Abraham Gaitan

P Daytona Tortugas

Age 23 RHP 6'2" / 180 lbs A

Overview

APROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	21	ROKCIN	16	32	5.06	4.94	25.5%	6.4%	—	K 17.4% · BB 8.0% · FIP 6.13
2026	22	ACIN	30	60	6.71	3.66	16.3%	8.7%	—	K 12.1% · BB 10.3% · FIP 4.42
2027PROJ	23	MLBCIN	32	34	5.00	5.00	15.6%	9.9%	-0.2
2028PROJ43% MLB	24	MLBCIN	23	24	4.82	4.74	17.8%	9.3%	-0.1
2029PROJ66% MLB	25	MLBCIN	35	37	4.67	4.59	19.1%	9.0%	-0.0

Next 3 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 100%

CompsRobbie Welhaf (age 23) · Jake McCasland (age 23) · Jayson McKinley (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128120vR 112

ERA5.00

FIP5.00

K%15.6%

BB%9.9%

K-BB%5.7%

Proj IP34

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 34 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†3045

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	18	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	2	0	4	19	2	2	0	0%	2.0	10.5%	10.5%	0.0%	0.0%	4.50	3.54	—
2022	18	ROK RAW	DSL Reds	2	0	4	19	2	2	0	0%	2.0	10.5%	10.5%	0.0%	0.0%	4.50	3.60	—
2023	19	ROK MLE	DSL Reds	13	8	51	204	36	14	1	62%	3.9	12.0%	8.6%	3.4%	0.7%	2.45	3.58	—
2023	19	ROK RAW	DSL Reds	13	8	51	204	36	14	1	62%	3.9	17.6%	6.9%	10.8%	0.5%	2.45	2.77	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	13	3	23	108	14	11	0	23%	1.8	8.8%	12.7%	-3.9%	0.0%	4.70	3.97	—
2024	20	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	13	3	23	108	14	11	0	23%	1.8	8.8%	12.7%	-3.9%	0.0%	4.70	3.97	—
2024	20	ROK RAW	ACL Reds	13	3	23	108	14	11	0	23%	1.8	13.0%	10.2%	2.8%	0.0%	4.70	3.32	—
2025	21	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	16	0	32	141	36	9	8	0%	2.0	17.4%	8.0%	9.4%	6.3%	5.06	6.13	—
2025	21	ROK MLE	ACL Reds	16	0	32	141	36	9	8	0%	2.0	17.4%	8.0%	9.4%	6.3%	5.06	6.13	—
2025	21	ROK RAW	ACL Reds	16	0	32	141	36	9	8	0%	2.0	25.5%	6.4%	19.1%	5.7%	5.06	4.94	—
2026	22	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	30	0	60	276	45	24	4	0%	2.0	12.1%	10.3%	1.8%	1.9%	6.71	4.42	—
2026	22	A MLE	Daytona Tortugas	30	0	60	276	45	24	4	0%	2.0	12.1%	10.3%	1.8%	1.9%	6.71	4.42	—
2026	22	A RAW	Daytona Tortugas	30	0	60	276	45	24	4	0%	2.0	16.3%	8.7%	7.6%	1.4%	6.71	3.66	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	CIN	32	0	34	144	22	14	4	0%	1.1	15.6%	9.9%	5.7%	2.9%	5.00	5.00	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	CIN	53	0	56	235	42	22	7	0%	1.1	17.8%	9.3%	8.4%	2.9%	4.82	4.74	-0.1
2029	25	MLB MLE	CIN	54	0	56	238	45	22	7	0%	1.0	19.1%	9.0%	10.0%	2.9%	4.67	4.59	-0.0
2030	26	MLB MLE	CIN	54	0	56	238	47	21	7	0%	1.0	19.8%	9.0%	10.8%	2.9%	4.58	4.53	+0.0
2028	24	MLB CTX	CIN	23	0	24	101	18	9	3	0%	1.0	17.8%	9.3%	8.4%	2.9%	4.82	4.74	-0.1
2029	25	MLB CTX	CIN	35	0	37	156	30	14	4	0%	1.1	19.1%	9.0%	10.0%	2.9%	4.67	4.59	-0.0
2030	26	MLB CTX	CIN	43	0	45	190	38	17	5	0%	1.0	19.8%	9.0%	10.8%	2.9%	4.58	4.53	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		101	0	106	447	85	41	13	0%	1.0	19.1%	9.1%	10.0%	2.9%	4.67	4.22	+0.4
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	161	77	25	0%	1.1	19.1%	9.1%	10.0%	2.9%	4.67	4.22	+0.8
Career	—	MLE		74	11	171	748	94	73	16	15%	2.3	12.5%	9.7%	2.8%	2.1%	4.80	4.42	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		87	13	200	877	110	85	18	15%	2.3	12.5%	9.7%	2.8%	2.1%	4.80	4.42	-0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Abraham Gaitan (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.00	15.6%	9.9%	2.9%	—	4.62	18.9%	9.7%	168	-0.38	—	—	—
Robbie Welhaf R 2018 · 4.06 FIP	23	SU	4.06	14.0%	7.6%	2.1%	.309	3.11	18.1%	15.0%	90	-0.95	3.11	121	89
Jake McCasland R 2015 · 4.78 FIP	23	SU	4.78	14.2%	9.8%	3.0%	.348	3.80	15.8%	8.2%	317	-0.98	3.07	367	89
Jayson McKinley R 2017 · 4.39 FIP	23	SU	4.39	17.5%	11.4%	2.4%	.308	3.60	20.4%	11.3%	134	-0.79	2.35	173	89
Reece Karalus R 2017 · 4.91 FIP	23	SU	4.91	14.0%	9.1%	3.4%	.303	4.73	15.4%	3.5%	55	-0.18	4.73	149	89
Thomas Balboni Jr. R 2023 · 3.99 FIP	23	SU	3.99	17.5%	10.9%	1.8%	.331	3.47	28.1%	14.3%	79	-0.52	2.99	122	87
Nate Adcock R 2011 · 4.17 FIP	23	SU	4.17	13.6%	8.7%	2.0%	.289	4.39	14.9%	7.5%	35	+0.22	3.84	137	87
Scott Burke R 2018 · 4.55 FIP	24	SW	4.55	14.2%	7.7%	3.0%	.316	5.27	14.9%	6.7%	61	+0.72	4.55	119	87
Matt Pidich R 2018 · 4.42 FIP	23	SU	4.42	17.1%	8.3%	3.1%	.303	4.08	20.8%	13.3%	115	-0.34	4.05	196	87
Jack Jasiak R 2024 · 4.59 FIP	23	SU	4.59	15.2%	8.6%	3.1%	.332	3.39	22.3%	15.0%	126	-1.20	3.24	262	86
Dylan Simmons R 2024 · 3.85 FIP	23	SU	3.85	17.8%	9.4%	1.9%	.295	5.10	12.7%	0.6%	74	+1.25	3.85	125	86
Luis Eusebio R 2019 · 4.92 FIP	23	SU	4.92	18.2%	10.6%	3.7%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	4.79	131	85
Anyelo Leclerc R 2015 · 5.00 FIP	23	SU	5.00	16.2%	9.8%	3.7%	.326	4.65	15.9%	6.1%	96	-0.35	4.65	140	85
Todd Peterson R 2021 · 5.11 FIP	23	SW	5.11	18.4%	10.3%	4.1%	.279	4.83	15.0%	4.3%	124	-0.28	4.45	175	85
Zach Day R 2002 · 3.87 FIP	24	SU	3.87	16.3%	8.5%	2.0%	.223	4.47	11.1%	1.8%	295	+0.60	3.87	373	85
Tayler Scott R 2015 · 4.48 FIP	23	SU	4.48	16.7%	12.7%	2.1%	.309	4.09	17.9%	6.2%	162	-0.39	3.17	528	85
Matt Eckelman R 2017 · 4.73 FIP	23	SU	4.73	15.0%	9.9%	3.0%	.304	4.23	17.4%	5.7%	97	-0.50	4.07	386	84
Ryan Vogelsong R 2001 · 5.34 FIP	24	SU	5.34	14.6%	11.6%	3.7%	.287	4.78	14.9%	5.7%	155	-0.56	3.14	1,184	84
Aaron Brooks R 2015 · 4.09 FIP	23	SU	4.09	15.2%	7.3%	2.5%	.314	3.54	13.7%	6.0%	77	-0.55	3.54	109	84
Brad Deppermann R 2021 · 4.51 FIP	25	SW	4.51	17.1%	9.6%	3.0%	.289	3.52	20.0%	7.8%	45	-0.99	1.94	143	84
Conor Steinbaugh R 2024 · 4.74 FIP	25	SU	4.74	16.0%	9.9%	3.2%	.281	6.29	15.0%	2.1%	44	+1.55	4.74	111	84

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.0	51	18.3%	9.3%	1.11	4.74
J. C. Gutierrez ('07-'14, -0 WAR*)	1.4	57	19.8%*	8.5%*	1.19*	4.72*
Vic Darensbourg ('05)	1.5	50	17.0%	9.3%	1.01	4.96
Bob Macdonald ('90-'96, 1 WAR*)	1.2	59	18.3%*	9.8%*	1.20*	4.32*
Juan Gutierrez ('14)	1.4	57	19.4%	8.4%	1.04	4.49
Kevin Hickey ('81-'91, 0 WAR*)	1.2	47	17.7%*	10.2%*	1.10*	4.27*
Bill Pleis ('61-'66, -0 WAR*)	1.4	56	19.7%*	9.8%*	1.15*	4.53*