Joantgel Segovia
| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 21 | A+/A2 orgs | 484 | .286/.351/.358 | 3 | 14 | 63 | — | .249/.298/.312 |
| 2019 | 22 | AA/A+2 orgs | 470 | .269/.333/.375 | 7 | 14 | 56 | — | .222/.267/.304 |
| 2020 | 23 | INTLCardenales de… | 44 | .179/.256/.359 | 1 | 0 | 68 | — |
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2014 | 17 | ROK | DSL Brewers | — | 259 | 224 | 86 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 24 | 19 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 384 | 459 | 446 | 905 | 62 | 417 | 7 | 9 | 405 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 18 | ROK | Helena Brewers | — | 132 | 118 | 39 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 18 | 2 | 10 | 8 | 331 | 392 | 347 | 740 | 17 | 390 | 14 | 8 | 337 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 19 | ROK | Helena Brewers | — | 243 | 211 | 62 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 24 | 23 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 294 | 371 | 327 | 698 | 33 | 328 | 9 | 10 | 317 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 20 | A | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | — | 444 | 413 | 91 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 67 | 2 | 11 | 2 | 220 | 263 | 254 | 517 | 34 | 259 | 15 | 5 | 235 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 21 | A+ | Carolina Mudcats | — | 261 | 228 | 53 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 24 | 42 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 232 | 311 | 285 | 596 | 53 | 278 | 16 | 9 | 271 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 21 | A | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | — | 223 | 202 | 70 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 29 | 4 | 12 | 5 | 347 | 397 | 441 | 838 | 94 | 398 | 13 | 6 | 370 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | AA | Biloxi Shuckers | — | 276 | 255 | 63 | 15 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 38 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 247 | 296 | 329 | 625 | 82 | 281 | 14 | 5 | 282 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A+ | Carolina Mudcats | — | 194 | 169 | 51 | 9 | 0 | 5 | 22 | 35 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 302 | 387 | 444 | 830 | 142 | 357 | 18 | 11 | 372 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2020 | 23 | INTL | Cardenales de Lara | — | 44 | 39 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 179 | 256 | 359 | 615 | 179 | 261 | 36 | 7 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2014 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Brewers | — | 259 | 231 | 64 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 17 | 23 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 277 | 345 | 320 | 665 | 43 | 296 | 9 | 7 | 289 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 18 | ROK MLE | Helena Brewers | — | 132 | 122 | 34 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 26 | 2 | 10 | 8 | 279 | 323 | 295 | 618 | 16 | 336 | 20 | 5 | 265 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 19 | ROK MLE | Helena Brewers | — | 243 | 220 | 54 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 33 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 245 | 300 | 268 | 568 | 23 | 277 | 14 | 6 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 20 | A MLE | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | — | 444 | 421 | 85 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 91 | 2 | 11 | 2 | 202 | 231 | 233 | 464 | 31 | 245 | 20 | 3 | 201 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 21 | A+ MLE | Carolina Mudcats | — | 261 | 237 | 47 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 62 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 198 | 252 | 245 | 497 | 46 | 245 | 24 | 6 | 215 | 32 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 21 | A MLE | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | — | 223 | 205 | 63 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 41 | 4 | 12 | 5 | 307 | 352 | 390 | 742 | 83 | 367 | 18 | 4 | 315 | 99 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | AA MLE | Biloxi Shuckers | — | 276 | 261 | 56 | 12 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 47 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 215 | 252 | 284 | 535 | 69 | 249 | 17 | 4 | 233 | 44 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | A+ MLE | Carolina Mudcats | — | 194 | 180 | 42 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 51 | 2 | 8 | 2 | 233 | 289 | 333 | 622 | 100 | 306 | 26 | 6 | 278 | 74 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Brewers | — | 259 | 231 | 64 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 17 | 23 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 277 | 345 | 320 | 665 | 43 | 306 | 9 | 7 | 289 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL Brewers | — | 259 | 224 | 86 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 24 | 19 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 384 | 459 | 446 | 905 | 62 | 417 | 7 | 9 | 405 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 18 | ROK MLE | Helena Brewers | — | 132 | 122 | 34 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 26 | 2 | 10 | 8 | 279 | 323 | 295 | 618 | 16 | 354 | 20 | 5 | 265 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 18 | ROK RAW | Helena Brewers | — | 132 | 118 | 39 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 18 | 2 | 10 | 8 | 331 | 392 | 347 | 740 | 17 | 390 | 14 | 8 | 337 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 19 | ROK MLE | Helena Brewers | — | 243 | 220 | 54 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 33 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 245 | 300 | 268 | 568 | 23 | 287 | 14 | 6 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 19 | ROK RAW | Helena Brewers | — | 243 | 211 | 62 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 24 | 23 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 294 | 371 | 327 | 698 | 33 | 328 | 9 | 10 | 317 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 20 | A MLE | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | — | 444 | 421 | 85 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 91 | 2 | 11 | 2 | 202 | 231 | 233 | 464 | 31 | 254 | 20 | 3 | 201 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 20 | A RAW | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | — | 444 | 413 | 91 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 67 | 2 | 11 | 2 | 220 | 263 | 254 | 517 | 34 | 259 | 15 | 5 | 235 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 21 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 484 | 443 | 108 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 24 | 102 | 6 | 14 | 6 | 244 | 292 | 296 | 587 | 52 | 311 | 21 | 5 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 21 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 484 | 430 | 123 | 16 | 3 | 3 | 37 | 71 | 6 | 14 | 6 | 286 | 351 | 358 | 709 | 72 | 335 | 15 | 8 | 317 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 470 | 441 | 98 | 18 | 0 | 6 | 22 | 99 | 5 | 14 | 8 | 222 | 267 | 304 | 571 | 82 | 272 | 21 | 5 | 252 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | AA RAW | 2 teams | — | 470 | 424 | 114 | 24 | 0 | 7 | 37 | 73 | 5 | 14 | 8 | 269 | 333 | 375 | 708 | 106 | 309 | 16 | 8 | 319 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2020 | 23 | INTL MLE | Cardenales de Lara | — | 44 | 39 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 179 | 256 | 359 | 615 | 179 | 261 | 36 | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2020 | 23 | INTL RAW | Cardenales de Lara | — | 44 | 39 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 179 | 256 | 359 | 615 | 179 | 261 | 36 | 7 | 268 | 68 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2014 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Brewers | — | 259 | 233 | 64 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 17 | 23 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 275 | 345 | 318 | 663 | 43 | 296 | 9 | 7 | 289 | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2015 | 18 | ROK MLE | Helena Brewers | — | 132 | 123 | 34 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 26 | 2 | 10 | 8 | 276 | 323 | 293 | 616 | 16 | 336 | 20 | 5 | 265 | 65 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2016 | 19 | ROK MLE | Helena Brewers | — | 243 | 224 | 54 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 33 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 241 | 300 | 263 | 563 | 22 | 277 | 14 | 6 | 250 | 55 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2017 | 20 | A MLE | Wisconsin Timber Rattlers | — | 444 | 425 | 85 | 10 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 91 | 2 | 11 | 2 | 200 | 231 | 231 | 462 | 31 | 245 | 20 | 3 | 201 | 22 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2018 | 21 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 484 | 451 | 108 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 24 | 102 | 6 | 14 | 6 | 239 | 292 | 290 | 582 | 51 | 301 | 21 | 5 | 261 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2019 | 22 | AA MLE | 2 teams | — | 470 | 440 | 98 | 18 | 0 | 6 | 22 | 99 | 5 | 14 | 8 | 223 | 267 | 305 | 572 | 82 | 273 | 21 | 5 | 252 | 56 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | MLE | — | 2076 | 1917 | 450 | 54 | 6 | 10 | 101 | 390 | 25 | 57 | 39 | 235 | 282 | 285 | 567 | 50 | 288 | 19 | 5 | 243 | 51 | -122 | -4 | +0 | +7 | +45 | -7.5 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 600 | 141 | 17 | 2 | 3 | 32 | 122 | 8 | 18 | 12 | 235 | 283 | 285 | 568 | 50 | 289 | 19 | 5 | 243 | 51 | -38 | -1 | +0 | +2 | +14 | -2.3 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2019 AABiloxi Shuckers · 276 PAwOBA .275 → .233 (−41)K% 13.8% → 17.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.77% | ÷0.975 | ×1.220 | — | — | 17.22% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.07% | ÷1.006 | ×0.680 | — | ×1.027 | 3.52% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.09% | — | ×0.840 | — | ×1.027 | 0.94% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.20% | ÷0.984 | ×0.920 | ×0.950 | ×1.027 | 19.33% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.91% | ÷1.092 | ×0.910 | ×0.950 | ×1.027 | 5.62% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.124 | ×0.880 | ×0.950 | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.92% | ÷1.018 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 0.74% |
Factors used: league row SL. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 104, 1B 97, 2B 118, 3B 125, K 95, BB 101 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 24.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .275 → .233; ISO .082 → .067; BABIP .281 → .249. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2019 A+Carolina Mudcats · 194 PAwOBA .360 → .278 (−82)K% 18.0% → 26.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 18.04% | ÷0.967 | ×1.420 | — | — | 26.48% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.31% | ÷1.010 | ×0.630 | — | ×0.998 | 6.41% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.03% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×0.998 | 0.88% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.61% | ÷0.978 | ×0.940 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 25.15% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.72% | ÷1.183 | ×0.830 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 4.47% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.096 | ×0.800 | ×0.950 | ×0.998 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.73% | ÷1.082 | ×0.900 | — | ×0.998 | 3.10% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 116, 1B 96, 2B 137, 3B 119, K 93, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 23 vs a level average of 22.8 → −0.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.2 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .360 → .278; ISO .142 → .105; BABIP .357 → .306. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 A+Carolina Mudcats · 261 PAwOBA .265 → .215 (−50)K% 16.1% → 23.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 16.09% | ÷0.970 | ×1.420 | — | — | 23.55% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 8.81% | ÷0.990 | ×0.630 | — | ×1.012 | 5.67% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.77% | — | ×0.860 | — | ×1.012 | 0.67% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.19% | ÷1.066 | ×0.940 | ×1.008 | ×1.012 | 21.77% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.69% | ÷1.150 | ×0.830 | ×1.008 | ×1.012 | 1.98% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.08% | ÷0.979 | ×0.800 | ×1.008 | ×1.012 | 0.90% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.54% | ÷1.010 | ×0.900 | — | ×1.012 | 0.49% |
Factors used: league row CAR. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 102, 1B 113, 2B 130, 3B 96, K 94, BB 98 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.008.
Result: wOBA .265 → .215; ISO .053 → .042; BABIP .278 → .245. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2018 AWisconsin Timber Rattlers · 223 PAwOBA .361 → .315 (−46)K% 13.0% → 18.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.00% | ÷0.967 | ×1.360 | — | — | 18.29% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 5.83% | ÷0.946 | ×0.690 | — | — | 4.25% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.79% | — | ×0.780 | — | — | 1.40% |
| Singles /BIP | 32.37% | ÷0.998 | ×0.920 | ×1.015 | — | 30.31% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.36% | ÷0.957 | ×0.830 | ×1.015 | — | 5.60% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.58% | ÷1.112 | ×0.910 | ×1.015 | — | 0.48% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.16% | ÷1.019 | ×0.800 | — | — | 0.91% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 104, 1B 100, 2B 91, 3B 122, K 93, BB 89 — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.015.
Result: wOBA .361 → .315; ISO .094 → .078; BABIP .398 → .367. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2017 AWisconsin Timber Rattlers · 444 PAwOBA .229 → .201 (−28)K% 15.1% → 20.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 15.09% | ÷1.008 | ×1.360 | — | — | 20.35% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 4.73% | ÷1.082 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 3.06% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.45% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 0.36% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.83% | ÷0.974 | ×0.920 | ×0.996 | ×1.015 | 21.81% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.18% | ÷0.940 | ×0.830 | ×0.996 | ×1.015 | 2.84% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.081 | ×0.910 | ×0.996 | ×1.015 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.29% | ÷1.164 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 0.20% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 133, 1B 95, 2B 88, 3B 116, K 102, BB 116 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.996.
Result: wOBA .229 → .201; ISO .034 → .028; BABIP .259 → .245. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2016 ROKHelena Brewers · 243 PAwOBA .310 → .250 (−60)K% 9.5% → 13.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 9.47% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 13.63% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.88% | ÷1.000 | ×0.610 | — | ×0.995 | 5.99% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.82% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 0.59% |
| Singles /BIP | 29.26% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | ×1.050 | ×0.995 | 25.06% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.72% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×1.050 | ×0.995 | 2.80% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×1.050 | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.750 | — | ×0.995 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row PIO. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .310 → .250; ISO .033 → .026; BABIP .328 → .277. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2015 ROKHelena Brewers · 132 PAwOBA .329 → .265 (−64)K% 13.6% → 19.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 13.64% | ÷1.000 | ×1.440 | — | — | 19.64% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.58% | ÷1.000 | ×0.610 | — | ×1.008 | 4.66% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.52% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 1.10% |
| Singles /BIP | 37.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | ×1.050 | ×1.008 | 32.10% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×1.050 | ×1.008 | 1.52% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.720 | ×1.050 | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.750 | — | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row PIO. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .329 → .265; ISO .017 → .013; BABIP .390 → .336. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2014 DSLDSL Brewers · 259 PAwOBA .396 → .289 (−107)K% 7.3% → 8.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 7.34% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 8.95% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.27% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 6.54% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.70% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.008 | 1.91% |
| Singles /BIP | 37.07% | ÷1.000 | ×0.680 | ×1.050 | ×1.008 | 26.67% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.93% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | ×1.050 | ×1.008 | 1.86% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.95% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | ×1.050 | ×1.008 | 1.24% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 18.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.050.
Result: wOBA .396 → .289; ISO .062 → .041; BABIP .417 → .296. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
Not traceable per stint: some stints lack the counting stats the component translation needs. Level-wide factors that apply instead — .