Johan Estrada — OGILVIE

Johan EstradaC DSL Tigers 1

Age 20 R/R 5'11" / 170 lbs ROK HR -8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 57 proj PA

wRC+†57

AVG/OBP/SLG.197 / .275 / .289

PA57

HR1

K%31

BB%9

ISO93

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+1.3	$7M	+$6M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.3	$6M	+$6M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+1.2	$5M	+$5M
2035	Arb-1	$2M	+1.0	$4M	+$3M
2036	Arb-2	$2M	+0.8	$1M	+$0.7M
2037	Arb-3	$2M	+0.5	$0.9M	+$0.2M
Totals		$9M		$24M	+$21M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	17	ROK	DSL Tigers 1	—	61	54	6	2	0	0	7	29	0	2	1	111	213	148	361	37	240	48	11	177	-6	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK	DSL Tigers 1	—	61	49	9	2	0	0	12	20	0	2	1	184	344	224	569	41	310	33	20	283	75	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK	DSL Tigers 1	—	92	79	10	4	1	1	13	29	0	8	2	127	250	241	491	114	184	32	14	236	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK	DSL Tigers 1	—	92	71	15	6	1	2	21	20	0	8	2	211	391	408	800	197	265	22	23	365	137	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	20	MLB	DET	—	57	52	10	2	0	1	5	18	0	1	0	192	263	288	552	96	288	32	9	260	57	-3	+0	+0	+1	+2	0.0
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	21	MLB	DET	34%	118	105	23	5	1	2	11	35	1	2	0	219	299	343	642	124	290	30	9	271	65	-5	+0	+0	+2	+3	0.1
2028	22	MLB	DET	48%	262	234	49	10	2	4	24	77	2	5	1	209	288	321	609	111	291	29	9	278	71	-9	+1	+0	+5	+7	0.4
2029	23	MLB	DET	54%	366	327	69	15	2	6	33	106	3	7	1	211	289	324	613	113	292	29	9	283	75	-10	+1	+0	+7	+10	0.8
2030	24	MLB	DET	55%	437	391	85	18	3	8	40	125	3	8	2	217	295	340	635	123	293	29	9	286	77	-11	+1	+0	+8	+12	1.0
2031	25	MLB	DET	56%	479	428	92	19	3	9	44	137	4	9	2	215	294	336	631	121	293	29	9	288	78	-12	+1	+0	+9	+14	1.2
2032	26	MLB	DET	56%	504	449	97	20	3	10	46	145	4	9	2	216	295	341	635	125	293	29	9	289	79	-12	+1	+0	+9	+14	1.3
2033	27	MLB	DET	55%	515	458	99	21	3	10	48	148	4	10	2	216	296	341	637	124	293	29	9	289	79	-12	+1	+0	+9	+15	1.3
2034	28	MLB	DET	55%	518	461	99	21	3	10	48	150	4	9	2	215	294	338	633	124	293	29	9	288	78	-13	+1	-1	+9	+15	1.2
2035	29	MLB	DET	58%	513	456	98	20	3	10	48	149	4	8	2	215	295	338	633	123	292	29	9	286	77	-13	+1	-1	+9	+15	1.0
2036	30	MLB	DET	60%	505	449	95	20	3	9	47	148	4	8	1	212	292	330	622	118	290	29	9	283	75	-14	+1	-2	+9	+14	0.8
2037	31	MLB	DET	62%	478	426	88	18	3	8	45	142	4	6	1	207	288	319	608	113	288	30	9	279	72	-15	+1	-3	+9	+14	0.5
2038	32	MLB	DET	63%	447	399	83	17	3	8	42	134	3	5	1	208	288	326	614	118	284	30	9	273	67	-16	+1	-4	+8	+13	0.1
2039	33	MLB	DET	63%	407	363	71	14	2	6	38	124	3	3	1	196	277	295	572	99	280	30	9	267	62	-17	+0	-4	+7	+12	-0.3
2027	21	MLB	DET	34%	41	37	8	2	0	1	4	12	0	1	0	216	293	351	644	135	285	29	10	262	58	-2	+0	+0	+1	+1	0.0
2028	22	MLB	DET	48%	127	113	24	5	1	2	12	37	1	2	0	212	294	327	621	115	287	29	9	268	63	-5	+0	+0	+2	+4	0.1
2029	23	MLB	DET	54%	198	176	37	8	1	3	18	57	2	4	1	210	291	318	609	108	288	29	9	273	67	-7	+0	+0	+4	+6	0.2
2030	24	MLB	DET	55%	242	216	46	9	2	4	22	69	2	5	1	213	292	329	620	116	288	29	9	276	69	-8	+1	+0	+4	+7	0.3
2031	25	MLB	DET	56%	268	240	51	10	2	5	24	77	2	5	1	212	289	333	623	121	289	29	9	277	70	-9	+1	+0	+5	+8	0.4
2032	26	MLB	DET	56%	283	253	54	11	2	5	26	81	2	5	1	213	292	332	624	119	288	29	9	278	71	-9	+1	+0	+5	+8	0.5
2033	27	MLB	DET	55%	285	255	54	11	2	5	26	82	2	5	1	212	290	329	619	118	288	29	9	278	71	-9	+1	+0	+5	+8	0.5
2034	28	MLB	DET	55%	284	254	53	11	2	5	26	82	2	5	1	209	287	327	614	118	288	29	9	277	70	-10	+1	-0	+5	+8	0.4
2035	29	MLB	DET	58%	298	266	55	11	2	5	28	87	2	5	1	207	287	320	607	113	287	29	9	275	69	-10	+1	-1	+5	+8	0.3
2036	30	MLB	DET	60%	304	270	57	12	2	5	29	89	2	5	1	211	292	326	618	115	285	29	10	273	67	-11	+1	-1	+5	+9	0.2
2037	31	MLB	DET	62%	295	263	54	11	2	5	28	87	2	4	1	205	287	319	606	114	283	29	9	269	64	-12	+0	-2	+5	+8	0.0
2038	32	MLB	DET	63%	281	251	51	10	2	5	26	84	2	3	1	203	283	319	602	116	280	30	9	264	60	-13	+0	-2	+5	+8	-0.2
2039	33	MLB	DET	63%	258	230	45	9	1	4	24	79	2	2	0	196	277	296	573	100	275	31	9	257	55	-13	+0	-3	+5	+7	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	3164	2824	589	120	21	54	293	923	23	51	10	209	288	323	612	115	288	29	9	272	67	-120	+6	-9	+57	+90	2.4
/ 162G	—			—	650	580	121	25	4	11	60	190	5	10	2	209	288	322	611	114	288	29	9	272	67	-25	+1	-2	+12	+18	0.5
Career	—			—	5759	5131	1074	226	35	102	539	1696	43	100	21	209	290	327	617	117	289	29	9	280	73	-177	+12	-15	+103	+163	8.8
/ 162G	—			—	650	579	122	26	4	12	61	191	5	11	2	211	291	332	623	121	290	29	9	280	73	-20	+1	-2	+12	+18	1.0

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	17	ROK	DSL Tigers 1	—	61	49	9	2	0	0	12	20	0	2	1	184	344	224	569	41	310	33	20	283	75	-2	+0	—	—	+2	-0.0
2024	18	ROK	DSL Tigers 1	—	92	71	15	6	1	2	21	20	0	8	2	211	391	408	800	197	265	22	23	365	137	+4	+1	—	—	+3	0.7

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	11	4,009	134	6	234	301	398	+72	+7	16.9	15.7
#1John Bucklast yr '14 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,009 PA	/162	664	22	1	234	301	398	+11.9	+1.2	2.8	pk7: 14
#2Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	7	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
	/162	664	15	8	238	305	374	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#3Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	8	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
	/162	664	20	13	221	297	378	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#4Mike Mathenylast yr '06 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,830 PA	7	2,830	45	2	244	301	351	+21	+31	7.2	7.2
	/162	664	11	0	244	301	351	+4.9	+7.2	1.7	pk7: 7
#5Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	9	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
#5Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	/162	664	12	0	209	276	313	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#6Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	9	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
	/162	664	10	9	246	289	354	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 8 projected seasons	8	3,221	59	52	213	289	333	+58	+32	5.6	5.0
	/162	664	12	11	213	289	333	+11.9	+6.6	1.1	pk7: 4

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Johan Estrada (OGILVIE)	20	—	—	—	—	197/275/289	92	288	1	1	31%	9%	57	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jhostynxon Garcia 2023 · A	20	37→41	41→55	48→50	44	180/262/280	101	277	8	8	36%	9%	50	-1.8	198/258/332	134	287	14	10	34%	6%	61	-1.0	217/272/375	157	286	21	10	31%	5%	75	+0.0
✕Jason Lopez 2018 · A	20	40	38→55	47→45	44	192/261/269	76	264	5	9	28%	7%	46	-2.0	207/248/334	127	286	13	6	31%	5%	57	-1.2	189/235/314	124	265	13	8	33%	5%	43	-0.9
✕Pablo Aliendo 2021 · A	20	40	37→55	50→45	41	186/263/256	70	295	4	13	35%	8%	43	-2.2	196/264/293	97	301	10	5	36%	6%	54	-1.4	196/264/343	147	286	18	5	37%	6%	64	-0.4
✕Wendell Rijo 2015 · A	19	42→41	40→55	51→50	44	201/267/302	101	282	7	12	30%	7%	56	-1.3	197/248/287	90	281	7	11	31%	5%	44	-2.1	208/263/371	163	264	20	14	29%	6%	70	-0.2
✕Braulio Vasquez 2019 · A	20	43	38→45	47→65	40	207/259/281	74	295	5	11	30%	6%	47	-1.9	190/259/265	75	304	6	15	36%	7%	44	-2.1	192/271/270	78	293	5	32	33%	7%	47	-0.7
✕Ameilis Carvajal 2009 · A	20	41	39→40	50	48	191/281/275	84	291	6	12	33%	10%	56	-1.3	194/264/268	74	320	4	9	37%	8%	46	-2.0	140/204/175	34	267	0	8	44%	7%	-3	-1.2
✕Robert Gonzalez 2021 · A	20	42	40→45	54→60	47	195/295/296	102	308	7	8	35%	10%	69	-0.4	201/299/281	80	274	6	17	26%	10%	66	-0.6	179/307/226	46	224	4	30	20%	12%	56	-0.5
✕Eddys Leonard 2021 · A	20	42→47	40→55	45→50	44	202/274/296	94	295	7	8	32%	8%	59	-1.1	228/295/379	151	303	17	5	29%	7%	89	+1.0	225/292/378	153	293	18	4	28%	6%	84	+0.6
✕Tucker Mitchell 2022 · A	21	42	40→50	51→45	39	201/261/291	91	297	7	7	33%	6%	51	-1.7	195/269/309	114	298	13	8	37%	7%	61	-1.0	180/256/293	113	258	15	7	35%	7%	49	-0.7
✕Jorge Alcantara 2013 · A	21	42	41→45	50	43	201/271/299	98	298	8	11	33%	8%	58	-1.2	193/263/287	94	294	6	14	34%	8%	51	-1.7	147/226/244	97	221	6	25	34%	8%	24	-0.9
✕Jose Ramos 2021 · A	20	43→42	38→50	48→45	41	206/270/283	78	285	5	9	28%	6%	53	-1.5	214/277/356	142	321	16	4	36%	7%	76	+0.0	203/271/349	146	304	18	4	37%	7%	69	-0.3
✕Carlos Rodriguez 2023 · A	20	38	39→45	47→45	45	181/267/268	87	282	7	6	36%	9%	49	-1.8	190/265/267	77	299	5	6	35%	9%	47	-1.9	170/253/254	84	253	7	2	33%	9%	37	-1.0
✕Rey Duran 2009 · A	20	36	41→50	49→40	41	183/243/277	94	256	9	6	31%	6%	40	-2.4	213/267/338	125	268	14	5	25%	6%	66	-0.6	210/263/349	139	246	19	2	23%	5%	65	-0.3
✕Christian Cairo 2022 · A	21	39→46	40	53→60	46	187/281/276	89	288	7	16	34%	10%	58	-1.2	194/293/274	80	293	6	18	32%	11%	63	-0.9	214/304/283	68	303	4	34	27%	10%	66	-0.4
✕Leonel Espinoza 2023 · A	20	38→44	40	50→55	41	188/259/274	86	266	7	11	31%	6%	46	-2.0	209/272/298	89	302	7	14	31%	6%	58	-1.2	202/259/293	90	292	8	18	32%	5%	47	-1.0
✕Orlando Marquez 2016 · A	20	39	40→45	50→40	46	186/272/285	99	266	6	7	30%	9%	56	-1.3	181/247/275	94	236	7	6	25%	7%	42	-2.3	107/165/196	90	116	9	5	19%	5%	-12	-1.1
✕Ethan Workinger 2022 · A	20	37→44	40→50	50→45	37	182/242/275	93	284	6	6	36%	6%	39	-2.5	204/253/323	119	282	11	5	30%	6%	56	-1.3	204/258/343	139	247	18	9	25%	6%	60	-0.7
✕Michael Hermosillo 2015 · A	20	42→46	39→55	51→55	43	200/270/292	92	292	6	11	32%	8%	56	-1.3	215/291/294	79	285	6	17	24%	8%	66	-0.6	226/298/350	124	305	12	20	28%	7%	81	+0.3
✕Yeldrys Molina 2009 · A	20	43	38→40	48→50	44	206/265/287	82	281	4	9	27%	7%	51	-1.7	194/252/272	78	285	4	8	31%	7%	42	-2.3	139/198/200	60	203	0	9	29%	6%	-1	-1.2
✕Rafael Morel 2022 · A	20	38	40	51→50	39	187/248/282	94	270	8	13	32%	6%	43	-2.2	195/260/276	81	313	7	10	37%	7%	47	-1.9	186/257/265	79	290	10	10	37%	7%	41	-1.1