Neiver Acosta prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Neiver Acosta P DSL CLE Goryl

Age 23 RHP 6'1" / 184 lbs ROK

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 10 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 128120vR 112

ERA5.00

FIP5.00

K%22.9%

BB%14.3%

K-BB%8.6%

ROS IP10

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 10 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	19	ROK MLE	DSL CLE Blue	18	0	22	100	31	17	0	0%	1.2	21.1%	21.3%	-0.2%	0.0%	4.43	4.01	—
2022	19	ROK RAW	DSL CLE Blue	18	0	22	100	31	17	0	0%	1.2	31.0%	17.0%	14.0%	0.0%	4.43	2.61	—
2023	20	ROK MLE	DSL Guardians Red	15	0	18	99	23	23	3	0%	1.2	15.8%	29.0%	-13.2%	1.8%	14.77	6.41	—
2023	20	ROK MLE	DSL Guardians Red	15	0	18	99	23	23	3	0%	1.2	15.8%	29.0%	-13.2%	1.8%	14.77	6.41	—
2023	20	ROK RAW	DSL Guardians Red	15	0	18	99	23	23	3	0%	1.2	23.2%	23.2%	0.0%	3.0%	14.77	6.61	—
2024	21	ROK MLE	DSL CLE Goryl	2	0	0	9	0	8	0	0%	—	0.0%	88.9%	-88.9%	0.0%	—	14.36	—
2024	21	ROK MLE	DSL CLE Goryl	2	0	0	9	0	8	0	0%	—	0.0%	88.9%	-88.9%	0.0%	—	14.36	—
2024	21	ROK RAW	DSL CLE Goryl	2	0	0	9	0	8	0	0%	—	0.0%	88.9%	-88.9%	0.0%	—	—	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	23	MLB	PIT	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	22.9%	14.3%	8.6%	3.0%	5.00	5.00	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	PIT	19	0	20	84	20	11	3	0%	1.1	23.5%	12.6%	10.9%	3.0%	4.80	4.72	-0.0
2027	24	MLB CTX	PIT	9	0	9	38	9	5	1	0%	1.0	23.5%	12.6%	10.9%	3.0%	4.80	4.72	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		8	0	9	36	8	5	1	0%	1.1	23.5%	12.6%	10.9%	3.0%	4.80	4.34	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	187	117	23	0%	1.1	23.5%	12.6%	10.9%	3.0%	4.80	4.34	+0.5
Career	—	MLE		33	0	40	199	37	50	2	0%	1.2	18.5%	25.1%	-6.7%	0.9%	9.00	5.21	-0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		165	0	200	995	184	250	9	0%	1.2	18.5%	25.1%	-6.7%	0.9%	9.00	5.21	-0.4

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Neiver Acosta (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.00	22.9%	14.3%	3.0%	—	4.72	23.5%	10.9%	20	-0.28	—	—	—
Kasey Ford R 2021 · 4.89 FIP	23	SU	4.89	20.3%	14.5%	3.0%	.310	4.26	21.9%	5.8%	98	-0.63	2.53	114	92
Easton Sikorski R 2023 · 4.85 FIP	23	SU	4.85	20.9%	14.1%	3.1%	.254	4.62	17.5%	6.3%	154	-0.23	4.23	183	88
Brandyn Sittinger R 2017 · 4.37 FIP	23	SU	4.37	22.2%	13.8%	2.5%	.324	3.97	21.2%	7.2%	72	-0.40	3.58	152	87
Colin McKee R 2018 · 5.00 FIP	24	SU	5.00	24.2%	14.7%	3.8%	.330	4.35	27.7%	12.9%	97	-0.65	4.18	148	87
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.18	22.3%	9.0%	119	-0.38	2.12	165	87
Cole Gordon R 2019 · 4.09 FIP	23	SU	4.09	22.0%	12.7%	2.3%	.243	5.19	20.9%	9.5%	83	+1.10	4.09	112	87
Chris Perez R 2008 · 4.22 FIP	23	SU	4.22	23.7%	12.4%	2.8%	.269	3.71	22.5%	12.6%	180	-0.51	3.18	379	86
Morgan McSweeney R 2021 · 5.36 FIP	23	SU	5.36	21.9%	16.3%	3.7%	.295	5.15	18.5%	5.3%	93	-0.21	3.20	213	86
Maikel Cleto R 2014 · 4.24 FIP	25	SU	4.24	23.2%	15.2%	2.1%	.256	3.45	25.4%	14.5%	106	-0.79	2.59	185	86
Logan VanWey R 2023 · 4.34 FIP	24	SU	4.34	23.9%	14.0%	2.7%	.301	3.74	25.9%	15.2%	147	-0.60	2.97	194	86
Craig Schlitter R 2016 · 4.53 FIP	24	SU	4.53	22.7%	15.4%	2.5%	.298	4.67	14.7%	4.2%	171	+0.14	4.25	222	86
Todd Wellemeyer R 2003 · 5.14 FIP	24	SU	5.14	24.6%	14.8%	4.1%	.290	4.56	18.9%	4.8%	135	-0.58	3.35	615	85
Luis Ramirez R 2015 · 4.68 FIP	23	SU	4.68	23.1%	15.9%	2.8%	.278	3.71	24.0%	11.4%	53	-0.97	3.71	104	85
Hunter Dula R 2022 · 3.91 FIP	23	SU	3.91	22.0%	12.3%	2.0%	.340	4.54	20.0%	8.9%	91	+0.63	3.91	132	85
Michael Wuertz R 2004 · 4.46 FIP	25	SU	4.46	24.2%	12.9%	3.2%	.243	3.39	26.1%	16.6%	189	-1.07	2.27	414	84
Francisco Del Rosario R 2006 · 5.13 FIP	25	SU	5.13	19.4%	13.0%	3.7%	.290	3.93	19.7%	10.3%	26	-1.20	3.93	194	84
David Ellingson R 2018 · 4.15 FIP	23	SU	4.15	20.5%	14.6%	1.7%	.362	3.52	18.0%	10.2%	105	-0.63	3.43	150	84
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	84
Tanner Jacobson R 2023 · 4.09 FIP	23	SU	4.09	22.8%	13.8%	2.1%	.313	4.89	21.1%	5.4%	115	+0.80	4.09	168	84
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	84