Nacho Alvarez Jr.

3B Gwinnett Stripers

Age 24 R/R 5'10" / 190 lbs AAA Svc 3.000 · Ctrl thru 2029

Overview

AAA40-MANArb-1FA 2030

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	21	MLBATL	32	.100/.156/.100	0	0	-25	-0.3
2025	22	MLBATL	208	.234/.298/.330	2	0	77	0.2
2026	23	AAAATL	169	.236/.341/.326	2	4	61	—	.213/.293/.293
2027PROJ45% MLB	24	MLBATL	99	.217/.296/.314	1	2	75	-0.0
2028PROJ51% MLB	25	MLBATL	178	.219/.298/.321	3	3	77	0.0
2029PROJ54% MLB	26	MLBATL	214	.219/.299/.323	4	4	78	0.1

Last 3 seasons WAR -0.1 · Next 3 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2029Service3.000First FA2030

2027Arb-1$0.4M2028Arb-2$1M2029Arb-3$2M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2024-2025

Whiff%74

Chase%64

Speed36

Bat Spd16

Barrel%10

xwOBA10

CompsNick Allen (age 24) · Onix Vega (age 24) · Jonathan Esqueda (age 24)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 7675vR 71

AVG/OBP/SLG.217 / .296 / .314

PA99

HR1

K%22

BB%8

BABIP268

ISO79

MLB%45%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control-$2M ctrl surplus

Tools · Splits · ContractCON 45 / POW 30

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2024-2025

CONTACT45

Whiff%

748.5%

xAVG

130.221

POWER30

Barrel%

101.2

Avg EV

1084.8

Bat Spd

1667.7

EYE55

Chase%

6428.9%

SPEED45

Sprint

3626.8

Platoon Splits2024-2025 · 231 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

176

—

wRC+

▶▶R

wOBA

207

282

▶▶R

ISO

043

099

▶▶R

BABIP

206

308

▶▶R

25.4%

22.7%

▶R

BB%

9.1%

4.0%

◀◀L

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Arb-1

MLB Debut 2024

Service 3.000 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2029

First FA Year 2030

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Arb-1	$0.4M	+0.1	$0.4M	+$0.0M (cut)
2028	Arb-2	$1M	—	—	—
2029	Arb-3	$2M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$0.0M		$0.7M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2022	19	A	Augusta GreenJackets	—	71	51	15	2	1	0	19	9	1	4	1	294	493	373	866	78	357	13	27	409	130	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	ROK	FCL Braves	—	51	43	12	1	1	1	7	6	1	4	0	279	392	419	811	140	306	12	14	368	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	A+	Rome Braves	—	501	419	119	24	0	7	66	87	13	16	5	284	398	391	789	107	341	17	13	361	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	MLB	Atlanta Braves	—	32	30	3	0	0	0	0	10	2	0	0	100	156	100	256		150	31	0	131	-25	-5	+0	-1	+2	+1	-0.3
2024	21	AAA	Gwinnett Stripers	—	289	246	73	9	1	10	37	45	5	10	2	297	399	463	863	167	328	16	13	386	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	AA	Mississippi Braves	—	202	170	45	6	1	0	29	38	3	16	1	265	381	312	693	47	341	19	14	327	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	MLB	Atlanta Braves	—	208	188	44	12	0	2	12	49	5	0	0	234	298	330	627	96	304	24	6	283	77	-6	+0	+2	+1	+5	0.2
2025	22	AAA	Gwinnett Stripers	—	79	63	16	3	0	1	11	15	5	0	1	254	405	349	754	95	319	19	14	356	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	INTL	Glendale Desert Dogs	—	92	74	24	7	1	1	16	13	2	5	1	324	457	486	943	162	383	14	17	423	172	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	AAA	Gwinnett Stripers	—	169	144	34	7	0	2	21	30	2	4	1	236	341	326	668	90	281	18	12	307	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	240	218	47	12	0	2	12	59	7	0	0	216	278	298	577	83	285	25	5	262	64	-10	+0	+1	+3	+5	-0.1
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2022	19	A MLE	Augusta GreenJackets	—	71	56	16	2	1	0	14	12	1	4	1	286	437	357	794	71	356	17	20	360	130	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	ROK MLE	FCL Braves	—	51	46	11	1	1	1	4	8	1	4	0	239	314	370	683	130	247	16	8	270	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	A+ MLE	Rome Braves	—	501	446	109	20	0	6	39	116	13	16	5	244	323	330	653	85	309	23	8	292	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	32	30	3	0	0	0	0	10	2	0	0	100	156	100	256		150	31	0	131	-25	-5	+0	-1	+2	+1	-0.3
2024	21	AAA MLE	Gwinnett Stripers	—	289	257	71	8	1	8	26	56	5	10	2	276	354	409	763	132	324	19	9	335	113	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	AA MLE	Mississippi Braves	—	202	179	46	7	1	0	20	45	3	16	1	257	342	307	649	50	339	22	10	292	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	MLB MLE	Atlanta Braves	—	208	188	44	12	0	2	12	49	5	0	0	234	298	330	627	96	304	24	6	283	77	-6	+0	+2	+1	+5	0.2
2025	22	AAA MLE	Gwinnett Stripers	—	79	67	15	2	0	1	7	18	5	0	1	224	342	299	640	75	289	23	9	290	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	AAA MLE	Gwinnett Stripers	—	169	150	32	6	0	2	15	36	2	4	1	213	293	293	587	80	255	21	9	258	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	A MLE	2 teams	—	122	102	27	3	2	1	18	20	2	8	1	265	385	363	748	98	321	16	15	322	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	A RAW	2 teams	—	122	94	27	3	2	1	26	15	2	8	1	287	451	394	844	106	333	12	21	392	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	A+ MLE	Rome Braves	—	501	446	109	20	0	6	39	116	13	16	5	244	323	330	653	85	315	23	8	292	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	A+ RAW	Rome Braves	—	501	419	119	24	0	7	66	87	13	16	5	284	398	391	789	107	341	17	13	361	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	523	466	120	15	2	8	46	111	10	26	3	258	337	350	687	92	322	21	9	306	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	523	446	121	15	2	10	66	93	10	26	3	271	377	381	759	110	323	18	13	348	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	379	339	78	19	0	4	25	89	12	5	2	230	306	322	627	91	300	23	7	285	79	-10	+0	+2	+1	+8	0.2
2025	22	MLB RAW	3 teams	—	379	325	84	22	1	4	39	77	12	5	2	258	359	369	728	111	327	20	10	332	79	-10	+0	+2	+1	+8	0.2
2026	23	AAA MLE	Gwinnett Stripers	—	169	150	32	6	0	2	15	36	2	4	1	213	293	293	587	80	263	21	9	258	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	AAA RAW	Gwinnett Stripers	—	169	144	34	7	0	2	21	30	2	4	1	236	341	326	668	90	281	18	12	307	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	19	A MLE	2 teams	—	122	101	27	3	2	1	18	20	2	8	1	267	385	366	752	99	310	16	15	322	104	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	20	A+ MLE	Rome Braves	—	501	444	109	20	0	6	39	116	13	16	5	245	323	331	654	86	309	23	8	292	84	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	523	462	120	15	2	8	46	111	10	26	3	260	337	353	690	93	319	21	9	306	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	379	339	78	19	0	4	25	89	12	5	2	230	306	322	627	91	300	23	7	285	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	AAA MLE	Gwinnett Stripers	—	169	150	32	6	0	2	15	36	2	4	1	213	293	293	587	80	255	21	9	258	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	21	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	523	462	120	15	2	8	46	111	10	26	3	260	337	353	690	93	319	21	9	306	93	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	MLB MLE	3 teams	—	379	339	78	19	0	4	25	89	12	5	2	230	306	322	627	91	300	23	7	285	79	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	23	AAA MLE	Gwinnett Stripers	—	169	150	32	6	0	2	15	36	2	4	1	213	293	293	587	80	255	21	9	258	61	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	24	MLB MLE	ATL	45%	219	195	42	8	1	3	18	48	4	4	1	217	296	314	611	97	268	22	8	279	75	-6	+0	+0	+1	+5	0.2
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	24	MLB CTX	ATL	45%	99	89	19	4	0	1	8	22	2	2	1	217	296	314	611	97	268	22	8	279	75	-3	+0	+0	+0	+2	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	ATL	51%	349	310	69	13	1	6	29	76	7	6	2	219	298	321	619	102	269	22	8	282	77	-9	+0	+1	+1	+8	0.1
2029	26	MLB MLE	ATL	54%	397	354	78	15	1	7	33	87	7	7	2	219	299	323	622	104	269	22	8	284	78	-10	+1	+1	+1	+9	0.1
2030	27	MLB MLE	ATL	54%	407	362	79	15	1	7	34	89	8	7	2	218	298	321	618	103	268	22	8	282	77	-11	+1	+1	+1	+9	0.1
2031	28	MLB MLE	ATL	54%	411	366	80	15	1	7	34	91	8	6	2	216	296	316	612	100	267	22	8	280	75	-12	+0	+0	+1	+9	-0.1
2032	29	MLB MLE	ATL	53%	405	362	78	15	1	6	33	91	7	4	2	214	293	310	604	96	266	22	8	276	73	-13	+0	-1	+1	+9	-0.3
2033	30	MLB MLE	ATL	52%	400	357	76	14	1	6	33	91	7	3	1	211	290	303	593	92	265	23	8	272	70	-14	+0	-1	+1	+9	-0.5
2028	25	MLB CTX	ATL	51%	178	158	35	7	0	3	15	39	3	3	1	219	298	321	619	102	269	22	8	282	77	-5	+0	+0	+1	+4	0.0
2029	26	MLB CTX	ATL	54%	214	190	43	8	1	4	18	47	4	4	1	219	299	323	622	104	269	22	8	284	78	-6	+0	+0	+1	+5	0.1
2030	27	MLB CTX	ATL	54%	220	196	43	8	1	4	18	48	4	4	1	218	298	321	618	103	268	22	8	282	77	-6	+0	+0	+1	+5	0.0
2031	28	MLB CTX	ATL	54%	223	199	44	8	1	4	18	49	4	3	1	216	296	316	612	100	267	22	8	280	75	-7	+0	+0	+1	+5	-0.1
2032	29	MLB CTX	ATL	53%	215	191	41	8	0	3	18	48	4	2	1	214	293	310	604	96	266	22	8	276	73	-7	+0	-0	+1	+5	-0.2
2033	30	MLB CTX	ATL	52%	210	187	39	7	0	3	17	48	4	1	1	211	290	303	593	92	265	23	8	272	70	-7	-0	-1	+1	+5	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1500	1339	292	58	3	23	116	338	30	17	6	218	295	317	612	99	273	23	8	277	79	-48	+1	+2	+8	+32	-0.5
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	580	126	25	1	10	50	146	13	7	3	217	293	316	609	98	272	22	8	277	79	-21	+0	+1	+3	+14	-0.2
Career	—	MLE		—	4282	3809	868	158	11	63	357	945	87	96	24	228	308	325	633	97	285	22	8	285	79	-87	+3	+3	+12	+61	-0.8
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	578	133	24	2	10	54	143	13	15	4	230	310	330	640	100	287	22	8	285	79	-20	+1	+1	+3	+14	-0.2

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1George Strickland'50-'60 * career totals — 8 seasons, 3,266 PA	4.9	3,266	36	12	219*	302*	329*	+28	+19	3.8	5.0
/162	664	7	2	+5.7	+3.8	0.8	pk7: 6
#2Luis Rivera'86-'98 * career totals — 8 seasons, 2,453 PA	3.7	2,453	28	20	232*	291*	357*	+24	+5	1.2	2.3
/162	664	8	5	+6.4	+1.4	0.3	pk7: 3
#3Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
#4Lena Blackburne'10-'27 * career totals — 5 seasons, 2,086 PA	3.1	2,086	4	54	215*	288*	334*	+13	+11	2.0	2.0
/162	664	1	17	+4.2	+3.4	0.6	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 5 projected seasons	2.4	1,567	23	19	219	293	318	+15	+4	1.4	1.4
/162	664	10	8	+6.2	+1.7	0.6	pk7: 1
#5Abraham Torolast yr '25 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,561 PA	2.4	1,561	39	16	220	282	351	-1	-8	-0.5	-0.5
/162	664	17	7	-0.2	-3.2	-0.2	pk7: -0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Nacho Alvarez Jr. (OGILVIE)	24	45	30	45	55	215/294/312	96	268	3	4	22%	8%	75	-0.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Nick Allen 2023 · MLB	24	47→57	40	47→50	46	226/282/319	93	278	8	13	21%	7%	71	-0.8	244/302/334	90	290	7	16	17%	7%	81	-0.1	253/316/328	75	310	5	13	19%	8%	84	+0.1
✕Onix Vega 2023 · AAA	24	45	39→30	47→45	45	214/286/297	82	285	6	7	26%	7%	68	-1.0	202/274/271	69	262	5	6	23%	8%	57	-1.8	187/269/229	42	239	2	5	21%	9%	45	-1.0
✕Jonathan Esqueda 2009 · AAA	24	46	40→30	41→45	45	221/281/309	88	281	8	7	24%	7%	68	-1.0	228/282/333	105	293	9	11	24%	6%	74	-0.5	243/287/324	82	312	5	11	23%	5%	70	-0.3
✕Luis Porchas 2013 · AAA	23	50	40→30	44→50	44	238/297/327	89	296	8	11	22%	6%	78	-0.3	239/285/317	78	309	7	10	24%	5%	71	-0.8	242/284/294	52	319	3	9	24%	4%	61	-0.4
✕Gilberto Celestino 2023 · MLB	24	49→53	40→45	48→55	49	233/303/328	95	299	8	8	24%	8%	81	-0.1	239/313/332	93	310	8	12	23%	9%	86	+0.3	244/318/324	80	322	7	14	24%	9%	81	-0.0
✕Angelo Amendolare 2016 · AAA	23	47	37→30	44→50	51	220/294/294	73	264	4	7	18%	8%	70	-0.8	227/298/297	70	305	3	9	25%	8%	72	-0.7	237/314/279	43	327	0	10	25%	8%	70	-0.3
✕Bryan Lavastida 2023 · MLB	24	44	44→45	50→55	44	216/281/334	118	281	11	12	27%	7%	75	-0.5	220/289/334	114	283	11	21	25%	8%	78	-0.3	221/293/333	112	282	11	27	24%	8%	77	-0.2
✕Ramón Rodríguez 2023 · AAA	24	46	40	50→45	43	225/267/309	84	270	9	9	20%	5%	63	-1.4	223/285/325	102	248	10	7	15%	7%	74	-0.6	205/269/298	92	227	10	5	14%	7%	60	-0.6
✕Tyler Smith 2015 · AA	24	49→54	41→40	47→50	48	235/305/339	103	298	8	10	23%	8%	84	+0.1	233/291/317	84	297	6	8	22%	7%	74	-0.6	226/283/300	74	288	5	7	22%	6%	63	-1.0
✕Kevin Flores 2009 · AAA	24	44→49	39→40	48→45	42	215/261/299	85	271	6	10	23%	5%	58	-1.7	246/293/328	82	313	5	6	22%	5%	76	-0.4	271/313/347	76	348	4	1	22%	4%	85	+0.1
✕Freddy Zamora 2023 · AA	24	47→52	40	49→50	46	225/293/314	89	300	7	11	26%	8%	74	-0.5	216/287/298	82	290	6	14	26%	8%	68	-1.0	212/288/284	72	281	5	16	24%	8%	63	-0.9
✕Christian Herrera 2006 · AAA	24	50	43→40	50→45	51	240/313/356	116	304	9	11	23%	9%	91	+0.6	253/311/350	97	335	6	10	24%	7%	88	+0.5	252/306/329	77	330	4	7	23%	6%	79	-0.1
✕Kramer Robertson 2021 · AAA	26	44→50	41→40	45→55	51	213/298/311	98	259	8	13	20%	9%	76	-0.4	210/303/310	100	271	9	19	24%	10%	78	-0.3	197/300/279	83	260	7	22	25%	10%	68	-0.9
✕Alika Williams 2023 · AAA	24	42→45	42→45	43→45	44	210/266/307	97	266	10	7	25%	6%	62	-1.4	225/280/328	103	288	9	7	24%	6%	72	-0.7	245/294/352	106	307	8	5	22%	5%	80	-0.1
✕Jon Schemmel 2008 · AAA	25	51	36→30	44→45	52	238/321/305	67	286	4	6	17%	8%	83	+0.1	219/292/301	82	283	6	7	23%	8%	71	-0.8	180/258/235	54	241	4	3	25%	9%	40	-0.7
✕Juan Fernandez 2023 · AAA	24	51→58	38→40	50	45	244/301/321	77	309	6	10	22%	6%	78	-0.3	238/299/333	95	286	9	11	19%	7%	81	-0.1	234/299/328	94	270	10	11	17%	7%	76	-0.3
✕Andy González 2007 · AAA	25	51→54	39→40	45→50	48	244/307/334	90	303	6	12	21%	7%	83	+0.1	220/293/314	94	289	9	10	25%	9%	74	-0.5	218/292/305	87	277	10	5	24%	9%	70	-0.5
✕Noe Becerra 2011 · AAA	24	45	41→30	45→40	48	220/280/314	93	271	9	9	22%	7%	69	-0.9	241/293/324	83	278	6	6	15%	6%	76	-0.4	291/342/352	61	329	2	0	12%	6%	99	+0.4
✕Alex De Goti 2019 · AAA	24	45→48	43→45	43→50	42	220/274/331	111	279	10	8	25%	6%	71	-0.8	223/280/341	118	287	11	7	25%	6%	76	-0.4	215/283/323	108	279	9	6	25%	8%	70	-0.7
✕Tucupita Marcano 2023 · MLB	23	48→49	41→45	45→50	50	232/295/335	103	284	8	11	21%	8%	79	-0.2	239/292/365	126	287	10	13	20%	6%	85	+0.2	252/294/389	137	293	9	17	17%	4%	91	+0.3

Nacho Alvarez Jr.

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps