Adonys Perez
P
Hillsboro Hops
+0.0
WAR
Age 22
LHP
6'3" / 185 lbs
A+
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035
peak 1.7 · 2030
ERA4.74
FIP4.74
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%18.8%
BB%10.1%
K-BB%8.7%
IP83
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.7peak
2030
K†4550
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 18 | ROK | DSL D-backs Black | 3 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 3 | 2 | 0 | — | — | — | 10.80 | — | — |
| 2023 | 19 | AAA | Reno Aces | 11 | 8 | 40 | 172 | 30 | 22 | 0 | 12.2% | 15.7% | 0.0% | 4.99 | 4.06 | +0.4 |
| 2024 | 20 | A | Visalia Rawhide | 22 | 21 | 96 | 437 | 95 | 44 | 13 | 16.1% | 11.9% | 3.5% | 6.63 | 5.17 | +0.1 |
| 2025 | 21 | AA | Amarillo Sod Poodles | 23 | 13 | 91 | 422 | 67 | 36 | 9 | 11.9% | 10.5% | 2.0% | 6.06 | 4.51 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 22 | A+ | Hillsboro Hops | 1 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 1 | — | — | — | 18.00 | — | — |
| ROS | 22 | MLB | ARI | 15 | 15 | 83 | 350 | 66 | 35 | 10 | 18.8% | 10.1% | 2.9% | 4.74 | 4.74 | +0.4 |
| 2026 Total | 22 | MLB | ARI | — | — | 85 | 361 | 68 | 36 | 11 | 18.8% | 10.1% | 3.0% | 5.05 | 4.63 | +0.5 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 23 | MLB | ARI | 19 | 19 | 106 | 448 | 91 | 42 | 13 | 20.2% | 9.3% | 2.8% | 4.58 | 4.51 | +1.0 |
| 2028 | 24 | MLB | ARI | 23 | 23 | 125 | 527 | 111 | 47 | 15 | 21.0% | 8.8% | 2.8% | 4.44 | 4.37 | +1.3 |
| 2029 | 25 | MLB | ARI | 25 | 25 | 138 | 584 | 125 | 50 | 16 | 21.4% | 8.6% | 2.8% | 4.35 | 4.30 | +1.6 |
| 2030 | 26 | MLB | ARI | 26 | 26 | 145 | 614 | 133 | 52 | 17 | 21.6% | 8.6% | 2.8% | 4.31 | 4.28 | +1.7 |
| 2031 | 27 | MLB | ARI | 27 | 27 | 148 | 626 | 136 | 54 | 18 | 21.7% | 8.6% | 2.8% | 4.30 | 4.29 | +1.7 |
| 2032 | 28 | MLB | ARI | 27 | 27 | 148 | 625 | 135 | 54 | 18 | 21.6% | 8.6% | 2.9% | 4.31 | 4.31 | +1.7 |
| 2033 | 29 | MLB | ARI | 26 | 26 | 145 | 611 | 131 | 53 | 18 | 21.5% | 8.7% | 2.9% | 4.34 | 4.36 | +1.5 |
| 2034 | 30 | MLB | ARI | 26 | 26 | 140 | 593 | 126 | 52 | 18 | 21.3% | 8.8% | 3.0% | 4.39 | 4.42 | +1.4 |
| 2035 | 31 | MLB | ARI | 25 | 25 | 136 | 573 | 121 | 51 | 17 | 21.1% | 8.9% | 3.0% | 4.45 | 4.50 | +1.2 |
| 2036 | 32 | MLB | ARI | 24 | 24 | 130 | 550 | 114 | 50 | 17 | 20.8% | 9.1% | 3.1% | 4.53 | 4.58 | +1.1 |
| 2037 | 33 | MLB | ARI | 23 | 23 | 124 | 525 | 107 | 49 | 17 | 20.5% | 9.3% | 3.2% | 4.62 | 4.68 | +0.9 |
| 2038 | 34 | MLB | ARI | 21 | 21 | 118 | 499 | 100 | 47 | 16 | 20.1% | 9.5% | 3.3% | 4.72 | 4.79 | +0.7 |
| 2039 | 35 | MLB | ARI | 20 | 20 | 111 | 470 | 93 | 46 | 16 | 19.7% | 9.7% | 3.4% | 4.83 | 4.91 | +0.5 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 60 | 42 | 232 | 1062 | 146 | 126 | 25 | 13.8% | 11.9% | 2.3% | 6.28 | 4.72 | +1.5 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 52 | 36 | 200 | 916 | 126 | 109 | 22 | 13.8% | 11.9% | 2.3% | 6.28 | 4.72 | +1.3 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Adonys Perez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.74 | 18.8% | 10.1% | 2.9% | — | 4.38 | 20.9% | 12.0% | 369 | -0.36 | — | — | — |
| Andrew Faulkner L 2026 · 4.76 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.76 | 18.0% | 12.8% | 2.9% | .290 | 4.07 | 17.7% | 6.6% | 142 | -0.69 | 3.72 | 252 | 93 |
| Riley Cooper L 2026 · 4.27 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.27 | 16.6% | 12.0% | 1.9% | .287 | 4.70 | 16.5% | 8.0% | 32 | +0.43 | 4.27 | 120 | 93 |
| Cole Kirschsieper L 2026 · 5.04 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.04 | 15.2% | 12.0% | 3.1% | .268 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.04 | 105 | 92 |
| Dominic Perachi L 2026 · 5.19 FIP | 22 | SP- | 5.19 | 17.5% | 13.9% | 3.3% | .324 | 3.56 | 17.8% | 7.8% | 150 | -1.63 | 3.30 | 240 | 91 |
| Connor O'Halloran L 2025 · 5.08 FIP | 21 | SP- | 5.08 | 17.2% | 12.3% | 3.4% | .287 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.08 | 104 | 91 |
| Rylan Kaufman L 2026 · 4.67 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.67 | 19.3% | 12.1% | 3.0% | .305 | 4.75 | 18.9% | 4.5% | 131 | +0.08 | 4.01 | 212 | 90 |
| Drew Dowd L 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.39 | 16.1% | 11.7% | 2.1% | .280 | 3.14 | 24.9% | 16.0% | 55 | -1.25 | 3.14 | 166 | 90 |
| Austin Davis L 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.86 | 14.7% | 12.4% | 2.6% | .259 | 2.96 | 23.3% | 15.8% | 151 | -1.90 | 2.22 | 486 | 89 |
| Sam Garcia L 2027 · 5.14 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.14 | 18.5% | 12.7% | 3.6% | .284 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.14 | 101 | 88 |
| Bryan Radziewski L 2027 · 4.15 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.15 | 16.4% | 10.5% | 2.0% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.15 | 106 | 88 |
| Eddie Campbell L 2027 · 5.06 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.06 | 13.5% | 10.7% | 3.2% | .315 | 6.31 | 13.7% | -3.8% | 140 | +1.25 | 5.06 | 250 | 88 |
| John Beller L 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.60 | 19.7% | 14.1% | 2.5% | .326 | 4.38 | 22.2% | 7.1% | 90 | -0.22 | 4.21 | 170 | 87 |
| Keegan Akin L 2026 · 4.63 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.63 | 20.2% | 12.5% | 3.0% | .303 | 4.26 | 22.2% | 10.7% | 276 | -0.37 | 2.56 | 718 | 86 |
| Hunter Owen L 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.33 | 14.5% | 8.7% | 2.5% | .270 | 4.14 | 21.0% | 10.3% | 95 | -0.19 | 4.14 | 197 | 86 |
| Pat Peterson L 2026 · 4.20 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.20 | 13.5% | 10.6% | 1.6% | .303 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.20 | 108 | 86 |
| Jake Zokan L 2028 · 4.93 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.93 | 12.5% | 9.9% | 3.0% | .292 | 1.79 | 24.2% | 22.5% | 37 | -3.14 | 1.79 | 120 | 86 |
| Mason Green L 2027 · 4.20 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.20 | 16.2% | 12.2% | 1.7% | .329 | 4.64 | 19.0% | 5.1% | 252 | +0.44 | 3.72 | 364 | 86 |
| Brooks Gosswein L 2027 · 5.11 FIP | 23 | SP- | 5.11 | 14.7% | 14.8% | 2.5% | .328 | 5.60 | 15.2% | -2.7% | 66 | +0.49 | 5.11 | 165 | 86 |
| Caleb Franzen L 2026 · 4.09 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.09 | 16.2% | 10.1% | 2.0% | .336 | 6.51 | 7.6% | -11.0% | 25 | +2.42 | 4.09 | 138 | 85 |
| Max Fried L 2026 · 4.85 FIP | 22 | SP- | 4.85 | 19.5% | 13.0% | 3.2% | .301 | 3.73 | 22.6% | 13.4% | 378 | -1.12 | 2.46 | 1,369 | 85 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2030
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2035
First FA Year 2036
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2029 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2030 | |||
| 2030 | Pre-Arb | $0.9M | +1.7 | $15M | +$14M |
| 2031 | Pre-Arb | $0.9M | +1.7 | $16M | +$15M |
| 2032 | Pre-Arb | $0.9M | +1.7 | $16M | +$15M |
| 2033 | Arb-1 | $2M | +1.5 | $15M | +$13M |
| 2034 | Arb-2 | $2M | +1.4 | $14M | +$12M |
| 2035 | Arb-3 | $3M | +1.2 | $13M | +$10M |
| Totals | $10M | $89M | +$79M | ||