Juan Mercedes

P Cedar Rapids Kernels

Age 25 RHP 5'10" / 181 lbs A+

Overview

A+PROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	21	MIX2 levels	13	6	41	3.95	3.12	26.1%	10.2%	—	K 18.5% · BB 12.2% · FIP 4.33
2024	22	MIX2 levels	33	0	47	5.55	3.84	24.3%	9.6%	—	K 18.4% · BB 11.2% · FIP 4.55
2025	23	A+MIN	9	0	12	9.26	5.76	14.5%	19.4%	—	K 11.2% · BB 22.3% · FIP 6.13
2027PROJ	25	MLBMIN	11	0	12	5.15	5.15	19.7%	13.4%	-0.1
2028PROJ43% MLB	26	MLBMIN	9	0	9	5.04	5.03	20.4%	12.9%	-0.0

Next 2 projected WAR -0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

CompsFrancisco Del Rosario (age 25) · Luis Vizcaino (age 25) · Casey Fien (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 131123vR 115

ERA5.15

FIP5.15

K%19.7%

BB%13.4%

K-BB%6.3%

Proj IP12

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 12 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†4550

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	20	ROK MLE	DSL Twins	12	1	16	83	26	16	5	8%	1.4	21.3%	24.1%	-2.8%	8.2%	5.51	8.84	—
2022	20	ROK RAW	DSL Twins	12	1	16	83	26	16	5	8%	1.4	31.3%	19.3%	12.0%	6.0%	5.51	6.83	—
2023	21	MIX MLE	2 levels	13	6	41	176	46	18	3	46%	3.2	18.5%	12.2%	6.3%	2.3%	3.95	4.33	—
2023	21	MIX RAW	2 levels	13	6	41	176	46	18	3	46%	3.2	26.1%	10.2%	15.9%	1.7%	3.95	3.12	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	0	47	218	53	21	6	0%	1.4	18.4%	11.2%	7.2%	2.9%	5.55	4.55	—
2024	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	33	0	47	218	53	21	6	0%	1.4	18.4%	11.2%	7.2%	2.9%	5.55	4.55	—
2024	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	33	0	47	218	53	21	6	0%	1.4	24.3%	9.6%	14.7%	2.8%	5.55	3.84	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	9	0	12	62	9	12	1	0%	1.3	11.2%	22.3%	-11.1%	2.1%	9.26	6.13	—
2025	23	A+ MLE	Cedar Rapids Kernels	9	0	12	62	9	12	1	0%	1.3	11.2%	22.3%	-11.1%	2.1%	9.26	6.13	—
2025	23	A+ RAW	Cedar Rapids Kernels	9	0	12	62	9	12	1	0%	1.3	14.5%	19.4%	-4.8%	1.6%	9.26	5.76	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	MIN	11	0	12	51	10	7	2	0%	1.1	19.7%	13.4%	6.3%	3.0%	5.15	5.15	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	MIN	19	0	20	84	17	11	3	0%	1.1	20.4%	12.9%	7.5%	3.0%	5.04	5.03	-0.1
2028	26	MLB CTX	MIN	9	0	9	38	8	5	1	0%	1.0	20.4%	12.9%	7.5%	3.0%	5.04	5.03	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		8	0	9	36	7	5	1	0%	1.1	20.4%	12.9%	7.5%	3.0%	5.04	4.65	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	163	116	23	0%	1.1	20.4%	12.9%	7.5%	3.0%	5.04	4.65	-0.2
Career	—	MLE		67	7	116	539	97	80	18	10%	1.7	18.1%	14.8%	3.2%	3.4%	5.35	5.32	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		116	12	200	929	168	138	32	10%	1.7	18.1%	14.8%	3.2%	3.4%	5.35	5.32	-1.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Juan Mercedes (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.15	19.7%	13.4%	3.0%	—	5.03	20.4%	7.5%	20	-0.12	—	—	—
Francisco Del Rosario R 2006 · 5.13 FIP	25	SU	5.13	19.4%	13.0%	3.7%	.290	3.93	19.7%	10.3%	26	-1.20	3.93	194	91
Luis Vizcaino R 2000 · 4.11 FIP	25	SU	4.11	18.8%	11.5%	2.1%	.354	4.31	22.7%	14.9%	180	+0.20	3.07	564	86
Casey Fien R 2009 · 5.17 FIP	25	SU	5.17	17.0%	11.3%	3.8%	.306	2.79	22.7%	19.2%	35	-2.38	2.79	308	85
Hayden Snelsire R 2024 · 5.10 FIP	23	SU	5.10	18.9%	13.8%	3.4%	.272	4.28	20.0%	13.7%	135	-0.82	3.83	178	85
Andrew McInvale R 2022 · 5.15 FIP	25	SU	5.15	17.6%	15.9%	2.8%	.324	6.44	24.5%	10.0%	23	+1.29	4.92	103	83
Ryan Conroy R 2022 · 4.75 FIP	25	SU	4.75	19.3%	12.6%	3.1%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	106	83
Kevin Kopps R 2022 · 4.56 FIP	25	SU	4.56	20.2%	15.1%	2.3%	.278	4.40	16.3%	4.0%	182	-0.16	3.45	237	83
Haden Erbe R 2024 · 5.28 FIP	25	SU	5.28	18.4%	16.5%	3.0%	.320	5.19	17.8%	0.5%	40	-0.09	5.19	116	82
Dylan Hall R 2023 · 3.98 FIP	25	SU	3.98	21.0%	13.2%	1.8%	.305	7.24	15.1%	2.4%	58	+3.26	3.47	153	82
Garrett Apker R 2024 · 4.01 FIP	24	SU	4.01	19.8%	11.2%	2.1%	.288	8.46	15.4%	-7.6%	11	+4.45	4.01	101	82
Derek Eitel R 2015 · 4.35 FIP	27	SU	4.35	18.1%	13.9%	1.8%	.338	4.26	19.7%	5.0%	113	-0.09	3.96	138	82
Sean Wymer R 2022 · 4.71 FIP	25	SU	4.71	18.2%	14.1%	2.5%	.227	—	—	—	—	—	4.18	188	81
Marc Brakeman R 2018 · 4.67 FIP	24	SU	4.67	18.3%	13.7%	2.5%	.294	—	—	—	—	—	3.85	156	81
David Holman R 2017 · 5.53 FIP	27	SU	5.53	15.6%	12.7%	3.9%	.324	5.45	9.6%	0.5%	107	-0.08	5.28	129	81
Maikel Cleto R 2014 · 4.24 FIP	25	SU	4.24	23.2%	15.2%	2.1%	.256	3.45	25.4%	14.5%	106	-0.79	2.59	185	81
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	81
Thad Weber R 2013 · 5.18 FIP	28	SU	5.18	16.4%	13.1%	3.3%	.244	4.52	12.2%	6.0%	308	-0.66	4.40	378	81
Josh Harlow R 2024 · 5.17 FIP	23	SU	5.17	18.5%	13.5%	3.5%	.266	5.73	17.1%	-4.2%	51	+0.56	5.17	107	81
Nick Ernst R 2022 · 5.05 FIP	25	SU	5.05	21.9%	14.6%	3.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	117	81
Will Latcham R 2021 · 4.30 FIP	25	SU	4.30	18.8%	11.5%	2.4%	.279	—	—	—	—	—	3.52	134	81