Samuel Perez — OGILVIE

Samuel Perez P ACL Reds

Age 22 RHP 6'1" / 185 lbs ROK peak 0.6 · 2028

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 45 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 133125vR 117

ERA5.27

FIP5.27

K%11.5%

BB%8.9%

K-BB%2.6%

ROS IP45

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 45 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF2020

CTRL5555

CMD3030

K†3040

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	12	9	45	178	36	12	2	75%	3.8	13.8%	8.4%	5.3%	1.4%	2.60	3.77	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	12	9	45	178	36	12	2	75%	3.8	13.8%	8.4%	5.3%	1.4%	2.60	3.77	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	DSL Reds	12	9	45	178	36	12	2	75%	3.8	20.2%	6.7%	13.5%	1.1%	2.60	2.88	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	12	8	45	206	31	10	5	67%	3.7	10.2%	6.1%	4.2%	2.7%	8.26	4.49	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	12	8	45	206	31	10	5	67%	3.7	10.2%	6.1%	4.2%	2.7%	8.26	4.49	—
2025	20	ROK RAW	ACL Reds	12	8	45	206	31	10	5	67%	3.7	15.0%	4.9%	10.2%	2.4%	8.26	3.84	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	22	MLB	CIN	9	9	45	190	22	17	6	100%	5.0	11.5%	8.9%	2.6%	3.0%	5.27	5.27	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	CIN	9	9	46	195	28	17	6	100%	5.1	14.4%	8.6%	5.7%	2.9%	5.05	4.97	-0.0
2029	24	MLB MLE	CIN	8	8	48	201	32	17	6	100%	5.9	16.1%	8.5%	7.7%	2.9%	4.87	4.79	+0.1
2030	25	MLB MLE	CIN	8	8	48	203	35	17	6	100%	6.0	17.2%	8.4%	8.8%	2.9%	4.75	4.69	+0.1
2031	26	MLB MLE	CIN	8	8	48	203	36	17	6	100%	6.0	17.6%	8.4%	9.3%	2.9%	4.68	4.64	+0.1
2032	27	MLB MLE	CIN	8	8	47	200	35	17	6	100%	5.9	17.6%	8.4%	9.2%	3.0%	4.68	4.68	+0.1
2028	23	MLB CTX	CIN	4	4	23	97	14	8	3	100%	5.8	14.4%	8.6%	5.7%	2.9%	5.05	4.97	-0.0
2029	24	MLB CTX	CIN	6	6	33	139	22	12	4	100%	5.5	16.1%	8.5%	7.7%	2.9%	4.87	4.79	+0.0
2030	25	MLB CTX	CIN	7	7	39	165	28	14	5	100%	5.6	17.2%	8.4%	8.8%	2.9%	4.75	4.69	+0.1
2031	26	MLB CTX	CIN	7	7	42	177	31	15	5	100%	6.0	17.6%	8.4%	9.3%	2.9%	4.68	4.64	+0.1
2032	27	MLB CTX	CIN	7	7	43	182	32	15	5	100%	6.1	17.6%	8.4%	9.2%	3.0%	4.68	4.68	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		31	31	180	759	128	64	22	100%	5.8	16.8%	8.4%	8.4%	2.9%	4.78	4.35	+1.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		34	34	200	844	142	71	24	100%	5.8	16.8%	8.4%	8.4%	2.9%	4.78	4.35	+1.3
Career	—	MLE		24	17	90	384	46	28	8	71%	3.7	11.9%	7.2%	4.7%	2.1%	5.42	4.16	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		54	38	200	857	102	61	18	71%	3.7	11.9%	7.2%	4.7%	2.1%	5.42	4.16	+0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Samuel Perez (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.27	11.5%	8.9%	3.0%	—	4.81	15.9%	7.4%	142	-0.46	—	—	—
Aaron Cook R 2002 · 4.83 FIP	23	SP-	4.83	9.1%	8.4%	2.6%	.301	4.27	7.8%	0.7%	304	-0.56	3.65	1,406	87
Jeremiah Burke R 2019 · 4.88 FIP	21	SP-	4.88	11.9%	9.3%	2.9%	.330	3.78	15.7%	8.1%	34	-1.10	3.78	137	85
Luke Prokopec R 2000 · 4.49 FIP	22	SP-	4.49	13.6%	10.2%	2.3%	.262	5.44	14.2%	7.6%	210	+0.95	4.49	231	85
Tyler McKay R 2019 · 5.32 FIP	21	SP-	5.32	15.1%	10.2%	4.0%	.262	4.64	13.2%	2.2%	106	-0.68	3.10	275	84
Alex Romero R 2015 · 4.38 FIP	22	SP-	4.38	10.6%	8.9%	1.9%	.314	4.68	13.8%	6.0%	168	+0.30	4.38	235	84
Drew McDaniel R 2023 · 4.71 FIP	22	SP	4.71	14.1%	9.1%	3.0%	.323	5.08	18.7%	8.7%	152	+0.37	4.24	230	83
Xavier Altamirano R 2016 · 4.72 FIP	22	SP-	4.72	11.3%	11.0%	2.1%	.333	4.51	14.7%	7.7%	388	-0.21	3.91	451	83
Will Childers R 2023 · 5.41 FIP	22	SP-	5.41	11.8%	12.1%	3.2%	.305	4.43	19.5%	8.9%	150	-0.98	3.60	209	83
Gavin Floyd R 2005 · 5.53 FIP	22	SP-	5.53	13.4%	11.0%	3.9%	.275	5.01	15.7%	8.1%	331	-0.52	2.95	1,250	82
Nick Trogrlic-Iverson R 2021 · 4.98 FIP	23	SP-	4.98	12.7%	9.1%	3.3%	.348	3.92	16.5%	8.0%	135	-1.06	3.30	218	82
Yair Lozoya R 2015 · 4.46 FIP	22	SP-	4.46	9.6%	6.5%	2.5%	.288	5.51	10.6%	4.8%	45	+1.05	4.46	172	82
Elizardo Ramirez R 2005 · 5.83 FIP	22	SP-	5.83	8.2%	7.3%	4.5%	.318	4.66	14.3%	7.8%	120	-1.17	4.24	158	82
Wellington Caceres R 2018 · 5.73 FIP	22	SP-	5.73	12.0%	11.4%	4.0%	.366	—	—	—	—	—	4.16	121	82
Dillon Tate R 2016 · 4.55 FIP	22	SP-	4.55	14.0%	10.6%	2.4%	.358	4.09	15.7%	8.6%	261	-0.46	3.02	630	81
Billy Buckner R 2007 · 5.43 FIP	23	SP-	5.43	11.9%	11.2%	3.5%	.305	4.73	18.3%	10.4%	104	-0.70	3.73	252	81
Lucas Long R 2015 · 4.84 FIP	22	SP-	4.84	14.5%	5.9%	4.0%	.300	3.94	15.0%	9.1%	386	-0.90	3.42	441	81
Nick Belzer R 2019 · 4.23 FIP	23	SP-	4.23	14.5%	9.1%	2.2%	.291	4.51	12.8%	4.2%	63	+0.28	4.23	112	80
Denny Bautista R 2004 · 4.20 FIP	23	SP-	4.20	13.4%	8.5%	2.1%	.380	4.35	14.1%	3.4%	77	+0.15	3.38	238	80
Nick Krauth R 2022 · 4.64 FIP	22	SP-	4.64	14.4%	8.9%	3.0%	.297	4.74	12.5%	2.5%	232	+0.10	4.50	424	80
David Rodriguez R 2024 · 4.50 FIP	22	SP-	4.50	13.5%	11.7%	1.9%	.316	3.85	16.9%	9.9%	125	-0.65	3.80	184	80

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 754 reliever careers (1990-2025).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.4	47	15.8%	8.5%	1.13	4.88
Vic Darensbourg ('05)	1.5	50	17.0%	9.3%	1.01	4.96
Vinnie Chulk ('12)	1.4	57	16.0%	9.0%	0.98	4.51
Travis Miller ('02)	1.3	45	16.3%	9.2%	0.91	5.05
Matt Whiteside ('05)	2.0	58	14.5%	8.8%	1.15	5.23
Carlos Almánzar ('05)	1.2	60	16.3%	7.9%	1.32	4.82
Tyler Walker ('10)	1.5	50	18.9%	8.5%	1.11	4.23