Johan Estrada — OGILVIE

Johan EstradaC DSL Tigers 1

Age 20 R/R 5'11" / 170 lbs ROK HR -8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 57 proj PA

wRC+†63

AVG/OBP/SLG.197 / .275 / .289

PA5

HR0

K%31

BB%9

ISO93

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$22M ctrl surplus

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.6	$1M	+$1.0M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.7M
2035	Arb-1	$2M	+0.4	$0.8M	+$0.0M
2036	Arb-2	$3M	+0.3	$0.6M	+$0.0M (cut)
2037	Arb-3	$2M	+0.2	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$5M		$6M	+$3M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2023	17	ROK	DSL Tigers 1	—	61	49	9	2	0	0	12	20	0	2	1	184	344	224	569	41	310	33	20	283	78	-2	+0	—	—	+1	-0.0
2024	18	ROK	DSL Tigers 1	—	92	71	15	6	1	2	21	20	0	8	2	211	391	408	800	197	265	22	23	365	133	+4	+1	—	—	+2	0.7
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Tigers 1	—	61	54	6	1	0	0	7	29	0	2	1	111	213	130	343	19	242	48	11	178	7	-7	+0	—	—	+1	-0.6
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Tigers 1	—	92	79	11	4	1	1	13	29	0	8	2	139	261	253	514	114	191	32	14	238	47	-6	+1	—	—	+2	-0.3
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Tigers 1	—	61	54	6	1	0	0	7	29	0	2	1	111	213	130	343	19	240	48	11	178	7	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL Tigers 1	—	61	49	9	2	0	0	12	20	0	2	1	184	344	224	569	41	310	33	20	283	7	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Tigers 1	—	92	79	11	4	1	1	13	29	0	8	2	139	261	253	514	114	204	32	14	238	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL Tigers 1	—	92	71	15	6	1	2	21	20	0	8	2	211	391	408	800	197	265	22	23	365	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Tigers 1	—	61	54	6	1	0	0	7	29	0	2	1	111	213	130	343	19	242	48	11	178	7	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Tigers 1	—	92	79	11	4	1	1	13	29	0	8	2	139	261	253	514	114	191	32	14	238	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Tigers 1	—	61	54	6	1	0	0	7	29	0	2	1	111	213	130	343	19	242	48	11	178	7	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Tigers 1	—	92	79	11	4	1	1	13	29	0	8	2	139	261	253	514	114	191	32	14	238	47	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 season
2026	20	MLB MLE	DET	0%	5	5	1	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	200	200	200	400		288	40	0	261	63	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	DET	34%	118	105	23	5	1	2	11	35	1	2	0	219	299	343	642	124	290	30	9	271	70	-4	+0	+0	+2	+3	0.1
2028	22	MLB MLE	DET	48%	262	234	49	10	2	4	24	77	2	5	1	209	288	321	609	111	291	29	9	278	75	-8	+1	+0	+5	+6	0.3
2029	23	MLB MLE	DET	54%	366	327	70	14	2	7	33	106	3	7	1	214	292	333	625	119	292	29	9	283	78	-10	+1	+0	+7	+8	0.6
2030	24	MLB MLE	DET	55%	437	391	84	17	3	8	40	125	3	8	2	215	293	335	628	120	293	29	9	286	80	-10	+1	+0	+8	+9	0.8
2031	25	MLB MLE	DET	56%	479	428	92	19	3	9	44	137	4	9	2	215	294	336	631	121	293	29	9	288	81	-11	+1	+0	+9	+10	0.9
2032	26	MLB MLE	DET	56%	504	449	97	20	3	10	46	144	4	9	2	216	295	341	635	125	293	29	9	289	82	-11	+1	+0	+9	+11	1.0
2033	27	MLB MLE	DET	55%	515	458	99	20	3	10	48	148	4	10	2	216	296	338	635	122	293	29	9	289	82	-11	+1	+0	+9	+11	1.1
2034	28	MLB MLE	DET	55%	518	461	99	20	3	10	48	149	4	9	2	215	294	336	631	121	292	29	9	288	81	-12	+1	-1	+9	+11	0.9
2035	29	MLB MLE	DET	53%	513	456	98	20	3	10	48	149	4	8	2	215	295	338	633	123	291	29	9	286	80	-12	+1	-1	+9	+11	0.7
2036	30	MLB MLE	DET	57%	505	448	95	19	3	9	48	148	4	8	1	212	294	328	622	116	290	29	10	283	78	-13	+1	-2	+9	+11	0.6
2037	31	MLB MLE	DET	60%	478	426	90	18	3	9	45	141	4	6	1	211	293	331	624	120	287	29	9	279	75	-14	+1	-3	+9	+10	0.3
2038	32	MLB MLE	DET	61%	447	399	82	16	3	8	42	134	3	5	1	206	286	321	607	115	284	30	9	274	71	-15	+1	-4	+8	+10	-0.0
2027	21	MLB CTX	DET	34%	41	37	8	2	0	1	4	12	0	1	0	216	293	351	644	135	285	29	10	262	70	-1	+0	+0	+1	+1	0.0
2028	22	MLB CTX	DET	48%	127	113	24	5	1	2	12	37	1	2	0	212	294	327	621	115	286	29	9	269	75	-4	+0	+0	+2	+3	0.2
2029	23	MLB CTX	DET	54%	198	176	37	8	1	3	18	57	2	4	1	210	291	318	609	108	287	29	9	273	78	-5	+0	+0	+4	+4	0.3
2030	24	MLB CTX	DET	55%	242	216	46	9	2	4	22	69	2	5	1	213	292	329	620	116	288	29	9	276	80	-6	+1	+0	+4	+5	0.5
2031	25	MLB CTX	DET	56%	268	240	51	10	2	5	24	77	2	5	1	212	289	333	623	121	288	29	9	278	81	-6	+1	+0	+5	+6	0.5
2032	26	MLB CTX	DET	56%	283	253	54	11	2	5	26	81	2	5	1	213	292	332	624	119	288	29	9	278	82	-6	+1	+0	+5	+6	0.6
2033	27	MLB CTX	DET	55%	285	255	54	11	2	5	26	82	2	5	1	212	290	329	619	118	288	29	9	278	82	-6	+1	+0	+5	+6	0.6
2034	28	MLB CTX	DET	55%	284	253	54	11	2	5	27	82	2	5	1	213	294	332	626	119	287	29	10	278	81	-6	+1	-0	+5	+6	0.5
2035	29	MLB CTX	DET	53%	274	244	51	10	2	5	26	79	2	5	1	209	290	328	618	119	286	29	9	276	80	-7	+1	-1	+5	+6	0.4
2036	30	MLB CTX	DET	57%	288	257	54	11	2	5	27	84	2	4	1	210	290	327	617	117	285	29	9	273	78	-8	+0	-1	+5	+6	0.3
2037	31	MLB CTX	DET	60%	285	254	52	10	2	5	27	84	2	4	1	205	286	319	605	114	283	29	9	269	75	-8	+0	-2	+5	+6	0.2
2038	32	MLB CTX	DET	61%	274	244	49	10	2	4	26	82	2	3	1	201	283	307	590	107	279	30	9	264	71	-9	+0	-2	+5	+6	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2849	2542	534	108	20	49	265	826	21	48	10	210	290	326	616	116	289	29	9	274	77	-73	+6	-6	+51	+62	4.0
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	580	122	25	5	11	60	188	5	11	2	210	290	328	618	117	289	29	9	274	77	-17	+1	-1	+12	+14	0.9
Career	—	MLE		—	5300	4720	996	203	33	97	497	1553	40	96	20	211	292	330	621	119	290	29	9	282	77	-132	+10	-10	+92	+112	7.3
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	579	122	25	4	12	61	190	5	12	2	211	291	330	621	119	289	29	9	282	77	-17	+1	-1	+12	+14	0.9

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	6.0	4,009	134	6	234	301	398	+72	+7	16.9	15.7
/162	664	22	1	+11.9	+1.2	2.8	pk7: 14
#2Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	4.3	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
/162	664	15	8	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#3Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	4.9	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
/162	664	20	13	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#4Brendan Ryanlast yr '15 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,872 PA	4.3	2,872	19	67	234	295	315	+30	+85	10.6	11.0
/162	664	4	15	+6.9	+19.7	2.4	pk7: 11
#5Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	2.5	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#6Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	4.2	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
/162	664	10	9	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 7 projected seasons	4.4	2,907	54	49	214	291	335	+52	+28	6.2	5.5
/162	664	12	11	+11.9	+6.4	1.4	pk7: 5

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Johan Estrada (OGILVIE)	20	—	—	—	—	197/275/289	92	288	1	1	31%	9%	63	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jhostynxon Garcia 2023 · A	20	38→41	41→50	48→50	45	182/267/286	104	281	8	8	35%	9%	59	-1.7	201/262/332	131	290	13	10	34%	6%	67	-1.1	219/271/366	148	290	19	9	30%	5%	75	-0.3
✕Pablo Aliendo 2021 · A	20	40	37→50	50→45	41	186/263/256	70	295	4	13	35%	8%	50	-2.3	197/264/292	95	299	9	5	35%	6%	59	-1.6	197/266/334	137	285	16	5	35%	7%	66	-0.6
✕Max George 2016 · A	20	39→38	39→45	54→55	42	186/270/274	88	290	7	14	35%	8%	57	-1.8	186/268/290	104	258	9	15	30%	8%	60	-1.6	164/253/286	122	221	13	23	31%	8%	52	-1.3
✕Wendell Rijo 2015 · A	19	42→43	41→50	51→50	44	205/270/309	104	282	7	12	28%	7%	64	-1.3	200/251/288	88	282	6	11	30%	6%	52	-2.2	208/265/349	141	264	16	14	28%	6%	69	-0.6
✕Jason Lopez 2018 · A	20	40	38→50	47→45	44	192/261/269	76	264	5	9	28%	7%	52	-2.2	204/247/318	114	284	10	6	31%	5%	57	-1.8	161/223/251	90	239	8	7	35%	7%	32	-1.1
✕Jorge Alcantara 2013 · A	21	42	41→45	50	43	201/271/299	98	298	8	11	33%	8%	63	-1.4	193/263/287	94	294	6	14	34%	8%	57	-1.8	147/226/244	97	221	6	25	34%	8%	33	-1.0
✕Rey Duran 2009 · A	20	36	41→50	49→40	41	183/243/277	94	256	9	6	31%	6%	47	-2.5	213/267/338	125	268	14	5	25%	6%	70	-0.8	210/263/349	139	246	19	2	23%	5%	69	-0.4
✕Jose Ramos 2021 · A	20	43→41	38→50	48→45	41	206/270/283	78	285	5	9	28%	6%	59	-1.7	214/277/357	143	320	16	4	36%	7%	78	-0.3	203/271/348	146	303	18	4	37%	7%	72	-0.5
✕Michael Hermosillo 2015 · A	20	42→47	39→50	51→55	43	200/270/292	92	292	6	11	32%	8%	61	-1.5	217/292/295	78	287	5	17	24%	8%	70	-0.9	227/300/346	119	306	11	20	28%	7%	83	+0.1
✕Braulio Vasquez 2019 · A	20	43	38→40	47→65	40	207/259/281	74	295	5	11	30%	6%	53	-2.1	191/260/268	77	304	6	15	36%	7%	51	-2.2	188/266/266	78	286	5	32	33%	7%	52	-0.9
✕Carlos Jimenez 2022 · A	19	38→41	42→50	53→55	44	186/268/288	102	275	10	11	34%	9%	60	-1.6	201/285/320	119	319	11	16	37%	10%	73	-0.6	220/298/374	155	300	18	18	31%	9%	87	+0.3
✕Yeldrys Molina 2009 · A	20	43	38→40	48→50	44	206/265/287	82	281	4	9	27%	7%	57	-1.8	194/252/272	78	285	4	8	31%	7%	49	-2.4	139/198/200	60	203	0	9	29%	6%	11	-1.2
✕Rafael Morel 2022 · A	20	38	40	51→50	39	187/249/281	94	269	8	13	32%	6%	51	-2.3	196/261/274	78	315	7	10	37%	7%	53	-2.1	188/258/263	75	295	9	10	37%	7%	47	-1.2
✕Nelson Medina 2022 · A	21	40	38→45	53→50	48	189/275/275	85	275	5	15	31%	10%	59	-1.6	188/260/285	97	334	7	13	42%	8%	55	-1.9	138/202/215	77	286	6	16	50%	7%	15	-1.7
✕Brainer Bonaci 2022 · A	20	40→44	39→45	53→50	43	195/254/284	89	269	5	13	28%	7%	53	-2.1	216/286/322	106	302	9	13	29%	9%	74	-0.6	216/290/325	109	297	11	14	29%	9%	73	-0.4
✕Jose Meza 2023 · A	20	41→40	41→45	48→50	41	200/267/299	99	282	9	10	31%	6%	61	-1.5	203/296/305	102	299	9	8	32%	10%	74	-0.5	186/292/283	98	277	9	10	33%	11%	67	-0.7
✕Janelfry Zorrilla 2011 · A	20	41	40→45	50	42	202/257/291	89	262	7	13	26%	6%	55	-2.0	224/279/352	128	280	13	10	24%	6%	78	-0.3	225/276/353	127	282	14	8	25%	5%	75	-0.2
✕Leonel Espinoza 2023 · A	20	39→44	41→40	50→55	41	191/263/288	96	267	9	11	31%	7%	57	-1.8	210/273/299	89	302	7	14	31%	6%	63	-1.3	208/265/289	81	298	7	18	31%	5%	55	-1.1
✕Garrett Whitley 2017 · A	20	40→37	42→50	47→55	44	197/267/302	105	280	9	9	31%	8%	61	-1.5	191/271/310	119	332	11	13	42%	9%	65	-1.2	167/259/302	135	291	13	18	43%	10%	57	-1.1
✕Daurys Mercedes 2010 · A	20	45	37→45	49→45	42	208/268/290	82	302	3	7	30%	7%	59	-1.7	186/256/250	64	315	2	7	38%	8%	46	-2.6	145/223/189	44	275	2	6	44%	8%	18	-1.4

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps