J.D. Gonzalez — OGILVIE

J.D. GonzalezC Charleston RiverDogs

Age 20 L/R 6'0" / 182 lbs A HR -6%H +4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

2026 ROS PROJECTION256 act + 170 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†36

AVG/OBP/SLG.200 / .243 / .257

PA170

HR1

K%30

BB%5

BABIP285

ISO56

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 25 / POW 37

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT25

scouting grade only

POWER37

scouting grade only

EYE45

scouting grade only

SPEED49

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.8	$2M	+$2M
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.8	$2M	+$2M
2033	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	+0.8	$2M	+$1M
2034	Arb-1	$1M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.9M
2035	Arb-2	$2M	+0.6	$1M	+$0.6M
2036	Arb-3	$1M	+0.3	$0.6M	+$0.0M
Totals		$7M		$9M	+$6M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	17	INTL	Gigantes de Carolina	—	17	15	3	0	0	0	2	10	0	0	0	200	294	200	494		600	59	12	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	17	INTL	Gigantes de Carolina	—	17	15	3	0	0	0	2	10	0	0	0	200	294	200	494		600	59	12	242	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	A	2 teams	—	312	279	29	4	0	1	21	150	4	1	0	104	178	129	307	25	207	48	7	152	-25	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	18	A	2 teams	—	312	262	41	7	0	1	38	103	4	1	0	156	273	195	468	38	242	33	12	226	31	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	A	2 teams	—	145	137	19	1	0	0	6	53	1	0	0	139	181	146	327	7	226	37	4	150	-27	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	19	A	2 teams	—	145	134	22	1	0	0	9	40	1	0	0	164	222	172	394	7	234	28	6	188	2	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	20	A	TB	—	256	241	52	8	0	2	10	88	0	3	0	216	247	274	521	58	327	34	4	228	33	-19	+1	+0	+5	+7	-0.7
YTD	20	A	TB	—	256	236	60	10	0	3	15	64	0	3	0	254	299	335	634	81	333	25	6	282	74	-8	+1	+0	+5	+7	0.5
ROS	20	A	TB	0%	170	159	32	6	0	1	8	51	1	2	0	200	243	257	500	56	283	30	5	233	36	-12	+0	+0	+3	+5	-0.4
ROS	20	MLB	TB	0%	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		—		—		287	—	—	230	34	—	—	+0	+0	—	—
FULL	20	A	TB	—	256	242	52	8	0	2	10	88	0	3	0	215	247	273	520	58	325	34	4	228	33	-19	+1	+0	+5	+7	-0.7
TOT	20	A	TB	—	426	400	84	14	0	3	18	139	1	5	0	210	245	267	512	57	310	33	4	230	34	-32	+1	+0	+8	+12	-1.1
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	21	MLB	TB	34%	366	341	72	13	1	5	20	105	2	5	1	211	259	299	558	88	286	29	5	252	51	-20	+1	+0	+7	+10	-0.3
2028	22	MLB	TB	48%	452	420	90	16	1	8	26	125	3	7	1	214	265	314	579	100	287	28	6	265	61	-20	+1	+0	+8	+13	0.2
2029	23	MLB	TB	54%	498	461	102	18	2	10	30	135	4	8	2	221	275	334	609	113	288	27	6	272	66	-19	+1	+0	+9	+14	0.5
2030	24	MLB	TB	55%	520	479	108	19	2	11	32	139	4	9	2	225	280	342	622	117	289	27	6	276	69	-18	+1	+0	+9	+15	0.7
2031	25	MLB	TB	56%	520	479	108	19	2	11	32	139	4	9	2	225	280	342	622	117	289	27	6	278	71	-17	+1	+0	+9	+15	0.8
2032	26	MLB	TB	56%	520	478	108	19	2	11	33	139	4	9	2	226	282	343	625	117	289	27	6	278	71	-17	+1	+0	+9	+15	0.8
2033	27	MLB	TB	55%	520	478	107	19	2	11	33	139	4	9	2	224	280	341	621	117	289	27	6	278	71	-17	+1	+0	+9	+15	0.8
2034	28	MLB	TB	55%	520	477	107	19	2	11	34	140	4	9	2	224	282	342	623	117	288	27	7	277	70	-17	+1	-1	+9	+15	0.7
2035	29	MLB	TB	53%	520	477	106	19	1	11	34	141	4	9	2	222	280	335	615	113	287	27	7	275	69	-18	+1	-1	+9	+15	0.6
2036	30	MLB	TB	53%	515	472	103	18	1	10	34	141	4	8	2	218	276	324	601	106	286	27	7	273	67	-19	+1	-2	+9	+15	0.3
2037	31	MLB	TB	57%	486	448	96	17	1	9	32	134	3	8	1	214	271	317	588	103	284	28	7	268	64	-20	+1	-3	+9	+14	0.1
2027	21	MLB	TB	34%	126	117	25	4	0	2	7	36	1	2	0	214	264	299	563	85	289	29	6	249	49	-7	+0	+0	+2	+4	-0.1
2028	22	MLB	TB	48%	219	202	45	8	1	4	13	61	2	3	1	223	276	332	608	109	291	28	6	260	57	-11	+0	+0	+4	+6	-0.0
2029	23	MLB	TB	54%	270	250	56	10	1	5	16	73	2	5	1	224	276	332	608	108	292	27	6	267	63	-11	+1	+0	+5	+8	0.2
2030	24	MLB	TB	55%	288	266	60	10	1	6	18	77	2	5	1	226	280	338	618	113	293	27	6	271	66	-11	+1	+0	+5	+8	0.3
2031	25	MLB	TB	56%	291	269	61	11	1	6	18	78	2	5	1	227	280	342	622	115	293	27	6	273	67	-11	+1	+0	+5	+8	0.3
2032	26	MLB	TB	56%	292	270	61	11	1	6	18	78	2	5	1	226	279	341	620	115	293	27	6	274	68	-11	+1	+0	+5	+8	0.3
2033	27	MLB	TB	55%	288	266	60	10	1	6	18	77	2	5	1	226	280	338	618	113	292	27	6	274	68	-11	+1	+0	+5	+8	0.3
2034	28	MLB	TB	55%	285	262	59	10	1	6	19	77	2	5	1	225	283	340	622	115	292	27	7	273	67	-11	+1	-0	+5	+8	0.3
2035	29	MLB	TB	53%	278	256	58	10	1	6	18	75	2	5	1	227	283	344	626	117	291	27	6	271	65	-11	+1	-1	+5	+8	0.2
2036	30	MLB	TB	53%	271	249	55	9	1	5	18	74	2	4	1	221	279	325	604	104	290	27	7	268	63	-11	+0	-1	+5	+8	0.1
2037	31	MLB	TB	57%	275	253	55	9	1	5	18	76	2	4	1	217	275	320	595	103	287	28	7	264	60	-12	+0	-2	+5	+8	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	2883	2661	595	102	10	57	181	782	21	48	10	224	278	334	612	110	294	27	6	269	64	-117	+6	-4	+51	+82	1.8
/ 162G	—			—	650	600	134	23	2	13	41	176	5	11	2	223	279	333	612	110	293	27	6	269	64	-26	+1	-1	+12	+18	0.4
Career	—			—	6081	5600	1190	207	17	110	377	1741	46	93	19	212	268	314	582	102	285	29	6	262	59	-285	+11	-7	+109	+172	-0.0
/ 162G	—			—	650	599	127	22	2	12	40	186	5	10	2	212	267	316	583	104	284	29	6	262	59	-30	+1	-1	+12	+18	0.0

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2023	17	INTL	Gigantes de Carolina	—	17	15	3	0	0	2	10	0	0	200	294	200	494		600	59	12	242	43	-1	+0	—	—	+0	-0.1
2024	18	A	Charleston RiverDogs	—	288	242	39	6	1	34	95	4	1	161	275	198	473	37	248	33	12	227	32	-22	+0	—	—	+8	-1.4
2024	18	INTL	Gigantes de Carolina	—	24	20	2	1	0	4	8	0	0	100	250	150	400	50	167	33	17	207	17	-2	+0	—	—	+1	-0.2
2025	19	A	Charleston RiverDogs	—	104	98	17	1	0	6	27	0	0	173	221	184	405	10	239	26	6	192	5	-11	+0	—	—	+3	-0.8
2025	19	INTL	Gigantes de Carolina	—	41	36	5	0	0	3	13	1	0	139	225	139	364		217	32	7	179	-5	-5	+0	—	—	+1	-0.4

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Bobby Crosbylast yr '10 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,832 PA	7	2,832	62	34	238	305	374	+28	+33	11.6	11.6
	/162	664	15	8	238	305	374	+6.7	+7.7	2.7	pk7: 12
#2Adeiny Hechavarríalast yr '20 career totals — 9 seasons, 3,288 PA	9	3,288	37	35	253	291	351	+32	+46	8.6	8.9
	/162	664	7	7	253	291	351	+6.5	+9.3	1.7	pk7: 9
#3Mike Mathenylast yr '06 career totals — 7 seasons, 2,830 PA	7	2,830	45	2	244	301	351	+21	+31	7.2	7.2
	/162	664	11	0	244	301	351	+4.9	+7.2	1.7	pk7: 7
#4Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	9	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
#4Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	/162	664	12	0	209	276	313	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#5Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	9	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
	/162	664	10	9	246	289	354	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
#6J.P. Arencibialast yr '15 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,650 PA	5	1,650	78	2	213	260	414	+29	-4	4.2	4.2
	/162	664	31	1	213	260	414	+11.9	-1.7	1.7	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 7 projected seasons	7	3,091	60	52	220	272	330	+55	+28	2.5	2.6
	/162	664	13	11	220	272	330	+11.9	+6.0	0.5	pk7: 3

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
J.D. Gonzalez (OGILVIE)	20	20→25	32→37	44→49	45	210/245/267	57	310	3	5	33%	4%	34	-1.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Michael De La Cruz 2016 · A	20	41	36→40	45→50	44	192/261/262	70	277	4	9	30%	8%	43	-2.2	192/257/257	65	308	3	10	35%	8%	40	-2.4	156/232/188	31	269	0	14	38%	9%	10	-1.5
✕Ben Rortvedt 2018 · A	20	40	37→45	48→40	43	194/245/264	70	248	5	3	24%	6%	37	-2.7	214/270/309	95	285	8	3	26%	6%	59	-1.1	200/285/311	111	278	12	2	30%	9%	65	-0.3
✕Luis Valenzuela 2014 · A	20	41	37→45	53→45	46	193/250/268	75	240	4	9	21%	7%	40	-2.4	227/256/313	86	294	5	8	24%	4%	53	-1.5	257/280/358	100	316	5	7	20%	2%	71	-0.1
✕Darrien Miller 2021 · A	20	42→41	36→45	47→45	43	198/272/267	70	271	3	8	27%	6%	50	-1.7	197/299/316	119	271	14	6	30%	9%	76	+0.1	174/315/272	98	251	9	3	30%	11%	72	-0.1
✕Deivis Nadal 2022 · A	20	39	35→40	46→55	38	186/250/240	55	271	3	11	31%	5%	34	-2.8	173/252/259	86	311	6	18	42%	8%	40	-2.4	145/233/240	96	278	8	23	46%	9%	25	-1.4
✕Francisco Santana 2008 · A	20	37	38→50	52→55	39	182/227/269	87	246	5	7	28%	5%	30	-3.1	203/247/310	107	265	8	12	26%	5%	50	-1.8	192/231/308	116	248	9	14	26%	5%	40	-0.9
✕Juan Centeno 2010 · A	20	42	36→45	49→40	46	200/261/264	65	253	3	6	22%	7%	44	-2.1	229/274/289	60	295	3	6	22%	6%	55	-1.4	238/286/352	114	281	11	2	19%	5%	73	-0.1
✕Gilberto Vizcarra 2019 · A	20	35	38→45	47→40	46	171/243/241	71	215	6	3	23%	7%	32	-3.0	206/263/288	82	261	6	4	22%	6%	51	-1.7	226/269/325	99	274	9	1	21%	4%	62	-0.3
✕Alfredo González 2012 · A	20	36	36→40	47→45	38	174/218/242	68	245	2	8	29%	5%	19	-3.9	194/246/266	72	256	4	10	25%	5%	38	-2.6	229/290/281	52	315	3	6	26%	7%	57	-0.5
✕Shane Mardirosian 2016 · A	20	42→39	37→40	50→45	39	199/247/278	79	276	4	13	28%	5%	41	-2.3	196/245/264	68	276	4	8	29%	5%	37	-2.6	187/239/249	62	261	3	7	28%	5%	28	-1.7
✕Daniel Vellojin 2019 · A	19	39	39→45	47→45	48	189/268/273	83	260	6	6	28%	9%	50	-1.7	214/303/312	98	272	7	8	22%	10%	76	+0.0	196/299/311	116	258	12	6	27%	12%	71	-0.1
✕Oswal Leones 2021 · A	20	41	36→30	46→50	46	196/259/262	66	262	4	12	25%	7%	43	-2.2	196/259/262	66	296	3	8	32%	7%	43	-2.2	176/243/231	55	271	2	9	33%	7%	25	-1.1
✕Vicmal De La Cruz 2014 · A	20	39	38→40	47→50	39	189/242/268	78	269	6	5	31%	6%	37	-2.7	186/245/258	72	280	3	6	32%	6%	36	-2.7	147/214/205	58	225	0	6	32%	6%	7	-1.5
✕Cristhian Vasquez 2017 · A	20	32	38→30	49→50	42	161/225/240	79	224	6	8	30%	7%	23	-3.6	195/251/268	73	259	4	9	25%	6%	40	-2.4	190/244/248	58	247	2	11	22%	5%	30	-1.4
✕Diomedes Del Rio 2018 · A	20	40	35→55	51→50	42	189/256/253	63	271	2	9	29%	6%	40	-2.4	207/272/316	109	294	5	9	29%	8%	62	-0.9	200/270/362	161	281	6	11	29%	8%	71	-0.1
✕Leandro Pineda 2022 · A	20	35→39	37→45	43→45	46	171/257/239	68	251	4	7	31%	9%	37	-2.6	189/260/297	108	280	9	5	33%	7%	53	-1.5	202/271/322	120	261	12	6	26%	7%	62	-0.5
✕Jefry Puente 2012 · A	20	35	37→45	55→50	47	170/258/247	77	249	3	11	30%	9%	40	-2.4	192/268/269	77	260	3	14	25%	8%	49	-1.8	163/244/219	56	209	0	27	20%	7%	23	-0.9
✕Miguel Rodriguez 2007 · A	20	35	37→45	48→45	34	175/223/246	71	263	5	6	34%	4%	23	-3.6	209/264/290	81	278	5	5	25%	5%	52	-1.6	217/275/301	85	280	4	3	23%	5%	58	-0.5
✕Ricardo Rosario 2023 · A	20	40	37→40	50→55	42	191/251/266	76	262	4	12	28%	6%	40	-2.4	205/277/292	87	289	8	19	29%	8%	59	-1.1	203/290/292	89	267	11	29	26%	9%	63	-0.4
✕Jonatan Santana 2008 · A	20	38	34→40	48→55	47	181/242/228	47	228	2	9	21%	7%	27	-3.3	203/261/273	70	253	3	12	20%	6%	46	-2.0	198/253/266	69	248	2	13	20%	6%	38	-0.8