Jesus Escobar
P
Visalia Rawhide
Age 20
RHP
6'0" / 150 lbs
A
peak 0.3 · 2027
2026 ROS PROJECTION54 act + 27 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 155145vR 136
ERA6.06
FIP6.06
K%11.4%
BB%14.3%
K-BB%-2.8%
ROS IP27
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 81 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 17 | ROK | DSL Arizona Black | 12 | 7 | 34 | 145 | 21 | 19 | 5 | 58% | 2.8 | 9.8% | 16.4% | -6.5% | 4.5% | 3.48 | 6.80 | — |
| 2023 | 17 | ROK | DSL Arizona Black | 12 | 7 | 34 | 145 | 21 | 19 | 5 | 58% | 2.8 | 14.5% | 13.1% | 1.4% | 3.4% | 3.48 | 5.48 | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK | ACL D-backs | 3 | 0 | 3 | 22 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0% | 1.1 | 9.1% | 31.8% | -22.7% | 0.0% | 16.20 | 6.36 | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK | ACL D-backs | 3 | 0 | 3 | 22 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0% | 1.1 | 9.1% | 31.8% | -22.7% | 0.0% | 16.20 | 8.20 | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK | ACL D-backs | 11 | 4 | 42 | 187 | 31 | 18 | 6 | 36% | 3.8 | 11.3% | 12.0% | -0.8% | 6.2% | 4.29 | 7.08 | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK | ACL D-backs | 11 | 4 | 42 | 187 | 31 | 18 | 6 | 36% | 3.8 | 16.6% | 9.6% | 7.0% | 3.2% | 4.29 | 4.77 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 20 | A | Visalia Rawhide | 14 | 10 | 54 | 248 | 29 | 26 | 11 | 71% | 3.9 | 8.7% | 12.4% | -3.7% | 5.8% | 7.79 | 7.10 | -1.6 |
| ROS | 20 | MLB | ARI | 5 | 5 | 27 | 113 | 13 | 16 | 4 | 100% | 5.4 | 11.4% | 14.3% | -2.8% | 3.2% | 6.06 | 6.06 | -0.5 |
| ROS | 20 | MLB | ARI | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 11.4% | 14.3% | -2.8% | 3.2% | 6.06 | 6.06 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 20 | MLB | ARI | — | — | 81 | 361 | 42 | 42 | 15 | — | — | 11.6% | 11.7% | -0.1% | 4.0% | 7.22 | 6.76 | -1.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 21 | MLB | ARI | 4 | 4 | 28 | 119 | 17 | 16 | 4 | 100% | 7.0 | 14.0% | 13.3% | 0.7% | 3.1% | 5.76 | 5.68 | -0.4 |
| 2027 | 21 | MLB | ARI | 2 | 2 | 14 | 59 | 8 | 8 | 2 | 100% | 7.0 | 14.0% | 13.3% | 0.7% | 3.1% | 5.76 | 5.68 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 2 | 2 | 14 | 58 | 8 | 8 | 2 | 100% | 6.9 | 14.0% | 13.3% | 0.7% | 3.1% | 5.76 | 5.30 | -0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 32 | 32 | 200 | 844 | 116 | 116 | 29 | 100% | 6.3 | 14.0% | 13.3% | 0.7% | 3.1% | 5.76 | 5.30 | +0.2 | ||
| Career | — | 40 | 21 | 133 | 602 | 59 | 84 | 32 | 52% | 3.3 | 9.8% | 13.9% | -4.2% | 5.4% | 5.80 | 6.99 | -2.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 60 | 32 | 200 | 903 | 88 | 126 | 49 | 52% | 3.3 | 9.8% | 13.9% | -4.2% | 5.4% | 5.80 | 6.99 | -3.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jesus Escobar (OGILVIE) | — | — | 6.06 | 11.4% | 14.3% | 3.2% | — | 5.68 | 14.0% | 0.7% | 28 | -0.38 | — | — | — |
| Juan Gomez R 2026 · 5.39 FIP | 20 | SP- | 5.39 | 10.9% | 12.6% | 2.9% | .345 | 3.58 | 11.2% | -0.1% | 61 | -1.81 | 3.58 | 113 | 87 |
| Miguel Vinicio R 2025 · 5.69 FIP | 19 | SP- | 5.69 | 13.8% | 14.2% | 3.5% | .327 | 3.98 | 16.9% | 1.4% | 47 | -1.71 | 3.63 | 164 | 87 |
| Luis Martinez-Gomez R 2027 · 5.32 FIP | 21 | SP- | 5.32 | 13.9% | 15.4% | 2.6% | .237 | 4.05 | 20.5% | 4.7% | 73 | -1.27 | 3.79 | 101 | 86 |
| Jorge Cespedes R 2026 · 4.88 FIP | 20 | SW | 4.88 | 11.2% | 12.2% | 2.1% | .284 | 4.14 | 12.9% | 5.6% | 107 | -0.74 | 3.47 | 153 | 86 |
| Denis Diaz R 2026 · 5.51 FIP | 20 | SP- | 5.51 | 12.7% | 16.6% | 2.5% | .264 | 5.84 | 11.9% | -4.9% | 92 | +0.33 | 3.39 | 129 | 86 |
| Karsen Lindell R 2026 · 7.17 FIP | 20 | SP- | 7.17 | 4.3% | 20.7% | 3.3% | .326 | 6.72 | 9.8% | -9.2% | 54 | -0.45 | 4.94 | 112 | 84 |
| Alain Pena R 2026 · 5.09 FIP | 20 | SP- | 5.09 | 14.2% | 13.9% | 2.6% | .222 | 5.50 | 15.6% | 3.5% | 190 | +0.41 | 3.66 | 265 | 84 |
| Danny Flatt R 2026 · 6.05 FIP | 20 | SP- | 6.05 | 14.5% | 15.7% | 4.0% | .304 | 5.46 | 12.5% | -1.1% | 65 | -0.59 | 5.31 | 112 | 84 |
| Erick Reynoso R 2026 · 6.52 FIP | 20 | SP- | 6.52 | 10.7% | 20.4% | 3.2% | .305 | 6.42 | 14.7% | -7.7% | 135 | -0.10 | 5.76 | 168 | 83 |
| Daury Cabrera R 2026 · 5.97 FIP | 20 | SW | 5.97 | 9.7% | 14.3% | 3.4% | .290 | 4.12 | 15.1% | 5.0% | 44 | -1.85 | 2.86 | 191 | 83 |
| Jhon Vergara R 2025 · 5.75 FIP | 19 | SW | 5.75 | 11.1% | 13.1% | 3.5% | .337 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.60 | 106 | 83 |
| Felix Cepeda R 2025 · 5.78 FIP | 19 | SP- | 5.78 | 11.5% | 14.6% | 3.3% | .297 | 5.96 | 17.0% | -6.4% | 71 | +0.18 | 3.61 | 204 | 82 |
| Andres German R 2026 · 4.97 FIP | 20 | SW | 4.97 | 8.7% | 10.4% | 2.3% | .302 | 3.04 | 13.4% | 7.0% | 73 | -1.93 | 3.04 | 116 | 82 |
| Josh Swales R 2026 · 5.43 FIP | 20 | SP- | 5.43 | 11.8% | 14.6% | 2.7% | .356 | 5.63 | 15.1% | 1.4% | 66 | +0.20 | 5.43 | 129 | 82 |
| Will Childers R 2028 · 5.30 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.30 | 11.8% | 12.1% | 3.0% | .305 | 4.22 | 20.1% | 9.0% | 143 | -1.08 | 3.50 | 202 | 82 |
| Luis Burgos R 2026 · 5.12 FIP | 20 | SP- | 5.12 | 9.9% | 13.1% | 2.2% | .323 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.14 | 114 | 82 |
| Gillian Wernet R 2025 · 5.46 FIP | 19 | SP- | 5.46 | 11.2% | 16.6% | 2.2% | .295 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.65 | 107 | 81 |
| Marbin Montijo R 2026 · 6.37 FIP | 20 | SW | 6.37 | 7.4% | 15.2% | 3.6% | .241 | 5.92 | 15.6% | -5.3% | 51 | -0.45 | 4.37 | 110 | 81 |
| Lisander Brito R 2026 · 5.60 FIP | 20 | SP- | 5.60 | 14.1% | 15.0% | 3.3% | .309 | 3.23 | 18.9% | 5.3% | 21 | -2.37 | 3.23 | 101 | 81 |
| Mason McGwire R 2026 · 6.65 FIP | 20 | SP- | 6.65 | 11.7% | 21.2% | 3.4% | .298 | 3.50 | 23.5% | 12.6% | 52 | -3.15 | 3.50 | 128 | 81 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 27 | 12.7% | 13.8% | 1.21 | 5.91 |
| Eddie Butler ('18) | 4 | 62 | 13.3% | 9.8% | 1.49 | 5.74 |
| Dylan Covey ('23) | 4 | 73 | 15.4% | 9.9% | 1.53 | 6.14 |
| Ross Detwiler ('22) | 5 | 51 | 17.3% | 9.5% | 1.76 | 6.03 |
| Roansy Contreras ('24) | 3 | 77 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 1.36 | 4.78 |
| Steven Brault ('21) | 6 | 57 | 18.8% | 11.3% | 1.00 | 4.77 |
| Touki Toussaint ('24) | 7 | 40 | 23.1% | 14.1% | 1.25 | 5.39 |