Adrian Santana

SS Bowling Green Hot Rods

Age 22 S/R 5'11" / 155 lbs A+ HR -6%H +4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2034

Scout OFP41ETA2029FG ETA2027MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	20	A+TB	409	.263/.329/.326	2	47	55	—	.230/.274/.283
2026	21	AAMIA	142	.246/.326/.310	0	7	68	—	.238/.298/.300
2026	21	A+TB	241	.316/.381/.400	3	23	92	—	.291/.339/.368
2027PROJ0% MLB	22	MLBTB	2	.238/.287/.301	0	0	65	-0.0
2028PROJ35% MLB	23	MLBTB	155	.244/.294/.323	2	7	73	0.2
2029PROJ46% MLB	24	MLBTB	227	.247/.299/.338	3	10	79	0.4

Next 3 projected WAR 0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2033Service0.0First FA2034

2027MiLB2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Pre-Arb$0.8M2031Arb-1$4M2032Arb-2$6M2033Arb-3$8M

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 AA

Whiff%99

K%95

Z-Con%95

Speed74

Chase%47

BB%45

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 14, comp-based) · star 5% · didn't stick 80%

CompsYonny Hernández (age 21) · Rodolfo Penalo (age 22) · Jesus Galindo (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†65

AVG/OBP/SLG.238 / .287 / .301

PA2

HR0

K%16

BB%6

BABIP278

ISO64

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$6M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 48 / POW 26

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT48

scouting grade only

POWER26

scouting grade only

EYE39

scouting grade only

SPEED63

scouting grade only

DEFENSE58

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.2	$0.7M	+$0.0M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.7M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2031	Arb-1	$4M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-2	$6M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Arb-3	$8M	+0.6	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$2M		$10M	+$2M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2023	18	ROK	FCL Rays	—	47	39	8	2	0	0	7	9	1	3	0	205	340	256	597	51	267	19	15	290	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A	Charleston RiverDogs	—	455	417	100	21	3	0	34	72	2	51	9	240	300	305	605	65	289	16	7	276	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A+	Bowling Green Hot Rods	—	409	365	96	13	2	2	35	49	1	47	8	263	329	326	655	63	293	12	9	295	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	AA	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	—	142	126	31	8	0	0	14	20	1	7	0	246	326	310	636	63	292	14	10	293	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A+	Bowling Green Hot Rods	—	241	215	68	7	1	3	19	23	4	23	5	316	381	400	781	84	342	10	8	351	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2023	18	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	—	47	41	6	1	0	0	5	13	1	3	0	146	255	171	426	24	217	28	11	207	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	—	455	428	84	17	2	0	23	99	2	51	9	196	241	245	486	49	256	22	5	220	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	—	409	378	87	10	2	2	22	63	1	47	8	230	274	283	557	53	259	15	5	249	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	AA MLE	Pensacola Blue Wahoos	—	142	130	31	8	0	0	10	24	1	7	0	238	298	300	598	62	296	17	7	269	68	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	—	241	223	65	6	1	3	12	30	4	23	5	291	339	368	707	76	317	12	5	304	92	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	—	47	41	6	1	0	0	5	13	1	3	0	146	255	171	426	24	214	28	11	207	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	FCL Rays	—	47	39	8	2	0	0	7	9	1	3	0	205	340	256	597	51	267	19	15	290	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	—	455	428	84	17	2	0	23	99	2	51	9	196	241	245	486	49	255	22	5	220	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A RAW	Charleston RiverDogs	—	455	417	100	21	3	0	34	72	2	51	9	240	300	305	605	65	289	16	7	276	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	—	409	378	87	10	2	2	22	63	1	47	8	230	274	283	557	53	266	15	5	249	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A+ RAW	Bowling Green Hot Rods	—	409	365	96	13	2	2	35	49	1	47	8	263	329	326	655	63	293	12	9	295	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	383	353	96	14	1	3	22	55	5	30	5	272	324	343	666	71	314	14	6	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A+ RAW	2 teams	—	383	341	99	15	1	3	33	43	5	30	5	290	361	367	727	76	324	11	9	330	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	FCL Rays	—	47	41	6	1	0	0	5	13	1	3	0	146	255	171	426	24	217	28	11	207	26	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	—	455	427	84	17	2	0	23	99	2	51	9	197	241	246	487	49	256	22	5	220	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	—	409	383	87	10	2	2	22	63	1	47	8	227	274	279	554	52	259	15	5	249	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	383	353	96	14	1	3	22	55	5	30	5	272	324	343	666	71	309	14	6	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	19	A MLE	Charleston RiverDogs	—	455	427	84	17	2	0	23	99	2	51	9	197	241	246	487	49	256	22	5	220	35	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A+ MLE	Bowling Green Hot Rods	—	409	383	87	10	2	2	22	63	1	47	8	227	274	279	554	52	259	15	5	249	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A+ MLE	2 teams	—	383	353	96	14	1	3	22	55	5	30	5	272	324	343	666	71	309	14	6	291	83	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	22	MLB MLE	TB	0%	493	459	108	17	2	3	28	77	3	24	4	235	284	299	583	64	275	16	6	265	65	-20	+3	+0	+5	+11	0.2
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	22	MLB CTX	TB	0%	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	238	287	301	588	63	278	0	0	267	65	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	TB	35%	447	415	100	15	2	5	26	70	3	20	3	241	291	322	613	81	276	16	6	277	73	-14	+3	+1	+5	+10	0.4
2029	24	MLB MLE	TB	46%	492	455	111	17	2	7	30	77	4	21	4	244	296	337	633	93	278	16	6	285	79	-12	+3	+2	+5	+11	0.9
2030	25	MLB MLE	TB	52%	515	474	116	18	2	8	32	82	4	20	3	246	299	346	646	101	279	16	6	290	82	-11	+3	+3	+6	+11	1.2
2031	26	MLB MLE	TB	54%	527	484	119	19	2	9	34	86	4	19	3	246	301	351	652	105	279	16	6	293	84	-10	+3	+3	+6	+11	1.4
2032	27	MLB MLE	TB	54%	530	486	120	19	2	10	35	89	4	18	3	245	301	352	653	106	280	17	7	293	84	-10	+2	+4	+6	+11	1.3
2033	28	MLB MLE	TB	54%	528	484	118	19	2	9	35	89	4	16	3	244	299	347	646	104	279	17	7	290	83	-11	+2	+3	+6	+11	1.1
2034	29	MLB MLE	TB	53%	519	476	116	18	2	9	34	89	4	13	2	241	296	342	638	100	278	17	7	287	80	-12	+2	+2	+6	+11	0.9
2035	30	MLB MLE	TB	52%	509	468	113	18	2	8	33	89	3	11	2	239	293	334	627	96	277	17	6	282	77	-14	+1	+1	+5	+11	0.6
2036	31	MLB MLE	TB	52%	496	459	108	17	2	7	31	89	3	8	2	235	288	325	613	90	274	18	6	277	73	-16	+1	+0	+5	+11	0.2
2028	23	MLB CTX	TB	35%	155	144	35	5	1	2	9	24	1	7	1	244	294	323	617	80	280	15	6	279	73	-5	+1	+0	+2	+3	0.2
2029	24	MLB CTX	TB	46%	227	209	52	8	1	3	14	36	2	10	2	247	299	338	637	91	282	16	6	287	79	-6	+1	+1	+2	+5	0.4
2030	25	MLB CTX	TB	52%	266	245	60	9	1	4	17	42	2	10	2	249	302	347	649	99	282	16	6	292	82	-6	+1	+2	+3	+6	0.6
2031	26	MLB CTX	TB	54%	286	264	65	10	1	5	18	47	2	10	2	249	303	352	655	103	283	16	6	294	84	-5	+1	+2	+3	+6	0.7
2032	27	MLB CTX	TB	54%	288	265	65	10	1	5	19	48	2	10	2	248	303	352	655	104	283	17	7	294	84	-5	+1	+2	+3	+6	0.7
2033	28	MLB CTX	TB	54%	287	264	65	10	1	5	19	49	2	8	2	246	301	348	649	102	282	17	7	292	83	-6	+1	+2	+3	+6	0.6
2034	29	MLB CTX	TB	53%	276	254	61	9	1	4	18	47	2	7	1	244	299	342	641	98	281	17	7	288	80	-6	+1	+1	+3	+6	0.5
2035	30	MLB CTX	TB	52%	267	246	59	9	1	4	17	47	2	6	1	241	295	335	630	94	280	18	6	284	77	-7	+1	+1	+3	+6	0.3
2036	31	MLB CTX	TB	52%	258	238	57	9	1	4	16	46	2	4	1	237	291	326	616	89	278	18	6	278	73	-8	+0	+0	+3	+6	0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2310	2129	519	79	9	36	147	386	17	72	14	244	298	340	638	96	281	17	6	288	74	-55	+9	+11	+25	+50	4.0
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	599	146	22	3	10	41	109	5	20	4	244	298	341	638	97	282	17	6	288	74	-15	+2	+3	+7	+14	1.1
Career	—	MLE		—	6177	5698	1364	213	24	79	380	1040	44	293	50	239	292	327	619	87	279	17	6	277	74	-123	+21	+21	+52	+106	7.9
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	600	143	22	3	8	40	109	5	31	5	238	292	325	617	87	277	17	6	277	74	-16	+3	+3	+7	+14	1.1

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Cliff Penningtonlast yr '17 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,108 PA	4.7	3,108	36	84	243	310	341	+28	+29	9.2	9.5
/162	664	8	18	+5.9	+6.2	2.0	pk7: 10
#2José Perazalast yr '21 career totals — 6 seasons, 2,134 PA	3.2	2,134	35	76	266	307	373	+14	+31	8.6	8.6
/162	664	11	24	+4.5	+9.7	2.7	pk7: 9
#3Pokey Reese'97-'04 * career totals — 8 seasons, 3,138 PA	4.7	3,138	44	144	238*	292*	339*	+19	+41	4.0	4.7
/162	664	9	30	+4.0	+8.7	0.8	pk7: 5
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 5 projected seasons	3.5	2,310	37	72	243	294	342	+25	+16	4.2	4.0
/162	664	11	21	+7.1	+4.6	1.2	pk7: 4
#4Bill Cissell'28-'38 * career totals — 9 seasons, 3,998 PA	6.0	3,998	29	113	240*	284*	363*	+27	+22	2.2	3.8
/162	664	5	19	+4.5	+3.7	0.4	pk7: 5
#5Lennie Merullo'41-'47 * career totals — 6 seasons, 2,264 PA	3.4	2,264	6	38	234*	283*	339*	+24	+15	3.3	3.3
/162	664	2	11	+7.1	+4.4	1.0	pk7: 3
#6Chris Getzlast yr '13 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,539 PA	2.3	1,539	3	86	251	310	309	+5	+12	2.7	2.7
/162	664	1	37	+2.4	+5.1	1.2	pk7: 3

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Adrian Santana (OGILVIE)	22	37→48	20→26	61→63	39	233/282/297	63	275	2	16	16%	6%	65	-0.6	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Yonny Hernández 2019 · AA	21	49→59	35→30	56→60	53	229/308/291	62	282	2	27	18%	9%	74	-0.5	240/331/296	56	307	2	27	20%	10%	84	+0.2	266/328/324	58	317	2	17	16%	7%	85	+0.1
✕Rodolfo Penalo 2015 · A	22	45	36→30	59→65	55	206/294/273	67	255	2	31	19%	10%	65	-1.2	202/272/269	67	274	3	16	25%	8%	55	-1.9	164/228/210	46	226	0	10	25%	7%	23	-1.2
✕Jesus Galindo 2013 · A	22	48→50	35→30	60→65	46	221/284/282	61	282	2	35	21%	7%	63	-1.4	229/278/295	66	316	3	30	27%	5%	63	-1.4	229/276/289	60	318	2	31	27%	5%	58	-1.1
✕Carlos Willoughby 2011 · A	22	46→43	36→40	62→60	51	213/294/286	73	268	2	28	20%	8%	68	-1.0	204/273/269	65	266	2	17	22%	8%	56	-1.9	197/269/254	57	255	1	17	21%	8%	49	-1.6
✕Andrew Romine 2009 · A	23	47→55	37→40	57→55	46	222/276/297	75	275	4	28	20%	6%	63	-1.4	239/294/306	67	302	3	22	20%	7%	72	-0.7	239/296/327	88	295	7	19	20%	6%	78	-0.1
✕Shawn O'Malley 2011 · AA	23	47→57	35→40	57→60	47	217/301/275	58	294	2	26	25%	8%	69	-0.9	233/296/303	70	299	3	24	21%	7%	72	-0.7	259/320/356	97	321	5	23	20%	7%	91	+0.4
✕Luis Valdez 2022 · A	22	46→52	37→40	58→70	44	217/282/292	75	299	4	26	27%	7%	65	-1.2	210/262/273	63	318	3	44	32%	6%	52	-2.2	201/253/258	56	307	3	56	33%	6%	43	-1.5
✕Emmanuel Burriss 2008 · A	23	51→56	34→40	59→60	45	238/282/289	51	286	1	34	17%	5%	63	-1.4	249/300/302	53	289	2	26	14%	6%	73	-0.6	261/312/306	45	298	1	25	12%	6%	77	-0.2
✕Chris Garia 2015 · A	22	49→55	38→40	62→60	38	231/273/312	81	313	5	30	27%	4%	65	-1.2	224/264/336	112	293	9	24	26%	5%	68	-1.0	217/254/345	127	276	10	27	25%	4%	62	-0.7
✕Johan Rojas 2023 · AA	22	44→54	41→45	63→65	42	216/263/320	104	271	8	35	23%	5%	63	-1.3	248/290/352	104	312	8	37	22%	5%	81	-0.1	260/302/359	100	326	7	41	21%	5%	85	+0.2
✕Cole Tucker 2018 · AA	22	49→51	39→45	57→55	44	230/286/323	92	310	5	24	26%	7%	72	-0.7	229/287/333	104	299	7	20	24%	7%	76	-0.4	228/286/332	104	292	8	18	23%	7%	73	-0.4
✕Jose Vallejo 2009 · AA	22	52→56	39→40	58→55	42	248/289/330	82	311	6	24	22%	5%	75	-0.5	220/260/291	71	295	5	14	26%	5%	55	-1.9	199/237/247	48	274	3	8	27%	5%	34	-1.5
✕Pedro Toribio 2012 · A	22	43	38→40	63→60	47	201/252/288	86	235	4	27	16%	6%	52	-2.2	236/266/309	73	293	2	23	19%	4%	61	-1.5	267/287/325	58	333	0	29	19%	2%	68	-0.4
✕Tony Campana 2009 · A	23	45→55	35→30	58→70	43	214/263/269	55	282	3	28	24%	6%	51	-2.2	259/300/306	47	335	1	40	21%	5%	73	-0.6	277/319/328	50	356	1	56	21%	5%	83	+0.0
✕Luis Durango 2024 · A	21	47	35→30	57→70	48	219/296/278	59	287	3	29	23%	8%	68	-1.0	227/289/285	58	305	2	36	24%	5%	65	-1.2	249/303/294	44	325	0	54	21%	4%	68	-0.3
✕Mario Holmann 2006 · A	22	49	34→30	57→60	47	227/292/278	51	298	2	30	23%	8%	65	-1.2	210/290/262	52	286	2	24	25%	10%	61	-1.5	193/284/220	27	267	0	28	25%	11%	48	-1.3
✕Adenson Chourio 2008 · A	22	46	34→30	56→60	54	209/294/256	47	251	1	31	16%	9%	62	-1.4	221/281/258	37	293	1	26	23%	7%	56	-1.9	218/268/238	20	302	0	28	26%	5%	44	-1.2
✕Jacob May 2015 · A	23	49→56	40	59→60	44	232/280/336	104	295	6	26	23%	6%	73	-0.6	238/279/314	76	317	3	29	25%	5%	68	-1.0	238/278/301	63	325	3	33	26%	4%	61	-1.1
✕Derrick Robinson 2010 · A	22	46→53	36→40	60→65	41	217/257/284	67	285	3	39	24%	5%	52	-2.2	230/274/290	60	296	2	37	22%	6%	60	-1.6	238/291/278	40	307	1	22	21%	7%	62	-0.9
✕Wes Rogers 2016 · A	22	47→51	39→40	65	44	225/283/314	88	297	6	35	25%	6%	70	-0.9	223/278/313	90	298	6	34	25%	6%	68	-1.0	218/272/304	87	291	6	36	26%	6%	61	-1.2

Adrian Santana

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps