Larry Martinez

3B Charleston RiverDogs
Age 21 R/R 5'11" / 170 lbs A HR -6%H +4% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037
Overview
APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038
ETA2029MLB%0%
YearAgeLvl / TeamPAAVG/OBP/SLGHRSBwRC+WARMLE AVG/OBP/SLG
202418ROKTB176.295/.400/.3690370—.239/.326/.290
202519ATB332.248/.299/.2800442—.221/.266/.253
202620A+/ATB173.274/.296/.3723145—.229/.248/.302
2027PROJMLE21MLBTB283.220/.250/.2912450-0.3
2028PROJ34% MLB22MLBTB53.227/.260/.3131159-0.1
2029PROJ48% MLB23MLBTB114.232/.267/.3282265-0.1
Next 3 projected WAR -0.6Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.
ContractESTIMATED
Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038
2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Ext$1.0M+3
Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A+
K%36
Whiff%32
Z-Con%23
ISO14
Speed5
wRC+4
Career WAR0.0 WAR median (P10 -0.0 / P90 0.0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 94%
CompsHumberto Arteaga (age 21) · Fidel Hernandez (age 21) · Yeltsin Gudino (age 21)
2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 100 proj PA
wRC+†50
AVG/OBP/SLG.218 / .248 / .289
PA100
HR1
K%22
BB%3
ISO72
MLB%0%
Value2027 · WAR
BAT: -5.9 runs (wOBA-derived runs vs avg)-6BATRUN: +0.2 runs (SB/CS + UBR baserunning)+0RUNFLD: +0.0 runs (Defensive runs vs avg)+0FLDPOS: +0.4 runs (Positional adjustment)+0POSREP: +2.2 runs (Replacement-level credit)+2REPTotal WAR: -0.30-0.3WAR
0.00.51.00.00.027282930313233343536
━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$2M ctrl surplus
Tools · ContractCON 45 / POW 20
Toolsscout grade
CONTACT45
scouting grade only
POWER20
scouting grade only
EYE20
scouting grade only
SPEED40
scouting grade only
Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status   MiLB
MLB Debut   2032
Service   0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through   2037
First FA Year   2038
YearStatusSalary Proj WAR Value Surplus
2027MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031MiLBstill in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032Pre-Arb$0.9M———
2033Pre-Arb$0.9M———
2034Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037Extbeyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals $0.0M $-0.5M +$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.
basis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

YearAge LvlTeam MLB% PAAB H2B3BHR BBSOHBP SBCS AVGOBPSLGOPS ISOBABIP K%BB% wOBAwRC+ BATRUNFLDPOSREP WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
202216 ROKDSL Tampa Bay — 8574 18300 9112 11 243341284625 41286 1311 296 29 — — — — — —
202317 ROKDSL Rays — 4946 17400 250 21 370396457852 87405 104 373 54 — — — — — —
202418 ROKFCL Rays — 176149 44720 161010 31 295400369769 74314 69 355 70 — — — — — —
202519 ACharleston RiverDogs — 332307 761000 16497 40 248299280579 33293 155 268 42 — — — — — —
202620 A+Bowling Green Hot Rods — 7468 14201 1201 00 206229279508 74271 271 217 8 — — — — — —
202620 ACharleston RiverDogs — 9996 31502 2201 10 323343438781 115392 202 348 73 — — — — — —
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
202216 ROK MLEDSL Tampa Bay — 8576 13200 7142 11 171259197456 26209 168 211 29 — — — — — —
202317 ROK MLEDSL Rays — 4947 11200 160 21 234250277527 43269 122 248 54 — — — — — —
202418 ROK MLEFCL Rays — 176155 37610 101510 31 239326290616 52255 96 272 70 — — — — — —
202519 A MLECharleston RiverDogs — 332312 691000 12667 40 221266253519 32275 204 230 42 — — — — — —
202620 A+ MLEBowling Green Hot Rods — 7468 13201 1261 00 191214265479 74240 351 180 8 — — — — — —
202620 A MLECharleston RiverDogs — 9997 25401 1271 10 258273330603 72357 271 276 73 — — — — — —
202216 ROK MLEDSL Tampa Bay — 8576 13200 7142 11 171259197456 26210 168 211 29 — — — — — —
202216 ROK RAWDSL Tampa Bay — 8574 18300 9112 11 243341284625 41286 1311 296 29 — — — — — —
202317 ROK MLEDSL Rays — 4947 11200 160 21 234250277527 43262 122 248 54 — — — — — —
202317 ROK RAWDSL Rays — 4946 17400 250 21 370396457852 87405 104 373 54 — — — — — —
202418 ROK MLEFCL Rays — 176155 37610 101510 31 239326290616 52262 96 272 70 — — — — — —
202418 ROK RAWFCL Rays — 176149 44720 161010 31 295400369769 74314 69 355 70 — — — — — —
202519 A MLECharleston RiverDogs — 332312 691000 12667 40 221266253519 32279 204 230 42 — — — — — —
202519 A RAWCharleston RiverDogs — 332307 761000 16497 40 248299280579 33293 155 268 42 — — — — — —
202620 A MLE2 teams — 173165 37502 2532 10 224243291534 67315 311 235 45 — — — — — —
202620 A RAW2 teams — 173164 45703 3402 10 274296372668 98344 232 292 45 — — — — — —
202216 ROK MLEDSL Tampa Bay — 8576 13200 7142 11 171259197456 26209 168 211 29 — — — — — —
202317 ROK MLEDSL Rays — 4948 11200 160 21 229250271521 42269 122 248 54 — — — — — —
202418 ROK MLEFCL Rays — 176154 37610 101510 31 240326292618 52255 96 272 70 — — — — — —
202519 A MLECharleston RiverDogs — 332310 691000 12667 40 223266255521 32275 204 230 42 — — — — — —
202620 A MLE2 teams — 173167 37502 2532 10 222243287530 66307 311 235 45 — — — — — —
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
202418 ROK MLEFCL Rays — 176154 37610 101510 31 240326292618 52255 96 272 70 — — — — — —
202519 A MLECharleston RiverDogs — 332310 691000 12667 40 223266255521 32275 204 230 42 — — — — — —
202620 A MLE2 teams — 173167 37502 2532 10 222243287530 66307 311 235 45 — — — — — —
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
202721 MLB MLETB 0% 283270 601212 7614 41 220250291541 72275 222 243 50 -17 +0 +0 +1 +6 -0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
202822 MLB MLETB 34% 153145 33612 5322 21 225258312570 87276 213 255 59 -8 +0 +0 +1 +3 -0.4
202923 MLB MLETB 48% 236223 511013 8503 31 229265327592 98278 213 264 65 -10 +0 +0 +1 +5 -0.4
203024 MLB MLETB 53% 319300 691315 12674 41 232270338609 106279 214 271 70 -12 +0 +0 +1 +7 -0.3
203125 MLB MLETB 55% 368346 811527 14775 51 234274345619 111280 214 276 73 -12 +1 +0 +1 +8 -0.2
203226 MLB MLETB 56% 396371 881728 17835 51 234276349625 114280 214 278 74 -12 +1 +0 +1 +9 -0.1
203327 MLB MLETB 55% 407382 901728 17865 51 233275346621 113280 214 277 73 -13 +1 +0 +1 +9 -0.2
202822 MLB CTXTB 34% 5350 12201 2111 10 227260313573 85279 214 256 59 -3 +0 +0 +0 +1 -0.1
202923 MLB CTXTB 48% 114108 26512 4241 20 232267328595 96281 214 266 65 -5 +0 +0 +0 +2 -0.1
203024 MLB CTXTB 53% 168158 38713 6352 21 235272339611 104283 214 272 70 -6 +0 +0 +1 +4 -0.2
203125 MLB CTXTB 55% 201189 45814 8422 31 236276345621 109283 214 277 73 -7 +0 +0 +1 +4 -0.1
203226 MLB CTXTB 56% 220206 49914 9463 31 236278349627 112283 214 279 74 -7 +0 +0 +1 +5 -0.1
203327 MLB CTXTB 55% 224210 49914 9473 31 235277346623 111283 214 278 73 -7 +0 +0 +1 +5 -0.1
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career— A+C — 980921 21940518 3820512 144 238277351628 113286 214 274 63 -34 +1 +0 +3 +21 -0.8
/ 162G— A+C — 650611 14527312 251368 93 237276350627 113285 214 274 63 -22 +1 +0 +2 +14 -0.5
Career— MLE — 27942618 6001071036 10857146 369 229272319591 90279 204 262 63 -72 +3 +0 +7 +43 -1.9
/ 162G— MLE — 650609 1392528 2513311 82 228271315587 87278 204 262 63 -24 +1 +0 +2 +14 -0.6

How the minor-league lines were translated

One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.

2026 ACharleston RiverDogs · 99 PAwOBA .338 → .276 (−62)K% 20.2% → 27.5%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA20.20%÷1.000×1.360——27.47%
BB% (unintentional) /PA2.02%÷1.000×0.690—×1.0151.41%
HBP% /PA1.01%—×0.780—×1.0150.80%
Singles /BIP31.58%÷1.000×0.920×0.997×1.01529.41%
Doubles /BIP6.58%÷1.000×0.830×0.997×1.0155.53%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.910×0.997×1.0150.00%
Home runs /BIP2.63%÷1.000×0.800—×1.0152.14%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.997.

Result: wOBA .338 → .276; ISO .115 → .087; BABIP .392 → .357. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2026 A+Bowling Green Hot Rods · 74 PAwOBA .214 → .180 (−34)K% 27.0% → 35.4%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA27.03%÷1.000×1.310——35.41%
BB% (unintentional) /PA1.35%÷1.000×0.600—×1.0270.83%
HBP% /PA1.35%—×0.770—×1.0271.07%
Singles /BIP22.92%÷1.000×0.870×1.010×1.02720.69%
Doubles /BIP4.17%÷1.000×0.780×1.010×1.0273.37%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.000×0.850×1.010×1.0270.00%
Home runs /BIP2.08%÷1.000×0.880—×1.0271.88%

Factors used: league row South Atlantic League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.010.

Result: wOBA .214 → .180; ISO .074 → .062; BABIP .271 → .240. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2025 ACharleston RiverDogs · 332 PAwOBA .262 → .230 (−32)K% 14.8% → 20.0%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA14.76%÷1.006×1.360——19.96%
BB% (unintentional) /PA4.82%÷0.985×0.690—×1.0303.48%
HBP% /PA2.11%—×0.780—×1.0301.69%
Singles /BIP25.58%÷1.013×0.920×0.994×1.03023.78%
Doubles /BIP3.88%÷0.850×0.830×0.994×1.0303.87%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.121×0.910×0.994×1.0300.00%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷1.159×0.800—×1.0300.00%

Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 132, 1B 103, 2B 70, 3B 124, K 101, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.994.

Result: wOBA .262 → .230; ISO .033 → .031; BABIP .293 → .275. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2024 ROKFCL Rays · 176 PAwOBA .348 → .272 (−76)K% 5.7% → 8.4%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA5.68%÷0.980×1.440——8.35%
BB% (unintentional) /PA9.09%÷1.024×0.620—×1.0085.54%
HBP% /PA5.68%—×0.720—×1.0084.12%
Singles /BIP25.18%÷1.024×0.820×1.022×1.00820.77%
Doubles /BIP5.04%÷0.941×0.720×1.022×1.0083.97%
Triples /BIP1.44%÷1.150×0.720×1.022×1.0080.93%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷1.002×0.780—×1.0080.00%

Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 100, 1B 105, 2B 88, 3B 130, K 96, BB 105 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.022.

Result: wOBA .348 → .272; ISO .074 → .056; BABIP .314 → .255. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2023 DSLDSL Rays · 49 PAwOBA .371 → .248 (−122)K% 10.2% → 12.6%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA10.20%÷0.987×1.220——12.62%
BB% (unintentional) /PA4.08%÷0.984×0.700—×1.0082.93%
HBP% /PA0.00%—×0.700—×1.0080.00%
Singles /BIP31.71%÷1.005×0.680—×1.00821.62%
Doubles /BIP9.76%÷0.993×0.600—×1.0085.94%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷1.035×0.600—×1.0080.00%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷0.938×0.470—×1.0080.00%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 88, 1B 101, 2B 99, 3B 107, K 97, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average).

Result: wOBA .371 → .248; ISO .087 → .053; BABIP .405 → .269. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).

2022 DSLDSL Tampa Bay · 85 PAwOBA .289 → .211 (−79)K% 12.9% → 16.2%
ComponentRawPark ÷Level factor ×GB/FB ×Age ×= MLE
K% /PA12.94%÷0.976×1.220——16.17%
BB% (unintentional) /PA10.59%÷0.985×0.700—×1.0227.69%
HBP% /PA2.35%—×0.700—×1.0221.68%
Singles /BIP23.81%÷0.981×0.680×1.050×1.02217.73%
Doubles /BIP4.76%÷0.973×0.600×1.050×1.0223.15%
Triples /BIP0.00%÷0.919×0.600×1.050×1.0220.00%
Home runs /BIP0.00%÷1.273×0.470—×1.0220.00%

Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 155, 1B 96, 2B 95, 3B 84, K 95, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.

Result: wOBA .289 → .211; ISO .041 → .027; BABIP .286 → .209. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).