Samuel Perez
P
ACL Reds
Age 21
RHP
6'1" / 185 lbs
ROK
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037
peak 0.4 · 2027
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 35 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 143134vR 124
ERA5.51
FIP5.51
K%10.1%
BB%10.1%
K-BB%0.0%
ROS IP36
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 35 IP
Grades · Contract
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 19 | ROK | DSL Reds | 12 | 9 | 45 | 178 | 36 | 12 | 2 | 75% | 3.8 | 13.8% | 8.4% | 5.3% | 1.2% | 2.60 | 3.68 | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK | DSL Reds | 12 | 9 | 45 | 178 | 36 | 12 | 2 | 75% | 3.8 | 20.2% | 6.7% | 13.5% | 1.1% | 2.60 | 2.88 | — |
| 2025 | 20 | ROK | ACL Reds | 12 | 8 | 45 | 206 | 31 | 10 | 5 | 67% | 3.7 | 10.2% | 6.1% | 4.2% | 2.3% | 8.26 | 4.25 | — |
| 2025 | 20 | ROK | ACL Reds | 12 | 8 | 45 | 206 | 31 | 10 | 5 | 67% | 3.7 | 15.0% | 4.9% | 10.2% | 2.4% | 8.26 | 3.84 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 21 | MLB | CIN | 7 | 7 | 36 | 151 | 15 | 15 | 4 | 100% | 5.1 | 10.1% | 10.1% | 0.0% | 2.9% | 5.51 | 5.51 | -0.4 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | CIN | 7 | 7 | 38 | 158 | 21 | 15 | 5 | 100% | 5.4 | 13.5% | 9.6% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 5.23 | 5.13 | -0.3 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB | CIN | 7 | 7 | 39 | 164 | 26 | 15 | 5 | 100% | 5.6 | 15.7% | 9.3% | 6.4% | 2.8% | 5.00 | 4.89 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB | CIN | 7 | 7 | 40 | 168 | 29 | 15 | 5 | 100% | 5.7 | 17.0% | 9.0% | 7.9% | 2.8% | 4.83 | 4.74 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB | CIN | 7 | 7 | 40 | 171 | 30 | 15 | 5 | 100% | 5.8 | 17.6% | 8.9% | 8.7% | 2.8% | 4.72 | 4.66 | -0.1 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB | CIN | 7 | 7 | 40 | 171 | 31 | 15 | 5 | 100% | 5.8 | 17.9% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 2.8% | 4.67 | 4.63 | -0.0 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB | CIN | 7 | 7 | 40 | 168 | 30 | 15 | 5 | 100% | 5.7 | 17.9% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 2.9% | 4.67 | 4.67 | -0.1 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB | CIN | 6 | 6 | 39 | 163 | 29 | 15 | 5 | 100% | 6.4 | 17.8% | 9.1% | 8.7% | 2.9% | 4.72 | 4.75 | -0.1 |
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | CIN | 3 | 3 | 18 | 76 | 10 | 7 | 2 | 100% | 6.0 | 13.5% | 9.6% | 3.9% | 2.9% | 5.27 | 5.17 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB | CIN | 5 | 5 | 28 | 118 | 19 | 11 | 3 | 100% | 5.6 | 15.7% | 9.3% | 6.4% | 2.9% | 5.04 | 4.93 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB | CIN | 6 | 6 | 33 | 139 | 24 | 13 | 4 | 100% | 5.5 | 17.0% | 9.0% | 7.9% | 2.9% | 4.87 | 4.78 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB | CIN | 6 | 6 | 36 | 152 | 27 | 14 | 4 | 100% | 6.0 | 17.6% | 8.9% | 8.7% | 2.9% | 4.76 | 4.70 | -0.1 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB | CIN | 6 | 6 | 37 | 156 | 28 | 14 | 4 | 100% | 6.2 | 17.9% | 8.9% | 9.0% | 2.9% | 4.71 | 4.67 | -0.1 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB | CIN | 6 | 6 | 37 | 156 | 28 | 14 | 5 | 100% | 6.2 | 17.9% | 9.0% | 8.9% | 2.9% | 4.71 | 4.71 | -0.1 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB | CIN | 6 | 6 | 36 | 152 | 27 | 14 | 5 | 100% | 6.0 | 17.8% | 9.1% | 8.7% | 3.0% | 4.76 | 4.79 | -0.1 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 39 | 39 | 225 | 952 | 162 | 86 | 28 | 100% | 5.8 | 17.1% | 9.1% | 8.0% | 2.9% | 4.84 | 4.41 | +2.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 35 | 35 | 200 | 844 | 144 | 76 | 25 | 100% | 5.8 | 17.1% | 9.1% | 8.0% | 2.9% | 4.84 | 4.41 | +2.3 | ||
| Career | — | 24 | 17 | 90 | 384 | 46 | 28 | 7 | 71% | 3.7 | 11.9% | 7.2% | 4.7% | 1.8% | 5.42 | 3.99 | +1.3 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 54 | 38 | 200 | 857 | 102 | 61 | 15 | 71% | 3.7 | 11.9% | 7.2% | 4.7% | 1.8% | 5.42 | 3.99 | +3.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Samuel Perez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.51 | 10.1% | 10.1% | 2.9% | — | 4.92 | 15.4% | 6.1% | 116 | -0.59 | — | — | — |
| Abel Duarte R 2026 · 4.84 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.84 | 12.5% | 10.3% | 2.7% | .306 | 3.93 | 13.9% | 6.7% | 79 | -0.91 | 3.19 | 127 | 88 |
| Ramon Santos R 2026 · 5.00 FIP | 21 | SP- | 5.00 | 12.7% | 10.6% | 3.0% | .323 | 4.24 | 15.6% | 5.5% | 199 | -0.76 | 3.84 | 355 | 88 |
| Juan Gomez R 2025 · 5.39 FIP | 20 | SP- | 5.39 | 10.9% | 12.6% | 2.9% | .345 | 3.58 | 11.2% | -0.1% | 61 | -1.81 | 3.58 | 113 | 85 |
| Jeremiah Burke R 2026 · 4.88 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.88 | 11.9% | 9.3% | 2.9% | .330 | 3.83 | 15.7% | 8.1% | 34 | -1.05 | 3.83 | 137 | 84 |
| Will Childers R 2027 · 5.30 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.30 | 11.8% | 12.1% | 3.0% | .305 | 4.22 | 20.1% | 9.0% | 143 | -1.08 | 3.50 | 202 | 84 |
| Wuilberth Mendez R 2026 · 5.18 FIP | 21 | SP- | 5.18 | 13.2% | 8.9% | 3.8% | .293 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.81 | 137 | 83 |
| Logan Sendelbach R 2026 · 5.31 FIP | 21 | SP | 5.31 | 11.4% | 9.2% | 3.7% | .300 | 4.63 | 12.8% | 4.3% | 297 | -0.68 | 4.06 | 340 | 83 |
| Abel Brito R 2026 · 4.94 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.94 | 15.7% | 12.6% | 2.8% | .310 | 5.83 | 13.2% | -8.6% | 70 | +0.89 | 4.13 | 147 | 82 |
| Alex Romero R 2027 · 4.38 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.38 | 10.6% | 8.9% | 1.9% | .314 | 4.41 | 13.8% | 6.0% | 168 | +0.03 | 4.31 | 235 | 82 |
| Jeury Espinal R 2024 · 5.08 FIP | 19 | SP- | 5.08 | 11.7% | 12.6% | 2.5% | .328 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.25 | 114 | 81 |
| Moises Ruiz R 2025 · 5.62 FIP | 20 | SP- | 5.62 | 8.7% | 12.8% | 3.0% | .330 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.57 | 104 | 81 |
| Dillon Drabble R 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 21 | SP- | 4.60 | 11.2% | 11.6% | 1.8% | .370 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.41 | 110 | 81 |
| Jonathan Heasley R 2026 · 4.68 FIP | 21 | SP | 4.68 | 10.5% | 8.8% | 2.5% | .297 | 4.70 | 20.0% | 11.6% | 233 | +0.02 | 3.81 | 607 | 81 |
| Luis Mateo R 2027 · 5.17 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.17 | 11.4% | 14.7% | 2.1% | .315 | 5.67 | 15.0% | -1.3% | 55 | +0.50 | 4.52 | 112 | 81 |
| Dylan File R 2026 · 5.69 FIP | 21 | SP- | 5.69 | 12.3% | 7.9% | 4.8% | .297 | 3.66 | 16.4% | 11.7% | 283 | -2.03 | 2.98 | 795 | 80 |
| Ben Hansen R 2028 · 4.86 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.86 | 12.5% | 11.9% | 2.4% | .372 | 4.29 | 21.5% | 13.2% | 88 | -0.57 | 4.29 | 149 | 79 |
| David Rodriguez R 2027 · 4.41 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.41 | 13.5% | 11.7% | 1.8% | .316 | 3.77 | 17.7% | 10.1% | 102 | -0.64 | 3.66 | 161 | 79 |
| Edgar Escalona R 2025 · 4.41 FIP | 20 | SP- | 4.41 | 8.5% | 7.8% | 1.9% | .337 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.65 | 146 | 79 |
| Miguel Rondon R 2026 · 5.13 FIP | 21 | SP- | 5.13 | 15.5% | 11.4% | 3.5% | .289 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.62 | 179 | 79 |
| Jace Vines R 2026 · 5.07 FIP | 21 | SP | 5.07 | 9.3% | 8.3% | 3.1% | .362 | 4.52 | 11.3% | 3.2% | 327 | -0.55 | 3.33 | 479 | 79 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 8 | 39 | 16.0% | 9.2% | 1.10 | 4.91 |
| Shane Greene ('21) | 7 | 56 | 21.4% | 8.5% | 1.16 | 4.67 |
| Drew VerHagen ('23) | 6 | 43 | 19.7% | 9.4% | 1.40 | 4.82 |
| Wily Peralta ('22) | 7 | 71 | 16.1% | 9.8% | 1.22 | 4.66 |
| T.J. McFarland ('24) | 9 | 44 | 13.2% | 7.6% | 0.86 | 4.28 |
| Jacob Barnes ('24) | 7 | 42 | 22.1% | 9.6% | 1.21 | 4.58 |
| Luis Cessa ('23) | 8 | 53 | 18.3% | 7.8% | 1.40 | 4.43 |