Samuel Perez
P
ACL Reds
+0.0
WAR
Age 21
RHP
6'1" / 185 lbs
ROK
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037
peak 0.5 · 2030
ERA4.39
FIP4.39
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%21.4%
BB%8.8%
K-BB%12.6%
IP38
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.5peak
2030
K†5060
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 19 | ROK | DSL Reds | 12 | 9 | 45 | 178 | 36 | 12 | 2 | 13.8% | 8.4% | 1.2% | 2.60 | 3.68 | +0.6 |
| 2025 | 20 | ROK | ACL Reds | 12 | 8 | 45 | 206 | 31 | 10 | 5 | 10.2% | 6.1% | 2.5% | 8.26 | 4.35 | +0.3 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 21 | MLB | CIN | 38 | — | 38 | 161 | 34 | 14 | 5 | 21.4% | 8.8% | 2.9% | 4.39 | 4.39 | +0.2 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB | CIN | 40 | — | 40 | 169 | 38 | 14 | 5 | 22.5% | 8.4% | 2.9% | 4.28 | 4.22 | +0.3 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB | CIN | 42 | — | 42 | 175 | 41 | 14 | 5 | 23.3% | 8.1% | 2.8% | 4.17 | 4.10 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 24 | MLB | CIN | 42 | — | 42 | 179 | 43 | 14 | 5 | 23.8% | 7.9% | 2.8% | 4.08 | 4.02 | +0.4 |
| 2030 | 25 | MLB | CIN | 43 | — | 43 | 182 | 44 | 14 | 5 | 24.2% | 7.8% | 2.8% | 4.02 | 3.97 | +0.5 |
| 2031 | 26 | MLB | CIN | 43 | — | 43 | 182 | 44 | 14 | 5 | 24.4% | 7.8% | 2.8% | 3.98 | 3.95 | +0.5 |
| 2032 | 27 | MLB | CIN | 43 | — | 43 | 180 | 44 | 14 | 5 | 24.4% | 7.8% | 2.8% | 3.97 | 3.96 | +0.5 |
| 2033 | 28 | MLB | CIN | 42 | — | 42 | 178 | 43 | 14 | 5 | 24.4% | 7.9% | 2.9% | 3.98 | 3.98 | +0.5 |
| 2034 | 29 | MLB | CIN | 41 | — | 41 | 174 | 42 | 14 | 5 | 24.3% | 8.0% | 2.9% | 4.01 | 4.03 | +0.4 |
| 2035 | 30 | MLB | CIN | 40 | — | 40 | 169 | 41 | 14 | 5 | 24.1% | 8.1% | 3.0% | 4.06 | 4.09 | +0.4 |
| 2036 | 31 | MLB | CIN | 39 | — | 39 | 163 | 39 | 13 | 5 | 23.8% | 8.2% | 3.0% | 4.12 | 4.17 | +0.3 |
| 2037 | 32 | MLB | CIN | 37 | — | 37 | 157 | 37 | 13 | 5 | 23.6% | 8.3% | 3.1% | 4.20 | 4.25 | +0.3 |
| 2038 | 33 | MLB | CIN | 35 | — | 35 | 149 | 35 | 13 | 5 | 23.2% | 8.5% | 3.2% | 4.29 | 4.35 | +0.2 |
| 2039 | 34 | MLB | CIN | 34 | — | 34 | 142 | 32 | 12 | 5 | 22.9% | 8.7% | 3.3% | 4.39 | 4.46 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 24 | 17 | 90 | 384 | 46 | 28 | 7 | 11.9% | 7.2% | 1.9% | 5.42 | 4.04 | +1.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 54 | 38 | 200 | 857 | 103 | 62 | 16 | 11.9% | 7.2% | 1.9% | 5.42 | 4.04 | +2.9 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Samuel Perez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.39 | 21.4% | 8.8% | 2.9% | — | 4.11 | 23.2% | 15.1% | 124 | -0.28 | — | — | — |
| Logan Lombana R 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.63 | 16.9% | 10.0% | 3.1% | .315 | 4.01 | 15.7% | 8.1% | 123 | -0.62 | 3.80 | 155 | 96 |
| Josnier Parra R 2026 · 4.53 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.53 | 15.9% | 9.8% | 2.8% | .319 | 4.37 | 9.8% | 1.9% | 70 | -0.16 | 3.79 | 102 | 93 |
| Austin Mason R 2026 · 4.41 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.41 | 17.1% | 11.6% | 2.4% | .289 | 4.06 | 16.2% | 6.5% | 151 | -0.35 | 3.60 | 179 | 92 |
| Tyler Gray R 2026 · 4.49 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.49 | 18.2% | 11.7% | 2.6% | .333 | 4.39 | 11.9% | 3.6% | 72 | -0.10 | 4.39 | 119 | 91 |
| Brandon Komar R 2025 · 4.74 FIP | 20 | SU | 4.74 | 17.7% | 11.6% | 3.0% | .327 | 4.93 | 16.7% | 5.7% | 198 | +0.19 | 3.03 | 538 | 91 |
| Mike Morrison R 2027 · 4.86 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.86 | 17.3% | 10.7% | 3.4% | .280 | 4.00 | 19.0% | 7.1% | 128 | -0.86 | 3.32 | 145 | 91 |
| Logan Gragg R 2025 · 4.12 FIP | 20 | SU | 4.12 | 17.4% | 9.5% | 2.3% | .343 | 5.21 | 15.2% | 8.2% | 202 | +1.09 | 4.12 | 412 | 91 |
| Ryan Atkinson R 2028 · 4.58 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.58 | 18.4% | 11.3% | 2.9% | .315 | 4.48 | 21.6% | 9.0% | 305 | -0.10 | 4.15 | 338 | 90 |
| Jayson McKinley R 2028 · 4.39 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.39 | 17.5% | 11.4% | 2.4% | .308 | 3.59 | 20.4% | 11.3% | 134 | -0.80 | 2.36 | 173 | 89 |
| Tyler Zombro R 2027 · 4.37 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.37 | 14.6% | 8.9% | 2.5% | .295 | 2.67 | 15.7% | 12.7% | 134 | -1.70 | 2.22 | 172 | 89 |
| Reece Karalus R 2027 · 4.79 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.79 | 18.5% | 8.6% | 4.0% | .298 | 4.79 | 14.8% | 4.1% | 103 | -0.00 | 4.73 | 149 | 89 |
| Andrew Bash R 2027 · 3.87 FIP | 22 | SU | 3.87 | 18.0% | 9.2% | 2.1% | .273 | 4.22 | 14.9% | 4.8% | 146 | +0.35 | 3.63 | 428 | 89 |
| Matt Pidich R 2028 · 4.42 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.42 | 17.1% | 8.3% | 3.1% | .303 | 4.09 | 20.8% | 13.3% | 115 | -0.33 | 4.07 | 196 | 88 |
| Simon Mathews R 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.09 | 17.7% | 7.5% | 2.8% | .326 | 4.43 | 16.0% | 5.9% | 167 | +0.34 | 4.09 | 215 | 88 |
| Audry Lugo R 2025 · 4.05 FIP | 20 | SU | 4.05 | 18.5% | 11.4% | 2.0% | .247 | 5.31 | 15.6% | -0.4% | 77 | +1.26 | 4.05 | 113 | 88 |
| Jordany Ventura R 2024 · 4.08 FIP | 19 | SU | 4.08 | 16.8% | 8.9% | 2.3% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.08 | 219 | 88 |
| Jordan Mikel R 2027 · 4.49 FIP | 22 | SU | 4.49 | 20.5% | 12.5% | 2.8% | .330 | 4.17 | 19.2% | 9.0% | 109 | -0.32 | 3.05 | 195 | 88 |
| Jeremy Beasley R 2026 · 4.71 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.71 | 19.5% | 11.6% | 3.3% | .273 | 4.09 | 17.7% | 8.7% | 234 | -0.62 | 3.17 | 337 | 88 |
| Wellington Diaz R 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 21 | SU | 4.85 | 16.4% | 12.6% | 2.8% | .315 | 5.79 | 20.0% | 2.8% | 59 | +0.94 | 3.29 | 172 | 88 |
| Jared Ruxer R 2028 · 4.16 FIP | 23 | SU | 4.16 | 17.3% | 10.6% | 2.1% | .333 | 4.25 | 14.9% | 7.5% | 240 | +0.09 | 3.41 | 270 | 88 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2032
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2037
First FA Year 2038
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2030 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2031 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2032 | |||
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.9M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +0.5 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2034 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +0.4 | $2M | +$1M |
| 2035 | Ext / FA-deal | $0.4M | +0.4 | $2M | +$2M |
| 2036 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| 2037 | Ext | beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate | |||
| Totals | $3M | $9M | +$6M | ||