Cole Miller — OGILVIE

Cole Miller P Stockton Ports

+0.3 WAR

Age 21 RHP 6'6" / 226 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036 peak 0.5 · 2029

ERA4.23

FIP4.23

xFIP—

SIERA—

K%22.2%

BB%8.6%

K-BB%13.6%

IP34

trajectory · 10 yrs

0.5peak

2029

K†5560

Career (MLE) + Projections

Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	K%	BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
2025	20	A	Stockton Ports	15	12	52	210	45	11	1	16.5%	5.9%	0.7%	1.90	2.84	+1.2
▸ 2026 Season
2026	21	A	Stockton Ports	2	1	6	31	9	2	1	—	—	—	8.53	—	—
ROS	21	MLB	OAK	34	—	34	145	32	12	4	22.2%	8.6%	2.8%	4.23	4.23	+0.3
2026 Total	21	MLB	OAK	—	—	41	176	41	14	5	23.4%	8.2%	2.9%	4.90	3.57	+0.6
▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging
2027	22	MLB	OAK	36	—	36	152	35	12	4	23.2%	8.2%	2.8%	4.14	4.08	+0.4
2028	23	MLB	OAK	37	—	37	158	38	13	4	23.9%	8.0%	2.7%	4.05	3.97	+0.4
2029	24	MLB	OAK	38	—	38	162	40	13	4	24.5%	7.8%	2.7%	3.97	3.90	+0.5
2030	25	MLB	OAK	39	—	39	164	41	13	4	24.8%	7.7%	2.7%	3.90	3.85	+0.5
2031	26	MLB	OAK	39	—	39	164	41	13	4	25.0%	7.7%	2.7%	3.86	3.83	+0.5
2032	27	MLB	OAK	38	—	38	163	41	13	4	25.0%	7.7%	2.7%	3.85	3.84	+0.5
2033	28	MLB	OAK	38	—	38	160	40	12	4	25.0%	7.8%	2.8%	3.86	3.87	+0.5
2034	29	MLB	OAK	37	—	37	156	39	12	4	24.9%	7.8%	2.8%	3.89	3.91	+0.4
2035	30	MLB	OAK	36	—	36	152	37	12	4	24.7%	7.9%	2.9%	3.94	3.97	+0.4
2036	31	MLB	OAK	35	—	35	146	36	12	4	24.4%	8.1%	2.9%	4.00	4.05	+0.4
2037	32	MLB	OAK	33	—	33	140	34	11	4	24.1%	8.2%	3.0%	4.08	4.13	+0.3
2038	33	MLB	OAK	32	—	32	134	32	11	4	23.8%	8.4%	3.1%	4.17	4.23	+0.3
2039	34	MLB	OAK	30	—	30	127	30	11	4	23.5%	8.6%	3.2%	4.27	4.34	+0.2
▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected)
Career	—			17	13	58	241	44	14	3	18.2%	5.9%	1.0%	2.62	2.89	+1.4
/ 200 IP	—			58	45	200	826	151	48	10	18.2%	5.9%	1.0%	2.62	2.89	+5.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Cole Miller (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.23	22.2%	8.6%	2.8%	—	3.98	23.9%	15.9%	112	-0.25	—	—	—
Addison Russ R 2027 · 3.55 FIP	22	SU	3.55	22.2%	7.9%	2.4%	.324	3.08	25.6%	17.5%	121	-0.47	3.07	194	93
Cody Palmquist R 2027 · 4.20 FIP	22	SU	4.20	21.9%	9.0%	3.3%	.278	5.95	14.7%	7.1%	62	+1.75	4.20	104	91
Kevin Coulter R 2027 · 3.27 FIP	22	SU	3.27	21.0%	7.4%	1.8%	.287	4.54	16.1%	7.6%	92	+1.27	3.27	128	91
Andrew Hoffmann R 2026 · 3.15 FIP	21	SU	3.15	23.6%	8.1%	1.8%	.275	4.89	19.0%	8.7%	311	+1.74	3.15	395	91
Devon Roedahl R 2027 · 3.94 FIP	22	SU	3.94	19.7%	6.7%	3.0%	.305	4.67	16.5%	9.2%	100	+0.73	3.94	122	91
Ian Koenig R 2027 · 3.71 FIP	22	SU	3.71	20.0%	6.6%	2.6%	.310	5.79	14.2%	5.9%	146	+2.08	3.71	166	91
Collin Kober R 2027 · 3.39 FIP	22	SU	3.39	21.3%	7.5%	2.1%	.268	2.76	24.0%	17.9%	128	-0.63	2.38	294	90
Kyle Zurak R 2027 · 3.96 FIP	22	SU	3.96	21.2%	9.4%	2.6%	.302	3.42	16.7%	7.5%	121	-0.54	3.19	181	90
Jeff Bain R 2026 · 3.94 FIP	21	SU	3.94	19.7%	6.7%	3.0%	.339	4.24	19.1%	10.7%	274	+0.30	3.35	475	90
Mariano Salomon R 2026 · 3.13 FIP	21	SU	3.13	21.0%	6.9%	1.7%	.282	4.72	18.5%	10.4%	67	+1.59	2.56	158	89
J.T. Hintzen R 2027 · 3.22 FIP	22	SU	3.22	20.1%	7.0%	1.7%	.303	4.37	24.1%	15.1%	123	+1.15	3.22	205	89
Cole Stapler R 2027 · 3.83 FIP	22	SU	3.83	19.2%	6.0%	2.9%	.266	3.31	18.1%	13.2%	220	-0.52	3.25	255	89
Connor Cooke R 2027 · 3.37 FIP	22	SU	3.37	23.7%	8.4%	2.2%	.350	4.28	24.6%	10.4%	56	+0.91	2.93	103	89
Kenny Oakley R 2027 · 3.50 FIP	22	SU	3.50	23.8%	9.1%	2.3%	.348	3.89	17.3%	7.8%	115	+0.39	3.18	144	89
Scott Williams R 2026 · 3.36 FIP	21	SU	3.36	22.0%	8.6%	1.9%	.238	3.68	19.3%	10.5%	76	+0.32	2.89	119	88
Sam Delaplane R 2027 · 3.18 FIP	22	SU	3.18	24.6%	7.7%	2.1%	.342	2.87	32.7%	23.4%	128	-0.31	2.58	194	88
Michael Gomez R 2027 · 3.33 FIP	22	SU	3.33	22.6%	9.2%	1.8%	.283	3.80	17.9%	8.3%	110	+0.47	3.33	286	88
Jake Elliott R 2026 · 3.82 FIP	21	SU	3.82	19.2%	7.1%	2.6%	.353	3.79	18.1%	10.0%	202	-0.03	2.87	354	88
Caleb Sampen R 2027 · 3.46 FIP	22	SU	3.46	21.7%	8.3%	2.1%	.358	3.49	15.2%	6.8%	139	+0.03	3.09	213	88
Dylan DeLucia R 2028 · 3.83 FIP	23	SU	3.83	21.6%	7.4%	2.9%	.241	5.00	18.8%	8.2%	108	+1.17	3.83	144	88

Contract

ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Arb-3	$0.9M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2032	Ext / FA-deal	$0.9M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2033	Ext / FA-deal	$1.0M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2034	Ext / FA-deal	$1M	+0.4	$2M	+$1M
2035	Ext / FA-deal	$1M	+0.4	$2M	+$0.7M
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$5M		$11M	+$6M