60	253	41	32	8	0%	1.1	16.2%	12.8%	3.4%	3.0%	5.50	5.37	-0.5
2029	23	MLB CTX	ARI	69	0	72	304	53	37	9	0%	1.0	17.5%	12.2%	5.3%	2.9%	5.27	5.16	-0.5
2030	24	MLB CTX	ARI	74	0	78	329	60	39	10	0%	1.1	18.2%	11.8%	6.4%	2.9%	5.12	5.04	-0.4
2031	25	MLB CTX	ARI	77	0	81	342	64	40	10	0%	1.1	18.6%	11.7%	6.9%	2.9%	5.04	4.98	-0.4
2032	26	MLB CTX	ARI	79	0	83	350	66	41	10	0%	1.1	18.8%	11.7%	7.1%	2.9%	4.99	4.96	-0.4
2033	27	MLB CTX	ARI	79	0	83	350	66	41	10	0%	1.1	18.8%	11.7%	7.1%	2.9%	4.99	5.00	-0.4
2034	28	MLB CTX	ARI	77	0	81	342	64	41	10	0%	1.1	18.7%	11.9%	6.8%	3.0%	5.04	5.08	-0.5
2035	29	MLB CTX	ARI	73	0	77	325	60	39	10	0%	1.1	18.4%	12.1%	6.3%	3.2%	5.14	5.21	-0.6
2036	30	MLB CTX	ARI	69	0	72	304	61	35	10	0%	1.0	20.1%	11.6%	8.5%	3.4%	5.13	5.12	-0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		691	0	726	3064	557	368	93	0%	1.1	18.2%	12.0%	6.2%	3.0%	5.16	4.74	-1.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	153	101	26	0%	1.0	18.2%	12.0%	6.2%	3.0%	5.16	4.74	-0.5
Career	—	MLE		48	22	155	695	69	102	33	46%	3.2	10.0%	14.6%	-4.7%	4.8%	5.79	6.75	-5.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		62	28	200	895	89	131	43	46%	3.2	10.0%	14.6%	-4.7%	4.8%	5.79	6.75	-1.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Jesus Escobar (OGILVIE)	—	—	6.11	11.4%	14.8%	3.1%	—	5.41	15.9%	3.1%	246	-0.70	—	—	—
Daury Cabrera R 2021 · 5.97 FIP	20	SW	5.97	9.7%	14.3%	3.4%	.290	4.15	15.1%	5.0%	44	-1.82	2.86	191	86
Jhon Vergara R 2019 · 5.75 FIP	19	SW	5.75	11.1%	13.1%	3.5%	.337	—	—	—	—	—	3.60	106	85
Erick Reynoso R 2023 · 6.37 FIP	20	SP-	6.37	10.7%	20.4%	2.9%	.305	6.44	14.9%	-7.7%	146	+0.07	6.06	180	85
Alain Pena R 2023 · 5.48 FIP	20	SP-	5.48	14.2%	13.9%	3.3%	.222	5.68	15.6%	3.5%	191	+0.20	3.66	266	84
Miguel Vinicio R 2019 · 5.69 FIP	19	SP-	5.69	13.8%	14.2%	3.5%	.327	3.99	16.9%	1.4%	47	-1.70	3.63	164	83
Juan Gomez R 2017 · 5.39 FIP	20	SP-	5.39	10.9%	12.6%	2.9%	.345	3.58	11.2%	-0.1%	61	-1.81	3.58	113	83
Marbin Montijo R 2016 · 6.37 FIP	20	SW	6.37	7.4%	15.2%	3.6%	.241	5.92	15.6%	-5.3%	51	-0.45	4.37	110	83
Karsen Lindell R 2016 · 7.17 FIP	20	SP-	7.17	4.3%	20.7%	3.3%	.326	6.72	9.8%	-9.2%	54	-0.45	4.94	112	83
Andres German R 2017 · 4.97 FIP	20	SW	4.97	8.7%	10.4%	2.3%	.302	3.04	13.4%	7.0%	73	-1.93	3.04	116	83
Lisander Brito R 2022 · 5.62 FIP	20	SP-	5.62	14.1%	15.0%	3.3%	.309	3.23	18.9%	5.3%	21	-2.39	3.23	101	83
Gillian Wernet R 2018 · 5.46 FIP	19	SP-	5.46	11.2%	16.6%	2.2%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	3.65	107	82
Juan Perez R 2016 · 5.39 FIP	21	SW	5.39	15.4%	14.1%	3.3%	.321	4.52	10.8%	0.0%	56	-0.87	4.52	113	81
Miguel Lar R 2019 · 5.16 FIP	19	SW	5.16	10.8%	14.1%	2.2%	.304	—	—	—	—	—	3.99	102	81
Vitico Valdez R 2023 · 5.68 FIP	19	SW	5.68	11.3%	19.8%	1.9%	.260	4.04	14.7%	-2.5%	43	-1.64	4.04	132	81
Mason Denaburg R 2019 · 4.98 FIP	19	SP-	4.98	12.8%	17.3%	1.4%	.328	4.95	16.3%	-0.1%	39	-0.03	4.48	151	81
Mayky Perez R 2017 · 5.34 FIP	20	SP-	5.34	8.6%	11.6%	2.7%	.321	4.42	22.9%	7.0%	84	-0.92	3.44	160	81
Denis Diaz R 2015 · 5.51 FIP	20	SP-	5.51	12.7%	16.6%	2.5%	.264	5.65	11.9%	-4.9%	92	+0.14	3.39	129	81
Dante Mendoza R 2018 · 5.90 FIP	19	SW	5.90	14.9%	14.1%	4.1%	.259	—	—	—	—	—	3.40	113	81
Samuel Vásquez R 2019 · 5.15 FIP	19	SW	5.15	13.3%	17.2%	1.8%	.220	6.13	12.7%	-8.3%	49	+0.98	4.01	273	80
Reynardo Cruz R 2022 · 5.44 FIP	20	SW	5.44	16.1%	18.2%	2.5%	.252	4.85	16.3%	-1.2%	66	-0.59	3.96	216	80

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.3	79	17.7%	12.2%	1.17	5.22
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Touki Toussaint ('24)	1.4	40	23.1%	14.1%	1.25	5.39
Daniel Norris ('22)	2.8	70	21.7%	8.5%	1.37	4.70
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32