Dawson Brown

P Amarillo Sod Poodles

Age 26 RHP 6'1" / 200 lbs AA

Overview

AAPROSPECT

ETA2029MLB%2%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	24	MIX2 levels	37	45	3.60	2.99	22.5%	14.2%	—	K 17.0% · BB 16.5% · FIP 3.75
2026	25	MIX3 levels	34	62	4.62	3.42	27.3%	12.7%	—	K 20.9% · BB 15.2% · FIP 4.59
2027PROJ	26	MLBARI	34	36	5.15	5.15	20.5%	14.8%	-0.2
2028PROJ38% MLB	27	MLBARI	20	21	5.09	5.10	20.8%	14.3%	-0.1
2029PROJ60% MLB	28	MLBARI	30	32	5.09	5.13	20.8%	14.1%	-0.2

Next 3 projected WAR -0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsSpencer Bivens (age 28) · Nolan Riggs (age 25) · Nick Ernst (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 131123vR 115

ERA5.15

FIP5.15

K%20.5%

BB%14.8%

K-BB%5.7%

Proj IP36

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 36 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	0	45	204	46	29	0	0%	1.2	17.0%	16.5%	0.5%	0.0%	3.60	3.75	—
2025	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	37	0	45	204	46	29	0	0%	1.2	17.0%	16.5%	0.5%	0.0%	3.60	3.75	—
2025	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	37	0	45	204	46	29	0	0%	1.2	22.5%	14.2%	8.3%	0.0%	3.60	2.99	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	34	0	62	275	75	35	5	0%	1.8	20.9%	15.2%	5.7%	2.4%	4.62	4.59	—
2026	25	MIX MLE	3 levels	34	0	62	275	75	35	5	0%	1.8	20.9%	15.2%	5.7%	2.4%	4.62	4.59	—
2026	25	MIX RAW	3 levels	34	0	62	275	75	35	5	0%	1.8	27.3%	12.7%	14.5%	1.8%	4.62	3.42	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	26	MLB	ARI	34	0	36	152	31	23	4	0%	1.1	20.5%	14.8%	5.7%	2.8%	5.15	5.15	-0.2
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	27	MLB MLE	ARI	53	0	55	233	49	34	7	0%	1.0	20.8%	14.3%	6.4%	2.8%	5.09	5.10	-0.3
2029	28	MLB MLE	ARI	51	0	54	226	47	32	7	0%	1.1	20.8%	14.1%	6.7%	3.0%	5.09	5.13	-0.4
2028	27	MLB CTX	ARI	20	0	21	89	18	13	3	0%	1.1	20.8%	14.3%	6.4%	2.8%	5.09	5.10	-0.1
2029	28	MLB CTX	ARI	30	0	32	135	28	19	4	0%	1.1	20.8%	14.1%	6.7%	3.0%	5.09	5.13	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		50	0	53	222	46	32	6	0%	1.1	20.8%	14.2%	6.6%	2.9%	5.09	4.74	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	175	121	23	0%	1.1	20.8%	14.2%	6.6%	2.9%	5.09	4.74	-0.4
Career	—	MLE		71	0	107	479	92	76	7	0%	1.5	19.2%	15.8%	3.5%	1.4%	4.19	4.24	-0.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		132	0	200	893	172	141	12	0%	1.5	19.2%	15.8%	3.5%	1.4%	4.19	4.24	-1.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Dawson Brown (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.15	20.5%	14.8%	2.8%	—	5.11	20.8%	6.6%	109	-0.04	—	—	—
Spencer Bivens R 2022 · 4.86 FIP	28	SU	4.86	19.8%	13.5%	3.1%	.265	3.85	18.1%	10.3%	272	-1.01	3.52	391	88
Nolan Riggs R 2018 · 4.49 FIP	25	SU	4.49	20.7%	14.0%	2.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	132	87
Nick Ernst R 2022 · 5.05 FIP	25	SU	5.05	21.9%	14.6%	3.5%	.275	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	117	87
Sam Gardner R 2023 · 4.04 FIP	26	SU	4.04	23.8%	15.1%	1.9%	.298	3.23	26.7%	16.4%	76	-0.81	2.28	121	86
Derek Eitel R 2015 · 4.35 FIP	27	SU	4.35	18.1%	13.9%	1.8%	.338	4.26	19.7%	5.0%	113	-0.09	3.96	138	86
Armando Rivero R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	27	SU	4.29	18.7%	13.5%	1.9%	.256	2.70	32.9%	19.8%	68	-1.59	2.70	125	86
Esmerling Vasquez R 2010 · 4.37 FIP	26	SU	4.37	22.9%	14.6%	2.5%	.278	4.23	12.5%	1.5%	62	-0.14	3.70	204	85
Justin Courtney R 2022 · 5.11 FIP	26	SU	5.11	16.8%	12.8%	3.3%	.331	8.63	18.4%	7.1%	21	+3.52	4.58	108	85
Keagan Gillies R 2024 · 4.02 FIP	26	SU	4.02	21.1%	13.3%	1.9%	.306	3.91	20.0%	14.4%	74	-0.11	2.93	177	85
Haden Erbe R 2024 · 5.28 FIP	25	SU	5.28	18.4%	16.5%	3.0%	.320	5.19	17.8%	0.5%	40	-0.09	5.19	116	85
Cody Scroggins R 2022 · 4.50 FIP	25	SU	4.50	20.5%	16.2%	2.0%	.351	3.78	14.2%	4.6%	18	-0.72	3.78	108	84
Juan Paniagua R 2016 · 4.57 FIP	26	SU	4.57	17.7%	14.7%	2.0%	.246	4.75	12.9%	-1.0%	29	+0.18	4.57	151	84
Jake Gilbert R 2022 · 4.65 FIP	25	SU	4.65	18.2%	16.2%	1.9%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	4.14	103	84
Matt Lollis R 2016 · 4.95 FIP	25	SU	4.95	19.2%	14.5%	3.0%	.221	—	—	—	—	—	4.56	120	84
Ryan Conroy R 2022 · 4.75 FIP	25	SU	4.75	19.3%	12.6%	3.1%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	106	84
Dusty Isaacs R 2018 · 5.26 FIP	26	SU	5.26	19.3%	14.1%	3.7%	.287	3.16	26.8%	20.6%	26	-2.10	3.16	253	84
Holt Jones R 2024 · 4.36 FIP	25	SU	4.36	19.0%	15.0%	1.8%	.326	4.32	22.4%	8.3%	123	-0.04	4.21	254	83
Grant Sides R 2015 · 3.96 FIP	26	SU	3.96	17.2%	13.2%	1.2%	.266	3.83	22.4%	10.5%	62	-0.13	3.31	159	83
Hayden Snelsire R 2024 · 5.10 FIP	23	SU	5.10	18.9%	13.8%	3.4%	.272	4.28	20.0%	13.7%	135	-0.82	3.83	178	83
Billy Seidl R 2024 · 4.53 FIP	24	SU	4.53	18.3%	14.2%	2.2%	.250	—	—	—	—	—	3.34	102	83

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.7	48	20.7%	14.4%	1.11	5.11
Doug Bochtler ('00)	1.3	65	18.6%	14.4%	1.25	4.57
John Hudek ('99)	1.0	40	23.0%	13.7%	1.30	4.43
Richie Lewis ('98)	1.5	59	18.1%	14.1%	1.38	4.88
Ron Piche ('60-'66, -3 WAR*)	1.1	44	20.6%*	12.8%*	1.14*	5.06*
Dwayne Henry ('84-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.7	67	23.8%*	14.2%*	0.90*	5.02*
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*