Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 21 | ROK | Danville Braves | 13 | 5 | 40 | 173 | 37 | 8 | 2 | 38% | 3.1 | 14.5% | 5.8% | 8.8% | 1.6% | 3.18 | 3.49 | — |
| 2016 | 21 | ROK | Danville Braves | 13 | 5 | 40 | 173 | 37 | 8 | 2 | 38% | 3.1 | 21.4% | 4.6% | 16.8% | 1.2% | 3.18 | 2.49 | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A | Rome Braves | 27 | 27 | 138 | 601 | 100 | 30 | 7 | 100% | 5.1 | 12.3% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 3.0% | 3.97 | 4.45 | — |
| 2017 | 22 | A | Rome Braves | 27 | 27 | 138 | 601 | 100 | 30 | 7 | 100% | 5.1 | 16.6% | 5.0% | 11.6% | 1.2% | 3.97 | 2.96 | — |
| 2018 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 26 | 143 | 614 | 101 | 46 | 10 | 100% | 5.5 | 12.5% | 8.8% | 3.7% | 2.3% | 3.84 | 4.40 | — |
| 2018 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 26 | 26 | 143 | 614 | 101 | 46 | 10 | 100% | 5.5 | 16.4% | 7.5% | 9.0% | 1.6% | 3.84 | 3.56 | — |
| 2019 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 38 | 1 | 91 | 367 | 88 | 15 | 3 | 3% | 2.4 | 20.7% | 3.6% | 17.1% | 1.3% | 2.78 | 2.54 | +2.8 |
| 2019 | 24 | MIX | 3 levels | 38 | 1 | 91 | 367 | 88 | 15 | 3 | 3% | 2.4 | 24.0% | 4.1% | 19.9% | 0.8% | 2.78 | 2.09 | +3.3 |
| 2022 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 46 | 2 | 59 | 267 | 56 | 17 | 5 | 4% | 1.3 | 17.9% | 7.0% | 10.9% | 2.0% | 6.60 | 3.58 | — |
| 2022 | 27 | MIX | 2 levels | 46 | 2 | 59 | 267 | 56 | 17 | 5 | 4% | 1.3 | 21.0% | 6.4% | 14.6% | 1.9% | 6.60 | 3.17 | — |
| 2023 | 28 | AAA | Lehigh Valley IronPigs | 47 | 2 | 68 | 280 | 52 | 30 | 8 | 4% | 1.5 | 16.3% | 11.2% | 5.1% | 3.0% | 2.90 | 4.78 | — |
| 2023 | 28 | AAA | Lehigh Valley IronPigs | 47 | 2 | 68 | 280 | 52 | 30 | 8 | 4% | 1.5 | 18.6% | 10.7% | 7.9% | 2.9% | 2.90 | 4.42 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 31 | MLB | PHI | 42 | 0 | 44 | 188 | 42 | 18 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 12.6% | 3.0% | 4.47 | 4.47 | +0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | PHI | 39 | 0 | 41 | 174 | 38 | 17 | 6 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.8% | 10.0% | 11.9% | 3.2% | 4.59 | 4.68 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 32 | MLB | PHI | 14 | 0 | 15 | 63 | 14 | 6 | 2 | 0% | 1.1 | 21.8% | 10.0% | 11.9% | 3.2% | 4.59 | 4.68 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 20 | 0 | 24 | 102 | 20 | 10 | 2 | 0% | 1.2 | 19.6% | 10.2% | 9.4% | 2.0% | 3.58 | 3.85 | +0.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 167 | 0 | 200 | 833 | 163 | 82 | 16 | 0% | 1.2 | 19.6% | 10.2% | 9.4% | 2.0% | 3.58 | 3.85 | +3.6 | ||
| Career | — | 197 | 63 | 539 | 2302 | 345 | 163 | 53 | 32% | 2.7 | 15.0% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 2.3% | 3.83 | 4.00 | +8.8 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 73 | 23 | 200 | 855 | 128 | 60 | 20 | 32% | 2.7 | 15.0% | 7.1% | 7.9% | 2.3% | 3.83 | 4.00 | +3.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Jeremy Walker (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.47 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 3.0% | — | 4.68 | 21.8% | 11.9% | 41 | +0.21 | — | — | — |
| Yoanner Negrin R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.02 | 15.1% | 7.5% | 2.3% | .256 | 3.39 | 15.0% | 8.5% | 270 | -0.63 | 3.19 | 485 | 76 |
| Tim Dillard R 2027 · 3.70 FIP | 32 | SW | 3.70 | 15.9% | 7.7% | 1.8% | .330 | 3.83 | 16.7% | 8.1% | 144 | +0.13 | 3.15 | 352 | 76 |
| Chris Leroux R 2026 · 4.50 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.50 | 15.2% | 8.6% | 2.9% | .279 | 3.94 | 13.5% | 5.5% | 140 | -0.56 | 3.94 | 219 | 74 |
| Robert Stock R 2026 · 4.10 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.10 | 23.0% | 8.5% | 3.4% | .301 | 7.89 | 14.7% | -1.9% | 23 | +3.79 | 0.76 | 348 | 73 |
| Steve Johnson R 2024 · 4.30 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.30 | 20.3% | 8.9% | 3.2% | .321 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.17 | 152 | 71 |
| Dustin Molleken R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.18 | 19.6% | 12.1% | 2.2% | .276 | 3.35 | 24.3% | 11.9% | 16 | -0.83 | 3.35 | 129 | 71 |
| Josh Zeid R 2025 · 5.41 FIP | 30 | SW | 5.41 | 18.3% | 10.8% | 4.5% | .334 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 265 | 71 |
| Angel Sánchez R 2028 · 4.98 FIP | 33 | SW | 4.98 | 19.4% | 12.2% | 3.6% | .333 | 3.80 | 12.1% | 6.3% | 27 | -1.18 | 3.80 | 284 | 70 |
| Clayton Mortensen R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.23 | 21.1% | 9.7% | 3.1% | .355 | 4.62 | 23.2% | 9.0% | 51 | +0.39 | 4.23 | 221 | 69 |
| Josh Lindblom R 2025 · 4.28 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.28 | 18.7% | 5.5% | 3.8% | .333 | 3.66 | 27.2% | 18.8% | 45 | -0.62 | 3.66 | 348 | 69 |
| Cody Satterwhite R 2025 · 4.26 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.26 | 17.0% | 7.1% | 3.1% | .310 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.62 | 147 | 68 |
| Felipe Arredondo R 2025 · 5.08 FIP | 30 | SW | 5.08 | 14.8% | 7.3% | 4.2% | .311 | 4.91 | 16.2% | 9.1% | 64 | -0.17 | 3.93 | 337 | 68 |
| Mike Bolsinger R 2024 · 4.30 FIP | 29 | SW | 4.30 | 20.2% | 9.4% | 3.1% | .317 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.55 | 327 | 67 |
| Angel Castro R 2027 · 4.89 FIP | 32 | SU | 4.89 | 15.9% | 8.0% | 3.9% | .268 | 4.43 | 13.6% | 5.5% | 231 | -0.46 | 3.48 | 292 | 67 |
| Rudy Gonzalez R 2029 · 4.65 FIP | 34 | SW | 4.65 | 13.5% | 9.6% | 2.7% | .347 | 3.78 | 14.0% | 6.5% | 79 | -0.87 | 3.32 | 119 | 67 |
| Murphy Smith R 2025 · 4.47 FIP | 30 | SW | 4.47 | 13.6% | 9.3% | 2.5% | .273 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.14 | 300 | 66 |
| Mike Broadway R 2026 · 4.56 FIP | 31 | SU | 4.56 | 23.0% | 10.6% | 3.7% | .282 | — | — | — | — | — | 1.74 | 195 | 66 |
| Elian Leyva R 2025 · 4.30 FIP | 30 | SP- | 4.30 | 17.0% | 8.5% | 2.9% | .323 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.16 | 158 | 66 |
| Josh A. Smith R 2026 · 4.57 FIP | 31 | SW | 4.57 | 20.8% | 6.4% | 4.4% | .341 | 3.72 | 17.4% | 8.6% | 59 | -0.85 | 2.71 | 598 | 66 |
| Tanner Scheppers R 2025 · 4.65 FIP | 30 | SU | 4.65 | 15.7% | 6.7% | 3.7% | .301 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.39 | 101 | 65 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 2 | 43 | 22.0% | 9.8% | 1.21 | 4.53 |
| Travis Wood ('17) | 3 | 85 | 20.8% | 9.8% | 1.34 | 4.72 |
| José Ruiz ('24) | 5 | 52 | 22.2% | 10.4% | 1.41 | 4.41 |
| Brandon Maurer ('18) | 4 | 53 | 21.5% | 8.8% | 1.06 | 5.20 |
| Bud Norris ('18) | 4 | 79 | 22.7% | 9.2% | 1.28 | 5.07 |
| Noé Ramirez ('22) | 5 | 52 | 24.8% | 9.0% | 1.33 | 4.19 |
| Carlos Torres ('17) | 3 | 71 | 20.1% | 9.0% | 0.97 | 3.77 |