Yerald Nin
2B Hillsboro Hops| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 18 | ROKARI | 211 | .269/.388/.326 | 0 | 23 | 41 | — | .186/.268/.218 |
| 2025 | 19 | AARI | 457 | .246/.335/.305 | 1 | 31 | 49 | — | .210/.277/.261 |
| 2026 | 20 | A+/AARI | 477 | .256/.332/.346 | 4 | 35 | 54 | — | .215/.275/.284 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 21 | MLBARI | 1 | .203/.266/.270 | 0 | 0 | 47 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ35% MLB | 22 | MLBARI | 152 | .210/.274/.292 | 1 | 6 | 56 | -0.4 | |
| 2029PROJ49% MLB | 23 | MLBARI | 236 | .216/.281/.312 | 3 | 8 | 64 | -0.4 |
Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 20
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 16 | ROK | DSL D-backs Black | — | 190 | 165 | 38 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 22 | 41 | 2 | 13 | 4 | 230 | 328 | 333 | 661 | 103 | 287 | 22 | 12 | 304 | 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 17 | ROK | ACL D-backs Black | — | 183 | 161 | 34 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 14 | 51 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 211 | 282 | 273 | 556 | 62 | 296 | 28 | 8 | 249 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK | ACL D-backs | — | 211 | 175 | 47 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 32 | 53 | 2 | 23 | 4 | 269 | 388 | 326 | 713 | 57 | 379 | 25 | 15 | 332 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | A | Visalia Rawhide | — | 457 | 394 | 97 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 49 | 102 | 4 | 31 | 12 | 246 | 335 | 305 | 639 | 58 | 323 | 22 | 11 | 292 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A+ | Hillsboro Hops | — | 270 | 237 | 57 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 27 | 60 | 1 | 22 | 6 | 241 | 318 | 333 | 652 | 93 | 307 | 22 | 10 | 294 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A | Visalia Rawhide | — | 207 | 185 | 51 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 20 | 49 | 1 | 13 | 4 | 276 | 350 | 362 | 712 | 86 | 370 | 24 | 10 | 323 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 16 | ROK MLE | DSL D-backs Black | — | 190 | 170 | 24 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 51 | 2 | 13 | 4 | 141 | 228 | 206 | 433 | 65 | 185 | 27 | 9 | 195 | 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 17 | ROK MLE | ACL D-backs Black | — | 183 | 166 | 24 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 71 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 145 | 198 | 187 | 384 | 42 | 220 | 39 | 5 | 169 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK MLE | ACL D-backs | — | 211 | 188 | 35 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 19 | 79 | 2 | 23 | 4 | 186 | 268 | 218 | 486 | 32 | 315 | 37 | 9 | 229 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | A MLE | Visalia Rawhide | — | 457 | 410 | 86 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 34 | 141 | 4 | 31 | 12 | 210 | 277 | 261 | 538 | 51 | 300 | 31 | 7 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A+ MLE | Hillsboro Hops | — | 270 | 246 | 50 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 20 | 81 | 1 | 22 | 6 | 203 | 266 | 268 | 534 | 65 | 286 | 30 | 7 | 243 | 51 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A MLE | Visalia Rawhide | — | 207 | 191 | 44 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 67 | 1 | 13 | 4 | 230 | 286 | 304 | 590 | 73 | 340 | 32 | 7 | 255 | 59 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 16 | ROK MLE | DSL D-backs Black | — | 190 | 170 | 24 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 51 | 2 | 13 | 4 | 141 | 228 | 206 | 433 | 65 | 186 | 27 | 9 | 195 | 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 16 | ROK RAW | DSL D-backs Black | — | 190 | 165 | 38 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 22 | 41 | 2 | 13 | 4 | 230 | 328 | 333 | 661 | 103 | 287 | 22 | 12 | 304 | 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 17 | ROK MLE | ACL D-backs Black | — | 183 | 166 | 24 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 71 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 145 | 198 | 187 | 384 | 42 | 240 | 39 | 5 | 169 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 17 | ROK RAW | ACL D-backs Black | — | 183 | 161 | 34 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 14 | 51 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 211 | 282 | 273 | 556 | 62 | 296 | 28 | 8 | 249 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK MLE | ACL D-backs | — | 211 | 188 | 35 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 19 | 79 | 2 | 23 | 4 | 186 | 268 | 218 | 486 | 32 | 315 | 37 | 9 | 229 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK RAW | ACL D-backs | — | 211 | 175 | 47 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 32 | 53 | 2 | 23 | 4 | 269 | 388 | 326 | 713 | 57 | 379 | 25 | 15 | 332 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | A MLE | Visalia Rawhide | — | 457 | 410 | 86 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 34 | 141 | 4 | 31 | 12 | 210 | 277 | 261 | 538 | 51 | 310 | 31 | 7 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | A RAW | Visalia Rawhide | — | 457 | 394 | 97 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 49 | 102 | 4 | 31 | 12 | 246 | 335 | 305 | 639 | 58 | 323 | 22 | 11 | 292 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 477 | 437 | 93 | 11 | 5 | 3 | 34 | 148 | 2 | 35 | 10 | 213 | 273 | 281 | 554 | 69 | 312 | 31 | 7 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A+ RAW | 2 teams | — | 477 | 422 | 108 | 14 | 6 | 4 | 47 | 109 | 2 | 35 | 10 | 256 | 332 | 346 | 678 | 90 | 334 | 23 | 10 | 307 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 16 | ROK MLE | DSL D-backs Black | — | 190 | 169 | 24 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 51 | 2 | 13 | 4 | 142 | 228 | 207 | 435 | 65 | 185 | 27 | 9 | 195 | 18 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 17 | ROK MLE | ACL D-backs Black | — | 183 | 170 | 24 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 71 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 141 | 198 | 182 | 380 | 41 | 220 | 39 | 5 | 169 | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 18 | ROK MLE | ACL D-backs | — | 211 | 188 | 35 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 19 | 79 | 2 | 23 | 4 | 186 | 268 | 218 | 486 | 32 | 315 | 37 | 9 | 229 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | A MLE | Visalia Rawhide | — | 457 | 416 | 86 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 34 | 141 | 4 | 31 | 12 | 207 | 277 | 257 | 534 | 50 | 300 | 31 | 7 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 477 | 438 | 93 | 11 | 5 | 3 | 34 | 148 | 2 | 35 | 10 | 212 | 273 | 281 | 554 | 68 | 309 | 31 | 7 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 18 | ROK MLE | ACL D-backs | — | 211 | 188 | 35 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 19 | 79 | 2 | 23 | 4 | 186 | 268 | 218 | 486 | 32 | 315 | 37 | 9 | 229 | 41 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 19 | A MLE | Visalia Rawhide | — | 457 | 416 | 86 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 34 | 141 | 4 | 31 | 12 | 207 | 277 | 257 | 534 | 50 | 300 | 31 | 7 | 241 | 49 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 20 | A+ MLE | 2 teams | — | 477 | 438 | 93 | 11 | 5 | 3 | 34 | 148 | 2 | 35 | 10 | 212 | 273 | 281 | 554 | 68 | 309 | 31 | 7 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 21 | MLB MLE | ARI | 0% | 587 | 536 | 106 | 14 | 5 | 3 | 43 | 164 | 3 | 22 | 7 | 197 | 260 | 257 | 518 | 60 | 276 | 28 | 7 | 238 | 47 | -37 | +2 | +0 | +2 | +13 | -0.4 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 21 | MLB CTX | ARI | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 203 | 266 | 270 | 536 | 67 | 285 | 0 | 0 | 246 | 47 | -0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 22 | MLB MLE | ARI | 35% | 439 | 400 | 82 | 11 | 4 | 4 | 33 | 120 | 3 | 16 | 5 | 204 | 268 | 280 | 548 | 76 | 277 | 27 | 8 | 251 | 56 | -23 | +1 | +0 | +2 | +10 | -1.1 |
| 2029 | 23 | MLB MLE | ARI | 49% | 487 | 444 | 93 | 12 | 4 | 7 | 37 | 129 | 3 | 17 | 5 | 210 | 276 | 301 | 577 | 91 | 279 | 26 | 8 | 262 | 64 | -21 | +1 | +0 | +2 | +11 | -0.8 |
| 2030 | 24 | MLB MLE | ARI | 53% | 542 | 492 | 105 | 14 | 4 | 9 | 42 | 142 | 3 | 19 | 6 | 215 | 281 | 316 | 597 | 101 | 280 | 26 | 8 | 270 | 69 | -20 | +1 | +0 | +2 | +12 | -0.5 |
| 2031 | 25 | MLB MLE | ARI | 55% | 578 | 524 | 114 | 16 | 5 | 10 | 45 | 150 | 4 | 19 | 6 | 218 | 285 | 325 | 610 | 107 | 281 | 26 | 8 | 275 | 73 | -19 | +1 | +0 | +2 | +13 | -0.3 |
| 2032 | 26 | MLB MLE | ARI | 56% | 590 | 534 | 118 | 17 | 5 | 11 | 47 | 152 | 4 | 18 | 6 | 219 | 287 | 330 | 617 | 111 | 282 | 26 | 8 | 278 | 75 | -18 | +1 | +0 | +2 | +13 | -0.2 |
| 2033 | 27 | MLB MLE | ARI | 55% | 590 | 534 | 117 | 16 | 5 | 11 | 47 | 152 | 4 | 18 | 5 | 218 | 286 | 328 | 613 | 109 | 281 | 26 | 8 | 277 | 74 | -19 | +2 | +0 | +2 | +13 | -0.2 |
| 2034 | 28 | MLB MLE | ARI | 55% | 582 | 527 | 113 | 16 | 4 | 10 | 46 | 152 | 4 | 15 | 5 | 217 | 284 | 323 | 607 | 107 | 280 | 26 | 8 | 274 | 72 | -19 | +1 | -1 | +2 | +13 | -0.5 |
| 2035 | 29 | MLB MLE | ARI | 53% | 565 | 512 | 110 | 15 | 4 | 10 | 45 | 149 | 3 | 12 | 4 | 214 | 281 | 317 | 599 | 103 | 279 | 26 | 8 | 271 | 70 | -20 | +1 | -1 | +2 | +12 | -0.7 |
| 2028 | 22 | MLB CTX | ARI | 35% | 152 | 139 | 29 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 41 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 210 | 274 | 292 | 565 | 82 | 286 | 27 | 7 | 257 | 56 | -8 | +0 | +0 | +1 | +3 | -0.4 |
| 2029 | 23 | MLB CTX | ARI | 49% | 236 | 215 | 46 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 18 | 63 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 216 | 281 | 312 | 594 | 96 | 288 | 27 | 8 | 269 | 64 | -10 | +1 | +0 | +1 | +5 | -0.4 |
| 2030 | 24 | MLB CTX | ARI | 53% | 286 | 260 | 57 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 22 | 75 | 2 | 10 | 3 | 221 | 286 | 327 | 613 | 106 | 289 | 26 | 8 | 277 | 69 | -10 | +1 | +0 | +1 | +6 | -0.3 |
| 2031 | 25 | MLB CTX | ARI | 55% | 316 | 286 | 64 | 10 | 3 | 5 | 25 | 82 | 2 | 10 | 3 | 223 | 290 | 335 | 625 | 112 | 290 | 26 | 8 | 282 | 73 | -10 | +1 | +0 | +1 | +7 | -0.2 |
| 2032 | 26 | MLB CTX | ARI | 56% | 328 | 297 | 66 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 26 | 84 | 2 | 10 | 3 | 225 | 292 | 340 | 632 | 115 | 291 | 26 | 8 | 284 | 75 | -10 | +1 | +0 | +1 | +7 | -0.1 |
| 2033 | 27 | MLB CTX | ARI | 55% | 325 | 294 | 66 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 26 | 84 | 2 | 10 | 3 | 224 | 291 | 338 | 629 | 114 | 290 | 26 | 8 | 283 | 74 | -10 | +1 | +0 | +1 | +7 | -0.1 |
| 2034 | 28 | MLB CTX | ARI | 55% | 318 | 288 | 64 | 10 | 3 | 5 | 25 | 83 | 2 | 8 | 3 | 222 | 289 | 333 | 622 | 111 | 289 | 26 | 8 | 280 | 72 | -11 | +0 | -0 | +1 | +7 | -0.3 |
| 2035 | 29 | MLB CTX | ARI | 53% | 301 | 272 | 60 | 9 | 3 | 5 | 24 | 79 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 220 | 286 | 327 | 614 | 108 | 288 | 26 | 8 | 277 | 70 | -11 | +1 | -1 | +1 | +7 | -0.4 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 2262 | 2051 | 452 | 69 | 22 | 35 | 177 | 591 | 14 | 69 | 21 | 220 | 287 | 327 | 613 | 106 | 290 | 26 | 8 | 278 | 61 | -81 | +5 | -1 | +8 | +49 | -2.0 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 589 | 130 | 20 | 6 | 10 | 51 | 170 | 4 | 20 | 6 | 221 | 287 | 326 | 613 | 105 | 291 | 26 | 8 | 278 | 61 | -23 | +2 | -0 | +2 | +14 | -0.6 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 6101 | 5530 | 1152 | 151 | 51 | 79 | 470 | 1695 | 41 | 251 | 78 | 208 | 275 | 297 | 572 | 89 | 283 | 28 | 8 | 259 | 61 | -173 | +11 | -2 | +16 | +99 | -4.9 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 589 | 122 | 16 | 5 | 8 | 50 | 181 | 4 | 27 | 8 | 207 | 273 | 292 | 565 | 85 | 282 | 28 | 8 | 259 | 61 | -24 | +2 | -0 | +2 | +14 | -0.7 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 A+Hillsboro Hops · 270 PAwOBA .289 → .243 (−46)K% 22.2% → 30.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.22% | ÷1.000 | ×1.350 | — | — | 30.00% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.027 | 7.29% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.37% | — | ×0.810 | — | ×1.027 | 0.31% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.42% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×1.015 | ×1.027 | 24.11% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.82% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×1.015 | ×1.027 | 2.44% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.26% | ÷1.000 | ×0.820 | ×1.015 | ×1.027 | 1.93% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.69% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | — | ×1.027 | 1.44% |
Factors used: level-wide A+ factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.015.
Result: wOBA .289 → .243; ISO .093 → .076; BABIP .307 → .286. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 AVisalia Rawhide · 207 PAwOBA .315 → .255 (−60)K% 23.7% → 32.2%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.67% | ÷1.000 | ×1.360 | — | — | 32.19% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 9.66% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 6.77% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.48% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 0.38% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.68% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×1.003 | ×1.015 | 26.85% |
| Doubles /BIP | 6.62% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×1.003 | ×1.015 | 5.59% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.47% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×1.003 | ×1.015 | 1.36% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.74% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 0.60% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.003.
Result: wOBA .315 → .255; ISO .086 → .069; BABIP .370 → .340. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AVisalia Rawhide · 457 PAwOBA .289 → .241 (−48)K% 22.3% → 30.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 22.32% | ÷0.983 | ×1.360 | — | — | 30.87% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 10.72% | ÷1.012 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.030 | 7.53% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.88% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.030 | 0.70% |
| Singles /BIP | 27.74% | ÷1.027 | ×0.920 | ×1.010 | ×1.030 | 25.85% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.42% | ÷1.005 | ×0.830 | ×1.010 | ×1.030 | 2.94% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.71% | ÷0.900 | ×0.910 | ×1.010 | ×1.030 | 1.80% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.34% | ÷1.283 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.030 | 0.22% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 157, 1B 105, 2B 101, 3B 80, K 97, BB 102 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 22.0 → +3.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.010.
Result: wOBA .289 → .241; ISO .058 → .051; BABIP .323 → .300. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ROKACL D-backs · 211 PAwOBA .328 → .229 (−98)K% 25.1% → 37.5%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 25.12% | ÷0.965 | ×1.440 | — | — | 37.49% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 15.17% | ÷1.069 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.008 | 8.86% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.95% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.008 | 0.69% |
| Singles /BIP | 31.97% | ÷1.009 | ×0.820 | ×1.039 | ×1.008 | 27.19% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.92% | ÷1.031 | ×0.720 | ×1.039 | ×1.008 | 3.60% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.64% | ÷0.984 | ×0.720 | ×1.039 | ×1.008 | 1.26% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.875 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.008 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 75, 1B 102, 2B 106, 3B 97, K 93, BB 114 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 19.5 → +0.8% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.039.
Result: wOBA .328 → .229; ISO .057 → .039; BABIP .379 → .315. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 ROKACL D-backs Black · 183 PAwOBA .250 → .169 (−81)K% 27.9% → 39.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.87% | ÷1.030 | ×1.440 | — | — | 38.97% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.65% | ÷1.001 | ×0.620 | — | ×1.022 | 4.84% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.09% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×1.022 | 0.80% |
| Singles /BIP | 24.55% | ÷1.073 | ×0.820 | ×0.958 | ×1.022 | 18.37% |
| Doubles /BIP | 3.64% | ÷0.966 | ×0.720 | ×0.958 | ×1.022 | 2.66% |
| Triples /BIP | 2.73% | ÷0.950 | ×0.720 | ×0.958 | ×1.022 | 2.03% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.038 | ×0.780 | — | ×1.022 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 108, 1B 115, 2B 93, 3B 90, K 106, BB 100 — applied at half strength. Age: age 18 vs a level average of 19.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.958.
Result: wOBA .250 → .169; ISO .062 → .042; BABIP .296 → .220. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2022 DSLDSL D-backs Black · 190 PAwOBA .298 → .195 (−103)K% 21.6% → 26.9%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.58% | ÷0.978 | ×1.220 | — | — | 26.92% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.58% | ÷0.927 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 8.94% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.05% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×1.022 | 0.75% |
| Singles /BIP | 22.58% | ÷1.014 | ×0.680 | ×0.988 | ×1.022 | 15.29% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.84% | ÷1.104 | ×0.600 | ×0.988 | ×1.022 | 2.66% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.81% | ÷1.150 | ×0.600 | ×0.988 | ×1.022 | 0.42% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.42% | ÷0.896 | ×0.470 | — | ×1.022 | 1.30% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 79, 1B 103, 2B 121, 3B 130, K 96, BB 85 — applied at half strength. Age: age 17 vs a level average of 18.5 → +2.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.988.
Result: wOBA .298 → .195; ISO .103 → .054; BABIP .287 → .185. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).