Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 17 | ROK | DSL Blue Jays | 8 | 5 | 21 | 83 | 16 | 3 | 1 | 62% | 2.6 | 13.1% | 4.5% | 8.6% | 1.4% | 2.61 | 3.36 | — |
| 2023 | 17 | ROK | DSL Blue Jays | 8 | 5 | 21 | 83 | 16 | 3 | 1 | 62% | 2.6 | 19.3% | 3.6% | 15.7% | 1.2% | 2.61 | 2.62 | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK | DSL Blue Jays | 11 | 9 | 55 | 222 | 47 | 4 | 5 | 82% | 5.0 | 14.4% | 2.3% | 12.1% | 4.0% | 2.44 | 4.38 | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK | DSL Blue Jays | 11 | 9 | 55 | 222 | 47 | 4 | 5 | 82% | 5.0 | 21.2% | 1.8% | 19.4% | 2.3% | 2.44 | 2.79 | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK | FCL Blue Jays | 12 | 5 | 44 | 188 | 39 | 4 | 6 | 42% | 3.7 | 14.1% | 2.7% | 11.4% | 3.9% | 4.09 | 4.37 | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK | FCL Blue Jays | 12 | 5 | 44 | 188 | 39 | 4 | 6 | 42% | 3.7 | 20.7% | 2.1% | 18.6% | 3.2% | 4.09 | 3.37 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 20 | ROK | FCL Blue Jays | 14 | 3 | 32 | 147 | 28 | 9 | 5 | 21% | 2.3 | 13.0% | 7.7% | 5.3% | 4.8% | 5.85 | 5.59 | -0.4 |
| ROS | 20 | MLB | TOR | 26 | 0 | 27 | 113 | 15 | 6 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 13.6% | 5.6% | 8.0% | 3.1% | 4.72 | 4.72 | -0.1 |
| ROS | 20 | MLB | TOR | — | — | 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 13.6% | 5.6% | 8.0% | 3.1% | 4.72 | 4.72 | — |
| 2026 TOT | 20 | MLB | TOR | — | — | 59 | 260 | 43 | 15 | 8 | — | — | 16.7% | 5.9% | 10.8% | 3.3% | 5.34 | 5.20 | -0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 21 | MLB | TOR | 27 | 0 | 28 | 119 | 19 | 7 | 4 | 0% | 1.0 | 15.6% | 5.7% | 9.9% | 3.0% | 4.59 | 4.54 | +0.0 |
| 2027 | 21 | MLB | TOR | 13 | 0 | 14 | 59 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 15.6% | 5.7% | 9.9% | 3.0% | 4.59 | 4.54 | +0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 13 | 0 | 14 | 58 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 15.6% | 5.7% | 9.9% | 3.0% | 4.59 | 4.16 | +0.1 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 130 | 43 | 29 | 0% | 1.1 | 15.6% | 5.7% | 9.9% | 3.0% | 4.59 | 4.16 | +2.9 | ||
| Career | — | 45 | 22 | 152 | 640 | 88 | 25 | 24 | 49% | 3.4 | 13.8% | 3.9% | 9.9% | 3.8% | 3.66 | 4.52 | +1.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 59 | 29 | 200 | 840 | 116 | 33 | 32 | 49% | 3.4 | 13.8% | 3.9% | 9.9% | 3.8% | 3.66 | 4.52 | +2.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Sann Omosako (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.72 | 13.6% | 5.6% | 3.1% | — | 4.54 | 15.6% | 9.9% | 28 | -0.18 | — | — | — |
| Geno Encina R 2027 · 4.22 FIP | 21 | SW | 4.22 | 16.5% | 6.8% | 3.0% | .325 | 7.60 | 12.0% | 2.3% | 76 | +3.38 | 4.22 | 200 | 86 |
| Wellington Caceres R 2026 · 4.16 FIP | 20 | SP- | 4.16 | 13.9% | 6.4% | 2.6% | .306 | 5.82 | 13.1% | 2.1% | 68 | +1.66 | 4.16 | 121 | 86 |
| Carlos Gutierrez R 2025 · 4.71 FIP | 19 | SW | 4.71 | 15.1% | 7.1% | 3.6% | .326 | 3.08 | 18.3% | 6.2% | 47 | -1.63 | 3.08 | 122 | 86 |
| Williander Moreno R 2025 · 4.21 FIP | 19 | SW | 4.21 | 13.7% | 7.5% | 2.4% | .302 | 5.34 | 20.2% | 10.1% | 57 | +1.13 | 3.05 | 246 | 85 |
| Simon Mathews R 2027 · 4.09 FIP | 21 | SW | 4.09 | 17.7% | 7.5% | 2.8% | .326 | 4.51 | 16.0% | 5.9% | 167 | +0.42 | 4.09 | 215 | 85 |
| Dawil Almonte R 2026 · 3.60 FIP | 20 | SW | 3.60 | 17.4% | 7.8% | 1.8% | .271 | 4.44 | 14.7% | 3.3% | 97 | +0.84 | 3.60 | 138 | 84 |
| Jose Gutierrez R 2026 · 3.74 FIP | 20 | SW | 3.74 | 16.3% | 5.3% | 2.5% | .360 | 4.39 | 16.3% | 5.9% | 144 | +0.65 | 3.23 | 177 | 84 |
| Kyle Weatherly R 2027 · 3.78 FIP | 21 | SP- | 3.78 | 14.2% | 7.1% | 1.8% | .307 | 4.39 | 13.3% | 1.6% | 169 | +0.61 | 3.78 | 207 | 83 |
| Nick Gallagher R 2028 · 4.14 FIP | 22 | SW | 4.14 | 17.2% | 7.1% | 2.9% | .310 | 4.49 | 22.4% | 7.1% | 90 | +0.35 | 4.09 | 196 | 83 |
| Connor Mayes R 2027 · 3.68 FIP | 21 | SP- | 3.68 | 13.4% | 6.8% | 1.5% | .274 | 5.29 | 12.2% | 1.4% | 62 | +1.61 | 3.68 | 105 | 83 |
| Samuel Colmenares R 2026 · 3.78 FIP | 20 | SW | 3.78 | 15.8% | 7.8% | 1.9% | .281 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.78 | 123 | 83 |
| Enrique De Los Rios R 2026 · 3.57 FIP | 20 | SP- | 3.57 | 11.0% | 5.6% | 1.3% | .276 | 4.06 | 14.0% | 7.8% | 100 | +0.49 | 3.57 | 166 | 83 |
| Anderson Reynoso R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 20 | SW | 3.77 | 13.4% | 6.0% | 1.9% | .294 | 8.60 | 6.3% | -7.6% | 10 | +4.83 | 3.56 | 122 | 82 |
| Matt Smith R 2028 · 3.70 FIP | 22 | SW | 3.70 | 13.0% | 6.4% | 1.6% | .340 | 4.88 | 14.2% | 6.7% | 115 | +1.18 | 3.70 | 163 | 82 |
| Josan Méndez R 2025 · 3.53 FIP | 19 | SW | 3.53 | 14.1% | 6.8% | 1.4% | .313 | 3.96 | 14.5% | 8.0% | 69 | +0.43 | 2.80 | 223 | 81 |
| Jose Montero R 2026 · 4.22 FIP | 20 | SW | 4.22 | 16.8% | 6.3% | 3.2% | .393 | 4.44 | 15.4% | 3.3% | 268 | +0.22 | 3.77 | 342 | 80 |
| Mauricio Veliz R 2026 · 4.54 FIP | 20 | SW | 4.54 | 13.7% | 8.2% | 2.8% | .214 | 4.99 | 12.1% | -0.0% | 202 | +0.45 | 4.54 | 282 | 80 |
| Gabriel Llanes R 2025 · 4.33 FIP | 19 | SP- | 4.33 | 10.3% | 3.9% | 2.9% | .296 | 4.19 | 8.6% | 1.4% | 267 | -0.14 | 4.10 | 312 | 79 |
| Ethan Clark R 2026 · 5.38 FIP | 20 | SP- | 5.38 | 13.3% | 7.1% | 4.5% | .386 | 4.43 | 16.9% | 5.9% | 239 | -0.95 | 2.53 | 280 | 79 |
| Saul Gonzalez R 2027 · 3.69 FIP | 21 | SP- | 3.69 | 16.1% | 8.4% | 1.6% | .320 | 3.27 | 19.8% | 9.6% | 70 | -0.42 | 2.98 | 110 | 79 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 27 | 14.6% | 5.7% | 1.17 | 4.65 |
| Austin Pruitt ('23) | 5 | 61 | 16.9% | 5.6% | 1.22 | 4.45 |
| JC Ramírez ('17) | 3 | 83 | 17.0% | 7.7% | 1.30 | 4.33 |
| Blaine Hardy ('19) | 5 | 50 | 18.6% | 7.7% | 1.11 | 3.91 |
| Chris Rusin ('18) | 4 | 89 | 17.9% | 7.1% | 1.01 | 4.43 |
| Dan Otero ('19) | 5 | 53 | 16.7% | 3.0% | 1.12 | 3.93 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |