Rafael Sanchez
P
New Hampshire Fisher Cats
+0.6
WAR
Age 26
RHP
6'1" / 215 lbs
AA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034
peak 1.0 · 2027
ERA4.48
FIP4.48
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%18.1%
BB%8.5%
K-BB%9.6%
IP98
trajectory · 10 yrs
1.0peak
2027
K†4545
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 22 | A | Dunedin Blue Jays | 14 | 13 | 59 | 251 | 60 | 16 | 2 | 16.2% | 7.5% | 0.7% | 3.20 | 3.08 | +1.3 |
| 2023 | 23 | A+ | Vancouver Canadians | 23 | 23 | 114 | 481 | 119 | 28 | 13 | 18.8% | 6.7% | 2.7% | 4.26 | 3.83 | +1.9 |
| 2024 | 24 | AA | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | 20 | 19 | 106 | 453 | 107 | 32 | 7 | 18.3% | 8.0% | 1.7% | 3.64 | 3.51 | +2.2 |
| 2025 | 25 | AA | New Hampshire Fisher Cats | 25 | 19 | 91 | 410 | 71 | 31 | 7 | 14.0% | 8.3% | 2.3% | 5.54 | 4.22 | +1.0 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 26 | MLB | TOR | 18 | 18 | 98 | 413 | 75 | 35 | 11 | 18.1% | 8.5% | 2.6% | 4.48 | 4.48 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 27 | MLB | TOR | 18 | 18 | 101 | 427 | 79 | 36 | 11 | 18.6% | 8.5% | 2.7% | 4.46 | 4.46 | +1.0 |
| 2028 | 28 | MLB | TOR | 18 | 18 | 102 | 429 | 81 | 36 | 12 | 18.8% | 8.5% | 2.7% | 4.46 | 4.47 | +1.0 |
| 2029 | 29 | MLB | TOR | 18 | 18 | 99 | 420 | 79 | 36 | 12 | 18.8% | 8.5% | 2.8% | 4.48 | 4.51 | +0.9 |
| 2030 | 30 | MLB | TOR | 18 | 18 | 96 | 407 | 76 | 35 | 12 | 18.7% | 8.6% | 2.9% | 4.52 | 4.56 | +0.8 |
| 2031 | 31 | MLB | TOR | 17 | 17 | 93 | 393 | 72 | 34 | 12 | 18.4% | 8.7% | 2.9% | 4.59 | 4.64 | +0.6 |
| 2032 | 32 | MLB | TOR | 16 | 16 | 89 | 377 | 69 | 33 | 11 | 18.2% | 8.8% | 3.0% | 4.67 | 4.72 | +0.5 |
| 2033 | 33 | MLB | TOR | 16 | 16 | 85 | 360 | 64 | 32 | 11 | 17.9% | 9.0% | 3.1% | 4.76 | 4.82 | +0.3 |
| 2034 | 34 | MLB | TOR | 15 | 15 | 81 | 342 | 60 | 32 | 11 | 17.5% | 9.2% | 3.2% | 4.86 | 4.93 | +0.2 |
| 2035 | 35 | MLB | TOR | 14 | 14 | 76 | 322 | 62 | 28 | 11 | 19.1% | 8.6% | 3.3% | 4.81 | 4.78 | +0.3 |
| 2036 | 36 | MLB | TOR | 13 | 13 | 71 | 301 | 56 | 27 | 10 | 18.7% | 8.9% | 3.4% | 4.87 | 4.91 | +0.1 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 82 | 74 | 370 | 1595 | 272 | 122 | 32 | 17.0% | 7.6% | 2.0% | 4.23 | 3.72 | +6.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 44 | 40 | 200 | 861 | 147 | 66 | 17 | 17.0% | 7.6% | 2.0% | 4.23 | 3.72 | +3.6 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Rafael Sanchez (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.48 | 18.1% | 8.5% | 2.6% | — | 4.48 | 18.7% | 10.2% | 302 | -0.00 | — | — | — |
| Tim Atherton R 2025 · 3.77 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.77 | 16.2% | 8.6% | 1.7% | .291 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.77 | 101 | 92 |
| Roberto Gómez R 2027 · 3.98 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.98 | 18.4% | 8.9% | 2.4% | .315 | 5.24 | 13.8% | 4.9% | 18 | +1.26 | 3.98 | 115 | 92 |
| Aaron Northcraft R 2026 · 4.23 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.23 | 16.1% | 8.3% | 2.6% | .309 | 3.32 | 24.1% | 13.4% | 34 | -0.91 | 3.32 | 252 | 91 |
| Nestor Molina R 2027 · 4.81 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.81 | 15.0% | 8.0% | 3.6% | .304 | 3.61 | 17.0% | 10.2% | 289 | -1.20 | 3.03 | 401 | 90 |
| Hector Velázquez R 2026 · 4.31 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.31 | 15.0% | 8.7% | 2.5% | .297 | 3.37 | 18.1% | 12.8% | 343 | -0.94 | 2.78 | 536 | 89 |
| Josh Roeder R 2026 · 4.72 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.72 | 15.1% | 8.7% | 3.3% | .264 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.72 | 175 | 89 |
| Sam Highfill R 2024 · 4.80 FIP | 24 | SP- | 4.80 | 15.0% | 8.6% | 3.4% | .305 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.80 | 106 | 88 |
| Luke Irvine R 2027 · 4.31 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.31 | 13.4% | 9.8% | 2.0% | .302 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.31 | 104 | 88 |
| Brooks Hall R 2026 · 4.34 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.34 | 14.2% | 6.7% | 2.9% | .284 | 3.45 | 13.6% | 6.2% | 55 | -0.89 | 3.45 | 274 | 88 |
| Marco Antonio Duarte R 2028 · 4.06 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.06 | 15.5% | 9.1% | 2.0% | .306 | 4.65 | 9.0% | -1.2% | 38 | +0.59 | 4.06 | 203 | 88 |
| Jared Mortensen R 2027 · 4.42 FIP | 27 | SP- | 4.42 | 16.9% | 7.8% | 3.2% | .287 | 5.02 | 20.9% | 2.1% | 72 | +0.60 | 4.42 | 200 | 88 |
| Wily Peralta R 2026 · 4.66 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.66 | 12.6% | 7.3% | 3.1% | .314 | 4.44 | 18.5% | 8.4% | 312 | -0.22 | 3.99 | 748 | 88 |
| Hector Noesí R 2028 · 4.38 FIP | 28 | SP- | 4.38 | 17.6% | 8.1% | 3.2% | .261 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.38 | 250 | 87 |
| Braydon Tucker R 2026 · 3.82 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.82 | 13.8% | 8.8% | 1.4% | .268 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.24 | 211 | 87 |
| Alex Wimmers R 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 26 | SP- | 3.68 | 16.6% | 9.7% | 1.4% | .324 | 3.69 | 21.5% | 12.1% | 114 | +0.01 | 3.62 | 230 | 86 |
| Justin De Fratus R 2027 · 3.80 FIP | 27 | SP- | 3.80 | 18.8% | 8.3% | 2.3% | .325 | 4.62 | 12.4% | 6.9% | 279 | +0.82 | 3.80 | 500 | 86 |
| Kyle Haynes R 2025 · 4.58 FIP | 25 | SP- | 4.58 | 15.7% | 9.9% | 2.8% | .324 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.06 | 240 | 86 |
| Dustin Beggs R 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.37 | 15.6% | 7.4% | 3.0% | .329 | 5.09 | 11.3% | 3.6% | 48 | +0.72 | 3.42 | 407 | 86 |
| Shane Greene R 2026 · 4.54 FIP | 26 | SP- | 4.54 | 13.0% | 6.6% | 3.1% | .309 | 3.56 | 24.1% | 15.6% | 191 | -0.98 | 2.84 | 484 | 86 |
| Ryan Tapani R 2025 · 3.85 FIP | 25 | SP- | 3.85 | 19.0% | 7.3% | 2.6% | .331 | 5.58 | 20.8% | 10.6% | 47 | +1.73 | 3.85 | 141 | 86 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2029
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2034
First FA Year 2035
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2028 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2029 | |||
| 2029 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.9 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2030 | Pre-Arb | $0.9M | +0.8 | $4M | +$3M |
| 2031 | Pre-Arb | $0.9M | +0.6 | $3M | +$2M |
| 2032 | Arb-1 | $0.6M | +0.5 | $2M | +$2M |
| 2033 | Arb-2 | $0.7M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.8M |
| 2034 | Arb-3 | $7M | +0.2 | $1M | +$0.0M (cut) |
| Totals | $5M | $15M | +$10M | ||