Nick Bautista III prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Nick Bautista III P St. Lucie Mets

Age 24 RHP 6'3" / 200 lbs A

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 12 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 134126vR 118

ERA5.30

FIP5.30

K%20.9%

BB%15.2%

K-BB%5.7%

ROS IP13

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 12 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	21	ROK MLE	ACL Rangers	17	0	19	94	35	16	1	0%	1.1	25.3%	21.3%	4.0%	1.3%	6.05	4.38	—
2023	21	ROK MLE	ACL Rangers	17	0	19	94	35	16	1	0%	1.1	25.3%	21.3%	4.0%	1.3%	6.05	4.38	—
2023	21	ROK RAW	ACL Rangers	17	0	19	94	35	16	1	0%	1.1	37.2%	17.0%	20.2%	1.1%	6.05	2.63	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	0	23	118	23	18	3	0%	1.4	14.8%	18.5%	-3.7%	4.1%	7.43	6.44	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	17	0	23	118	23	18	3	0%	1.4	14.8%	18.5%	-3.7%	4.1%	7.43	6.44	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	17	0	23	118	23	18	3	0%	1.4	19.5%	15.3%	4.2%	2.5%	7.43	5.14	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	24	MLB	NYM	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	20.9%	15.2%	5.7%	3.0%	5.30	5.30	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	25	MLB MLE	NYM	20	0	21	89	19	12	3	0%	1.1	21.5%	13.4%	8.2%	3.0%	5.09	5.01	-0.1
2027	25	MLB CTX	NYM	9	0	9	38	8	5	1	0%	1.0	21.5%	13.4%	8.2%	3.0%	5.09	5.01	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		9	0	9	38	8	5	1	0%	1.0	21.5%	13.4%	8.2%	3.0%	5.09	4.63	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	178	111	22	0%	1.1	21.5%	13.4%	8.2%	3.0%	5.09	4.63	-0.2
Career	—	MLE		34	0	42	212	41	42	6	0%	1.2	19.5%	19.7%	-0.3%	2.9%	6.80	5.53	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		161	0	200	1002	195	197	29	0%	1.2	19.5%	19.7%	-0.3%	2.9%	6.80	5.53	-1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Nick Bautista III (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.30	20.9%	15.2%	3.0%	—	5.01	21.5%	8.2%	21	-0.29	—	—	—
Easton Sikorski R 2023 · 4.85 FIP	23	SU	4.85	20.9%	14.1%	3.1%	.254	4.62	17.5%	6.3%	154	-0.23	4.23	183	89
Francisco Del Rosario R 2006 · 5.13 FIP	25	SU	5.13	19.4%	13.0%	3.7%	.290	3.93	19.7%	10.3%	26	-1.20	3.93	194	88
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	88
Maikel Cleto R 2014 · 4.24 FIP	25	SU	4.24	23.2%	15.2%	2.1%	.256	3.45	25.4%	14.5%	106	-0.79	2.59	185	87
Craig Schlitter R 2016 · 4.53 FIP	24	SU	4.53	22.7%	15.4%	2.5%	.298	4.67	14.7%	4.2%	171	+0.14	4.25	222	87
Hunter Parsons R 2021 · 5.38 FIP	24	SU	5.38	21.4%	15.3%	3.9%	.247	4.78	21.8%	10.2%	115	-0.60	4.73	183	87
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.18	22.3%	9.0%	119	-0.38	2.12	165	86
Colin McKee R 2018 · 5.00 FIP	24	SU	5.00	24.2%	14.7%	3.8%	.330	4.35	27.7%	12.9%	97	-0.65	4.18	148	85
Michael Bowden R 2011 · 4.93 FIP	24	SU	4.93	18.9%	12.2%	3.4%	.271	4.22	17.1%	8.1%	77	-0.71	3.21	269	85
Kasey Ford R 2022 · 5.12 FIP	24	SU	5.12	21.3%	14.7%	3.6%	.302	3.83	22.2%	5.5%	65	-1.29	2.53	114	85
Michael Blazek R 2013 · 5.52 FIP	24	SU	5.52	16.7%	15.5%	3.4%	.241	3.81	19.8%	10.3%	97	-1.71	2.99	238	84
Kevin Kopps R 2022 · 4.56 FIP	25	SU	4.56	20.2%	15.1%	2.3%	.278	4.40	16.3%	4.0%	182	-0.16	3.45	237	84
Cody Scroggins R 2021 · 5.35 FIP	24	SU	5.35	17.4%	15.1%	3.3%	.263	4.28	18.6%	4.4%	59	-1.07	3.78	108	84
Reid Schaller R 2021 · 4.60 FIP	24	SU	4.60	20.2%	13.1%	2.8%	.298	3.89	22.0%	11.4%	90	-0.71	3.61	186	84
Dakota Mekkes R 2019 · 4.58 FIP	24	SU	4.58	23.1%	15.4%	2.7%	.290	4.85	16.7%	1.8%	70	+0.27	2.94	246	84
Jake Gilbert R 2021 · 4.14 FIP	24	SU	4.14	22.1%	15.2%	1.8%	.314	4.65	18.2%	2.0%	53	+0.51	4.14	103	84
Chad Harville R 2003 · 5.17 FIP	26	SU	5.17	17.3%	15.4%	2.9%	.328	4.84	17.6%	6.5%	142	-0.33	4.51	178	84
Todd Wellemeyer R 2003 · 5.14 FIP	24	SU	5.14	24.6%	14.8%	4.1%	.290	4.56	18.9%	4.8%	135	-0.58	3.35	615	84
Tanner Duncan R 2019 · 5.37 FIP	24	SU	5.37	17.5%	14.8%	3.4%	.301	—	—	—	—	—	3.28	123	84
Logan VanWey R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	24	SU	4.34	23.9%	14.0%	2.7%	.301	3.74	25.9%	15.2%	147	-0.60	2.97	194	84