Abel Lorenzo
C ACL Dodgers| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 18 | ROKDSL LAD Bauti… | 231 | .198/.374/.282 | 2 | 28 | 26 | — | .121/.264/.163 |
| 2025 | 19 | ROKLAD | 139 | .181/.246/.283 | 3 | 5 | -14 | — | .115/.159/.176 |
| 2026 | 20 | A/ROKLAD | 317 | .268/.314/.403 | 6 | 27 | 38 | — | .197/.235/.293 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 21 | MLBLAD | 427 | .200/.245/.291 | 5 | 10 | 50 | -0.2 | |
| 2028PROJ34% MLB | 22 | MLBLAD | 87 | .201/.249/.301 | 1 | 2 | 56 | -0.1 | |
| 2029PROJ48% MLB | 23 | MLBLAD | 167 | .205/.255/.313 | 3 | 4 | 61 | -0.1 |
Tools · ContractCON 25 / POW 41
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2027 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run 1-3 WAR low.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2023 | 17 | ROK | DSL LAD Mega | — | 198 | 167 | 46 | 12 | 2 | 4 | 24 | 54 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 275 | 379 | 443 | 823 | 168 | 378 | 27 | 12 | 364 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK | DSL LAD Bautista | — | 231 | 177 | 35 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 39 | 48 | 11 | 28 | 9 | 198 | 374 | 282 | 657 | 85 | 252 | 21 | 17 | 314 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK | ACL Dodgers | — | 139 | 127 | 23 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 47 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 181 | 246 | 283 | 530 | 102 | 256 | 34 | 7 | 242 | -14 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A | Ontario Tower Buzzers | — | 133 | 124 | 26 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 34 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 210 | 258 | 298 | 556 | 89 | 278 | 26 | 4 | 251 | 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | ROK | ACL Dodgers | — | 184 | 171 | 53 | 12 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 49 | 5 | 20 | 9 | 310 | 355 | 480 | 835 | 170 | 407 | 27 | 4 | 368 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2023 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL LAD Mega | — | 198 | 176 | 28 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 67 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 159 | 241 | 227 | 468 | 68 | 243 | 34 | 8 | 222 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL LAD Bautista | — | 231 | 190 | 23 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 26 | 59 | 11 | 28 | 9 | 121 | 264 | 163 | 427 | 42 | 157 | 26 | 11 | 206 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK MLE | ACL Dodgers | — | 139 | 131 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 68 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 115 | 159 | 176 | 335 | 61 | 207 | 49 | 4 | 147 | -14 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A MLE | Ontario Tower Buzzers | — | 133 | 126 | 22 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 46 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 175 | 212 | 254 | 466 | 79 | 255 | 35 | 2 | 197 | 19 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | ROK MLE | ACL Dodgers | — | 184 | 174 | 37 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 70 | 5 | 20 | 9 | 213 | 251 | 322 | 573 | 109 | 321 | 38 | 2 | 243 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL LAD Mega | — | 198 | 176 | 28 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 67 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 159 | 241 | 227 | 468 | 68 | 245 | 34 | 8 | 222 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL LAD Mega | — | 198 | 167 | 46 | 12 | 2 | 4 | 24 | 54 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 275 | 379 | 443 | 823 | 168 | 378 | 27 | 12 | 364 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL LAD Bautista | — | 231 | 190 | 23 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 26 | 59 | 11 | 28 | 9 | 121 | 264 | 163 | 427 | 42 | 164 | 26 | 11 | 206 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK RAW | DSL LAD Bautista | — | 231 | 177 | 35 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 39 | 48 | 11 | 28 | 9 | 198 | 374 | 282 | 657 | 85 | 252 | 21 | 17 | 314 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK MLE | ACL Dodgers | — | 139 | 131 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 68 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 115 | 159 | 176 | 335 | 61 | 210 | 49 | 4 | 147 | -14 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK RAW | ACL Dodgers | — | 139 | 127 | 23 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 47 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 181 | 246 | 283 | 530 | 102 | 256 | 34 | 7 | 242 | -14 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 317 | 299 | 57 | 12 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 117 | 8 | 27 | 11 | 191 | 232 | 278 | 509 | 87 | 294 | 37 | 3 | 224 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | ROK RAW | 2 teams | — | 317 | 295 | 79 | 18 | 2 | 6 | 12 | 83 | 8 | 27 | 11 | 268 | 314 | 403 | 718 | 136 | 351 | 26 | 4 | 319 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL LAD Mega | — | 198 | 177 | 28 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 67 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 158 | 241 | 226 | 467 | 68 | 243 | 34 | 8 | 222 | 36 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL LAD Bautista | — | 231 | 192 | 23 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 26 | 59 | 11 | 28 | 9 | 120 | 264 | 161 | 426 | 42 | 157 | 26 | 11 | 206 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK MLE | ACL Dodgers | — | 139 | 131 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 68 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 115 | 159 | 176 | 335 | 61 | 207 | 49 | 4 | 147 | -14 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 317 | 298 | 57 | 12 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 117 | 8 | 27 | 11 | 191 | 232 | 279 | 510 | 87 | 293 | 37 | 3 | 224 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL LAD Bautista | — | 231 | 192 | 23 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 26 | 59 | 11 | 28 | 9 | 120 | 264 | 161 | 426 | 42 | 157 | 26 | 11 | 206 | 26 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | ROK MLE | ACL Dodgers | — | 139 | 131 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 68 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 115 | 159 | 176 | 335 | 61 | 207 | 49 | 4 | 147 | -14 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | ROK MLE | 2 teams | — | 317 | 298 | 57 | 12 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 117 | 8 | 27 | 11 | 191 | 232 | 279 | 510 | 87 | 293 | 37 | 3 | 224 | 38 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 21 | MLB MLE | LAD | 0% | 427 | 400 | 79 | 16 | 2 | 5 | 18 | 112 | 6 | 10 | 3 | 200 | 245 | 291 | 536 | 91 | 260 | 26 | 4 | 242 | 50 | -26 | +1 | +0 | +8 | +9 | -0.2 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 22 | MLB MLE | LAD | 34% | 254 | 237 | 49 | 10 | 1 | 4 | 12 | 65 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 205 | 252 | 307 | 559 | 102 | 263 | 26 | 5 | 251 | 56 | -13 | +0 | +0 | +5 | +6 | -0.3 |
| 2029 | 23 | MLB MLE | LAD | 48% | 345 | 320 | 67 | 13 | 2 | 6 | 17 | 87 | 5 | 9 | 2 | 209 | 258 | 318 | 576 | 109 | 265 | 25 | 5 | 258 | 61 | -16 | +1 | +0 | +6 | +7 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 24 | MLB MLE | LAD | 53% | 403 | 375 | 80 | 16 | 2 | 8 | 20 | 101 | 5 | 10 | 3 | 212 | 263 | 327 | 589 | 114 | 267 | 25 | 5 | 264 | 65 | -17 | +1 | +0 | +7 | +9 | -0.0 |
| 2031 | 25 | MLB MLE | LAD | 55% | 436 | 404 | 87 | 17 | 2 | 9 | 23 | 109 | 6 | 11 | 3 | 214 | 266 | 332 | 598 | 118 | 268 | 25 | 5 | 268 | 67 | -17 | +1 | +0 | +8 | +9 | 0.1 |
| 2032 | 26 | MLB MLE | LAD | 56% | 445 | 412 | 88 | 17 | 2 | 9 | 24 | 110 | 6 | 11 | 3 | 216 | 269 | 335 | 604 | 120 | 269 | 25 | 5 | 270 | 69 | -16 | +1 | +0 | +8 | +10 | 0.2 |
| 2033 | 27 | MLB MLE | LAD | 55% | 445 | 412 | 88 | 17 | 2 | 9 | 24 | 111 | 6 | 11 | 3 | 215 | 268 | 333 | 600 | 118 | 269 | 25 | 5 | 269 | 68 | -17 | +1 | +0 | +8 | +10 | 0.2 |
| 2034 | 28 | MLB MLE | LAD | 55% | 445 | 413 | 88 | 17 | 2 | 9 | 24 | 112 | 5 | 10 | 3 | 213 | 266 | 328 | 594 | 115 | 268 | 25 | 5 | 266 | 66 | -18 | +1 | -1 | +8 | +10 | -0.0 |
| 2035 | 29 | MLB MLE | LAD | 58% | 445 | 413 | 86 | 17 | 2 | 8 | 24 | 113 | 5 | 9 | 3 | 210 | 263 | 322 | 585 | 112 | 266 | 25 | 5 | 262 | 64 | -19 | +1 | -1 | +8 | +10 | -0.2 |
| 2036 | 30 | MLB MLE | LAD | 60% | 436 | 405 | 84 | 16 | 2 | 8 | 23 | 112 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 207 | 259 | 314 | 573 | 107 | 264 | 26 | 5 | 258 | 61 | -20 | +0 | -2 | +8 | +9 | -0.5 |
| 2028 | 22 | MLB CTX | LAD | 34% | 87 | 82 | 15 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 22 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 201 | 249 | 301 | 550 | 100 | 257 | 25 | 5 | 247 | 56 | -5 | +0 | +0 | +2 | +2 | -0.1 |
| 2029 | 23 | MLB CTX | LAD | 48% | 167 | 155 | 32 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 42 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 205 | 255 | 313 | 567 | 108 | 259 | 25 | 5 | 255 | 61 | -8 | +0 | +0 | +3 | +4 | -0.1 |
| 2030 | 24 | MLB CTX | LAD | 53% | 212 | 196 | 41 | 8 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 53 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 209 | 259 | 321 | 581 | 113 | 261 | 25 | 5 | 260 | 65 | -9 | +1 | +0 | +4 | +5 | 0.0 |
| 2031 | 25 | MLB CTX | LAD | 55% | 239 | 221 | 47 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 13 | 60 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 211 | 263 | 327 | 589 | 116 | 262 | 25 | 5 | 264 | 67 | -9 | +0 | +0 | +4 | +5 | 0.1 |
| 2032 | 26 | MLB CTX | LAD | 56% | 248 | 229 | 48 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 14 | 61 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 212 | 265 | 330 | 595 | 118 | 263 | 25 | 6 | 267 | 69 | -9 | +0 | +0 | +4 | +5 | 0.1 |
| 2033 | 27 | MLB CTX | LAD | 55% | 245 | 227 | 48 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 13 | 61 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 211 | 264 | 328 | 592 | 117 | 262 | 25 | 5 | 265 | 68 | -9 | +0 | +0 | +4 | +5 | 0.1 |
| 2034 | 28 | MLB CTX | LAD | 55% | 243 | 225 | 47 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 13 | 61 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 209 | 262 | 323 | 585 | 114 | 262 | 25 | 5 | 263 | 66 | -10 | +0 | -0 | +4 | +5 | -0.0 |
| 2035 | 29 | MLB CTX | LAD | 58% | 258 | 239 | 49 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 14 | 66 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 207 | 259 | 317 | 576 | 110 | 260 | 26 | 5 | 259 | 64 | -11 | +0 | -1 | +5 | +6 | -0.2 |
| 2036 | 30 | MLB CTX | LAD | 60% | 262 | 243 | 49 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 14 | 67 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 204 | 256 | 309 | 565 | 106 | 258 | 26 | 5 | 254 | 61 | -12 | +0 | -1 | +5 | +6 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 1961 | 1817 | 376 | 71 | 8 | 38 | 104 | 493 | 24 | 44 | 15 | 207 | 259 | 318 | 577 | 111 | 261 | 25 | 5 | 260 | 57 | -82 | +3 | -2 | +35 | +42 | -0.4 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 602 | 126 | 24 | 3 | 13 | 34 | 163 | 8 | 15 | 5 | 209 | 261 | 324 | 585 | 115 | 263 | 25 | 5 | 260 | 57 | -27 | +1 | -1 | +12 | +14 | -0.1 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 4742 | 4376 | 879 | 172 | 21 | 81 | 255 | 1284 | 73 | 154 | 52 | 201 | 257 | 305 | 562 | 104 | 263 | 27 | 5 | 252 | 57 | -166 | +8 | -4 | +69 | +84 | -1.0 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 600 | 121 | 24 | 3 | 11 | 35 | 176 | 10 | 21 | 7 | 202 | 258 | 307 | 564 | 105 | 264 | 27 | 5 | 252 | 57 | -28 | +1 | -1 | +12 | +14 | -0.2 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 ROKACL Dodgers · 184 PAwOBA .359 → .243 (−116)K% 26.6% → 38.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 26.63% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 38.35% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 3.80% | ÷1.000 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.985 | 2.32% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.72% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 1.93% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.69% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | ×1.022 | ×0.985 | 23.68% |
| Doubles /BIP | 9.84% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×1.022 | ×0.985 | 7.13% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.82% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×1.022 | ×0.985 | 0.59% |
| Home runs /BIP | 4.10% | ÷1.000 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.985 | 3.15% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 19.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.022.
Result: wOBA .359 → .243; ISO .170 → .110; BABIP .407 → .321. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 AOntario Tower Buzzers · 133 PAwOBA .246 → .197 (−49)K% 25.6% → 34.8%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.56% | ÷1.000 | ×1.360 | — | — | 34.77% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 3.76% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 2.63% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.26% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 1.79% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×1.009 | ×1.015 | 18.85% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.67% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×1.009 | ×1.015 | 5.67% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.11% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×1.009 | ×1.015 | 1.04% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.11% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 0.90% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.009.
Result: wOBA .246 → .197; ISO .089 → .068; BABIP .278 → .255. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 ROKACL Dodgers · 139 PAwOBA .237 → .147 (−90)K% 33.8% → 49.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 33.81% | ÷0.993 | ×1.440 | — | — | 49.05% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.19% | ÷0.997 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.995 | 4.45% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.72% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 0.52% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.00% | ÷0.996 | ×0.820 | ×1.043 | ×0.995 | 17.10% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.00% | ÷1.102 | ×0.720 | ×1.043 | ×0.995 | 3.39% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.060 | ×0.720 | ×1.043 | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.75% | ÷1.187 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.995 | 2.45% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 137, 1B 99, 2B 120, 3B 112, K 99, BB 99 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.043.
Result: wOBA .237 → .147; ISO .102 → .054; BABIP .256 → .207. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 DSLDSL LAD Bautista · 231 PAwOBA .313 → .206 (−108)K% 20.8% → 25.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 20.78% | ÷0.994 | ×1.220 | — | — | 25.51% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 16.88% | ÷1.051 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.995 | 11.19% |
| HBP% /PA | 4.76% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×0.995 | 3.32% |
| Singles /BIP | 20.16% | ÷0.998 | ×0.680 | ×0.950 | ×0.995 | 12.98% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.88% | ÷0.963 | ×0.600 | ×0.950 | ×0.995 | 2.28% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.55% | ÷1.150 | ×0.600 | ×0.950 | ×0.995 | 0.76% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.55% | ÷1.059 | ×0.470 | — | ×0.995 | 0.68% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 112, 1B 100, 2B 92, 3B 130, K 99, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 18.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .313 → .206; ISO .085 → .046; BABIP .252 → .157. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 DSLDSL LAD Mega · 198 PAwOBA .356 → .222 (−135)K% 27.3% → 34.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.27% | ÷0.978 | ×1.220 | — | — | 34.04% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.62% | ÷1.050 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 7.81% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.02% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 1.42% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.78% | ÷0.998 | ×0.680 | ×0.990 | ×1.008 | 16.85% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.62% | ÷0.985 | ×0.600 | ×0.990 | ×1.008 | 6.45% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.77% | ÷0.937 | ×0.600 | ×0.990 | ×1.008 | 1.13% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.54% | ÷1.325 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.008 | 1.26% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 165, 1B 100, 2B 97, 3B 87, K 96, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.990.
Result: wOBA .356 → .222; ISO .168 → .084; BABIP .378 → .243. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).