Francis Peña — OGILVIE

Francis Peña P San Antonio Missions

Age 25 RHP 6'1" / 170 lbs AA

2026 ROS PROJECTION59 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 126118vR 110

ERA4.89

FIP4.89

K%18.1%

BB%12.3%

K-BB%5.8%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 65 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

OFP—40

STUF4050

CTRL3545

CMD3535

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	21	ROK MLE	DSL Padres	14	0	23	114	19	14	2	0%	1.6	11.3%	15.4%	-4.0%	2.5%	7.43	5.47	—
2022	21	ROK RAW	DSL Padres	14	0	23	114	19	14	2	0%	1.6	16.7%	12.3%	4.4%	1.8%	7.43	4.40	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	23	0	35	151	40	10	1	0%	1.5	18.4%	7.6%	10.8%	1.1%	2.34	3.09	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	3 levels	23	0	35	151	40	10	1	0%	1.5	18.4%	7.6%	10.8%	1.1%	2.34	3.09	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	3 levels	23	0	35	151	40	10	1	0%	1.5	26.5%	6.6%	19.9%	0.7%	2.34	2.03	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	45	0	63	255	64	18	3	0%	1.4	20.2%	7.4%	12.8%	1.3%	2.43	3.05	—
2024	23	MIX MLE	3 levels	45	0	63	255	64	18	3	0%	1.4	20.2%	7.4%	12.8%	1.3%	2.43	3.05	—
2024	23	MIX RAW	3 levels	45	0	63	255	64	18	3	0%	1.4	25.1%	7.1%	18.0%	1.2%	2.43	2.54	—
2025	24	AAA MLE	El Paso Chihuahuas	43	0	52	237	47	34	4	0%	1.2	16.5%	12.9%	3.5%	1.9%	4.99	4.38	—
2025	24	AAA MLE	El Paso Chihuahuas	43	0	52	237	47	34	4	0%	1.2	16.5%	12.9%	3.5%	1.9%	4.99	4.38	—
2025	24	AAA RAW	El Paso Chihuahuas	43	0	52	237	47	34	4	0%	1.2	19.8%	14.3%	5.5%	1.7%	4.99	4.25	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	AA MLE	San Antonio Missions	42	1	59	262	71	36	3	2%	1.4	22.0%	15.1%	6.8%	1.4%	3.05	3.92	—
YTD	25	AA MLE	San Antonio Missions	42	1	59	262	71	36	3	2%	1.4	22.0%	15.1%	6.8%	1.4%	3.05	3.92	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	AA RAW	SD	42	1	59	262	71	36	3	2%	1.4	27.1%	13.7%	13.4%	1.1%	3.05	3.18	—
ROS	25	MLB MLE	SD	6	0	6	27	5	3	1	0%	1.1	18.1%	12.3%	5.8%	2.5%	4.89	4.89	-0.0
2026 TOT	25	MLB MLE	SD	—	—	65	289	76	39	4	—	—	26.3%	13.6%	12.7%	1.3%	3.23	4.01	+0.5
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	SD	67	0	70	296	58	35	8	0%	1.0	19.5%	11.9%	7.6%	2.6%	4.79	4.76	-0.2
2028	27	MLB MLE	SD	66	0	69	291	58	34	8	0%	1.0	19.8%	11.8%	8.0%	2.7%	4.76	4.76	-0.2
2029	28	MLB MLE	SD	64	0	67	282	56	33	8	0%	1.0	19.8%	11.8%	8.0%	2.8%	4.79	4.83	-0.2
2030	29	MLB MLE	SD	61	0	64	270	53	32	8	0%	1.0	19.7%	12.0%	7.7%	2.9%	4.88	4.94	-0.3
2027	26	MLB CTX	SD	30	0	31	131	26	16	3	0%	1.0	19.5%	11.9%	7.6%	2.6%	4.79	4.76	-0.1
2028	27	MLB CTX	SD	42	0	44	186	37	22	5	0%	1.0	19.8%	11.8%	8.0%	2.7%	4.76	4.76	-0.1
2029	28	MLB CTX	SD	49	0	51	215	43	25	6	0%	1.0	19.8%	11.8%	8.0%	2.8%	4.79	4.83	-0.2
2030	29	MLB CTX	SD	50	0	52	220	43	26	6	0%	1.0	19.7%	12.0%	7.7%	2.9%	4.88	4.94	-0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		169	0	177	748	148	89	21	0%	1.0	19.7%	11.9%	7.8%	2.8%	4.81	4.45	+0.2
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	167	100	24	0%	1.1	19.7%	11.9%	7.8%	2.8%	4.81	4.45	+0.2
Career	—	MLE		167	1	232	1019	189	118	16	1%	1.4	18.5%	11.6%	6.9%	1.6%	3.65	3.86	-0.9
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		144	1	200	878	163	102	14	1%	1.4	18.5%	11.6%	6.9%	1.6%	3.65	3.86	-0.6

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Francis Peña (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.89	18.1%	12.3%	2.5%	—	4.78	19.7%	7.8%	206	-0.11	—	—	—
Max Alba R 2023 · 4.47 FIP	24	SU	4.47	20.6%	12.6%	2.7%	.290	5.15	16.7%	9.9%	244	+0.68	4.47	299	91
Chase Plymell R 2023 · 4.23 FIP	25	SU	4.23	19.2%	13.0%	2.0%	.330	4.53	13.6%	5.9%	162	+0.30	3.85	291	90
Nolan Riggs R 2018 · 4.49 FIP	25	SU	4.49	20.7%	14.0%	2.5%	.300	—	—	—	—	—	2.36	132	90
Gonzalez Germen R 2015 · 4.24 FIP	27	SU	4.24	18.0%	12.5%	1.9%	.296	3.88	19.2%	8.3%	54	-0.36	3.70	146	90
Juan Paniagua R 2015 · 4.69 FIP	25	SU	4.69	15.7%	11.9%	2.6%	.262	4.63	16.2%	1.8%	93	-0.06	4.57	151	89
David Goforth R 2015 · 3.98 FIP	26	SU	3.98	17.4%	9.8%	2.0%	.287	4.58	14.1%	3.6%	184	+0.60	3.98	256	89
Alex Palsha R 2017 · 3.95 FIP	25	SU	3.95	16.0%	10.9%	1.5%	.293	3.40	12.8%	1.8%	17	-0.55	3.40	134	88
Confesor Lara R 2016 · 4.26 FIP	25	SU	4.26	16.4%	11.0%	2.1%	.329	—	—	—	—	—	3.74	111	88
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	88
Kevin Kopps R 2022 · 4.56 FIP	25	SU	4.56	20.2%	15.1%	2.3%	.278	4.42	16.0%	3.7%	182	-0.14	3.46	237	87
Dylan Hall R 2023 · 3.98 FIP	25	SU	3.98	21.0%	13.2%	1.8%	.305	7.24	15.1%	2.4%	58	+3.26	3.47	153	87
Scott Oberg R 2015 · 4.96 FIP	25	SU	4.96	17.0%	11.2%	3.4%	.273	2.92	22.8%	15.6%	188	-2.04	2.54	302	87
Armando Rivero R 2015 · 4.29 FIP	27	SU	4.29	18.7%	13.5%	1.9%	.256	2.70	32.9%	19.8%	68	-1.59	2.70	125	87
Ryan Ledbetter R 2016 · 4.76 FIP	24	SU	4.76	18.5%	12.3%	3.0%	.338	—	—	—	—	—	4.76	124	87
José Ramírez R 2015 · 3.99 FIP	25	SU	3.99	19.5%	12.2%	1.8%	.312	3.91	22.4%	11.8%	136	-0.08	3.36	206	87
Ryan Conroy R 2022 · 4.75 FIP	25	SU	4.75	19.3%	12.6%	3.1%	.361	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	106	87
Brad Goldberg R 2015 · 4.07 FIP	25	SU	4.07	18.2%	11.7%	1.9%	.333	3.86	21.4%	7.2%	139	-0.21	3.14	197	87
Jason Ruffcorn R 2023 · 4.02 FIP	25	SU	4.02	17.8%	10.7%	1.9%	.315	4.20	18.5%	8.7%	173	+0.18	4.01	280	86
Nefi Ogando R 2015 · 3.87 FIP	26	SU	3.87	17.0%	11.6%	1.4%	.266	4.11	14.7%	3.1%	40	+0.24	3.87	103	86
Jacob Bosiokovic R 2019 · 3.84 FIP	25	SU	3.84	17.2%	9.8%	1.7%	.289	4.21	24.7%	12.1%	62	+0.37	3.84	181	86

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	68	19.4%	12.0%	1.04	4.82
Miguel Castro ('23)	2.1	59	20.8%	12.0%	1.04	3.99
José Ruiz ('24)	1.3	52	22.2%	10.4%	1.41	4.41
Junior Guerra ('21)	2.5	84	21.3%	11.0%	1.16	4.04
John Gant ('21)	1.7	85	20.1%	12.5%	0.79	3.91
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Steven Brault ('21)	1.7	57	18.8%	11.3%	1.00	4.77