John Santana — OGILVIE

John SantanaOF DSL Tampa Bay

Age 21 L/R 6'3" / 176 lbs ROK HR -6%H +4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 88 proj PA

wRC+†51

AVG/OBP/SLG.192 / .256 / .270

PA88

HR1

K%28

BB%7

ISO79

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 30 / POW 35

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT30

scouting grade only

POWER35

scouting grade only

EYE45

scouting grade only

SPEED45

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2038	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2023	17	ROK	DSL Tampa Bay	—	91	75	17	5	3	4	13	35	2	2	0	227	356	533	889	307	361	38	14	381	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK	DSL Rays	—	125	114	28	1	2	1	7	32	2	4	2	246	301	316	617	70	325	26	6	277	1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK	DSL Tampa Bay	—	206	171	35	9	0	5	26	41	5	7	5	205	327	345	672	140	233	20	13	305	18	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Tampa Bay	—	91	79	10	3	2	2	9	43	2	2	0	127	233	291	524	165	209	47	10	210	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Rays	—	125	117	17	1	1	0	4	39	2	4	2	145	187	171	358	26	207	31	3	170	1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Tampa Bay	—	206	179	23	6	0	3	18	50	5	7	5	128	228	212	440	84	145	24	9	195	18	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Tampa Bay	—	91	79	10	3	2	2	9	43	2	2	0	127	233	291	524	165	235	47	10	210	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL Tampa Bay	—	91	75	17	5	3	4	13	35	2	2	0	227	356	533	889	307	361	38	14	381	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Rays	—	125	117	17	1	1	0	4	39	2	4	2	145	187	171	358	26	212	31	3	170	1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	DSL Rays	—	125	114	28	1	2	1	7	32	2	4	2	246	301	316	617	70	325	26	6	277	1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Tampa Bay	—	206	179	23	6	0	3	18	50	5	7	5	128	228	212	440	84	154	24	9	195	18	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	DSL Tampa Bay	—	206	171	35	9	0	5	26	41	5	7	5	205	327	345	672	140	233	20	13	305	18	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Tampa Bay	—	91	80	10	3	2	2	9	43	2	2	0	125	233	287	521	162	209	47	10	210	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Rays	—	125	118	17	1	1	0	4	39	2	4	2	144	187	169	356	25	207	31	3	170	1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Tampa Bay	—	206	181	23	6	0	3	18	50	5	7	5	127	228	210	438	83	145	24	9	195	18	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	18	ROK MLE	DSL Rays	—	125	118	17	1	1	0	4	39	2	4	2	144	187	169	356	25	207	31	3	170	1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	DSL Tampa Bay	—	206	181	23	6	0	3	18	50	5	7	5	127	228	210	438	83	145	24	9	195	18	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	21	MLB MLE	TB	0%	316	288	55	9	2	3	21	88	4	5	1	194	258	273	531	79	264	28	7	243	51	-19	+1	+0	-2	+7	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	TB	34%	124	113	22	4	1	1	9	34	1	2	1	198	263	286	549	88	267	27	7	251	56	-7	+0	+0	-1	+3	-0.5
2028	22	MLB CTX	TB	34%	43	40	8	1	0	1	3	12	0	1	0	200	265	287	553	87	270	28	7	252	56	-2	+0	+0	-0	+1	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	43	40	8	1	0	1	3	12	0	1	0	200	256	300	556	100	259	28	7	252	28	-2	+0	+0	-0	+1	-0.1
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	605	121	15	0	15	45	181	0	15	0	200	255	299	555	99	259	28	7	252	28	-34	+3	+0	-4	+14	-2.1
Career	—	MLE		—	634	569	89	17	5	7	46	191	11	16	8	156	233	241	474	84	217	30	7	210	28	-12	+0	+0	-1	+5	-0.8
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	583	91	17	5	7	47	196	11	16	8	156	232	238	471	82	217	30	7	210	28	-36	+1	+0	-4	+14	-2.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
John Santana (OGILVIE)	21	30	35	45	45	192/256/270	79	264	1	1	28%	7%	51	-0.3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jacob Pearson 2019 · A	21	39	39→40	45→50	40	192/245/278	86	270	7	8	31%	6%	47	-2.5	194/249/286	92	266	7	11	28%	7%	51	-2.3	165/232/259	94	229	8	19	30%	7%	37	-1.2
✕Luis Mendez 2024 · A	21	38	38→40	47→50	43	182/254/259	77	275	6	10	34%	8%	47	-2.5	193/255/274	81	270	5	12	28%	7%	50	-2.3	187/247/263	77	253	5	13	27%	7%	43	-1.2
✕Sandy Acevedo 2013 · A	20	37	38→40	49→50	44	181/259/263	83	253	5	11	29%	8%	51	-2.3	186/256/284	98	256	7	9	28%	7%	54	-2.0	123/201/242	119	154	9	9	26%	8%	23	-1.1
✕Josh Sale 2012 · A	21	37	40→45	46→40	43	185/236/280	95	238	7	6	25%	6%	45	-2.7	206/275/317	111	300	10	6	32%	8%	68	-1.0	193/270/308	115	299	12	4	36%	9%	64	-0.7
✕Henrry Rosario 2014 · A	21	36	37→45	47→45	46	174/247/252	78	242	4	8	28%	8%	42	-2.9	195/249/297	102	250	8	7	24%	6%	53	-2.1	198/245/326	128	246	14	9	25%	5%	57	-0.6
✕Herman Armas 2007 · A	20	37	38→40	47→50	44	181/254/261	80	248	5	11	28%	7%	48	-2.5	197/270/285	88	250	7	9	23%	7%	59	-1.6	179/264/261	82	212	9	9	19%	8%	51	-1.2
✕Jaden Rudd 2023 · A	20	39→36	39→30	49→50	49	187/279/277	90	259	6	12	28%	9%	61	-1.5	182/288/248	66	288	3	14	34%	10%	59	-1.6	160/281/212	51	264	2	16	35%	11%	47	-1.3
✕Shane Mardirosian 2017 · A	21	41→40	36→40	46→45	39	198/244/266	69	266	3	9	26%	4%	44	-2.8	203/257/283	80	293	6	8	31%	6%	53	-2.1	198/267/282	84	301	7	7	34%	7%	57	-0.6
✕Nathan Mikolas 2015 · A	21	40	40	48→45	40	192/263/283	91	288	8	7	34%	7%	57	-1.8	207/266/297	90	302	8	6	32%	6%	60	-1.6	195/255/278	83	281	9	4	32%	6%	49	-0.7
✕Andry Arias 2021 · A	21	38	39→40	51→40	42	186/255/269	83	272	6	8	32%	8%	50	-2.3	190/255/289	99	292	8	6	35%	7%	55	-2.0	163/234/264	101	246	9	3	35%	7%	39	-1.0
✕Misael Urbina 2023 · A	21	38→32	41→40	49→50	45	190/258/293	104	259	8	12	29%	8%	57	-1.8	179/258/267	88	262	6	9	31%	9%	51	-2.3	166/253/247	81	240	5	8	30%	10%	42	-1.7
✕Victor Duarte 2022 · A	21	38	38→30	48→45	42	185/249/264	79	253	5	7	28%	6%	47	-2.6	199/274/279	80	289	6	6	31%	7%	59	-1.6	182/251/245	63	250	5	11	28%	7%	41	-0.8
✕Daury Arias 2023 · A	21	37→38	41→40	46→45	52	185/276/283	98	231	9	8	23%	10%	62	-1.4	181/255/259	78	262	6	9	31%	8%	48	-2.5	161/238/228	67	236	5	9	32%	8%	31	-1.9
✕Vicmal De La Cruz 2014 · A	20	38	38→40	47→50	40	185/239/260	76	260	6	5	30%	6%	41	-3.0	185/243/256	71	278	3	6	32%	6%	42	-2.9	144/211/202	57	222	0	6	32%	6%	17	-1.5
✕Danyer Sanabria 2022 · A	20	33	39→45	48→45	35	170/215/251	81	265	7	7	38%	5%	30	-3.8	202/249/292	90	329	5	5	38%	6%	52	-2.2	202/246/298	97	321	5	3	37%	5%	48	-0.8
✕Jordan Viars 2024 · A	21	39	40	48→45	39	189/262/280	91	285	8	7	35%	6%	56	-1.9	179/246/285	106	305	11	5	42%	6%	51	-2.3	145/215/250	105	253	13	2	46%	7%	30	-1.5
✕David Berres 2008 · A	21	37	34→30	47→45	36	175/233/223	47	285	2	10	37%	6%	30	-3.8	207/278/263	56	287	3	7	26%	8%	57	-1.8	214/294/252	38	291	3	6	25%	10%	57	-1.0
✕Sam McDonnell 2017 · A	21	43→42	37→40	48→45	48	202/274/285	83	277	3	9	26%	8%	60	-1.6	207/273/291	84	288	5	7	28%	8%	61	-1.5	199/268/277	79	272	6	6	27%	8%	53	-1.4
✕Cristhian Vasquez 2017 · A	20	32	38→30	49→50	42	160/225/238	78	222	6	8	30%	7%	32	-3.7	193/249/266	73	256	4	9	25%	6%	46	-2.6	188/241/245	57	243	2	11	22%	5%	35	-1.5
✕Rubel Cespedes 2022 · A	21	32→42	39→45	49→40	36	166/219/248	82	252	6	6	36%	6%	31	-3.7	210/258/309	99	293	9	4	30%	6%	59	-1.6	215/263/317	102	288	10	3	28%	6%	61	-1.0