Nick Montgomery

C Augusta GreenJackets

Age 21 R/R 6'4" / 210 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

OGV OFP35OGV rank#1484ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	19	AATL	357	.170/.276/.252	5	1	5	—	.119/.202/.166
2026	20	AATL	207	.182/.341/.370	8	1	43	—	.131/.254/.261
2027PROJMLE	21	MLBATL	317	.184/.270/.279	5	4	57	0.0
2028PROJ34% MLB	22	MLBATL	57	.190/.276/.296	1	1	64	-0.0
2029PROJ48% MLB	23	MLBATL	124	.195/.281/.308	2	2	68	0.1

Next 3 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+3

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A

BB%88

ISO76

Chase%56

wRC+47

wOBA43

K%13

Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsRudy van Heydoorn (age 21) · Luis Sanchez (age 21) · Franklin Tineo (age 21)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 120 proj PA

wRC+†57

AVG/OBP/SLG.182 / .267 / .277

PA120

HR2

K%30

BB%9

ISO95

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$1M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 20 / POW 25

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT20

scouting grade only

POWER25

scouting grade only

EYE45

scouting grade only

SPEED40

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.1	$0.2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2035	Arb-1	$0.4M	—	—	—
2036	Arb-2	$5M	—	—	—
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$1M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2025	19	A	Augusta GreenJackets	—	357	306	52	6	2	5	42	119	3	1	0	170	276	252	527	82	251	33	12	247	5	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	A	Augusta GreenJackets	—	207	165	30	7	0	8	37	69	3	1	1	182	341	370	711	188	244	33	18	325	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2025	19	A MLE	Augusta GreenJackets	—	357	319	38	4	1	3	30	165	3	1	0	119	202	166	368	47	219	46	8	176	5	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	A MLE	Augusta GreenJackets	—	207	176	23	5	0	6	26	94	3	1	1	131	254	261	515	131	206	45	13	232	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	A MLE	Augusta GreenJackets	—	357	319	38	4	1	3	30	165	3	1	0	119	202	166	368	47	224	46	8	176	5	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	A RAW	Augusta GreenJackets	—	357	306	52	6	2	5	42	119	3	1	0	170	276	252	527	82	251	33	12	247	5	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	A MLE	Augusta GreenJackets	—	207	176	23	5	0	6	26	94	3	1	1	131	254	261	515	131	218	45	13	232	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	A RAW	Augusta GreenJackets	—	207	165	30	7	0	8	37	69	3	1	1	182	341	370	711	188	244	33	18	325	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	A MLE	Augusta GreenJackets	—	357	321	38	4	1	3	30	165	3	1	0	118	202	165	367	47	219	46	8	176	5	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	A MLE	Augusta GreenJackets	—	207	176	23	5	0	6	26	94	3	1	1	131	254	261	515	131	206	45	13	232	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2025	19	A MLE	Augusta GreenJackets	—	357	321	38	4	1	3	30	165	3	1	0	118	202	165	367	47	219	46	8	176	5	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	A MLE	Augusta GreenJackets	—	207	176	23	5	0	6	26	94	3	1	1	131	254	261	515	131	206	45	13	232	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	21	MLB MLE	ATL	0%	317	281	52	10	1	5	30	96	3	4	1	184	270	279	549	95	257	30	9	253	57	-16	+0	+0	+6	+7	0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	ATL	34%	167	147	28	5	1	3	16	49	2	2	1	190	276	296	572	106	260	29	10	262	64	-7	+0	+0	+3	+4	-0.1
2029	23	MLB MLE	ATL	48%	255	226	45	9	1	5	24	74	3	4	1	195	281	308	589	113	262	29	9	269	68	-10	+0	+0	+5	+6	0.1
2030	24	MLB MLE	ATL	53%	336	298	60	11	2	7	32	96	3	5	1	199	284	317	601	117	265	29	10	274	71	-11	+1	+0	+6	+7	0.2
2031	25	MLB MLE	ATL	55%	380	337	68	13	2	8	36	107	4	5	1	202	287	323	609	121	266	28	9	277	74	-12	+1	+0	+7	+8	0.4
2032	26	MLB MLE	ATL	56%	406	360	74	14	2	9	39	113	4	5	1	204	288	327	615	123	267	28	10	279	75	-12	+1	+0	+7	+9	0.5
2033	27	MLB MLE	ATL	55%	416	369	75	14	2	9	40	116	4	5	1	203	287	324	611	121	267	28	10	278	74	-13	+1	+0	+7	+9	0.4
2034	28	MLB MLE	ATL	55%	416	369	75	14	2	9	40	117	4	5	1	201	285	319	604	118	266	28	10	275	72	-14	+1	-1	+7	+9	0.3
2035	29	MLB MLE	ATL	53%	407	362	72	14	2	8	38	116	4	4	2	198	282	313	595	114	264	29	9	271	70	-15	+0	-1	+7	+9	0.0
2036	30	MLB MLE	ATL	53%	397	354	69	13	1	8	37	114	3	3	2	195	278	305	583	109	262	29	9	267	67	-16	-0	-2	+7	+9	-0.2
2028	22	MLB CTX	ATL	34%	57	51	10	2	0	1	5	17	1	1	0	190	276	296	572	106	260	30	9	262	64	-2	+0	+0	+1	+1	-0.0
2029	23	MLB CTX	ATL	48%	124	110	21	4	1	2	12	36	1	2	0	195	281	308	589	113	262	29	10	269	68	-5	+0	+0	+2	+3	0.1
2030	24	MLB CTX	ATL	53%	177	156	32	6	1	4	17	50	2	2	1	199	284	317	601	117	265	28	10	274	71	-6	+0	+0	+3	+4	0.1
2031	25	MLB CTX	ATL	55%	208	184	37	7	1	4	20	58	2	3	1	202	287	323	609	121	266	28	10	277	74	-7	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.2
2032	26	MLB CTX	ATL	56%	226	201	41	8	1	5	21	63	2	3	1	204	288	327	615	123	267	28	9	279	75	-7	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.2
2033	27	MLB CTX	ATL	55%	229	203	41	8	1	5	22	64	2	3	1	203	287	324	611	121	267	28	10	278	74	-7	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.2
2034	28	MLB CTX	ATL	55%	227	201	41	8	1	5	22	64	2	2	1	201	285	319	604	118	266	28	10	275	72	-8	+0	-0	+4	+5	0.1
2035	29	MLB CTX	ATL	53%	217	192	38	7	1	4	21	62	2	2	1	198	282	313	595	114	264	29	10	271	70	-8	+0	-1	+4	+5	0.0
2036	30	MLB CTX	ATL	53%	209	185	37	7	1	4	20	60	2	2	1	195	278	305	583	109	262	29	10	267	67	-8	+0	-1	+4	+5	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1674	1483	298	57	8	34	160	474	16	20	7	201	286	319	605	118	269	28	10	274	63	-57	+1	-2	+30	+36	0.8
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	576	115	22	3	13	62	184	6	8	3	200	284	316	600	116	267	28	10	274	63	-22	+0	-1	+12	+14	0.3
Career	—	MLE		—	3864	3424	647	120	17	77	369	1197	38	42	12	189	275	301	577	112	262	31	10	261	63	-115	+4	-4	+59	+72	1.5
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	576	109	20	3	13	62	201	6	7	2	189	275	302	577	113	262	31	10	261	63	-23	+1	-1	+12	+14	0.3

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 AAugusta GreenJackets · 207 PAwOBA .320 → .232 (−88)K% 33.3% → 45.3%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	33.33%	÷1.000	×1.360	—	—	45.33%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	17.87%	÷1.000	×0.690	—	×1.015	12.52%
HBP% /PA	1.45%	—	×0.780	—	×1.015	1.15%
Singles /BIP	15.62%	÷1.000	×0.920	×0.950	×1.015	13.86%
Doubles /BIP	7.29%	÷1.000	×0.830	×0.950	×1.015	5.84%
Triples /BIP	0.00%	÷1.000	×0.910	×0.950	×1.015	0.00%
Home runs /BIP	8.33%	÷1.000	×0.800	—	×1.015	6.77%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.

Result: wOBA .320 → .232; ISO .188 → .134; BABIP .244 → .206. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 AAugusta GreenJackets · 357 PAwOBA .245 → .176 (−68)K% 33.3% → 46.1%

Component	Raw	Park ÷	Level factor ×	GB/FB ×	Age ×	= MLE
K% /PA	33.33%	÷0.984	×1.360	—	—	46.08%
BB% (unintentional) /PA	11.76%	÷0.985	×0.690	—	×1.030	8.49%
HBP% /PA	0.84%	—	×0.780	—	×1.030	0.68%
Singles /BIP	20.86%	÷1.030	×0.920	×0.967	×1.030	18.56%
Doubles /BIP	3.21%	÷0.977	×0.830	×0.967	×1.030	2.72%
Triples /BIP	1.07%	÷1.037	×0.910	×0.967	×1.030	0.93%
Home runs /BIP	2.67%	÷1.281	×0.800	—	×1.030	1.72%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 156, 1B 106, 2B 95, 3B 107, K 97, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.967.

Result: wOBA .245 → .176; ISO .082 → .051; BABIP .251 → .219. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Curt Casalilast yr '24 career totals — 10 seasons, 1,566 PA	2.4	1,566	47	2	217	311	367	+28	+19	7.8	7.9
/162	664	20	1	+11.9	+7.9	3.3	pk7: 8
#2Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	2.5	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#3Marc Hill'73-'86 * career totals — 10 seasons, 2,047 PA	3.1	2,047	34	1	218*	292*	337*	+35	-0	2.6	3.3
/162	664	11	0	+11.4	-0.0	0.8	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 6 projected seasons	2.7	1,794	36	21	200	281	316	+32	+24	2.0	2.0
/162	664	13	8	+11.9	+8.9	0.8	pk7: 2
#4Chad Moeller'00-'10 * career totals — 10 seasons, 1,539 PA	2.3	1,539	29	2	218*	277*	341*	+27	-0	-0.2	1.0
/162	664	13	1	+11.6	-0.1	-0.1	pk7: 2
#5Steve Swisher'74-'82 * career totals — 7 seasons, 1,577 PA	2.4	1,577	20	4	211*	275*	330*	+28	+0	-0.1	0.6
/162	664	8	2	+11.9	+0.0	-0.0	pk7: 1
#6Mike Ryan'64-'74 * career totals — 9 seasons, 2,098 PA	3.2	2,098	28	4	196*	257*	311*	+38	+0	-1.9	-0.9
/162	664	9	1	+11.9	+0.0	-0.6	pk7: 0

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Nick Montgomery (OGILVIE)	21	20	25	40	45	182/267/277	94	257	2	2	30%	9%	57	-0.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Rudy van Heydoorn 2010 · A	21	31	39→40	40→50	43	157/245/233	76	238	7	8	35%	8%	39	-3.1	186/267/280	94	282	8	5	34%	9%	57	-1.8	172/284/270	98	232	9	2	27%	12%	64	-0.5
✕Luis Sanchez 2008 · A	21	37	36→30	45→40	45	179/256/239	60	261	4	7	31%	8%	44	-2.8	203/263/257	54	283	2	4	27%	7%	49	-2.4	198/256/242	45	274	1	2	26%	7%	41	-1.4
✕Franklin Tineo 2016 · A	21	34	36→40	41→50	50	164/251/229	65	218	4	7	25%	9%	40	-3.0	171/250/245	74	225	5	10	24%	8%	43	-2.8	151/236/222	71	188	5	13	21%	9%	31	-1.3
✕Steven Baron 2012 · A	21	34	39→45	45→50	36	174/218/258	84	255	7	7	34%	5%	32	-3.6	190/226/284	94	268	6	9	30%	4%	41	-3.0	236/292/311	74	314	4	8	24%	7%	69	-0.4
✕Jose Cordoba 2023 · A	20	37	41→40	44→55	40	185/250/278	93	262	9	9	32%	6%	50	-2.3	205/259/296	91	278	6	11	27%	6%	57	-1.8	203/257/294	91	267	4	15	24%	5%	53	-0.9
✕David Narodowski 2011 · A	22	37	39→40	42→45	47	184/261/266	82	248	8	7	28%	8%	52	-2.2	202/262/288	86	282	6	8	29%	7%	57	-1.8	189/242/263	74	261	4	7	28%	7%	40	-0.7
✕Victor Duarte 2022 · A	21	38	38→30	48→45	42	185/249/264	79	253	5	7	28%	6%	47	-2.6	199/274/279	80	289	6	6	31%	7%	59	-1.6	182/251/245	63	250	5	11	28%	7%	41	-0.8
✕Gerardo Bustamante 2008 · A	22	38	39→40	42→50	40	189/236/271	83	258	7	4	30%	6%	42	-2.9	198/259/276	78	270	5	5	27%	7%	53	-2.1	219/256/297	79	272	10	12	23%	4%	52	-0.7
✕Anderson De Los Santos 2024 · A	20	39→38	40	43→50	40	192/247/282	89	269	7	8	30%	6%	49	-2.4	183/261/280	97	274	9	12	34%	9%	55	-1.9	173/266/275	101	253	10	13	33%	10%	53	-1.5
✕Adrian Abreu 2012 · A	21	37	37→30	46→55	50	177/256/249	71	223	4	9	21%	8%	46	-2.6	192/277/264	72	230	5	17	18%	10%	57	-1.8	176/273/236	60	201	6	25	15%	11%	49	-0.8
✕Imbewer Alvarez 2007 · A	21	39	38→40	45→55	39	187/243/268	81	270	4	8	31%	6%	45	-2.7	194/262/265	71	270	4	15	28%	7%	51	-2.2	186/265/247	62	244	4	22	24%	8%	47	-0.7
✕Tanner Murphy 2016 · A	21	33	40	47→50	41	172/235/262	90	249	8	3	33%	7%	40	-3.0	180/249/255	75	248	7	3	28%	8%	45	-2.7	163/240/218	54	222	5	2	27%	8%	31	-1.4
✕Jheremy Vargas 2023 · A	20	36	37→30	45→55	47	171/271/240	69	273	5	10	36%	11%	51	-2.3	188/263/248	60	262	4	16	27%	9%	49	-2.4	188/252/233	45	242	3	17	22%	7%	38	-1.6
✕Willy Diaz 2015 · A	21	33	35→40	45→40	50	160/258/217	57	223	3	5	27%	10%	41	-3.0	176/256/247	71	278	4	4	35%	8%	46	-2.6	168/246/241	74	269	4	2	36%	8%	39	-1.1
✕Jose Meza 2024 · A	21	43→42	39→40	44→50	50	203/296/287	84	284	7	7	29%	10%	70	-0.8	197/287/295	98	292	9	10	33%	10%	69	-0.9	186/278/281	95	274	9	12	33%	9%	61	-1.1
✕Ariel Baez 2012 · A	21	36	38→40	43→45	46	176/252/255	79	230	5	5	25%	7%	47	-2.6	186/247/259	73	254	4	6	27%	6%	44	-2.8	148/209/202	54	199	2	6	25%	6%	15	-1.5
✕Andy Paz 2015 · A	22	37	38→40	45	45	183/243/257	74	248	5	5	28%	7%	42	-2.9	217/271/283	66	297	4	6	26%	7%	58	-1.7	245/291/294	49	311	2	7	21%	6%	64	-0.4
✕Luis Palacios 2010 · A	21	38	39→30	46→50	37	187/233/269	82	257	6	5	29%	4%	40	-3.0	193/240/271	78	304	5	7	36%	5%	43	-2.8	142/192/178	36	239	0	6	38%	6%	1	-1.0
✕Randy Florentino 2022 · A	22	34	40→45	43→45	40	170/238/253	83	272	8	6	38%	8%	40	-3.1	191/245/278	87	263	9	6	29%	6%	48	-2.5	183/231/259	76	238	8	4	26%	5%	37	-1.0
✕Luis De La Cruz 2010 · A	21	41	38→30	47→30	41	200/236/278	78	248	5	6	22%	4%	43	-2.8	222/254/314	92	278	5	6	21%	4%	58	-1.7	247/269/327	80	297	3	3	18%	3%	63	-0.4

Nick Montgomery

Career Stats + Projections

How the minor-league lines were translated

Career Comps

Career Path Comps