Carlos Pacheco
OF Lansing Lugnuts| Year | Age | Lvl / Team | PA | AVG/OBP/SLG | HR | SB | wRC+ | WAR | MLE AVG/OBP/SLG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 19 | ROKOAK | 184 | .257/.400/.403 | 3 | 11 | 53 | — | .176/.300/.288 |
| 2025 | 20 | A+/A/ROKOAK | 253 | .165/.340/.206 | 1 | 19 | 23 | — | .136/.272/.173 |
| 2026 | 21 | AA/A+/AOAK | 203 | .212/.294/.296 | 1 | 22 | 33 | — | .179/.249/.255 |
| 2027PROJMLE | 22 | MLBOAK | 1 | .184/.258/.258 | 0 | 0 | 43 | -0.0 | |
| 2028PROJ35% MLB | 23 | MLBOAK | 73 | .192/.265/.281 | 1 | 2 | 52 | -0.3 |
Tools · ContractCON 27 / POW 35
Career Stats + Projections
Methodology▸ how these numbers are built
All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = full-season projection (no games played yet). 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | MLB% | PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | HBP | SB | CS | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ISO | BABIP | K% | BB% | wOBA | wRC+ | BAT | RUN | FLD | POS | REP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 17 | ROK | DSL Athletics | — | 212 | 164 | 30 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 39 | 43 | 7 | 19 | 6 | 183 | 362 | 226 | 588 | 43 | 244 | 20 | 18 | 293 | 23 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK | DSL Athletics | — | 160 | 131 | 32 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 22 | 38 | 5 | 20 | 5 | 244 | 373 | 336 | 709 | 92 | 326 | 24 | 14 | 329 | 23 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK | ACL Athletics | — | 184 | 144 | 37 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 22 | 45 | 13 | 11 | 3 | 257 | 400 | 403 | 803 | 146 | 347 | 24 | 12 | 361 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A+ | Lansing Lugnuts | — | 60 | 45 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 13 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 89 | 263 | 89 | 352 | 118 | 22 | 17 | 189 | -12 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2025 | 20 | A | Stockton Ports | — | 141 | 115 | 20 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 21 | 41 | 5 | 11 | 1 | 174 | 326 | 235 | 561 | 61 | 260 | 29 | 15 | 277 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | ROK | ACL Athletics | — | 52 | 34 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 235 | 469 | 265 | 734 | 29 | 333 | 21 | 17 | 352 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | AA | Midland RockHounds | — | 40 | 36 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 250 | 282 | 333 | 615 | 83 | 346 | 28 | 2 | 267 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ | Lansing Lugnuts | — | 109 | 96 | 20 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 40 | 1 | 15 | 3 | 208 | 303 | 312 | 615 | 104 | 345 | 37 | 11 | 284 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A | Stockton Ports | — | 54 | 47 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 191 | 283 | 234 | 517 | 43 | 225 | 15 | 7 | 244 | 23 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Athletics | — | 212 | 176 | 21 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 27 | 55 | 7 | 19 | 6 | 119 | 262 | 142 | 404 | 23 | 165 | 26 | 13 | 202 | 23 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Athletics | — | 160 | 138 | 20 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 47 | 5 | 20 | 5 | 145 | 253 | 196 | 449 | 51 | 195 | 29 | 9 | 202 | 23 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK MLE | ACL Athletics | — | 184 | 153 | 27 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 65 | 13 | 11 | 3 | 176 | 300 | 288 | 588 | 111 | 246 | 35 | 8 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A+ MLE | Lansing Lugnuts | — | 60 | 49 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 17 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 82 | 211 | 82 | 292 | 101 | 28 | 12 | 150 | -12 | — | — | — | — | — | — | |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | Stockton Ports | — | 141 | 122 | 17 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 55 | 5 | 11 | 1 | 139 | 255 | 197 | 452 | 57 | 230 | 39 | 10 | 203 | 24 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | ROK MLE | ACL Athletics | — | 52 | 37 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 16 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 189 | 388 | 216 | 604 | 27 | 257 | 31 | 12 | 262 | 63 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | AA MLE | Midland RockHounds | — | 40 | 37 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 243 | 282 | 324 | 606 | 81 | 329 | 32 | 2 | 248 | 54 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ MLE | Lansing Lugnuts | — | 109 | 99 | 16 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 51 | 1 | 15 | 3 | 162 | 239 | 253 | 491 | 91 | 315 | 47 | 8 | 212 | 30 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A MLE | Stockton Ports | — | 54 | 48 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 167 | 245 | 208 | 454 | 42 | 202 | 20 | 6 | 202 | 23 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Athletics | — | 212 | 176 | 21 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 27 | 55 | 7 | 19 | 6 | 119 | 262 | 142 | 404 | 23 | 171 | 26 | 13 | 202 | 23 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK RAW | DSL Athletics | — | 212 | 164 | 30 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 39 | 43 | 7 | 19 | 6 | 183 | 362 | 226 | 588 | 43 | 244 | 20 | 18 | 293 | 23 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Athletics | — | 160 | 138 | 20 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 47 | 5 | 20 | 5 | 145 | 253 | 196 | 449 | 51 | 209 | 29 | 9 | 202 | 23 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK RAW | DSL Athletics | — | 160 | 131 | 32 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 22 | 38 | 5 | 20 | 5 | 244 | 373 | 336 | 709 | 92 | 326 | 24 | 14 | 329 | 23 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK MLE | ACL Athletics | — | 184 | 153 | 27 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 65 | 13 | 11 | 3 | 176 | 300 | 288 | 588 | 111 | 276 | 35 | 8 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK RAW | ACL Athletics | — | 184 | 144 | 37 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 22 | 45 | 13 | 11 | 3 | 257 | 400 | 403 | 803 | 146 | 347 | 24 | 12 | 361 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 253 | 208 | 27 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 27 | 88 | 12 | 19 | 2 | 130 | 267 | 163 | 431 | 34 | 213 | 35 | 11 | 203 | 23 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A RAW | 3 teams | — | 253 | 194 | 32 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 40 | 65 | 12 | 19 | 2 | 165 | 340 | 206 | 546 | 41 | 237 | 26 | 16 | 272 | 23 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 203 | 185 | 33 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 75 | 4 | 22 | 3 | 178 | 244 | 243 | 487 | 65 | 288 | 37 | 6 | 216 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ RAW | 3 teams | — | 203 | 179 | 38 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 17 | 59 | 4 | 22 | 3 | 212 | 294 | 296 | 590 | 84 | 306 | 29 | 8 | 270 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2022 | 17 | ROK MLE | DSL Athletics | — | 212 | 176 | 21 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 27 | 55 | 7 | 19 | 6 | 119 | 262 | 142 | 404 | 23 | 165 | 26 | 13 | 202 | 23 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2023 | 18 | ROK MLE | DSL Athletics | — | 160 | 139 | 20 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 47 | 5 | 20 | 5 | 144 | 253 | 194 | 447 | 50 | 195 | 29 | 9 | 202 | 23 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2024 | 19 | ROK MLE | ACL Athletics | — | 184 | 155 | 27 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 65 | 13 | 11 | 3 | 174 | 300 | 284 | 584 | 110 | 246 | 35 | 8 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 253 | 212 | 27 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 27 | 88 | 12 | 19 | 2 | 127 | 267 | 160 | 428 | 33 | 205 | 35 | 11 | 203 | 23 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 203 | 185 | 33 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 75 | 4 | 22 | 3 | 178 | 244 | 243 | 487 | 65 | 288 | 37 | 6 | 216 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2024 | 19 | ROK MLE | ACL Athletics | — | 184 | 155 | 27 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 65 | 13 | 11 | 3 | 174 | 300 | 284 | 584 | 110 | 246 | 35 | 8 | 246 | 53 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2025 | 20 | A MLE | 3 teams | — | 253 | 212 | 27 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 27 | 88 | 12 | 19 | 2 | 127 | 267 | 160 | 428 | 33 | 205 | 35 | 11 | 203 | 23 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2026 | 21 | A+ MLE | 3 teams | — | 203 | 185 | 33 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 75 | 4 | 22 | 3 | 178 | 244 | 243 | 487 | 65 | 288 | 37 | 6 | 216 | 33 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| ▸ 2027 season | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB MLE | OAK | 0% | 313 | 282 | 51 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 23 | 101 | 5 | 9 | 2 | 179 | 253 | 248 | 501 | 69 | 267 | 32 | 7 | 232 | 43 | -21 | +1 | +0 | -2 | +7 | -0.6 |
| ▸ 2027 — real world (MLB) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 22 | MLB CTX | OAK | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 184 | 258 | 258 | 516 | 74 | 276 | 0 | 0 | 239 | 43 | -0 | +0 | +0 | -0 | +0 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2028 | 23 | MLB MLE | OAK | 35% | 212 | 191 | 35 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 67 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 186 | 260 | 271 | 531 | 85 | 269 | 32 | 8 | 245 | 52 | -12 | +1 | +0 | -1 | +5 | -0.8 |
| 2028 | 23 | MLB CTX | OAK | 35% | 73 | 66 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 23 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 192 | 265 | 281 | 546 | 89 | 278 | 32 | 8 | 251 | 52 | -4 | +0 | +0 | -0 | +2 | -0.3 |
| ▸ Career Totals | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | A+C | — | 73 | 66 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 23 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 197 | 274 | 288 | 562 | 91 | 286 | 32 | 8 | 251 | 35 | -4 | +0 | +0 | -0 | +2 | -0.3 | |
| / 162G | — | A+C | — | 650 | 588 | 116 | 27 | 0 | 9 | 53 | 205 | 9 | 18 | 0 | 197 | 274 | 289 | 563 | 92 | 286 | 32 | 8 | 251 | 35 | -37 | +4 | +0 | -4 | +14 | -2.4 | |
| Career | — | MLE | — | 1373 | 1186 | 188 | 29 | 8 | 9 | 122 | 445 | 46 | 101 | 21 | 159 | 263 | 219 | 482 | 61 | 241 | 32 | 9 | 220 | 35 | -22 | +1 | +0 | -2 | +8 | -1.6 | |
| / 162G | — | MLE | — | 650 | 561 | 89 | 14 | 4 | 4 | 58 | 211 | 22 | 48 | 10 | 159 | 264 | 219 | 483 | 61 | 241 | 32 | 9 | 220 | 35 | -40 | +2 | +0 | -4 | +14 | -2.8 | |
How the minor-league lines were translated
One row per minor-league stint. Open a row to see each step: the raw rate, the park adjustment, the league/level factor, the age adjustment (hitters) and the resulting MLE rate. Factors are the same ones listed on the MLE Factors page.
2026 A+Lansing Lugnuts · 109 PAwOBA .277 → .212 (−65)K% 36.7% → 46.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 36.70% | ÷1.000 | ×1.270 | — | — | 46.61% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.01% | ÷1.000 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.012 | 7.91% |
| HBP% /PA | 0.92% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.012 | 0.73% |
| Singles /BIP | 25.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×1.011 | ×1.012 | 23.53% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.36% | ÷1.000 | ×0.810 | ×1.011 | ×1.012 | 4.44% |
| Triples /BIP | 3.57% | ÷1.000 | ×0.850 | ×1.011 | ×1.012 | 3.11% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.79% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.012 | 1.45% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.8 → +1.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.011.
Result: wOBA .277 → .212; ISO .104 → .076; BABIP .345 → .315. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 AStockton Ports · 54 PAwOBA .243 → .202 (−40)K% 14.8% → 20.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 14.81% | ÷1.000 | ×1.360 | — | — | 20.15% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 7.41% | ÷1.000 | ×0.690 | — | — | 5.11% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.70% | — | ×0.780 | — | — | 2.89% |
| Singles /BIP | 17.95% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | ×1.000 | — | 16.51% |
| Doubles /BIP | 5.13% | ÷1.000 | ×0.830 | ×1.000 | — | 4.25% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.910 | ×1.000 | — | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | — | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 22.0 → +0.0% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×1.000.
Result: wOBA .243 → .202; ISO .043 → .035; BABIP .225 → .202. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2026 AAMidland RockHounds · 40 PAwOBA .266 → .248 (−18)K% 27.5% → 33.6%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 27.50% | ÷1.000 | ×1.220 | — | — | 33.55% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 2.50% | ÷1.000 | ×0.700 | — | ×1.042 | 1.82% |
| HBP% /PA | 2.50% | — | ×0.870 | — | ×1.042 | 2.27% |
| Singles /BIP | 28.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.920 | — | ×1.042 | 26.84% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.840 | — | ×1.042 | 3.50% |
| Triples /BIP | 4.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.940 | — | ×1.042 | 3.92% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.000 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.042 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row TL. Park (home-season share, regressed): no park row on file (treated as neutral) — applied at half strength. Age: age 22 vs a level average of 24.8 → +4.2% on BB/HBP/hit rates (2.8 yr younger than average).
Result: wOBA .266 → .248; ISO .083 → .079; BABIP .346 → .329. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 AStockton Ports · 141 PAwOBA .271 → .203 (−68)K% 29.1% → 39.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 29.08% | ÷1.011 | ×1.360 | — | — | 39.10% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 14.89% | ÷1.029 | ×0.690 | — | ×1.015 | 10.13% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.55% | — | ×0.780 | — | ×1.015 | 2.81% |
| Singles /BIP | 21.62% | ÷1.003 | ×0.920 | ×0.968 | ×1.015 | 19.48% |
| Doubles /BIP | 2.70% | ÷0.990 | ×0.830 | ×0.968 | ×1.015 | 2.23% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.35% | ÷1.150 | ×0.910 | ×0.968 | ×1.015 | 1.05% |
| Home runs /BIP | 1.35% | ÷1.113 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.015 | 0.99% |
Factors used: level-wide A factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 123, 1B 101, 2B 98, 3B 130, K 102, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.0 → +1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.0 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.968.
Result: wOBA .271 → .203; ISO .061 → .043; BABIP .260 → .230. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 A+Lansing Lugnuts · 60 PAwOBA .192 → .150 (−42)K% 21.7% → 28.4%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.67% | ÷0.969 | ×1.270 | — | — | 28.39% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 16.67% | ÷1.048 | ×0.710 | — | ×1.027 | 11.60% |
| HBP% /PA | 1.67% | — | ×0.790 | — | ×1.027 | 1.35% |
| Singles /BIP | 12.50% | ÷1.078 | ×0.920 | ×0.977 | ×1.027 | 10.71% |
| Doubles /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.199 | ×0.810 | ×0.977 | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷1.150 | ×0.850 | ×0.977 | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.921 | ×0.800 | — | ×1.027 | 0.00% |
Factors used: league row Midwest League. Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 84, 1B 116, 2B 140, 3B 130, K 94, BB 110 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 22.8 → +2.7% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.8 yr younger than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.977.
Result: wOBA .192 → .150; ISO .000 → .000; BABIP .118 → .101. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2025 ROKACL Athletics · 52 PAwOBA .352 → .262 (−90)K% 21.2% → 31.0%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 21.15% | ÷0.983 | ×1.440 | — | — | 30.99% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 17.31% | ÷0.971 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.985 | 10.88% |
| HBP% /PA | 11.54% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 8.18% |
| Singles /BIP | 30.43% | ÷1.039 | ×0.820 | — | ×0.985 | 23.66% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.35% | ÷1.020 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 3.02% |
| Triples /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.989 | ×0.720 | — | ×0.985 | 0.00% |
| Home runs /BIP | 0.00% | ÷0.926 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.985 | 0.00% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 85, 1B 108, 2B 104, 3B 98, K 97, BB 94 — applied at half strength. Age: age 21 vs a level average of 19.5 → −1.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (1.5 yr older than average).
Result: wOBA .352 → .262; ISO .029 → .023; BABIP .333 → .257. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2024 ROKACL Athletics · 184 PAwOBA .356 → .246 (−110)K% 24.5% → 35.3%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 24.46% | ÷0.998 | ×1.440 | — | — | 35.27% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 11.96% | ÷0.986 | ×0.620 | — | ×0.995 | 7.48% |
| HBP% /PA | 7.07% | — | ×0.720 | — | ×0.995 | 5.06% |
| Singles /BIP | 23.23% | ÷1.027 | ×0.820 | ×0.950 | ×0.995 | 17.54% |
| Doubles /BIP | 10.10% | ÷1.124 | ×0.720 | ×0.950 | ×0.995 | 6.12% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.01% | ÷0.907 | ×0.720 | ×0.950 | ×0.995 | 0.76% |
| Home runs /BIP | 3.03% | ÷0.852 | ×0.780 | — | ×0.995 | 2.76% |
Factors used: level-wide ROK factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 70, 1B 105, 2B 125, 3B 81, K 100, BB 97 — applied at half strength. Age: age 20 vs a level average of 19.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .356 → .246; ISO .146 → .106; BABIP .347 → .246. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).
2023 DSLDSL Athletics · 160 PAwOBA .323 → .202 (−121)K% 23.8% → 29.1%
| Component | Raw | Park ÷ | Level factor × | GB/FB × | Age × | = MLE |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K% /PA | 23.75% | ÷0.994 | ×1.220 | — | — | 29.15% |
| BB% (unintentional) /PA | 13.75% | ÷1.030 | ×0.700 | — | ×0.995 | 9.30% |
| HBP% /PA | 3.12% | — | ×0.700 | — | ×0.995 | 2.18% |
| Singles /BIP | 26.88% | ÷1.031 | ×0.680 | ×0.950 | ×0.995 | 16.77% |
| Doubles /BIP | 4.30% | ÷1.138 | ×0.600 | ×0.950 | ×0.995 | 2.14% |
| Triples /BIP | 1.08% | ÷1.000 | ×0.600 | ×0.950 | ×0.995 | 0.61% |
| Home runs /BIP | 2.15% | ÷1.039 | ×0.470 | — | ×0.995 | 0.97% |
Factors used: level-wide DSL factors (no league-specific row for this league/era). Park (home-season share, regressed): HR 108, 1B 106, 2B 128, 3B 100, K 99, BB 106 — applied at half strength. Age: age 19 vs a level average of 18.5 → −0.5% on BB/HBP/hit rates (0.5 yr older than average). Ground-ball/fly-ball mix moves 1B/2B/3B by ×0.950.
Result: wOBA .323 → .202; ISO .092 → .045; BABIP .326 → .195. Both wOBAs use the same linear weights, so the change is the translation alone. The MLE line is not regressed to the mean — regression happens later, when seasons are blended into a projection (how).