Abel Lorenzo — OGILVIE

Abel LorenzoC ACL Dodgers

Age 20 L/R 5'11" / 160 lbs ROK HR -6% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037

2026 ROS PROJECTION159 act + 106 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†37

AVG/OBP/SLG.175 / .238 / .237

PA106

HR1

SB6

K%35

BB%6

BABIP267

ISO62

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 25 / POW 40

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT25

scouting grade only

POWER40

scouting grade only

EYE48

scouting grade only

SPEED65

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.5M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.4	$0.9M	+$0.5M
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$2M	+$1M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	17	ROK	DSL LAD Mega	—	198	178	31	8	1	2	13	81	4	4	5	174	246	264	510	90	299	41	7	228	33	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	ROK	DSL LAD Mega	—	198	167	46	12	2	4	24	54	4	4	5	275	379	443	823	168	378	27	12	364	136	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK	DSL LAD Bautista	—	231	194	27	4	1	1	22	70	11	28	9	139	264	186	450	46	205	30	10	213	21	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	ROK	DSL LAD Bautista	—	231	177	35	5	2	2	39	48	11	28	9	198	374	282	657	85	252	21	17	314	99	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK	ACL Dodgers	—	139	131	14	2	0	1	6	69	1	5	1	107	152	145	297	38	210	50	4	142	-33	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	ROK	ACL Dodgers	—	139	127	23	4	0	3	10	47	1	5	1	181	246	283	530	102	256	34	7	242	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	20	ROK	LAD	—	159	150	31	6	0	3	4	62	4	18	7	207	247	307	554	100	326	39	3	233	37	-11	+1	+0	+3	+5	-0.3
YTD	20	ROK	LAD	—	159	147	43	9	0	4	7	43	4	18	7	293	342	435	777	143	386	27	4	345	122	+4	+1	+0	+3	+5	1.2
ROS	20	ROK	LAD	0%	106	97	17	3	0	1	6	37	2	6	2	175	238	237	475	62	278	35	6	234	37	-8	+0	+0	+2	+3	-0.2
ROS	20	MLB	LAD	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		—		—		274	—	—	216	24	—	—	+0	+0	—	—
FULL	20	ROK	LAD	—	159	151	31	6	0	3	4	62	4	18	7	205	247	305	551	99	322	39	3	233	37	-11	+1	+0	+3	+5	-0.3
TOT	20	ROK	LAD	—	265	247	48	9	0	4	10	99	6	24	9	194	243	279	523	85	301	37	4	233	37	-19	+1	+0	+5	+8	-0.6
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	21	MLB	LAD	34%	272	249	48	9	1	4	16	90	5	9	3	193	256	285	541	92	278	33	6	247	47	-16	+1	+0	+5	+8	-0.3
2028	22	MLB	LAD	48%	380	347	69	13	1	7	23	122	7	12	4	199	263	303	565	104	280	32	6	257	55	-19	+1	+0	+7	+11	-0.1
2029	23	MLB	LAD	54%	449	410	84	16	2	9	28	141	8	13	5	205	269	320	589	115	282	31	6	263	60	-20	+1	+0	+8	+13	0.1
2030	24	MLB	LAD	55%	494	451	92	17	2	10	32	153	8	14	5	204	269	317	586	113	283	31	6	267	62	-21	+1	+0	+9	+14	0.3
2031	25	MLB	LAD	60%	518	470	97	18	2	11	34	160	9	15	5	206	273	323	596	117	283	31	7	268	63	-21	+1	+0	+9	+15	0.3
2032	26	MLB	LAD	62%	520	472	97	18	2	11	34	161	9	15	5	206	272	322	594	117	283	31	7	268	64	-21	+1	+0	+9	+15	0.4
2033	27	MLB	LAD	63%	520	472	97	18	2	11	34	161	9	15	5	206	272	322	594	117	282	31	7	268	64	-21	+1	+0	+9	+15	0.4
2027	21	MLB	LAD	34%	93	86	15	3	0	1	5	31	2	3	1	174	237	244	481	70	274	33	5	231	35	-7	+0	+0	+2	+3	-0.2
2028	22	MLB	LAD	48%	184	168	33	6	1	3	11	59	3	6	2	196	258	298	556	101	276	32	6	241	43	-12	+0	+0	+3	+5	-0.3
2029	23	MLB	LAD	54%	244	223	45	8	1	5	15	76	4	7	3	202	264	314	578	112	278	31	6	247	47	-14	+0	+0	+4	+7	-0.3
2030	24	MLB	LAD	55%	274	249	51	9	1	6	18	85	5	8	3	205	272	321	593	116	279	31	7	251	50	-15	+0	+0	+5	+8	-0.2
2031	25	MLB	LAD	60%	309	281	57	11	1	6	20	96	5	9	3	203	268	313	581	110	279	31	6	252	51	-17	+1	+0	+6	+9	-0.2
2032	26	MLB	LAD	62%	323	293	60	11	1	7	21	100	6	9	3	205	272	321	593	116	279	31	7	252	51	-18	+1	+0	+6	+9	-0.2
2033	27	MLB	LAD	63%	329	298	60	11	1	7	22	102	6	9	3	201	270	315	585	114	279	31	7	252	51	-18	+1	+0	+6	+9	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	1756	1599	321	59	6	35	112	549	31	51	18	201	267	311	577	110	279	31	6	249	49	-102	+3	+0	+31	+50	-1.8
/ 162G	—			—	650	592	119	22	2	13	41	203	11	19	7	201	265	311	576	110	280	31	6	249	49	-38	+1	+0	+12	+18	-0.7
Career	—			—	3827	3471	673	126	14	68	248	1245	73	136	49	194	262	297	559	103	277	33	6	254	53	-205	+8	+0	+68	+108	-2.1
/ 162G	—			—	650	590	114	21	2	12	42	211	12	23	8	193	261	297	557	103	275	32	6	254	53	-35	+1	+0	+12	+18	-0.4

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	17	ROK	DSL LAD Mega	—	198	167	46	12	2	4	24	54	4	4	5	275	379	443	823	168	378	27	12	364	136	+8	-1	—	—	+6	1.3
2024	18	ROK	DSL LAD Bautista	—	231	177	35	5	2	2	39	48	11	28	9	198	374	282	657	85	252	21	17	314	99	-0	+2	—	—	+7	0.8
2025	19	ROK	ACL Dodgers	—	139	127	23	4	0	3	10	47	1	5	1	181	246	283	530	102	256	34	7	242	43	-9	+1	—	—	+4	-0.5

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	9	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	/162	664	12	0	209	276	313	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#2Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	9	1,844	19	2	219	297	308	+17	+52	5.6	5.8
#2Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	/162	664	7	1	219	297	308	+6.1	+18.7	2.0	pk7: 6
#3J.P. Arencibialast yr '15 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,650 PA	5	1,650	78	2	213	260	414	+29	-4	4.2	4.2
	/162	664	31	1	213	260	414	+11.9	-1.7	1.7	pk7: 4
#4Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	6	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.2	4.2
#4Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	/162	664	13	20	225	280	350	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 5 projected seasons	5	1,914	37	56	202	265	313	+34	+20	0.3	0.6
	/162	664	13	19	202	265	313	+11.9	+6.9	0.1	pk7: 1
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Abel Lorenzo (OGILVIE)	20	20→25	35→40	60→65	48	194/243/279	85	301	4	24	37%	4%	37	-0.6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jefry Puente 2012 · A	20	35	37→45	55→50	47	170/258/247	77	249	3	11	30%	9%	40	-2.4	192/268/269	77	260	3	14	25%	8%	49	-1.8	163/244/219	56	209	0	27	20%	7%	23	-0.9
✕Frankeny Fernandez 2017 · A	20	36	38→40	53→60	42	174/248/255	81	275	5	19	36%	8%	37	-2.6	193/258/268	75	281	5	10	31%	7%	44	-2.1	172/238/215	43	239	3	6	27%	7%	20	-1.1
✕David Calabrese 2023 · A	20	38→37	41→45	56→50	41	186/249/288	102	279	8	15	35%	7%	45	-2.1	184/254/304	120	272	13	13	35%	8%	53	-1.5	166/230/262	96	226	11	13	31%	7%	28	-1.4
✕Brainer Bonaci 2022 · A	20	41→42	39→45	53→50	42	196/255/285	89	270	5	13	28%	7%	46	-2.0	211/283/320	109	300	10	13	30%	9%	69	-0.4	209/285/321	112	292	12	14	30%	9%	67	-0.4
✕Jonathan Piron 2015 · A	20	40	37→45	56→50	35	193/225/278	84	274	3	16	30%	4%	30	-3.1	203/230/310	107	293	9	13	33%	3%	41	-2.3	197/220/309	112	282	11	14	34%	2%	33	-1.5
✕Victor Soto 2010 · A	21	39	37→45	56→60	40	188/240/265	77	263	3	22	29%	5%	35	-2.8	199/243/272	73	293	3	14	31%	5%	37	-2.6	187/218/237	50	279	0	18	32%	3%	15	-0.8
✕Francisco Santana 2008 · A	20	37	38→50	52→55	39	182/227/269	87	246	5	7	28%	5%	30	-3.1	203/247/310	107	265	8	12	26%	5%	50	-1.8	192/231/308	116	248	9	14	26%	5%	40	-0.9
✕Gilbert Gomez 2012 · A	20	39→35	40	52→50	40	193/252/284	91	274	7	14	31%	6%	46	-2.0	201/271/278	77	305	4	8	32%	8%	53	-1.5	191/271/264	74	296	3	7	33%	9%	45	-1.3
✕Ian Lewis Jr. 2023 · A	20	46→41	40→45	57→60	42	218/276/313	95	301	7	17	29%	7%	63	-0.9	213/275/311	98	289	7	22	27%	7%	63	-0.9	205/269/314	109	262	10	34	25%	7%	58	-0.7
✕George Feliz 2023 · A	20	36	40→50	54→45	36	177/234/268	91	293	8	13	40%	6%	33	-2.9	180/242/287	107	318	12	11	44%	6%	43	-2.2	173/237/300	127	283	16	9	43%	6%	41	-0.8
✕Gabriel Ovalle 2015 · A	20	36	35→40	57→60	41	173/225/241	68	239	1	15	27%	6%	22	-3.7	188/252/246	58	261	1	15	26%	7%	35	-2.8	179/270/216	37	224	0	32	18%	9%	34	-0.9
✕Ismael Alcantara 2019 · A	20	39→28	38→45	51→50	41	185/255/266	81	281	5	13	34%	7%	43	-2.2	211/277/317	106	330	9	15	36%	7%	64	-0.8	193/256/311	118	287	12	16	35%	6%	52	-0.7
✕Pedro Toribio 2010 · A	20	42	36→40	55→60	47	199/265/272	73	259	3	17	23%	8%	47	-1.9	229/276/321	92	283	4	23	20%	6%	64	-0.8	258/292/370	112	309	4	31	17%	4%	81	+0.1
✕Cameron Cauley 2023 · A	20	39→42	37→50	60	37	183/239/254	71	300	4	28	38%	6%	31	-3.0	192/245/311	119	312	12	26	40%	6%	50	-1.8	199/253/334	135	284	13	30	34%	7%	56	-0.9
✕Neyfy Castillo 2021 · A	20	40→29	37→50	54→55	38	188/244/263	75	289	4	11	34%	6%	37	-2.7	181/253/315	134	327	17	16	46%	7%	56	-1.3	164/239/293	129	288	17	19	46%	7%	40	-1.6
✕Eduardo Sosa 2011 · A	20	41→40	38→40	52→50	40	196/255/280	84	286	5	15	32%	6%	46	-2.0	205/245/272	67	306	3	11	32%	4%	38	-2.6	199/240/260	61	295	2	11	32%	4%	29	-1.6
✕Johan Mieses 2015 · A	20	43→33	42→55	60→50	42	208/261/317	109	274	8	22	26%	6%	57	-1.2	191/237/342	151	271	18	8	36%	5%	55	-1.4	195/270/377	182	237	27	7	30%	7%	75	-0.0
✕Kody Eaves 2013 · A	20	41→43	39→45	56→50	41	200/251/288	89	269	5	8	27%	6%	46	-2.0	205/243/301	96	280	6	14	28%	4%	45	-2.1	179/237/296	116	252	10	7	32%	6%	40	-1.5
✕Hoy Park 2017 · A	21	41→49	39→45	60→55	46	193/267/285	92	274	5	17	29%	8%	53	-1.5	216/290/303	87	291	6	17	26%	9%	67	-0.5	227/314/325	98	300	8	17	25%	10%	79	+0.2
✕Allan Castro 2023 · A	20	38→43	40→45	54→55	39	184/247/283	100	276	6	9	34%	6%	43	-2.2	200/271/309	109	281	9	13	30%	8%	60	-1.0	198/272/305	108	273	9	14	29%	9%	57	-1.0