Francis Peña
P
San Antonio Missions
Age 25
RHP
6'1" / 170 lbs
AA
2026 ROS PROJECTION37 act + 70 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 134124vR 115
ERA5.08
FIP5.08
K%18.9%
BB%14.3%
K-BB%4.7%
ROS IP70
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 107 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 21 | ROK | DSL Padres | 14 | 0 | 23 | 114 | 19 | 14 | 2 | 0% | 1.6 | 11.3% | 15.4% | -4.0% | 2.6% | 7.43 | 5.51 | — |
| 2022 | 21 | ROK | DSL Padres | 14 | 0 | 23 | 114 | 19 | 14 | 2 | 0% | 1.6 | 16.7% | 12.3% | 4.4% | 1.8% | 7.43 | 4.40 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 23 | 0 | 35 | 151 | 40 | 10 | 1 | 0% | 1.5 | 18.4% | 7.6% | 10.8% | 1.2% | 2.34 | 3.15 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | MIX | 3 levels | 23 | 0 | 35 | 151 | 40 | 10 | 1 | 0% | 1.5 | 26.5% | 6.6% | 19.9% | 0.7% | 2.34 | 2.03 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 45 | 0 | 63 | 255 | 64 | 18 | 3 | 0% | 1.4 | 20.5% | 7.8% | 12.7% | 1.3% | 2.43 | 3.05 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | MIX | 3 levels | 45 | 0 | 63 | 255 | 64 | 18 | 3 | 0% | 1.4 | 25.1% | 7.1% | 18.0% | 1.2% | 2.43 | 2.54 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AAA | El Paso Chihuahuas | 43 | 0 | 52 | 237 | 47 | 34 | 4 | 0% | 1.2 | 17.5% | 15.1% | 2.4% | 1.9% | 4.99 | 4.59 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AAA | El Paso Chihuahuas | 43 | 0 | 52 | 237 | 47 | 34 | 4 | 0% | 1.2 | 19.8% | 14.3% | 5.5% | 1.7% | 4.99 | 4.25 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | AA | San Antonio Missions | 26 | 1 | 37 | 167 | 49 | 29 | 1 | 4% | 1.4 | 23.8% | 19.1% | 4.7% | 0.7% | 3.13 | 3.91 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | SD | 67 | 0 | 70 | 296 | 56 | 42 | 7 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.9% | 14.3% | 4.7% | 2.5% | 5.08 | 5.08 | -0.3 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | SD | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.9% | 14.3% | 4.7% | 2.5% | 5.08 | 5.08 | -0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 25 | MLB | SD | — | — | 107 | 463 | 105 | 71 | 8 | — | — | 22.7% | 15.4% | 7.3% | 1.8% | 4.40 | 4.67 | +0.9 |
| 2026 FULL | 25 | MLB | SD | — | — | 1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | — | — | 18.9% | 14.3% | 4.7% | 2.5% | 5.08 | 4.70 | -0.0 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | SD | 67 | 0 | 70 | 296 | 59 | 41 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.1% | 13.7% | 6.4% | 2.6% | 4.96 | 4.94 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | SD | 66 | 0 | 69 | 291 | 59 | 39 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.3% | 13.5% | 6.9% | 2.7% | 4.92 | 4.93 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | SD | 64 | 0 | 67 | 282 | 57 | 38 | 8 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.3% | 13.4% | 7.0% | 2.8% | 4.95 | 4.98 | -0.2 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | SD | 30 | 0 | 31 | 131 | 26 | 18 | 3 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.1% | 13.7% | 6.4% | 2.6% | 4.96 | 4.94 | -0.1 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | SD | 42 | 0 | 44 | 186 | 38 | 25 | 5 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.3% | 13.5% | 6.9% | 2.7% | 4.92 | 4.93 | -0.2 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | SD | 49 | 0 | 51 | 215 | 44 | 29 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 20.3% | 13.4% | 7.0% | 2.8% | 4.95 | 4.98 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 120 | 0 | 126 | 534 | 108 | 72 | 14 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.3% | 13.5% | 6.8% | 2.7% | 4.94 | 4.57 | +1.2 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 171 | 114 | 22 | 0% | 1.1 | 20.3% | 13.5% | 6.8% | 2.7% | 4.94 | 4.57 | +1.9 | ||
| Career | — | 151 | 1 | 210 | 924 | 174 | 116 | 14 | 1% | 1.4 | 18.8% | 12.6% | 6.2% | 1.5% | 3.72 | 3.92 | +3.6 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 144 | 1 | 200 | 879 | 165 | 111 | 13 | 1% | 1.4 | 18.8% | 12.6% | 6.2% | 1.5% | 3.72 | 3.92 | +3.5 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Francis Peña (OGILVIE) | — | — | 5.08 | 18.9% | 14.3% | 2.5% | — | 4.95 | 20.2% | 6.7% | 206 | -0.13 | — | — | — |
| Kevin Kopps R 2026 · 4.78 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.78 | 20.2% | 15.1% | 2.7% | .278 | 4.59 | 16.5% | 2.8% | 182 | -0.19 | 3.64 | 237 | 92 |
| Nolan Riggs R 2026 · 4.61 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.61 | 20.7% | 14.0% | 2.7% | .300 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.36 | 132 | 92 |
| Chase Plymell R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.21 | 19.2% | 13.0% | 2.0% | .330 | 4.58 | 14.2% | 5.4% | 162 | +0.37 | 3.79 | 291 | 89 |
| Zane Morehouse R 2026 · 4.86 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.86 | 19.3% | 15.8% | 2.5% | .321 | 6.20 | 18.6% | -0.4% | 17 | +1.34 | 2.62 | 116 | 89 |
| Holt Jones R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.46 | 19.0% | 15.0% | 1.9% | .326 | 4.33 | 22.0% | 5.9% | 87 | -0.13 | 4.13 | 217 | 88 |
| Armando Rivero R 2028 · 4.39 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.39 | 18.7% | 13.5% | 2.1% | .256 | 2.81 | 32.9% | 19.8% | 68 | -1.58 | 2.81 | 125 | 88 |
| Dylan Hall R 2026 · 4.02 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.02 | 21.0% | 13.2% | 1.9% | .305 | 7.93 | 15.1% | 2.4% | 58 | +3.91 | 3.54 | 153 | 88 |
| Nick Ernst R 2026 · 4.99 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.99 | 21.9% | 14.6% | 3.4% | .275 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.54 | 117 | 88 |
| Gonzalez Germen R 2028 · 4.11 FIP | 27 | SU | 4.11 | 18.0% | 12.5% | 1.7% | .296 | 3.74 | 19.2% | 8.3% | 54 | -0.37 | 3.74 | 146 | 87 |
| Carlos Contreras R 2025 · 4.30 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.30 | 22.2% | 15.6% | 2.0% | .271 | 4.65 | 11.9% | 2.4% | 40 | +0.35 | 4.30 | 107 | 87 |
| Billy Seidl R 2025 · 4.87 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.87 | 18.3% | 14.2% | 2.8% | .250 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.34 | 102 | 87 |
| Alec Barger R 2026 · 4.39 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.39 | 21.5% | 14.4% | 2.3% | .326 | 4.55 | 18.6% | 7.5% | 79 | +0.16 | 3.96 | 242 | 87 |
| Jeff Ames R 2026 · 5.06 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.06 | 18.0% | 16.1% | 2.6% | .229 | 4.27 | 25.2% | 11.2% | 142 | -0.79 | 3.89 | 272 | 87 |
| Merrick Baldo R 2026 · 4.55 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.55 | 18.3% | 12.3% | 2.6% | .299 | 3.57 | 14.7% | 8.1% | 38 | -0.98 | 2.69 | 154 | 86 |
| Grant Sides R 2027 · 4.01 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.01 | 17.2% | 13.2% | 1.2% | .266 | 3.89 | 22.4% | 10.5% | 62 | -0.12 | 3.24 | 159 | 86 |
| Matt Lollis R 2026 · 5.05 FIP | 25 | SU | 5.05 | 19.2% | 14.5% | 3.2% | .221 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.59 | 120 | 86 |
| Juan Paniagua R 2026 · 4.75 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.75 | 15.7% | 11.9% | 2.7% | .262 | 4.62 | 16.2% | 1.8% | 93 | -0.13 | 4.51 | 151 | 86 |
| LJ McDonough R 2026 · 4.32 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.32 | 18.5% | 12.6% | 2.1% | .340 | 5.41 | 24.3% | 3.8% | 29 | +1.09 | 4.32 | 114 | 86 |
| Ryan Conroy R 2026 · 4.73 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.73 | 19.3% | 12.6% | 3.0% | .361 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.86 | 106 | 86 |
| Jake Gilbert R 2026 · 4.59 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.59 | 18.2% | 16.2% | 1.8% | .331 | — | — | — | — | — | 4.18 | 103 | 86 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 4 | 69 | 19.9% | 13.7% | 1.02 | 4.98 |
| Fernando Rodney ('19) | 5 | 59 | 24.6% | 11.8% | 0.88 | 4.21 |
| John Gant ('21) | 4 | 85 | 20.1% | 12.5% | 0.79 | 3.91 |
| Miguel Castro ('23) | 7 | 59 | 20.8% | 12.0% | 1.04 | 3.99 |
| Tyler Chatwood ('21) | 5 | 104 | 19.2% | 13.3% | 0.94 | 4.48 |
| Daniel Bard ('23) | 4 | 50 | 25.1% | 13.5% | 0.81 | 3.82 |
| Greg Holland ('21) | 6 | 45 | 25.4% | 12.3% | 0.87 | 4.03 |