Landry Jurecka — OGILVIE

Landry Jurecka P ACL Padres

Age 23 RHP 6'2" / 205 lbs ROK peak 0.2 · 2027

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 17 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 114105vR 97

ERA4.23

FIP4.23

K%23.0%

BB%8.3%

K-BB%14.7%

ROS IP17

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 17 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	22	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	6	0	9	43	7	3	0	0%	1.6	16.3%	7.0%	9.3%	0.0%	6.75	2.61	—
2025	22	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	6	0	9	43	7	3	0	0%	1.6	16.3%	7.0%	9.3%	0.0%	6.75	2.61	—
2025	22	A RAW	Lake Elsinore Storm	6	0	9	43	7	3	0	0%	1.6	16.3%	7.0%	9.3%	0.0%	6.75	2.56	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	AA MLE	San Antonio Missions	17	1	33	148	39	11	4	6%	2.0	17.3%	5.9%	11.4%	1.3%	6.75	3.11	—
YTD	23	AA MLE	San Antonio Missions	17	1	33	148	39	11	4	6%	2.0	17.3%	5.9%	11.4%	1.3%	6.75	3.11	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	ROK RAW	SD	13	0	24	106	27	5	1	0%	1.9	25.5%	4.7%	20.8%	0.9%	5.92	2.06	—
2026	23	A RAW	SD	3	1	6	30	9	5	3	33%	2.0	30.0%	16.7%	13.3%	10.0%	12.00	8.17	—
2026	23	AA RAW	SD	1	0	3	12	3	1	0	0%	3.0	25.0%	8.3%	16.7%	0.0%	3.00	2.04	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	SD	32	0	33	141	33	12	4	0%	1.0	23.6%	8.2%	15.4%	3.0%	4.19	4.15	+0.2
2027	24	MLB CTX	SD	13	0	14	59	14	5	2	0%	1.1	23.6%	8.2%	15.4%	3.0%	4.19	4.15	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		14	0	14	60	14	5	2	0%	1.0	23.6%	8.2%	15.4%	3.0%	4.19	3.77	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	196	70	28	0%	1.1	23.6%	8.2%	15.4%	3.0%	4.19	3.77	+1.9
Career	—	MLE		23	1	43	191	33	12	2	4%	1.9	17.1%	6.1%	10.9%	1.0%	6.75	3.00	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		108	5	200	895	153	55	9	4%	1.9	17.1%	6.1%	10.9%	1.0%	6.75	3.00	+0.9

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Landry Jurecka (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.23	23.0%	8.3%	3.0%	—	4.15	23.6%	15.4%	33	-0.08	—	—	—
Michael Gomez R 2019 · 3.32 FIP	22	SU	3.32	22.6%	9.2%	1.8%	.283	3.81	17.9%	8.3%	110	+0.49	3.32	286	88
Tyler Bray R 2015 · 4.07 FIP	23	SU	4.07	22.3%	9.1%	3.1%	.356	3.21	17.9%	7.6%	114	-0.86	2.82	152	87
Kevin Coulter R 2019 · 3.27 FIP	22	SU	3.27	21.0%	7.4%	1.8%	.287	4.51	16.1%	7.6%	92	+1.24	3.27	128	87
Heath Holder R 2016 · 4.16 FIP	23	SU	4.16	21.1%	10.1%	2.8%	.287	3.30	22.3%	13.1%	247	-0.86	2.94	367	87
Reilly Hovis R 2017 · 4.28 FIP	23	SU	4.28	21.1%	7.7%	3.6%	.250	4.36	19.8%	6.4%	50	+0.08	4.28	130	86
Devon Roedahl R 2019 · 3.94 FIP	22	SU	3.94	19.7%	6.7%	3.0%	.305	4.64	16.5%	9.2%	100	+0.70	3.94	122	86
Nolan Clenney R 2021 · 3.73 FIP	25	SU	3.73	25.5%	8.4%	3.1%	.340	4.36	22.2%	13.5%	185	+0.63	3.73	223	85
Jake Bray R 2016 · 3.28 FIP	23	SU	3.28	21.1%	7.7%	1.8%	.245	4.56	21.4%	10.8%	158	+1.28	2.51	198	85
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	85
Josh Advocate R 2018 · 3.78 FIP	24	SU	3.78	18.8%	7.3%	2.4%	.291	3.71	20.4%	10.1%	75	-0.07	3.71	118	84
Fineas Del Bonta-Smith R 2021 · 3.52 FIP	24	SU	3.52	23.4%	8.2%	2.5%	.262	6.07	20.4%	11.3%	128	+2.55	3.52	207	84
Peyton Williams R 2021 · 3.69 FIP	23	SU	3.69	22.3%	10.3%	2.1%	.311	4.82	22.2%	10.2%	100	+1.13	3.69	123	84
Carlos Navas R 2016 · 3.67 FIP	23	SU	3.67	22.0%	8.4%	2.5%	.283	3.52	22.0%	16.1%	229	-0.15	2.98	385	84
Mitchell Stumpo R 2021 · 3.97 FIP	25	SU	3.97	25.6%	8.0%	3.7%	.299	5.27	22.4%	6.8%	121	+1.30	3.97	158	84
Owen Holt R 2022 · 3.72 FIP	23	SU	3.72	20.7%	10.2%	2.0%	.258	4.51	18.7%	6.4%	107	+0.79	3.72	145	84
Breckin Williams R 2018 · 3.65 FIP	24	SU	3.65	22.6%	7.3%	2.8%	.282	2.78	23.4%	15.8%	48	-0.87	2.76	107	84
Parker Curry R 2017 · 3.73 FIP	23	SU	3.73	22.5%	8.2%	2.7%	.341	4.62	18.6%	11.6%	193	+0.89	3.73	256	83
Vince Vannelle R 2022 · 3.71 FIP	24	SU	3.71	19.9%	8.6%	2.2%	.282	5.30	15.3%	4.5%	76	+1.59	3.71	105	83
Kyle Martin R 2015 · 3.61 FIP	24	SU	3.61	21.2%	9.6%	2.0%	.345	3.51	22.4%	12.5%	172	-0.10	3.01	214	83
Kyle Schepel R 2015 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	23.1%	10.7%	3.9%	.233	3.64	22.1%	10.4%	120	-0.99	3.54	156	83

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	25	23.4%	8.2%	1.15	4.20
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Trevor Gott ('23)	1.0	51	22.0%	7.4%	0.79	3.97
Mike Mayers ('23)	1.2	47	24.3%	7.8%	1.50	4.47
Colin Poche ('24)	1.0	52	27.0%	9.2%	1.34	3.63
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79