Julio Valdez — OGILVIE

Julio Valdez P ACL Cubs

Age 21 RHP 6'2" / 212 lbs ROK Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 0.2 · 2030

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 18 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 129121vR 113

ERA5.06

FIP5.06

K%19.8%

BB%13.1%

K-BB%6.7%

ROS IP19

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 18 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$5M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4555

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.9M		$0.5M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	20	ROK MLE	DSL Cubs Blue	20	0	31	138	27	16	0	0%	1.6	13.3%	14.5%	-1.2%	0.0%	4.02	3.81	—
2025	20	ROK MLE	DSL Cubs Blue	20	0	31	138	27	16	0	0%	1.6	13.3%	14.5%	-1.2%	0.0%	4.02	3.81	—
2025	20	ROK RAW	DSL Cubs Blue	20	0	31	138	27	16	0	0%	1.6	19.6%	11.6%	8.0%	0.0%	4.02	2.91	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	19	5	49	233	36	31	7	26%	2.6	10.7%	16.3%	-5.6%	4.2%	7.03	6.57	—
YTD	21	A MLE	Myrtle Beach Pelicans	19	5	49	233	36	31	7	26%	2.6	10.7%	16.3%	-5.6%	4.2%	7.03	6.57	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	21	ROK RAW	CHC	13	5	34	168	27	20	7	38%	2.6	16.1%	11.9%	4.2%	4.2%	7.94	5.54	—
2026	21	A RAW	CHC	6	0	15	65	9	11	0	0%	2.4	13.8%	16.9%	-3.1%	0.0%	4.91	4.07	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	CHC	48	0	50	212	45	24	6	0%	1.0	21.2%	11.6%	9.7%	2.8%	4.82	4.71	-0.1
2028	23	MLB MLE	CHC	50	0	52	220	49	23	6	0%	1.0	22.1%	10.6%	11.5%	2.8%	4.61	4.49	+0.0
2029	24	MLB MLE	CHC	51	0	53	225	51	22	6	0%	1.0	22.7%	9.9%	12.8%	2.8%	4.45	4.35	+0.1
2030	25	MLB MLE	CHC	51	0	54	228	53	22	6	0%	1.1	23.1%	9.5%	13.6%	2.8%	4.33	4.26	+0.2
2031	26	MLB MLE	CHC	51	0	54	228	53	22	6	0%	1.1	23.3%	9.5%	13.8%	2.8%	4.27	4.23	+0.2
2032	27	MLB MLE	CHC	51	0	53	225	52	21	6	0%	1.0	23.3%	9.6%	13.8%	2.8%	4.27	4.27	+0.2
2027	22	MLB CTX	CHC	24	0	25	106	22	12	3	0%	1.0	21.2%	11.6%	9.7%	2.7%	4.76	4.65	-0.0
2028	23	MLB CTX	CHC	36	0	38	160	35	17	4	0%	1.1	22.1%	10.6%	11.5%	2.7%	4.55	4.43	+0.0
2029	24	MLB CTX	CHC	42	0	44	186	42	18	5	0%	1.0	22.7%	9.9%	12.8%	2.7%	4.39	4.29	+0.1
2030	25	MLB CTX	CHC	46	0	48	203	47	19	5	0%	1.0	23.1%	9.5%	13.6%	2.7%	4.27	4.20	+0.2
2031	26	MLB CTX	CHC	47	0	49	207	48	20	6	0%	1.0	23.3%	9.5%	13.8%	2.7%	4.21	4.17	+0.2
2032	27	MLB CTX	CHC	47	0	49	207	48	20	6	0%	1.0	23.3%	9.6%	13.8%	2.7%	4.21	4.21	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		241	0	253	1068	243	106	29	0%	1.0	22.8%	9.9%	12.8%	2.7%	4.36	3.91	+1.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	192	84	23	0%	1.1	22.8%	9.9%	12.8%	2.7%	4.36	3.91	+1.5
Career	—	MLE		39	5	80	371	43	58	10	13%	2.1	11.7%	15.6%	-3.9%	2.6%	5.85	5.54	+0.6
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		98	12	200	928	108	145	24	13%	2.1	11.7%	15.6%	-3.9%	2.6%	5.85	5.54	+0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Julio Valdez (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.06	19.8%	13.1%	2.9%	—	4.51	22.0%	11.4%	155	-0.55	—	—	—
Rolddy Muñoz R 2021 · 4.32 FIP	21	SU	4.32	21.4%	13.7%	2.4%	.342	3.54	21.1%	9.8%	149	-0.78	3.18	287	86
Junior Rincon R 2015 · 4.93 FIP	23	SU	4.93	17.8%	13.8%	2.9%	.318	3.75	17.6%	5.1%	82	-1.18	3.52	113	86
Tanner Cooper R 2021 · 4.71 FIP	21	SW	4.71	17.1%	14.1%	2.3%	.338	5.15	14.4%	6.7%	121	+0.44	4.51	148	85
Brandon Komar R 2019 · 4.77 FIP	20	SW	4.77	17.7%	11.6%	3.1%	.327	4.93	16.7%	5.7%	198	+0.16	3.01	538	85
Tyler Santana R 2021 · 4.28 FIP	23	SU	4.28	20.3%	15.1%	1.8%	.333	4.37	16.0%	5.7%	259	+0.09	3.37	399	85
Josnier Parra R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	21	SU	4.56	15.9%	9.8%	2.9%	.319	5.01	12.1%	2.9%	118	+0.45	3.76	150	84
Logan Lombana R 2015 · 4.63 FIP	21	SU	4.63	16.9%	10.0%	3.1%	.315	4.02	15.7%	8.1%	123	-0.61	3.80	155	83
Yunior Montero R 2015 · 4.82 FIP	22	SW	4.82	16.9%	14.1%	2.5%	.276	4.58	21.5%	6.2%	91	-0.24	3.65	127	83
Brandyn Sittinger R 2017 · 4.37 FIP	23	SU	4.37	22.2%	13.8%	2.5%	.324	3.97	21.2%	7.2%	72	-0.40	3.58	152	83
Alec Barger R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SW	4.55	21.7%	13.6%	2.8%	.289	4.17	21.3%	9.4%	148	-0.38	3.85	242	83
Adam Ravenelle R 2015 · 4.32 FIP	22	SU	4.32	19.6%	14.8%	1.8%	.322	5.06	17.1%	4.3%	130	+0.74	4.32	165	83
Jeremy Beasley R 2017 · 4.71 FIP	21	SU	4.71	19.5%	11.6%	3.3%	.273	4.10	17.7%	8.7%	234	-0.61	3.17	337	83
Jayson McKinley R 2017 · 4.39 FIP	23	SU	4.39	17.5%	11.4%	2.4%	.308	3.60	20.4%	11.3%	134	-0.79	2.35	173	83
Kyle Zurak R 2017 · 3.96 FIP	22	SU	3.96	21.2%	9.4%	2.6%	.302	3.42	16.7%	7.5%	121	-0.54	3.20	181	83
Blake Holub R 2022 · 4.55 FIP	23	SU	4.55	21.7%	15.3%	2.4%	.339	3.76	23.1%	12.3%	156	-0.79	3.23	254	83
Tyler Smith R 2018 · 5.30 FIP	22	SU	5.30	17.8%	14.3%	3.4%	.329	4.35	19.8%	7.8%	94	-0.95	3.44	121	83
Audry Lugo R 2019 · 4.05 FIP	20	SU	4.05	18.5%	11.4%	2.0%	.247	5.30	15.6%	-0.4%	77	+1.25	4.05	113	83
Sean Isaac R 2016 · 4.27 FIP	23	SU	4.27	19.5%	12.3%	2.3%	.342	3.76	25.0%	10.7%	128	-0.51	3.27	155	83
Joel Garcia R 2023 · 4.26 FIP	19	SW	4.26	18.4%	13.0%	1.9%	.341	3.88	16.7%	9.5%	72	-0.38	3.02	104	82
Francisco Moreno R 2016 · 4.36 FIP	21	SU	4.36	14.9%	11.5%	1.9%	.297	6.32	9.9%	-2.0%	84	+1.96	3.88	162	82

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	48	22.5%	10.2%	1.09	4.49
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Dominic Leone ('23)	1.6	46	24.2%	10.1%	1.33	3.81
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Cam Bedrosian ('21)	1.3	45	24.5%	10.0%	0.97	3.68
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59