Cole Miller — OGILVIE

Cole Miller P Stockton Ports

Age 21 RHP 6'6" / 226 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033 peak 0.8 · 2030

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 35 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 113105vR 97

ERA4.21

FIP4.21

K%18.4%

BB%5.9%

K-BB%12.5%

ROS IP36

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 35 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$27M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—45

STUF5055

CTRL—55

CMD3055

K†4560

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2028

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2033

First FA Year 2034

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2028
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.7	$2M	+$2M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.8	$2M	+$2M
2031	Arb-1	$2M	+0.9	$2M	+$1M
2032	Arb-2	$3M	+0.8	$2M	+$0.4M
2033	Arb-3	$3M	+0.7	$2M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$7M		$12M	+$6M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	12	52	210	45	11	1	80%	3.5	16.5%	5.9%	10.7%	0.7%	1.90	2.84	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	15	12	52	210	45	11	1	80%	3.5	16.5%	5.9%	10.7%	0.7%	1.90	2.84	—
2025	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	15	12	52	210	45	11	1	80%	3.5	21.4%	5.2%	16.2%	0.5%	1.90	2.25	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	A MLE	Stockton Ports	34	8	82	378	80	34	14	24%	2.4	15.7%	10.6%	5.0%	4.8%	6.67	5.76	—
YTD	21	A MLE	Stockton Ports	34	8	82	378	80	34	14	24%	2.4	15.7%	10.6%	5.0%	4.8%	6.67	5.76	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	21	A RAW	OAK	34	8	82	378	80	34	14	24%	2.4	21.2%	9.0%	12.2%	3.7%	6.67	4.49	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	OAK	81	0	85	357	73	20	10	0%	1.0	20.5%	5.7%	14.8%	2.8%	4.08	3.99	+0.6
2028	23	MLB MLE	OAK	84	0	88	371	80	21	10	0%	1.0	21.7%	5.5%	16.2%	2.7%	3.95	3.85	+0.7
2029	24	MLB MLE	OAK	86	0	90	380	85	21	10	0%	1.0	22.4%	5.4%	17.0%	2.7%	3.85	3.76	+0.9
2030	25	MLB MLE	OAK	87	0	91	385	88	21	10	0%	1.0	22.9%	5.3%	17.5%	2.7%	3.78	3.72	+0.9
2031	26	MLB MLE	OAK	87	0	91	385	89	20	10	0%	1.0	23.1%	5.3%	17.7%	2.7%	3.73	3.70	+0.9
2032	27	MLB MLE	OAK	85	0	90	379	87	20	10	0%	1.1	23.0%	5.4%	17.6%	2.8%	3.73	3.73	+0.9
2033	28	MLB MLE	OAK	83	0	87	367	84	20	11	0%	1.0	22.9%	5.5%	17.4%	2.9%	3.78	3.82	+0.8
2034	29	MLB MLE	OAK	79	0	83	351	80	20	11	0%	1.1	22.7%	5.8%	16.9%	3.0%	3.88	3.95	+0.6
2035	30	MLB MLE	OAK	74	0	78	330	80	17	11	0%	1.1	24.3%	5.3%	19.1%	3.2%	3.87	3.86	+0.6
2036	31	MLB MLE	OAK	69	0	73	307	74	17	11	0%	1.1	23.9%	5.6%	18.3%	3.4%	3.98	4.06	+0.4
2027	22	MLB CTX	OAK	40	0	42	177	36	10	5	0%	1.1	20.5%	5.7%	14.8%	2.7%	4.04	3.95	+0.3
2028	23	MLB CTX	OAK	61	0	64	270	59	15	7	0%	1.0	21.7%	5.5%	16.2%	2.7%	3.91	3.81	+0.5
2029	24	MLB CTX	OAK	71	0	75	317	71	17	8	0%	1.1	22.4%	5.4%	17.0%	2.7%	3.81	3.72	+0.7
2030	25	MLB CTX	OAK	76	0	80	338	77	18	9	0%	1.1	22.9%	5.3%	17.5%	2.6%	3.74	3.68	+0.8
2031	26	MLB CTX	OAK	79	0	83	350	81	19	9	0%	1.1	23.1%	5.3%	17.7%	2.6%	3.69	3.66	+0.9
2032	27	MLB CTX	OAK	79	0	83	350	81	19	9	0%	1.1	23.0%	5.4%	17.6%	2.7%	3.69	3.69	+0.8
2033	28	MLB CTX	OAK	77	0	81	342	78	19	10	0%	1.1	22.9%	5.5%	17.4%	2.8%	3.74	3.78	+0.7
2034	29	MLB CTX	OAK	75	0	79	334	76	19	10	0%	1.1	22.7%	5.8%	16.9%	2.9%	3.84	3.91	+0.6
2035	30	MLB CTX	OAK	70	0	74	312	76	16	10	0%	1.1	24.3%	5.3%	19.1%	3.1%	3.83	3.82	+0.6
2036	31	MLB CTX	OAK	66	0	69	291	70	16	10	0%	1.0	23.9%	5.6%	18.3%	3.4%	3.93	4.01	+0.4
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		696	0	731	3085	705	169	87	0%	1.0	22.9%	5.5%	17.4%	2.8%	3.81	3.41	+9.9
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	193	46	24	0%	1.0	22.9%	5.5%	17.4%	2.8%	3.81	3.41	+2.7
Career	—	MLE		49	20	134	588	94	52	20	41%	2.7	16.0%	8.9%	7.1%	3.4%	4.82	4.72	+7.3
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		73	30	200	875	140	78	29	41%	2.7	16.0%	8.9%	7.1%	3.4%	4.82	4.72	+1.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Cole Miller (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.21	18.4%	5.9%	2.8%	—	3.86	21.6%	16.0%	262	-0.35	—	—	—
Cole Stapler R 2017 · 3.83 FIP	22	SW	3.83	19.2%	6.0%	2.9%	.266	3.31	18.1%	13.2%	220	-0.52	3.26	255	93
Simon Mathews R 2017 · 4.09 FIP	21	SW	4.09	17.7%	7.5%	2.8%	.326	4.42	16.0%	5.9%	167	+0.33	4.09	215	89
Nick Gallagher R 2018 · 4.26 FIP	22	SW	4.26	17.2%	7.1%	3.1%	.310	4.55	22.4%	7.1%	90	+0.29	4.10	196	88
Mark Washington R 2017 · 3.11 FIP	21	SW	3.11	16.8%	5.7%	1.3%	.329	4.17	16.2%	3.4%	79	+1.06	3.11	271	86
Dawil Almonte R 2022 · 3.59 FIP	20	SW	3.59	17.4%	7.8%	1.8%	.271	4.54	14.7%	3.3%	97	+0.95	3.59	138	85
Marc Brakeman R 2016 · 3.85 FIP	22	SW	3.85	17.9%	7.1%	2.5%	.319	4.92	18.6%	5.0%	83	+1.07	3.85	156	85
Tomas Cleto R 2022 · 3.15 FIP	21	SW	3.15	16.5%	5.8%	1.3%	.282	4.93	14.0%	-1.4%	31	+1.78	3.15	117	84
Austin Hutchison R 2017 · 4.05 FIP	22	SW	4.05	19.7%	6.0%	3.4%	.340	4.55	18.7%	9.2%	213	+0.50	3.51	235	84
Jose Gutierrez R 2023 · 3.59 FIP	20	SW	3.59	16.3%	5.3%	2.2%	.360	4.36	15.1%	4.8%	181	+0.77	3.34	214	84
Jeremy Walker R 2016 · 3.49 FIP	21	SW	3.49	14.5%	5.8%	1.6%	.302	3.75	14.3%	7.8%	355	+0.26	2.45	519	84
Clark Beeker R 2016 · 4.04 FIP	23	SW	4.04	20.0%	7.1%	3.2%	.270	4.35	11.6%	6.4%	244	+0.31	4.04	287	83
Evan McKendry R 2021 · 4.20 FIP	23	SW	4.20	18.4%	5.5%	3.6%	.256	5.11	18.0%	11.7%	324	+0.91	4.20	474	83
Scooter Hightower R 2015 · 3.23 FIP	21	SW	3.23	18.7%	4.4%	2.1%	.304	2.86	19.6%	14.6%	68	-0.37	2.86	160	83
Duque Hebbert R 2023 · 3.18 FIP	21	SP-	3.18	17.8%	4.8%	1.8%	.324	4.54	13.4%	6.1%	130	+1.36	3.18	168	83
Geno Encina R 2015 · 4.22 FIP	21	SW	4.22	16.5%	6.8%	3.0%	.325	7.09	12.0%	2.3%	76	+2.87	4.22	200	83
Evan Guillory R 2017 · 3.45 FIP	21	SW	3.45	13.1%	4.8%	1.6%	.285	4.92	12.4%	4.6%	137	+1.47	3.45	182	82
Tom de Blok R 2017 · 3.87 FIP	21	SW	3.87	17.3%	4.9%	2.9%	.285	4.70	13.0%	3.1%	213	+0.83	3.87	291	82
Wilmer Ortega R 2022 · 4.01 FIP	21	SP-	4.01	18.2%	7.9%	2.6%	.304	5.81	16.1%	1.8%	30	+1.80	3.62	158	81
Huei-Sheng Lin R 2019 · 4.59 FIP	20	SW	4.59	17.4%	7.4%	3.7%	.360	5.64	16.1%	3.7%	88	+1.05	4.59	120	81
Clayton McGinness R 2019 · 3.85 FIP	22	SW	3.85	19.4%	4.5%	3.3%	.291	4.63	18.7%	7.8%	84	+0.78	3.85	106	81

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	4.5	81	22.5%	5.5%	1.11	3.87
Ross Stripling ('24)	4.2	94	20.9%	5.6%	1.32	4.17
Michael Fulmer ('23)	3.4	96	20.3%	7.6%	0.99	3.94
Alex Wood ('24)	5.0	111	21.6%	7.0%	0.96	3.98
Matt Wisler ('22)	2.5	63	20.1%	7.6%	1.40	4.59
Joe Musgrove ('24)	5.3	117	23.9%	6.0%	1.13	3.73
Daniel Norris ('22)	2.8	70	21.7%	8.5%	1.37	4.70