Rafael Sanchez — OGILVIE

Rafael Sanchez P New Hampshire Fisher Cats

Age 26 RHP 6'1" / 215 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 0.9 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION0 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 110

ERA4.88

FIP4.88

K%13.8%

BB%8.7%

K-BB%5.1%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 6 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$2M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF3535

CTRL5555

CMD4040

K†3030

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	—	—	—
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.9M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	14	13	59	251	60	16	2	93%	4.2	16.2%	7.5%	8.8%	0.7%	3.20	3.06	—
2022	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	14	13	59	251	60	16	2	93%	4.2	23.9%	6.4%	17.5%	0.8%	3.20	2.32	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	114	481	119	28	13	100%	5.0	18.8%	6.7%	12.1%	2.7%	4.26	3.85	—
2023	23	MIX MLE	2 levels	23	23	114	481	119	28	13	100%	5.0	18.8%	6.7%	12.1%	2.7%	4.26	3.85	—
2023	23	MIX RAW	2 levels	23	23	114	481	119	28	13	100%	5.0	24.7%	5.8%	18.9%	2.7%	4.26	3.23	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	19	106	453	107	32	7	95%	5.3	18.3%	8.0%	10.3%	1.7%	3.64	3.52	—
2024	24	MIX MLE	2 levels	20	19	106	453	107	32	7	95%	5.3	18.3%	8.0%	10.3%	1.7%	3.64	3.52	—
2024	24	MIX RAW	2 levels	20	19	106	453	107	32	7	95%	5.3	23.6%	7.1%	16.6%	1.5%	3.64	2.85	—
2025	25	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	25	19	91	410	71	31	7	76%	3.6	14.0%	8.3%	5.7%	2.3%	5.54	4.24	—
2025	25	AA MLE	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	25	19	91	410	71	31	7	76%	3.6	14.0%	8.3%	5.7%	2.3%	5.54	4.24	—
2025	25	AA RAW	New Hampshire Fisher Cats	25	19	91	410	71	31	7	76%	3.6	17.3%	7.6%	9.8%	1.7%	5.54	3.56	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	26	MLB	TOR	1	1	6	25	3	2	1	100%	6.0	13.8%	8.7%	5.1%	2.7%	4.88	4.88	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	27	MLB MLE	TOR	16	16	94	398	58	35	11	100%	5.9	14.6%	8.7%	5.9%	2.7%	4.84	4.85	+0.1
2028	28	MLB MLE	TOR	15	15	92	386	58	34	11	100%	6.1	15.0%	8.8%	6.3%	2.9%	4.85	4.89	+0.0
2029	29	MLB MLE	TOR	15	15	87	369	56	33	11	100%	5.8	15.1%	8.9%	6.2%	3.0%	4.92	4.99	-0.1
2030	30	MLB MLE	TOR	14	14	82	347	52	32	11	100%	5.9	15.0%	9.2%	5.8%	3.2%	5.05	5.15	-0.2
2027	27	MLB CTX	TOR	6	6	35	148	22	13	4	100%	5.8	14.6%	8.7%	5.9%	2.7%	4.84	4.85	+0.0
2028	28	MLB CTX	TOR	9	9	54	228	34	20	7	100%	6.0	15.0%	8.8%	6.3%	2.9%	4.85	4.89	+0.0
2029	29	MLB CTX	TOR	10	10	62	262	40	23	8	100%	6.2	15.1%	8.9%	6.2%	3.0%	4.92	4.99	-0.1
2030	30	MLB CTX	TOR	11	11	64	270	40	25	9	100%	5.8	15.0%	9.2%	5.8%	3.2%	5.05	5.15	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		36	36	216	913	137	81	27	100%	6.0	15.0%	8.9%	6.1%	3.0%	4.93	4.61	+0.7
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		33	33	200	844	127	75	25	100%	6.0	15.0%	8.9%	6.1%	3.0%	4.93	4.61	+0.7
Career	—	MLE		82	74	370	1595	272	122	32	90%	4.5	17.0%	7.6%	9.4%	2.0%	4.23	3.73	-0.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		44	40	200	861	147	66	17	90%	4.5	17.0%	7.6%	9.4%	2.0%	4.23	3.73	-0.1

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Rafael Sanchez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.88	13.8%	8.7%	2.7%	—	4.91	14.9%	6.1%	273	+0.03	—	—	—
Luke Irvine R 2016 · 4.31 FIP	27	SP-	4.31	13.4%	9.8%	2.0%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	4.31	104	84
Bradley Brehmer R 2023 · 4.43 FIP	23	SP	4.43	14.6%	9.5%	2.5%	.349	3.27	20.0%	11.5%	94	-1.16	2.83	165	84
Nestor Molina R 2016 · 4.83 FIP	27	SP	4.83	15.0%	8.0%	3.6%	.304	3.61	17.0%	10.2%	289	-1.22	3.01	401	82
Jake Walters R 2022 · 4.03 FIP	26	SP-	4.03	17.0%	9.4%	2.1%	.316	5.89	14.8%	0.9%	72	+1.86	3.51	261	81
Cameron Foster R 2023 · 4.31 FIP	24	SP	4.31	18.9%	10.3%	2.7%	.329	4.05	20.9%	10.9%	132	-0.26	2.54	213	81
Allen Webster R 2015 · 5.05 FIP	25	SP	5.05	14.0%	9.1%	3.6%	.356	5.78	14.9%	6.8%	58	+0.73	4.56	177	81
Shane Greene R 2015 · 4.50 FIP	26	SP	4.50	13.0%	6.6%	3.0%	.309	3.60	24.1%	15.6%	191	-0.90	2.86	484	81
Alejandro Martinez R 2015 · 4.46 FIP	26	SP-	4.46	17.5%	10.9%	2.7%	.393	4.24	9.2%	3.9%	53	-0.22	4.24	166	81
Hector Velázquez R 2015 · 4.31 FIP	26	SP	4.31	15.0%	8.7%	2.5%	.297	3.35	18.1%	12.8%	343	-0.96	2.75	536	80
Andres Ivan Meza R 2015 · 4.45 FIP	28	SP	4.45	10.9%	5.6%	2.9%	.322	4.14	12.5%	4.0%	85	-0.31	4.14	275	80
Jordan Cooper R 2015 · 5.01 FIP	26	SP	5.01	9.2%	10.2%	2.5%	.305	—	—	—	—	—	5.01	106	80
Andrew Quezada R 2023 · 5.33 FIP	26	SP-	5.33	14.4%	9.5%	4.1%	.344	4.92	12.5%	5.0%	173	-0.41	4.40	412	80
Jair Jurrjens R 2015 · 4.59 FIP	29	SP-	4.59	10.3%	6.9%	2.7%	.365	4.27	16.3%	8.4%	54	-0.32	4.27	125	80
Frank Batista R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	26	SP-	4.29	12.1%	8.2%	2.1%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	4.29	118	80
Marcelo Perez R 2023 · 3.84 FIP	23	SP	3.84	18.0%	8.6%	2.1%	.288	4.99	14.7%	7.3%	238	+1.15	3.84	306	79
Fredy Quintero R 2015 · 4.55 FIP	27	SP-	4.55	11.3%	8.9%	2.3%	.375	4.38	15.1%	7.3%	113	-0.17	4.29	241	79
Braden Olthoff R 2022 · 4.50 FIP	23	SP-	4.50	12.5%	8.0%	2.6%	.280	—	—	—	—	—	4.50	108	79
Connor Noland R 2023 · 3.98 FIP	24	SP	3.98	14.8%	5.7%	2.6%	.290	4.32	15.8%	8.2%	335	+0.34	3.98	443	79
Elliot Morris R 2015 · 4.32 FIP	23	SP	4.32	12.8%	10.4%	1.8%	.320	—	—	—	—	—	4.32	102	79
Brannon Easterling R 2017 · 4.40 FIP	26	SP-	4.40	12.7%	8.2%	2.4%	.322	—	—	—	—	—	3.50	334	79

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	2.1	85	14.7%	8.8%	1.12	4.91
Luis Perdomo ('22)	2.3	90	16.6%	7.8%	1.08	5.09
Sal Romano ('21)	1.3	86	17.0%	8.8%	1.29	5.10
Josh Fleming ('24)	1.3	51	14.6%	7.5%	1.17	4.77
Ty Blach ('24)	2.5	84	12.8%	6.9%	1.23	5.56
Chi Chi González ('22)	1.3	64	13.3%	9.0%	1.41	5.44
Andrew Suárez ('23)	1.1	74	18.2%	7.8%	1.51	5.02