Rafael Sanchez
P
New Hampshire Fisher Cats
Age 26
RHP
6'1" / 215 lbs
AA
peak 0.7 · 2026
2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 70 proj IP
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 131121vR 112
ERA4.94
FIP4.94
K%13.8%
BB%8.9%
K-BB%4.9%
ROS IP70
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 70 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 14 | 13 | 59 | 251 | 60 | 16 | 2 | 93% | 4.2 | 16.2% | 7.5% | 8.8% | 0.8% | 3.20 | 3.11 | — |
| 2022 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 14 | 13 | 59 | 251 | 60 | 16 | 2 | 93% | 4.2 | 23.9% | 6.4% | 17.5% | 0.8% | 3.20 | 2.32 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 23 | 114 | 481 | 119 | 28 | 13 | 100% | 5.0 | 18.8% | 6.7% | 12.1% | 2.2% | 4.26 | 3.60 | — |
| 2023 | 23 | MIX | 2 levels | 23 | 23 | 114 | 481 | 119 | 28 | 13 | 100% | 5.0 | 24.7% | 5.8% | 18.9% | 2.7% | 4.26 | 3.23 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 20 | 19 | 106 | 453 | 107 | 32 | 7 | 95% | 5.3 | 18.3% | 8.0% | 10.3% | 1.6% | 3.64 | 3.45 | — |
| 2024 | 24 | MIX | 2 levels | 20 | 19 | 106 | 453 | 107 | 32 | 7 | 95% | 5.3 | 23.6% | 7.1% | 16.6% | 1.5% | 3.64 | 2.85 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | 25 | 19 | 91 | 410 | 71 | 31 | 7 | 76% | 3.6 | 14.0% | 8.3% | 5.7% | 2.7% | 5.54 | 4.43 | — |
| 2025 | 25 | AA | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | 25 | 19 | 91 | 410 | 71 | 31 | 7 | 76% | 3.6 | 17.3% | 7.6% | 9.8% | 1.7% | 5.54 | 3.56 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | TOR | 12 | 12 | 70 | 296 | 41 | 26 | 8 | 100% | 5.8 | 13.8% | 8.9% | 4.9% | 2.7% | 4.94 | 4.94 | -0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | TOR | 12 | 12 | 69 | 291 | 43 | 26 | 8 | 100% | 5.8 | 14.7% | 9.0% | 5.7% | 2.8% | 4.90 | 4.91 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | TOR | 11 | 11 | 67 | 282 | 43 | 26 | 8 | 100% | 6.1 | 15.3% | 9.2% | 6.1% | 2.9% | 4.92 | 4.95 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | TOR | 11 | 11 | 64 | 270 | 42 | 25 | 8 | 100% | 5.8 | 15.4% | 9.4% | 6.0% | 3.1% | 4.99 | 5.05 | -0.3 |
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | TOR | 4 | 4 | 26 | 110 | 16 | 10 | 3 | 100% | 6.5 | 14.7% | 9.0% | 5.7% | 2.8% | 4.90 | 4.91 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | TOR | 7 | 7 | 40 | 169 | 26 | 15 | 5 | 100% | 5.7 | 15.3% | 9.2% | 6.1% | 2.9% | 4.92 | 4.95 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | TOR | 8 | 8 | 45 | 190 | 29 | 18 | 6 | 100% | 5.6 | 15.4% | 9.4% | 6.0% | 3.1% | 4.99 | 5.05 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 18 | 18 | 111 | 468 | 71 | 43 | 14 | 100% | 6.2 | 15.2% | 9.2% | 6.0% | 3.0% | 4.94 | 4.60 | +1.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 33 | 33 | 200 | 844 | 128 | 78 | 25 | 100% | 6.0 | 15.2% | 9.2% | 6.0% | 3.0% | 4.94 | 4.60 | +1.9 | ||
| Career | — | 82 | 74 | 370 | 1595 | 272 | 122 | 31 | 90% | 4.5 | 17.0% | 7.6% | 9.4% | 1.9% | 4.23 | 3.69 | +7.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 44 | 40 | 200 | 861 | 147 | 66 | 17 | 90% | 4.5 | 17.0% | 7.6% | 9.4% | 1.9% | 4.23 | 3.69 | +4.0 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Rafael Sanchez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.94 | 13.8% | 8.9% | 2.7% | — | 4.97 | 15.1% | 5.9% | 200 | +0.03 | — | — | — |
| Luke Irvine R 2027 · 4.17 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.17 | 13.4% | 9.8% | 1.8% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.17 | 104 | 84 |
| Allen Webster R 2025 · 4.99 FIP | 25 | SP | 4.99 | 14.0% | 9.1% | 3.5% | .356 | 5.50 | 14.9% | 6.8% | 58 | +0.51 | 4.43 | 177 | 82 |
| Jake Walters R 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.17 | 17.0% | 9.4% | 2.4% | .316 | 5.97 | 15.5% | -0.2% | 72 | +1.80 | 3.46 | 261 | 82 |
| Andrew Quezada R 2026 · 5.25 FIP | 26 | SP- | 5.25 | 14.4% | 9.5% | 4.0% | .344 | 5.06 | 12.9% | 4.7% | 173 | -0.19 | 4.25 | 412 | 81 |
| Alejandro Martinez R 2026 · 4.24 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.24 | 17.5% | 10.9% | 2.3% | .393 | 4.44 | 9.2% | 3.9% | 53 | +0.20 | 4.24 | 166 | 81 |
| Jordan Cooper R 2026 · 5.05 FIP | 26 | SP | 5.05 | 9.2% | 10.2% | 2.6% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 5.05 | 106 | 80 |
| Shane Greene R 2026 · 4.60 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.60 | 13.0% | 6.6% | 3.2% | .309 | 3.67 | 24.1% | 15.6% | 191 | -0.93 | 2.90 | 484 | 80 |
| Nestor Molina R 2027 · 5.13 FIP | 27 | SP | 5.13 | 15.0% | 8.0% | 4.2% | .304 | 3.57 | 17.0% | 10.2% | 289 | -1.56 | 3.07 | 401 | 80 |
| Hector Velázquez R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 26 | SP | 4.23 | 15.0% | 8.7% | 2.4% | .297 | 3.33 | 18.1% | 12.8% | 343 | -0.90 | 2.82 | 536 | 80 |
| Andres Ivan Meza R 2028 · 4.37 FIP | 28 | SP | 4.37 | 10.9% | 5.6% | 2.7% | .322 | 4.25 | 12.5% | 4.0% | 85 | -0.12 | 4.25 | 275 | 80 |
| Braydon Tucker R 2026 · 3.80 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.80 | 13.8% | 8.8% | 1.4% | .268 | 4.76 | 16.8% | 6.5% | 78 | +0.96 | 3.24 | 289 | 80 |
| Frank Batista R 2026 · 4.33 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.33 | 12.1% | 8.2% | 2.2% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.33 | 118 | 80 |
| Jair Jurrjens R 2029 · 4.46 FIP | 29 | SP- | 4.46 | 10.3% | 6.9% | 2.5% | .365 | 4.29 | 16.3% | 8.4% | 54 | -0.17 | 4.29 | 125 | 80 |
| Elliot Morris R 2023 · 4.46 FIP | 23 | SP | 4.46 | 12.8% | 10.4% | 2.1% | .320 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.46 | 102 | 79 |
| Braden Olthoff R 2023 · 4.57 FIP | 23 | SP- | 4.57 | 12.5% | 8.0% | 2.8% | .280 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.57 | 108 | 79 |
| Brannon Easterling R 2026 · 4.25 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.25 | 12.7% | 8.2% | 2.1% | .322 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.51 | 334 | 78 |
| Hector Noesí R 2028 · 4.21 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.21 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 2.9% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.21 | 250 | 78 |
| Fredy Quintero R 2027 · 4.23 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.23 | 11.3% | 8.9% | 1.8% | .375 | 4.59 | 15.1% | 7.3% | 113 | +0.36 | 4.23 | 241 | 78 |
| Caleb Clay R 2027 · 4.63 FIP | 27 | SP | 4.63 | 9.9% | 6.9% | 2.7% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.63 | 111 | 78 |
| Patrick McGuff R 2024 · 4.22 FIP | 24 | SP | 4.22 | 12.0% | 10.4% | 1.5% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.81 | 133 | 78 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 67 | 14.8% | 9.1% | 1.11 | 4.94 |
| Joe Biagini ('19) | 4 | 81 | 19.1% | 7.8% | 1.28 | 4.86 |
| Vance Worley ('17) | 3 | 77 | 15.4% | 8.5% | 1.02 | 4.73 |
| Josh Winckowski ('24) | 3 | 77 | 18.3% | 8.2% | 1.13 | 4.21 |
| Robert Gsellman ('21) | 5 | 67 | 18.4% | 7.8% | 0.96 | 4.38 |
| JC Ramírez ('17) | 3 | 83 | 17.0% | 7.7% | 1.30 | 4.33 |
| Adam Conley ('19) | 5 | 83 | 19.7% | 9.5% | 1.17 | 4.82 |