Parker Carlson — OGILVIE

Parker Carlson P Brooklyn Cyclones

Age 23 RHP 6'2" / 192 lbs A+ peak 0.2 · 2028

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 38 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118110vR 102

ERA4.48

FIP4.48

K%21.1%

BB%8.9%

K-BB%12.2%

ROS IP39

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 38 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5055

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	AAA MLE	Syracuse Mets	44	3	61	250	51	20	7	7%	1.4	16.1%	8.5%	7.6%	3.3%	4.40	4.62	—
YTD	23	AAA MLE	Syracuse Mets	44	3	61	250	51	20	7	7%	1.4	16.1%	8.5%	7.6%	3.3%	4.40	4.62	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	23	A+ RAW	NYM	41	3	57	229	48	17	6	7%	1.4	21.0%	7.4%	13.5%	2.6%	3.81	3.71	—
2026	23	AA RAW	NYM	1	0	1	9	2	1	1	0%	1.0	22.2%	11.1%	11.1%	11.1%	54.00	8.73	—
2026	23	AAA RAW	NYM	2	0	4	12	1	2	0	0%	1.9	8.3%	16.7%	-8.3%	0.0%	0.00	4.51	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	NYM	59	0	62	260	57	22	8	0%	1.0	21.9%	8.6%	13.3%	3.0%	4.40	4.36	+0.1
2028	25	MLB MLE	NYM	59	0	62	263	59	22	8	0%	1.1	22.4%	8.5%	13.9%	3.0%	4.34	4.30	+0.2
2029	26	MLB MLE	NYM	59	0	62	263	60	22	8	0%	1.1	22.6%	8.5%	14.1%	3.0%	4.30	4.27	+0.2
2030	27	MLB MLE	NYM	59	0	62	260	59	22	8	0%	1.0	22.7%	8.6%	14.1%	3.0%	4.31	4.31	+0.2
2027	24	MLB CTX	NYM	26	0	27	114	25	10	3	0%	1.0	21.9%	8.6%	13.3%	3.0%	4.40	4.36	+0.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	NYM	39	0	41	173	39	15	5	0%	1.1	22.4%	8.5%	13.9%	3.0%	4.34	4.30	+0.1
2029	26	MLB CTX	NYM	47	0	49	207	47	18	6	0%	1.0	22.6%	8.5%	14.1%	3.0%	4.30	4.27	+0.2
2030	27	MLB CTX	NYM	50	0	52	220	50	19	7	0%	1.0	22.7%	8.6%	14.1%	3.0%	4.31	4.31	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		162	0	170	717	161	61	21	0%	1.0	22.5%	8.6%	13.9%	3.0%	4.33	3.93	+1.3
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	190	72	25	0%	1.1	22.5%	8.6%	13.9%	3.0%	4.33	3.93	+1.5
Career	—	MLE		44	3	61	250	40	21	8	7%	1.4	16.1%	8.5%	7.6%	3.3%	4.40	4.62	+0.7
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		143	10	200	815	132	70	27	7%	1.4	16.1%	8.5%	7.6%	3.3%	4.40	4.62	+0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Parker Carlson (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.48	21.1%	8.9%	3.0%	—	4.31	22.3%	13.8%	186	-0.17	—	—	—
Heath Holder R 2016 · 4.16 FIP	23	SU	4.16	21.1%	10.1%	2.8%	.287	3.30	22.3%	13.1%	247	-0.86	2.94	367	93
Austin Smith R 2022 · 3.88 FIP	23	SU	3.88	22.7%	10.0%	2.6%	.274	5.15	16.3%	0.7%	52	+1.27	3.88	148	91
Vince Vannelle R 2022 · 3.71 FIP	24	SU	3.71	19.9%	8.6%	2.2%	.282	5.30	15.3%	4.5%	76	+1.59	3.71	105	90
Carlos Navas R 2016 · 3.67 FIP	23	SU	3.67	22.0%	8.4%	2.5%	.283	3.52	22.0%	16.1%	229	-0.15	2.98	385	90
Reilly Hovis R 2017 · 4.28 FIP	23	SU	4.28	21.1%	7.7%	3.6%	.250	4.36	19.8%	6.4%	50	+0.08	4.28	130	89
Tyler Bray R 2015 · 4.07 FIP	23	SU	4.07	22.3%	9.1%	3.1%	.356	3.21	17.9%	7.6%	114	-0.86	2.82	152	89
Peyton Williams R 2021 · 3.69 FIP	23	SU	3.69	22.3%	10.3%	2.1%	.311	4.82	22.2%	10.2%	100	+1.13	3.69	123	89
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	88
Devon Roedahl R 2019 · 3.94 FIP	22	SU	3.94	19.7%	6.7%	3.0%	.305	4.64	16.5%	9.2%	100	+0.70	3.94	122	88
Alex Palsha R 2016 · 3.84 FIP	24	SU	3.84	20.6%	10.4%	2.1%	.288	3.83	15.3%	4.4%	77	-0.01	3.40	134	88
Jonathan Brand R 2023 · 3.95 FIP	23	SU	3.95	22.7%	10.8%	2.5%	.236	4.79	19.7%	9.4%	160	+0.84	3.34	198	88
Matt Pidich R 2018 · 4.42 FIP	23	SU	4.42	17.1%	8.3%	3.1%	.303	4.08	20.8%	13.3%	115	-0.34	4.05	196	88
Austin Ross R 2019 · 4.41 FIP	24	SU	4.41	20.7%	9.6%	3.4%	.281	5.19	21.2%	5.7%	55	+0.78	4.41	121	87
Fineas Del Bonta-Smith R 2021 · 3.52 FIP	24	SU	3.52	23.4%	8.2%	2.5%	.262	6.07	20.4%	11.3%	128	+2.55	3.52	207	87
Colby Morris R 2021 · 4.11 FIP	24	SU	4.11	20.4%	10.7%	2.5%	.291	5.76	16.2%	4.4%	54	+1.65	4.11	105	87
Kyle Martin R 2015 · 3.61 FIP	24	SU	3.61	21.2%	9.6%	2.0%	.345	3.51	22.4%	12.5%	172	-0.10	3.01	214	87
Josh Advocate R 2018 · 3.78 FIP	24	SU	3.78	18.8%	7.3%	2.4%	.291	3.71	20.4%	10.1%	75	-0.07	3.71	118	87
Roman Mendez R 2015 · 4.31 FIP	25	SU	4.31	19.1%	8.1%	3.3%	.275	4.52	20.2%	10.4%	118	+0.21	4.12	230	87
Breckin Williams R 2018 · 3.65 FIP	24	SU	3.65	22.6%	7.3%	2.8%	.282	2.78	23.4%	15.8%	48	-0.87	2.76	107	87
Brett Standlee R 2022 · 4.13 FIP	23	SU	4.13	19.7%	11.1%	2.4%	.322	4.45	17.0%	8.9%	75	+0.32	4.13	128	87

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.4	57	22.2%	8.6%	1.16	4.36
Noé Ramirez ('22)	1.3	52	24.8%	9.0%	1.33	4.19
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79
Austin Voth ('24)	1.7	58	22.2%	8.2%	1.50	4.63
Mike Mayers ('23)	1.2	47	24.3%	7.8%	1.50	4.47