Leonardo Lugo prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Leonardo Lugo P DSL Twins

Age 21 RHP 5'11" / 170 lbs ROK

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 16 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 123115vR 107

ERA4.72

FIP4.72

K%22.3%

BB%11.7%

K-BB%10.6%

ROS IP16

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 16 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL Twins	15	1	26	144	34	23	5	7%	1.8	16.1%	20.0%	-3.9%	4.7%	10.94	6.86	—
2022	17	ROK RAW	DSL Twins	15	1	26	144	34	23	5	7%	1.8	23.6%	16.0%	7.6%	3.5%	10.94	5.61	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Twins	10	2	27	143	22	19	2	20%	2.7	10.5%	16.6%	-6.1%	2.0%	7.33	5.39	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Twins	10	2	27	143	22	19	2	20%	2.7	10.5%	16.6%	-6.1%	2.0%	7.33	5.39	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	DSL Twins	10	2	27	143	22	19	2	20%	2.7	15.4%	13.3%	2.1%	1.4%	7.33	4.54	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	21	MLB	MIN	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	22.3%	11.7%	10.6%	3.0%	4.72	4.72	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	MIN	19	0	20	84	20	9	2	0%	1.1	23.3%	10.5%	12.8%	2.9%	4.54	4.45	+0.0
2027	22	MLB CTX	MIN	10	0	10	42	10	4	1	0%	1.0	23.3%	10.5%	12.8%	2.9%	4.54	4.45	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		9	0	10	42	10	4	1	0%	1.1	23.3%	10.5%	12.8%	2.9%	4.54	4.07	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	203	81	20	0%	1.1	23.3%	10.5%	12.8%	2.9%	4.54	4.07	+1.1
Career	—	MLE		25	3	53	287	38	52	10	12%	2.1	13.3%	18.3%	-5.0%	3.3%	9.11	6.13	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		94	11	200	1076	143	197	36	12%	2.1	13.3%	18.3%	-5.0%	3.3%	9.11	6.13	+0.2

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Leonardo Lugo (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.72	22.3%	11.7%	3.0%	—	4.45	23.3%	12.8%	20	-0.27	—	—	—
Kyle Zurak R 2017 · 3.96 FIP	22	SU	3.96	21.2%	9.4%	2.6%	.302	3.42	16.7%	7.5%	121	-0.54	3.20	181	88
Rolddy Muñoz R 2021 · 4.32 FIP	21	SU	4.32	21.4%	13.7%	2.4%	.342	3.54	21.1%	9.8%	149	-0.78	3.18	290	84
Luis Romero R 2017 · 5.00 FIP	23	SU	5.00	22.1%	11.9%	4.1%	.367	4.26	21.6%	12.5%	132	-0.74	4.00	293	84
Justin Meis R 2021 · 4.07 FIP	21	SU	4.07	25.6%	13.6%	2.6%	.300	5.14	18.2%	5.5%	261	+1.07	3.68	411	84
Brandyn Sittinger R 2017 · 4.37 FIP	23	SU	4.37	22.2%	13.8%	2.5%	.324	3.97	21.2%	7.2%	72	-0.40	3.58	152	82
Zac Ryan R 2017 · 3.83 FIP	23	SU	3.83	20.5%	10.9%	2.0%	.233	3.93	21.6%	6.9%	124	+0.10	3.83	184	82
Kyle Marman R 2019 · 3.97 FIP	22	SU	3.97	22.2%	12.8%	2.0%	.270	5.16	22.5%	8.4%	71	+1.19	3.97	117	82
Brandon Komar R 2019 · 4.77 FIP	20	SW	4.77	17.7%	11.6%	3.1%	.327	4.93	16.7%	5.7%	198	+0.16	3.00	538	82
Cody Palmquist R 2016 · 4.31 FIP	22	SU	4.31	21.9%	9.0%	3.5%	.278	6.02	14.7%	7.1%	62	+1.71	4.31	104	82
Jeremy Beasley R 2017 · 4.71 FIP	21	SU	4.71	19.5%	11.6%	3.3%	.273	4.10	17.7%	8.7%	234	-0.61	3.17	337	81
Tyler Mitzel R 2019 · 4.34 FIP	23	SU	4.34	24.1%	12.0%	3.2%	.245	4.10	22.4%	14.3%	96	-0.24	4.03	142	81
Chris Gau R 2018 · 4.76 FIP	21	SU	4.76	20.0%	8.6%	4.1%	.290	3.19	29.5%	23.5%	37	-1.57	2.96	211	81
Logan Lombana R 2015 · 4.63 FIP	21	SU	4.63	16.9%	10.0%	3.1%	.315	4.02	15.7%	8.1%	123	-0.61	3.80	155	81
Danny Dopico R 2015 · 3.87 FIP	21	SU	3.87	25.4%	10.8%	2.8%	.333	3.90	22.8%	8.1%	173	+0.03	3.00	318	81
Reiss Knehr R 2018 · 4.29 FIP	21	SU	4.29	21.3%	12.3%	2.6%	.267	4.86	18.8%	7.2%	171	+0.57	3.36	398	81
Heath Holder R 2016 · 4.16 FIP	23	SU	4.16	21.1%	10.1%	2.8%	.287	3.30	22.3%	13.1%	247	-0.86	2.94	367	81
Sandy Lugo R 2015 · 3.86 FIP	21	SU	3.86	20.7%	9.5%	2.4%	.352	3.98	23.6%	12.5%	119	+0.12	3.48	146	81
Gerlin Rosario R 2023 · 3.79 FIP	21	SU	3.79	20.3%	9.1%	2.3%	.294	4.94	18.1%	5.4%	153	+1.15	3.02	248	81
Jordan Mikel R 2021 · 4.49 FIP	22	SU	4.49	20.5%	12.5%	2.8%	.330	4.16	19.2%	9.0%	109	-0.33	3.04	195	80
Alec Barger R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SW	4.55	21.7%	13.6%	2.8%	.289	4.17	21.3%	9.4%	148	-0.38	3.85	242	80