Danny Hilario

P FCL Rays

Age 22 RHP 6'0" / 185 lbs ROK peak 0.1 · 2028

Overview

ROKPROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2023	18	ROKTB	13	25	4.38	3.91	26.2%	15.5%	—	K 17.8% · BB 19.4% · FIP 5.65
2024	19	ROKTB	15	25	3.65	2.45	25.4%	12.3%	—	K 17.3% · BB 15.4% · FIP 3.58
2025	20	MIX2 levels	22	43	2.30	2.50	24.8%	6.1%	—	K 17.2% · BB 7.4% · FIP 3.73
2027PROJ	22	MLBTB	22	23	4.49	4.49	20.6%	9.0%	0.0
2028PROJ49% MLB	23	MLBTB	19	20	4.39	4.33	21.6%	8.6%	0.1

Next 2 projected WAR 0.1Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

CompsHeath Holder (age 23) · Addison Russ (age 22) · Cody Palmquist (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 118110vR 102

ERA4.49

FIP4.49

K%20.6%

BB%9.0%

K-BB%11.6%

Proj IP23

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 23 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL Rays	11	0	14	71	14	13	5	0%	1.3	13.4%	22.9%	-9.5%	9.3%	10.05	9.95	—
2022	17	ROK RAW	DSL Rays	11	0	14	71	14	13	5	0%	1.3	19.7%	18.3%	1.4%	7.0%	10.05	8.40	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	DSL Rays	13	0	25	103	27	16	2	0%	1.9	17.8%	19.4%	-1.6%	2.9%	4.38	5.65	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	DSL Rays	13	0	25	103	27	16	2	0%	1.9	26.2%	15.5%	10.7%	1.9%	4.38	3.91	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Rays	15	0	25	114	29	14	0	0%	1.6	17.3%	15.4%	1.9%	0.0%	3.65	3.58	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	DSL Rays	15	0	25	114	29	14	0	0%	1.6	17.3%	15.4%	1.9%	0.0%	3.65	3.58	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	DSL Rays	15	0	25	114	29	14	0	0%	1.6	25.4%	12.3%	13.2%	0.0%	3.65	2.45	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	0	43	165	41	10	2	0%	2.0	17.2%	7.4%	9.9%	2.1%	2.30	3.73	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	22	0	43	165	41	10	2	0%	2.0	17.2%	7.4%	9.9%	2.1%	2.30	3.73	—
2025	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	22	0	43	165	41	10	2	0%	2.0	24.8%	6.1%	18.8%	1.2%	2.30	2.50	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	22	MLB	TB	22	0	23	97	20	9	3	0%	1.0	20.6%	9.0%	11.6%	2.9%	4.49	4.49	+0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	TB	38	0	40	170	37	15	5	0%	1.1	21.6%	8.6%	13.0%	2.9%	4.39	4.33	+0.1
2028	23	MLB CTX	TB	19	0	20	84	18	7	2	0%	1.1	21.6%	8.6%	13.0%	2.9%	4.39	4.33	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		19	0	20	83	18	7	2	0%	1.0	21.6%	8.6%	13.0%	2.9%	4.39	3.95	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	182	71	20	0%	1.1	21.6%	8.6%	13.0%	2.9%	4.39	3.95	+1.4
Career	—	MLE		61	0	107	453	76	66	13	0%	1.7	16.8%	14.5%	2.2%	2.9%	4.13	5.10	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		114	0	200	849	143	124	24	0%	1.7	16.8%	14.5%	2.2%	2.9%	4.13	5.10	+0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Danny Hilario (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.49	20.6%	9.0%	2.9%	—	4.33	21.6%	13.0%	40	-0.16	—	—	—
Heath Holder R 2016 · 4.16 FIP	23	SU	4.16	21.1%	10.1%	2.8%	.287	3.30	22.3%	13.1%	247	-0.86	2.94	367	92
Addison Russ R 2017 · 3.62 FIP	22	SU	3.62	22.2%	7.9%	2.5%	.324	3.09	25.6%	17.5%	121	-0.53	3.08	194	91
Cody Palmquist R 2016 · 4.31 FIP	22	SU	4.31	21.9%	9.0%	3.5%	.278	6.02	14.7%	7.1%	62	+1.71	4.31	104	90
Chris Gau R 2018 · 4.76 FIP	21	SU	4.76	20.0%	8.6%	4.1%	.290	3.19	29.5%	23.5%	37	-1.57	2.96	211	90
Michael Gomez R 2019 · 3.32 FIP	22	SU	3.32	22.6%	9.2%	1.8%	.283	3.81	17.9%	8.3%	110	+0.49	3.27	286	89
Devon Roedahl R 2019 · 3.94 FIP	22	SU	3.94	19.7%	6.7%	3.0%	.305	4.64	16.5%	9.2%	100	+0.70	3.94	122	89
Kyle Zurak R 2017 · 3.96 FIP	22	SU	3.96	21.2%	9.4%	2.6%	.302	3.42	16.7%	7.5%	121	-0.54	3.20	181	89
Corey Copping R 2016 · 4.13 FIP	22	SU	4.13	21.4%	8.7%	3.1%	.265	4.55	19.6%	6.7%	179	+0.42	3.38	214	89
Matt Pidich R 2018 · 4.42 FIP	23	SU	4.42	17.1%	8.3%	3.1%	.303	4.08	20.8%	13.3%	115	-0.34	4.05	196	88
Owen Holt R 2022 · 3.72 FIP	23	SU	3.72	20.7%	10.2%	2.0%	.258	4.51	18.7%	6.4%	107	+0.79	3.72	145	88
David Garner R 2015 · 3.81 FIP	22	SU	3.81	21.7%	10.0%	2.3%	.282	4.52	19.8%	5.2%	98	+0.71	3.81	154	88
Tyler Bray R 2015 · 4.07 FIP	23	SU	4.07	22.3%	9.1%	3.1%	.356	3.21	17.9%	7.6%	114	-0.86	2.82	152	88
Collin Kober R 2017 · 3.39 FIP	22	SU	3.39	21.3%	7.5%	2.1%	.268	2.76	24.0%	17.9%	128	-0.63	2.38	294	88
Luke Bell R 2024 · 3.62 FIP	23	SU	3.62	20.4%	9.9%	1.8%	.295	5.69	13.1%	1.3%	66	+2.07	3.62	110	87
Peyton Williams R 2021 · 3.69 FIP	23	SU	3.69	22.3%	10.3%	2.1%	.311	4.82	22.2%	10.2%	100	+1.13	3.69	123	87
Reilly Hovis R 2017 · 4.28 FIP	23	SU	4.28	21.1%	7.7%	3.6%	.250	4.36	19.8%	6.4%	50	+0.08	4.28	130	87
Reece Karalus R 2016 · 4.80 FIP	22	SU	4.80	18.5%	8.6%	4.0%	.298	4.81	14.8%	4.1%	103	+0.01	4.73	149	87
Jorge Julio R 2001 · 3.48 FIP	22	SU	3.48	22.2%	9.1%	2.0%	.348	4.31	20.4%	10.1%	199	+0.83	3.48	467	87
Vince Vannelle R 2022 · 3.71 FIP	24	SU	3.71	19.9%	8.6%	2.2%	.282	5.30	15.3%	4.5%	76	+1.59	3.71	105	87
Josh Advocate R 2018 · 3.78 FIP	24	SU	3.78	18.8%	7.3%	2.4%	.291	3.71	20.4%	10.1%	75	-0.07	3.71	118	87

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	32	21.3%	8.7%	1.13	4.43
Ian Krol ('21)	1.0	42	21.2%	8.8%	1.25	4.49
Kevin Quackenbush ('21)	1.0	52	21.0%	9.2%	1.04	4.41
Yency Almonte ('24)	1.1	45	22.5%	9.9%	1.13	4.44
Dave Baldwin ('66-'73, 2 WAR*)	1.1	56	22.2%*	9.2%*	0.96*	3.97*
Kevin Hickey ('81-'91, 0 WAR*)	1.2	47	17.7%*	10.2%*	1.10*	4.27*
Ed Vosberg ('86-'02, 1 WAR*)	1.2	47	21.0%*	9.6%*	0.86*	4.06*