Adonys Perez — OGILVIE

Adonys Perez P Amarillo Sod Poodles

Age 22 LHP 6'3" / 185 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 1.1 · 2030

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 58 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 127135vR 143

ERA5.78

FIP5.78

K%11.0%

BB%13.1%

K-BB%-2.1%

ROS IP58

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 58 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$11M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF2525

CTRL4545

CMD3030

K†3040

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Arb-1	$0.6M	—	—	—
2033	Arb-2	$0.7M	—	—	—
2034	Arb-3	$7M	—	—	—
Totals		$0.0M		$-3M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	18	ROK MLE	DSL D-backs Black	3	0	3	20	3	2	0	0%	1.1	15.0%	10.0%	5.0%	0.0%	10.80	3.10	—
2022	18	ROK RAW	DSL D-backs Black	3	0	3	20	3	2	0	0%	1.1	15.0%	10.0%	5.0%	0.0%	10.80	3.10	—
2023	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	11	8	40	172	30	22	0	73%	3.6	12.2%	15.7%	-3.5%	0.0%	4.99	4.06	—
2023	19	MIX MLE	2 levels	11	8	40	172	30	22	0	73%	3.6	12.2%	15.7%	-3.5%	0.0%	4.99	4.06	—
2023	19	MIX RAW	2 levels	11	8	40	172	30	22	0	73%	3.6	17.4%	12.8%	4.7%	0.0%	4.99	3.25	—
2024	20	A MLE	Visalia Rawhide	22	21	96	437	95	44	13	95%	4.4	16.1%	11.9%	4.2%	3.5%	6.63	5.17	—
2024	20	A MLE	Visalia Rawhide	22	21	96	437	95	44	13	95%	4.4	16.1%	11.9%	4.2%	3.5%	6.63	5.17	—
2024	20	A RAW	Visalia Rawhide	22	21	96	437	95	44	13	95%	4.4	21.7%	10.1%	11.7%	3.0%	6.63	4.25	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	13	91	422	67	36	9	57%	3.9	11.9%	10.5%	1.4%	2.1%	6.06	4.57	—
2025	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	13	91	422	67	36	9	57%	3.9	11.9%	10.5%	1.4%	2.1%	6.06	4.57	—
2025	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	13	91	422	67	36	9	57%	3.9	15.9%	8.5%	7.3%	2.1%	6.06	4.10	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	22	AA MLE	Amarillo Sod Poodles	17	6	47	198	35	13	8	35%	2.7	13.8%	7.3%	6.5%	4.9%	4.44	5.55	—
YTD	22	AA MLE	Amarillo Sod Poodles	17	6	47	198	35	13	8	35%	2.7	13.8%	7.3%	6.5%	4.9%	4.44	5.55	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	22	A+ RAW	ARI	10	0	23	91	24	4	2	0%	2.3	26.4%	4.4%	22.0%	2.2%	3.09	2.64	—
2026	22	AA RAW	ARI	7	6	23	107	11	9	6	86%	3.3	10.3%	8.4%	1.9%	5.6%	5.79	6.38	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	23	MLB MLE	ARI	14	14	90	380	53	46	11	100%	6.4	13.9%	12.0%	1.8%	2.8%	5.49	5.39	-0.5
2028	24	MLB MLE	ARI	15	15	92	389	61	45	11	100%	6.1	15.7%	11.4%	4.2%	2.8%	5.26	5.16	-0.3
2029	25	MLB MLE	ARI	15	15	93	394	66	44	11	100%	6.2	16.7%	11.1%	5.6%	2.8%	5.10	5.02	-0.1
2030	26	MLB MLE	ARI	15	15	93	394	68	43	11	100%	6.2	17.3%	11.0%	6.3%	2.8%	5.01	4.97	-0.1
2031	27	MLB MLE	ARI	15	15	92	388	67	43	11	100%	6.1	17.2%	11.1%	6.2%	2.9%	5.01	5.00	-0.1
2032	28	MLB MLE	ARI	14	14	89	377	64	42	11	100%	6.4	17.1%	11.2%	5.9%	3.0%	5.06	5.09	-0.2
2033	29	MLB MLE	ARI	14	14	85	360	61	41	11	100%	6.1	16.9%	11.4%	5.4%	3.1%	5.15	5.22	-0.3
2034	30	MLB MLE	ARI	13	13	80	338	56	40	11	100%	6.2	16.5%	11.7%	4.8%	3.3%	5.30	5.40	-0.4
2027	23	MLB CTX	ARI	7	7	45	190	26	23	5	100%	6.4	13.9%	12.0%	1.8%	2.7%	5.40	5.30	-0.2
2028	24	MLB CTX	ARI	10	10	65	274	43	31	7	100%	6.5	15.7%	11.4%	4.2%	2.7%	5.17	5.07	-0.2
2029	25	MLB CTX	ARI	12	12	76	321	54	36	9	100%	6.3	16.7%	11.1%	5.6%	2.7%	5.01	4.93	-0.1
2030	26	MLB CTX	ARI	13	13	82	346	60	38	9	100%	6.3	17.3%	11.0%	6.3%	2.7%	4.92	4.88	-0.1
2031	27	MLB CTX	ARI	13	13	83	350	60	39	10	100%	6.4	17.2%	11.1%	6.2%	2.7%	4.92	4.91	-0.1
2032	28	MLB CTX	ARI	13	13	82	346	59	39	10	100%	6.3	17.1%	11.2%	5.9%	2.8%	4.97	5.00	-0.2
2033	29	MLB CTX	ARI	13	13	79	334	56	38	10	100%	6.1	16.9%	11.4%	5.4%	3.0%	5.06	5.13	-0.3
2034	30	MLB CTX	ARI	12	12	75	317	52	37	10	100%	6.2	16.5%	11.7%	4.8%	3.1%	5.20	5.30	-0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		95	95	587	2480	411	281	69	100%	6.2	16.6%	11.3%	5.3%	2.8%	5.06	4.67	+1.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		32	32	200	844	140	96	23	100%	6.2	16.6%	11.3%	5.3%	2.8%	5.06	4.67	+0.5
Career	—	MLE		76	48	277	1249	172	140	34	63%	3.6	13.8%	11.2%	2.6%	2.7%	5.89	4.84	-2.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		55	35	200	903	124	101	24	63%	3.6	13.8%	11.2%	2.6%	2.7%	5.89	4.84	-0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Adonys Perez (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.78	11.0%	13.1%	2.9%	—	5.19	15.4%	3.9%	276	-0.59	—	—	—
Rolando Gutierrez L 2023 · 4.59 FIP	21	SP-	4.59	12.8%	10.9%	2.2%	.286	3.80	16.2%	-0.1%	18	-0.79	3.53	113	83
Lane Ratliff L 2017 · 6.08 FIP	22	SP-	6.08	12.0%	12.8%	4.3%	.344	3.25	15.9%	7.7%	80	-2.83	2.85	109	81
Parker Rigler L 2017 · 6.33 FIP	22	SP-	6.33	13.8%	13.3%	5.0%	.318	4.59	14.5%	4.0%	140	-1.74	4.59	192	81
Victor Payano L 2015 · 6.06 FIP	22	SP-	6.06	14.8%	16.5%	3.9%	.287	4.82	20.5%	7.0%	225	-1.24	3.78	341	80
Maikel Sepulveda L 2017 · 4.78 FIP	20	SW	4.78	10.5%	11.5%	2.0%	.288	—	—	—	—	—	4.24	125	79
Estevan Gonzalez L 2015 · 4.77 FIP	23	SW	4.77	14.1%	10.7%	2.8%	.322	4.86	14.7%	0.1%	130	+0.09	4.58	195	79
Tom Windle L 2015 · 4.63 FIP	23	SW	4.63	12.3%	13.0%	1.7%	.304	4.33	18.0%	6.8%	159	-0.30	3.68	330	78
Scott Squier L 2015 · 5.28 FIP	22	SW	5.28	12.2%	11.2%	3.3%	.362	4.06	13.9%	7.9%	234	-1.22	3.29	276	77
Cole Kirschsieper L 2023 · 5.07 FIP	22	SP-	5.07	15.2%	12.0%	3.2%	.268	—	—	—	—	—	5.07	105	76
Andrew Faulkner L 2015 · 4.74 FIP	22	SP-	4.74	18.0%	12.8%	2.8%	.290	4.06	17.7%	6.6%	142	-0.68	3.70	252	76
Evan Grills L 2015 · 5.42 FIP	23	SP-	5.42	13.0%	8.6%	4.2%	.335	4.02	16.1%	11.6%	221	-1.40	3.41	309	76
Edwin Escobar L 2015 · 5.96 FIP	23	SW	5.96	9.6%	11.9%	3.9%	.268	4.28	13.7%	4.9%	122	-1.68	4.28	218	75
Jake Miller L 2023 · 5.50 FIP	22	SP-	5.50	17.2%	14.1%	3.8%	.345	3.04	22.5%	16.3%	99	-2.46	3.00	143	74
Max Roberts L 2017 · 4.79 FIP	20	SP-	4.79	10.7%	9.9%	2.5%	.353	—	—	—	—	—	4.27	173	73
Austin Davis L 2015 · 4.83 FIP	22	SW	4.83	14.7%	12.4%	2.5%	.259	2.97	23.3%	15.8%	151	-1.86	2.19	486	73
Ferrol Heredia L 2019 · 4.59 FIP	20	SW	4.59	13.6%	16.0%	1.1%	.283	—	—	—	—	—	4.59	127	73
Yonathan Ramirez L 2017 · 6.01 FIP	20	SW	6.01	7.9%	11.0%	4.0%	.295	—	—	—	—	—	3.24	116	73
Julian Smith L 2019 · 4.79 FIP	22	SW	4.79	14.5%	17.4%	1.3%	.399	5.33	17.9%	5.8%	110	+0.54	2.87	189	73
Jared Tobey L 2018 · 5.39 FIP	22	SP	5.39	11.9%	15.1%	2.5%	.289	4.05	22.3%	10.4%	97	-1.34	3.99	158	73
Bryce Hubbart L 2023 · 5.87 FIP	22	SW	5.87	17.0%	26.0%	1.7%	.303	5.32	17.8%	4.0%	148	-0.55	4.79	193	73

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.9	86	16.0%	11.5%	1.14	5.22
Chad Kuhl ('24)	3.3	84	20.0%	10.4%	1.31	4.98
Aaron Sanchez ('22)	3.3	93	18.1%	10.0%	0.98	4.32
Dakota Hudson ('24)	2.8	92	15.0%	11.1%	0.91	4.25
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77
Zach Davies ('23)	5.2	116	17.5%	8.1%	1.16	4.36
Tyler Chatwood ('21)	2.6	104	19.2%	13.3%	0.94	4.48