Arlison Rodriguez prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Arlison Rodriguez P DSL Mets Blue

Age 23 LHP 6'5" / 220 lbs ROK peak 0.1 · 2026

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 26 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 99107vR 115

ERA4.31

FIP4.31

K%22.4%

BB%8.5%

K-BB%13.9%

ROS IP26

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 26 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	19	ROK MLE	DSL Mets 1	18	0	26	119	30	9	1	0%	1.5	17.1%	9.5%	7.7%	1.2%	4.78	3.53	—
2022	19	ROK RAW	DSL Mets 1	18	0	26	119	30	9	1	0%	1.5	25.2%	7.6%	17.6%	0.8%	4.78	2.34	—
2023	20	ROK MLE	DSL Mets Blue	16	3	44	185	38	11	3	19%	2.8	14.0%	7.4%	6.5%	2.6%	3.05	4.30	—
2023	20	ROK MLE	DSL Mets Blue	16	3	44	185	38	11	3	19%	2.8	14.0%	7.4%	6.5%	2.6%	3.05	4.30	—
2023	20	ROK RAW	DSL Mets Blue	16	3	44	185	38	11	3	19%	2.8	20.5%	5.9%	14.6%	1.6%	3.05	3.01	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	23	MLB	NYM	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	22.4%	8.5%	13.9%	3.0%	4.31	4.31	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	NYM	26	0	27	114	26	10	3	0%	1.0	23.0%	8.3%	14.7%	3.0%	4.26	4.22	+0.1
2027	24	MLB CTX	NYM	11	0	12	51	12	4	2	0%	1.1	23.0%	8.3%	14.7%	3.0%	4.26	4.22	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		11	0	12	49	11	4	1	0%	1.1	23.0%	8.3%	14.7%	3.0%	4.26	3.84	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	190	69	17	0%	1.1	23.0%	8.3%	14.7%	3.0%	4.26	3.84	+1.7
Career	—	MLE		34	3	71	304	46	25	6	9%	2.1	15.2%	8.2%	7.0%	2.1%	3.69	4.00	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		96	8	200	860	131	71	18	9%	2.1	15.2%	8.2%	7.0%	2.1%	3.69	4.00	+0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Arlison Rodriguez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.31	22.4%	8.5%	3.0%	—	4.22	23.0%	14.7%	27	-0.09	—	—	—
Ryan Rowland-Smith L 2007 · 3.35 FIP	24	SU	3.35	25.0%	8.3%	2.4%	.324	4.89	12.7%	4.4%	324	+1.54	3.35	363	85
Andrew Mitchell L 2018 · 3.75 FIP	23	SU	3.75	21.8%	7.5%	2.8%	.333	2.71	23.8%	15.8%	78	-1.04	2.51	119	83
Garvin Alston L 2019 · 4.29 FIP	22	SU	4.29	19.7%	6.6%	3.7%	.333	4.74	16.4%	2.9%	84	+0.45	3.98	232	83
Hunter Schryver L 2018 · 3.58 FIP	23	SU	3.58	23.2%	6.8%	2.9%	.259	4.22	19.9%	7.5%	106	+0.64	3.58	206	82
Felix Doubront L 2010 · 4.00 FIP	22	SW	4.00	20.4%	8.8%	2.7%	.312	4.02	21.6%	11.6%	323	+0.02	3.44	719	82
Ben Wereski L 2022 · 4.78 FIP	24	SU	4.78	18.6%	7.6%	4.2%	.287	3.73	29.0%	21.6%	20	-1.05	3.73	142	82
Wyatt Short L 2018 · 3.83 FIP	23	SU	3.83	20.4%	8.4%	2.5%	.262	4.01	20.5%	10.3%	91	+0.18	2.74	288	82
Pedro Feliciano L 2003 · 3.74 FIP	26	SU	3.74	19.7%	8.3%	2.3%	.309	3.52	20.2%	11.1%	79	-0.22	2.69	378	81
Chris Cotton L 2015 · 3.69 FIP	24	SU	3.69	20.7%	7.0%	2.6%	.288	4.17	9.7%	3.3%	61	+0.48	3.69	128	81
Daniel Zamora L 2016 · 3.57 FIP	23	SU	3.57	20.3%	10.8%	1.5%	.294	2.75	24.7%	16.8%	135	-0.82	2.15	310	81
Sean Mellen L 2021 · 4.59 FIP	23	SU	4.59	21.5%	12.1%	3.2%	.364	4.01	21.3%	10.9%	55	-0.58	4.01	101	81
Shane McCain L 2015 · 4.34 FIP	23	SU	4.34	19.8%	9.7%	3.0%	.324	4.75	16.6%	10.0%	125	+0.41	4.34	201	81
Easton Lucas L 2021 · 4.29 FIP	24	SU	4.29	23.6%	9.2%	3.7%	.316	4.00	21.5%	11.9%	184	-0.29	3.38	311	80
Ryne Slack L 2015 · 4.07 FIP	23	SU	4.07	18.8%	9.0%	2.6%	.293	5.00	15.4%	2.5%	142	+0.93	4.07	212	80
Michael Johnson L 2015 · 3.92 FIP	24	SU	3.92	20.6%	9.4%	2.5%	.260	4.70	17.6%	7.7%	185	+0.78	3.92	256	80
Garrett Irvin L 2023 · 4.42 FIP	24	SU	4.42	23.2%	11.6%	3.3%	.283	4.32	17.7%	2.9%	39	-0.10	4.32	110	80
Houston Harding L 2022 · 5.30 FIP	24	SU	5.30	20.2%	10.5%	4.7%	.307	4.87	17.3%	4.9%	158	-0.43	3.41	239	80
Mike Zagurski L 2007 · 4.10 FIP	24	SU	4.10	20.8%	8.9%	3.0%	.324	—	—	—	—	—	2.94	120	80
R.C. Orlan L 2015 · 3.93 FIP	24	SU	3.93	21.0%	10.9%	2.2%	.326	4.62	17.2%	5.0%	119	+0.69	1.71	206	80
Robert Garcia L 2019 · 4.35 FIP	23	SU	4.35	24.0%	11.4%	3.3%	.342	4.38	22.0%	10.4%	106	+0.03	2.21	471	79

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 714 reliever careers (1990-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.3	27	22.7%	8.4%	1.15	4.28
Ian Krol ('21)	1.0	42	21.2%	8.8%	1.25	4.49
Kevin Quackenbush ('21)	1.0	52	21.0%	9.2%	1.04	4.41
Charlie Furbush ('15)	1.3	52	24.5%	8.1%	1.04	3.97
Shawn Tolleson ('16)	1.1	54	23.1%	8.3%	1.28	3.92
David Carpenter ('19)	1.1	43	23.5%	8.4%	0.92	3.69
Chris Hatcher ('18)	1.3	53	22.9%	8.4%	1.32	4.65