Rayner Arias

OF ACL Giants

Age 21 R/R 6'0" / 206 lbs ROK HR -15%H -3% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2038

Overview

ROKPROSPECTMiLBFA 2039

MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	19	ASF	30	.040/.143/.040	0	1	-58	—	.038/.107/.038
2025	19	ROKSF	178	.242/.335/.366	3	4	29	—	.162/.239/.238
2026	20	ROKSF	120	.196/.345/.361	4	3	30	—	.127/.252/.235
2027PROJ0% MLB	21	MLBSF	230	.186/.249/.272	3	3	48	-0.5
2028PROJ34% MLB	22	MLBSF	74	.188/.253/.281	1	1	54	-0.3

Next 2 projected WAR -0.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2038Service0.0First FA2039

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029Ext$0.0M2030Ext$0.0M2031Ext$0.0M2032Ext$0.0M2033Ext$0.9M2034Ext$1.0M+4

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 Rk

Chase%75

ISO71

Z-Con%55

Speed43

Whiff%34

wRC+30

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 99%

CompsVictor Duarte (age 21) · Orlando Sandoval (age 21) · Luis Palacios (age 21)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 118 proj PA

wRC+†48

AVG/OBP/SLG.184 / .247 / .270

PA118

HR1

K%32

BB%6

ISO86

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

trajectory · projected WAR by year

Tools · ContractCON 30 / POW 30

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT30

scouting grade only

POWER30

scouting grade only

EYE30

scouting grade only

SPEED45

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2033

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2038

First FA Year 2039

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2033
2029	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2038	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2023	17	ROK	DSL Giants Black	—	76	58	24	6	2	4	15	11	2	4	2	414	547	793	1.340	379	455	14	20	553	129	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK	ACL Giants	—	105	88	22	8	1	0	12	27	5	3	3	250	371	364	735	114	361	26	11	340	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	A	San Jose Giants	—	30	25	1	0	0	0	2	9	1	1	0	40	143	40	183		56	30	7	101	-58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK	ACL Giants	—	178	153	37	6	2	3	15	46	7	4	2	242	335	366	701	124	321	26	8	316	29	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	ROK	ACL Giants	—	120	97	19	4	0	4	13	39	9	3	0	196	345	361	705	165	273	32	11	326	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Giants Black	—	76	62	16	4	1	2	11	13	2	4	2	258	387	452	838	194	287	17	14	359	129	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	ACL Giants	—	105	93	15	5	1	0	7	39	5	3	3	161	257	237	494	75	281	37	7	226	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	A MLE	San Jose Giants	—	30	26	1	0	0	0	1	13	1	1	0	38	107	38	146		53	43	3	83	-58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	ACL Giants	—	178	160	26	4	1	2	9	63	7	4	2	163	239	237	476	75	240	35	5	211	29	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	ROK MLE	ACL Giants	—	120	102	13	2	0	3	8	56	9	3	0	127	252	235	487	108	214	47	7	213	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Giants Black	—	76	62	16	4	1	2	11	13	2	4	2	258	387	452	838	194	292	17	14	359	129	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK RAW	DSL Giants Black	—	76	58	24	6	2	4	15	11	2	4	2	414	547	793	1.340	379	455	14	20	553	129	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	ACL Giants	—	105	93	15	5	1	0	7	39	5	3	3	161	257	237	494	75	278	37	7	226	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK RAW	ACL Giants	—	105	88	22	8	1	0	12	27	5	3	3	250	371	364	735	114	361	26	11	340	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	208	186	27	4	1	2	10	76	8	5	2	145	221	210	430	65	223	37	5	193	16	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK RAW	2 teams	—	208	178	38	6	2	3	17	55	8	5	2	213	309	320	629	107	282	26	8	285	16	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	ROK MLE	ACL Giants	—	120	102	13	2	0	3	8	56	9	3	0	127	252	235	487	108	227	47	7	213	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	ROK RAW	ACL Giants	—	120	97	19	4	0	4	13	39	9	3	0	196	345	361	705	165	273	32	11	326	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK MLE	DSL Giants Black	—	76	63	16	4	1	2	11	13	2	4	2	254	387	444	831	190	287	17	14	359	129	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK MLE	ACL Giants	—	105	92	15	5	1	0	7	39	5	3	3	163	257	239	496	76	281	37	7	226	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	208	188	27	4	1	2	10	76	8	5	2	144	221	207	428	64	213	37	5	193	16	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	ROK MLE	ACL Giants	—	120	102	13	2	0	3	8	56	9	3	0	127	252	235	487	108	214	47	7	213	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	18	ROK MLE	ACL Giants	—	105	92	15	5	1	0	7	39	5	3	3	163	257	239	496	76	281	37	7	226	39	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	208	188	27	4	1	2	10	76	8	5	2	144	221	207	428	64	213	37	5	193	16	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	20	ROK MLE	ACL Giants	—	120	102	13	2	0	3	8	56	9	3	0	127	252	235	487	108	214	47	7	213	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	21	MLB MLE	SF	0%	230	211	39	7	1	3	13	73	4	3	1	186	249	272	522	86	268	32	6	239	48	-14	+0	+0	-1	+5	-0.5
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	22	MLB MLE	SF	34%	214	195	37	7	1	3	13	67	4	3	1	191	256	287	543	96	270	31	6	247	54	-12	+0	+0	-1	+5	-0.8
2028	22	MLB CTX	SF	34%	74	69	12	2	0	1	4	23	1	1	0	188	253	281	534	92	267	31	5	244	54	-4	+0	+0	-0	+2	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	74	69	12	2	0	1	4	23	1	1	0	174	230	246	476	72	244	31	5	244	45	-4	+0	+0	-0	+2	-0.3
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	606	106	18	0	9	35	202	9	9	0	175	231	249	480	74	246	31	5	244	45	-36	+2	+0	-4	+14	-2.4
Career	—	MLE		—	841	746	128	26	5	11	56	289	30	20	9	172	257	264	521	92	258	34	7	235	45	-19	+0	+0	-2	+7	-1.4
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	577	99	20	4	9	43	223	23	15	7	172	257	267	524	95	256	34	7	235	45	-38	+0	+0	-4	+14	-2.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Rayner Arias (OGILVIE)	21	30	30	45	30	184/247/270	85	268	1	2	32%	6%	48	-0.5	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Victor Duarte 2022 · A	21	38	38→30	48→45	42	185/249/264	79	253	5	7	28%	6%	47	-2.6	199/274/279	80	289	6	6	31%	7%	59	-1.6	182/251/245	63	250	5	11	28%	7%	41	-0.8
✕Orlando Sandoval 2007 · A	21	37	38→40	46→50	36	181/230/261	81	267	5	9	33%	5%	38	-3.2	199/233/277	78	317	5	8	37%	3%	42	-2.9	209/253/309	99	321	7	9	35%	3%	54	-1.0
✕Luis Palacios 2010 · A	21	38	39→30	46→50	37	187/233/269	82	257	6	5	29%	4%	40	-3.0	193/240/271	78	304	5	7	36%	5%	43	-2.8	142/192/178	36	239	0	6	38%	6%	1	-1.0
✕Justin Twine 2017 · A	21	38→33	37→40	45→50	29	184/222/254	70	294	4	7	38%	3%	33	-3.6	200/239/281	81	297	5	9	33%	3%	46	-2.6	216/252/305	89	320	6	14	33%	3%	54	-1.1
✕Misael Urbina 2023 · A	21	38→32	41→40	49→50	45	190/258/293	104	259	8	12	29%	8%	57	-1.8	179/258/267	88	262	6	9	31%	9%	51	-2.3	166/253/247	81	240	5	8	30%	10%	42	-1.7
✕Daniel Berg 2006 · A	21	38	37→40	44→40	40	184/249/253	69	256	5	9	29%	6%	45	-2.7	189/255/279	90	281	7	4	33%	7%	52	-2.2	188/258/276	89	278	8	2	33%	7%	51	-1.2
✕Juan De La Rosa 2019 · A	21	37	37→40	48→55	36	181/227/258	77	272	4	10	34%	5%	36	-3.4	189/253/267	78	278	4	12	31%	6%	49	-2.4	161/241/232	71	231	3	20	29%	6%	35	-1.2
✕Anthony Rodriguez 2017 · A	21	30	37→30	38→45	41	151/215/217	66	210	4	4	29%	6%	23	-4.3	173/273/238	65	252	3	6	29%	10%	51	-2.2	139/281/181	43	201	2	5	28%	14%	41	-1.2
✕Anderson De Los Santos 2024 · A	20	39→38	40	43→50	40	192/247/282	89	269	7	8	30%	6%	49	-2.4	183/261/280	97	274	9	12	34%	9%	55	-1.9	173/266/275	101	253	10	13	33%	10%	53	-1.5
✕Rafael Mejia 2018 · A	20	34	41→30	47→50	37	178/224/272	94	244	9	6	31%	5%	38	-3.2	210/249/338	128	300	15	8	34%	4%	63	-1.3	203/230/369	166	271	24	10	35%	2%	59	-0.4
✕Franklin Hernandez 2008 · A	21	39→36	36→45	47→40	38	186/238/255	69	277	4	6	33%	5%	39	-3.1	194/233/283	89	290	6	4	33%	4%	44	-2.8	183/219/273	90	269	6	2	33%	3%	33	-1.7
✕Lizandro Espinoza 2024 · A	21	31→24	39→45	47→60	38	161/223/240	80	247	7	10	36%	6%	31	-3.7	167/231/270	103	253	11	20	37%	7%	42	-2.9	159/229/271	111	233	12	30	36%	7%	39	-1.8
✕Luis Sanchez 2008 · A	21	37	36→30	45→40	45	179/256/239	60	261	4	7	31%	8%	44	-2.8	203/263/257	54	283	2	4	27%	7%	49	-2.4	198/256/242	45	274	1	2	26%	7%	41	-1.4
✕Francisco Garcia 2024 · A	21	36	39→40	43→50	33	175/237/259	84	291	7	5	40%	5%	41	-3.0	177/232/258	81	289	6	5	39%	5%	38	-3.2	143/196/212	69	231	6	4	39%	4%	15	-1.4
✕Onil Pena 2018 · A	21	40→26	39→40	46→30	39	192/251/274	82	281	6	6	32%	6%	49	-2.4	178/248/277	99	304	9	2	41%	7%	50	-2.3	152/229/258	106	256	11	0	42%	7%	36	-1.9
✕Will Verdung 2024 · A	21	45→40	38→30	45→50	40	211/271/287	76	321	6	9	34%	7%	59	-1.6	202/278/262	60	280	3	10	26%	9%	57	-1.8	198/276/253	55	267	3	11	25%	9%	53	-1.3
✕Joey Paciorek 2010 · A	21	38	37→30	47→50	43	185/253/256	71	263	5	9	30%	7%	46	-2.6	196/256/270	74	291	4	7	32%	6%	50	-2.3	199/252/284	84	281	6	2	30%	6%	50	-0.6
✕Romer Cuadrado 2019 · A	21	42→36	39→40	46→45	36	195/248/280	85	318	7	7	39%	6%	49	-2.4	201/255/297	96	323	9	5	38%	6%	56	-1.9	193/250/290	97	310	12	2	39%	6%	51	-1.3
✕Miguel Rodriguez 2007 · A	20	33	36→40	48→45	37	167/215/229	63	235	4	6	30%	4%	25	-4.1	188/247/257	69	240	3	5	22%	5%	44	-2.8	183/247/250	66	227	3	3	19%	5%	41	-1.3
✕Jose Cordoba 2023 · A	20	37	41→40	44→55	40	185/250/278	93	262	9	9	32%	6%	50	-2.3	205/259/296	91	278	6	11	27%	6%	57	-1.8	203/257/294	91	267	4	15	24%	5%	53	-0.9