Sann Omosako — OGILVIE

Sann Omosako P FCL Blue Jays

Age 20 RHP 6'1" / 200 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 0.7 · 2031

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 26 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 117109vR 101

ERA4.40

FIP4.40

K%13.6%

BB%3.0%

K-BB%10.6%

ROS IP27

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 26 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$17M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3030

CTRL6565

CMD4545

K†3045

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.8M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.7M
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$3M		$4M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays	8	5	21	83	16	3	1	62%	2.6	13.1%	4.5%	8.6%	1.6%	2.61	3.42	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays	8	5	21	83	16	3	1	62%	2.6	13.1%	4.5%	8.6%	1.6%	2.61	3.42	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL Blue Jays	8	5	21	83	16	3	1	62%	2.6	19.3%	3.6%	15.7%	1.2%	2.61	2.62	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays	11	9	55	222	47	4	5	82%	5.0	14.4%	2.3%	12.1%	3.5%	2.44	4.11	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Blue Jays	11	9	55	222	47	4	5	82%	5.0	14.4%	2.3%	12.1%	3.5%	2.44	4.11	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL Blue Jays	11	9	55	222	47	4	5	82%	5.0	21.2%	1.8%	19.4%	2.3%	2.44	2.79	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	FCL Blue Jays	12	5	44	188	39	4	6	42%	3.7	14.1%	2.7%	11.4%	4.1%	4.09	4.52	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	FCL Blue Jays	12	5	44	188	39	4	6	42%	3.7	14.1%	2.7%	11.4%	4.1%	4.09	4.52	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	FCL Blue Jays	12	5	44	188	39	4	6	42%	3.7	20.7%	2.1%	18.6%	3.2%	4.09	3.37	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	20	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	18	4	44	191	39	9	6	22%	2.4	12.8%	7.0%	5.7%	4.4%	5.15	5.32	—
YTD	20	A MLE	Dunedin Blue Jays	18	4	44	191	39	9	6	22%	2.4	12.8%	7.0%	5.7%	4.4%	5.15	5.32	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	20	ROK RAW	TOR	16	3	35	160	30	9	5	19%	2.2	18.8%	5.6%	13.1%	3.1%	6.23	3.94	—
2026	20	A RAW	TOR	2	1	9	31	9	0	1	50%	4.5	29.0%	0.0%	29.0%	3.2%	1.00	2.42	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	21	MLB MLE	TOR	50	0	52	221	34	8	7	0%	1.0	15.6%	3.5%	12.1%	3.0%	4.31	4.25	+0.2
2028	22	MLB MLE	TOR	52	0	55	232	40	8	7	0%	1.1	17.4%	3.5%	13.9%	2.9%	4.16	4.07	+0.3
2029	23	MLB MLE	TOR	54	0	57	241	44	8	7	0%	1.1	18.5%	3.5%	15.0%	2.9%	4.04	3.95	+0.4
2030	24	MLB MLE	TOR	56	0	58	247	47	8	7	0%	1.0	19.2%	3.4%	15.8%	2.9%	3.94	3.87	+0.5
2031	25	MLB MLE	TOR	56	0	59	250	49	8	7	0%	1.1	19.5%	3.3%	16.3%	2.9%	3.86	3.81	+0.5
2032	26	MLB MLE	TOR	56	0	59	250	49	8	7	0%	1.1	19.7%	3.2%	16.5%	2.9%	3.82	3.79	+0.5
2033	27	MLB MLE	TOR	55	0	58	246	48	8	7	0%	1.1	19.7%	3.3%	16.4%	2.9%	3.83	3.83	+0.5
2027	21	MLB CTX	TOR	25	0	26	110	17	4	3	0%	1.0	15.6%	3.5%	12.1%	3.0%	4.31	4.25	+0.1
2028	22	MLB CTX	TOR	38	0	40	169	29	6	5	0%	1.1	17.4%	3.5%	13.9%	2.9%	4.16	4.07	+0.2
2029	23	MLB CTX	TOR	46	0	48	203	37	7	6	0%	1.0	18.5%	3.5%	15.0%	2.9%	4.04	3.95	+0.3
2030	24	MLB CTX	TOR	50	0	52	220	42	7	6	0%	1.0	19.2%	3.4%	15.8%	2.9%	3.94	3.87	+0.4
2031	25	MLB CTX	TOR	51	0	54	228	45	7	7	0%	1.1	19.5%	3.3%	16.3%	2.9%	3.86	3.81	+0.5
2032	26	MLB CTX	TOR	52	0	55	232	46	8	7	0%	1.1	19.7%	3.2%	16.5%	2.9%	3.82	3.79	+0.5
2033	27	MLB CTX	TOR	52	0	55	232	46	8	7	0%	1.1	19.7%	3.3%	16.4%	2.9%	3.83	3.83	+0.5
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		315	0	330	1395	263	47	40	0%	1.0	18.8%	3.4%	15.5%	2.9%	3.96	3.53	+4.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	159	28	24	0%	1.1	18.8%	3.4%	15.5%	2.9%	3.96	3.53	+2.4
Career	—	MLE		49	23	164	684	94	27	25	47%	3.3	13.7%	4.0%	9.7%	3.7%	3.63	4.48	+2.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		60	28	200	836	115	33	31	47%	3.3	13.7%	4.0%	9.7%	3.7%	3.63	4.48	+1.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Sann Omosako (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.40	13.6%	3.0%	3.1%	—	4.09	17.2%	13.7%	164	-0.31	—	—	—
Zack Brown R 2016 · 3.55 FIP	21	SW	3.55	15.2%	3.3%	2.4%	.248	4.15	17.5%	7.7%	352	+0.60	3.46	490	86
Gabe Friese R 2017 · 3.64 FIP	22	SW	3.64	15.8%	3.0%	2.7%	.282	4.71	10.3%	3.2%	61	+1.07	3.64	115	85
Chris Murphy R 2015 · 3.24 FIP	22	SW	3.24	15.2%	3.3%	1.8%	.304	4.96	9.5%	3.7%	95	+1.72	3.24	115	84
Andrew Sopko R 2015 · 3.76 FIP	20	SP-	3.76	17.4%	4.1%	2.9%	.282	3.97	16.6%	8.8%	353	+0.21	3.62	479	84
Ezequiel Zabaleta R 2016 · 3.41 FIP	20	SP-	3.41	13.8%	4.0%	1.8%	.244	5.27	14.2%	5.1%	120	+1.86	3.41	210	83
Carlos Bustamante R 2015 · 3.22 FIP	20	SW	3.22	16.3%	3.9%	1.8%	.317	3.33	19.3%	10.3%	129	+0.11	1.87	244	81
Tzu-Chen Sha R 2023 · 4.29 FIP	19	SP-	4.29	16.4%	4.3%	3.7%	.335	5.24	13.6%	5.5%	257	+0.95	4.21	309	81
Gabriel Barbosa R 2022 · 3.71 FIP	20	SP-	3.71	16.4%	3.2%	2.9%	.345	3.99	15.9%	8.2%	302	+0.28	3.02	456	80
Jose Gutierrez R 2023 · 3.59 FIP	20	SW	3.59	16.3%	5.3%	2.2%	.360	4.36	15.1%	4.8%	181	+0.77	3.34	214	80
Scooter Hightower R 2015 · 3.23 FIP	21	SW	3.23	18.7%	4.4%	2.1%	.304	2.86	19.6%	14.6%	68	-0.37	2.86	160	80
Fauris Guerrero R 2017 · 3.44 FIP	20	SW	3.44	14.6%	4.7%	1.8%	.293	4.21	16.8%	6.5%	58	+0.77	3.30	165	80
Evan Guillory R 2017 · 3.45 FIP	21	SW	3.45	13.1%	4.8%	1.6%	.285	4.92	12.4%	4.6%	137	+1.47	3.45	182	80
Jeremy Walker R 2016 · 3.49 FIP	21	SW	3.49	14.5%	5.8%	1.6%	.302	3.75	14.3%	7.8%	355	+0.26	2.45	519	79
Jose Chacin R 2017 · 4.53 FIP	20	SW	4.53	16.4%	4.4%	4.1%	.297	3.78	12.8%	6.8%	226	-0.75	2.87	608	77
Tom de Blok R 2017 · 3.87 FIP	21	SW	3.87	17.3%	4.9%	2.9%	.285	4.70	13.0%	3.1%	213	+0.83	3.87	291	77
Geno Encina R 2015 · 4.22 FIP	21	SW	4.22	16.5%	6.8%	3.0%	.325	7.09	12.0%	2.3%	76	+2.87	4.22	200	77
Cole Stapler R 2017 · 3.83 FIP	22	SW	3.83	19.2%	6.0%	2.9%	.266	3.31	18.1%	13.2%	220	-0.52	3.26	255	76
Carlos Gutierrez R 2019 · 4.71 FIP	19	SW	4.71	15.1%	7.1%	3.6%	.326	3.08	18.3%	6.2%	47	-1.63	3.08	122	75
Simon Mathews R 2017 · 4.09 FIP	21	SW	4.09	17.7%	7.5%	2.8%	.326	4.42	16.0%	5.9%	167	+0.33	4.09	215	75
Wellington Caceres R 2016 · 4.16 FIP	20	SP-	4.16	13.9%	6.4%	2.6%	.306	5.82	13.1%	2.1%	68	+1.66	4.16	121	75

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.1	53	18.3%	3.4%	1.13	4.01
Brandon Kintzler ('21)	1.5	50	16.2%	6.3%	0.91	3.57
Craig Stammen ('22)	2.0	66	23.0%	5.4%	1.19	3.36
Austin Pruitt ('23)	1.5	61	16.9%	5.6%	1.22	4.45
Richard Bleier ('23)	1.6	45	13.5%	3.8%	0.69	3.33
Nick Wittgren ('23)	1.6	41	21.6%	7.0%	1.15	4.04
Adam Cimber ('24)	1.6	52	18.3%	6.6%	0.75	3.75