Augusto Mendieta

Augusto Mendieta P Northwest Arkansas Naturals

Age 21 RHP 5'11" / 190 lbs AA Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2034 peak 0.6 · 2030

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 16 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 114106vR 98

ERA4.26

FIP4.26

K%21.9%

BB%8.9%

K-BB%12.9%

ROS IP17

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 16 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit━ post-control+$20M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5060

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2029

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2034

First FA Year 2035

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2029
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+0.5	$2M	+$1.0M
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.9M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.6	$2M	+$1M
2032	Arb-1	$1M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.6M
2033	Arb-2	$2M	+0.5	$1M	+$0.4M
2034	Arb-3	$2M	+0.3	$0.7M	+$0.0M (cut)
Totals		$6M		$8M	+$4M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	18	ROK MLE	ACL Royals	11	1	14	70	20	7	2	9%	1.3	19.4%	12.5%	6.9%	4.0%	8.79	5.24	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	ACL Royals	11	1	14	70	20	7	2	9%	1.3	19.4%	12.5%	6.9%	4.0%	8.79	5.24	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	ACL Royals	11	1	14	70	20	7	2	9%	1.3	28.6%	10.0%	18.6%	2.9%	8.79	3.59	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	ACL Royals	12	0	15	66	12	6	0	0%	1.2	12.4%	11.4%	1.0%	0.0%	3.68	3.50	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	ACL Royals	12	0	15	66	12	6	0	0%	1.2	12.4%	11.4%	1.0%	0.0%	3.68	3.50	—
2024	19	ROK RAW	ACL Royals	12	0	15	66	12	6	0	0%	1.2	18.2%	9.1%	9.1%	0.0%	3.68	2.69	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	0	43	186	57	13	0	0%	1.4	21.7%	8.1%	13.6%	0.0%	3.12	2.29	—
2025	20	MIX MLE	2 levels	30	0	43	186	57	13	0	0%	1.4	21.7%	8.1%	13.6%	0.0%	3.12	2.29	—
2025	20	MIX RAW	2 levels	30	0	43	186	57	13	0	0%	1.4	30.6%	7.0%	23.7%	0.0%	3.12	1.37	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	21	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	40	0	67	289	86	30	8	0%	1.7	22.6%	11.8%	10.8%	3.4%	4.57	4.57	—
YTD	21	AA MLE	Northwest Arkansas Naturals	40	0	67	289	86	30	8	0%	1.7	22.6%	11.8%	10.8%	3.4%	4.57	4.57	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	21	A+ RAW	KC	2	0	3	10	8	0	0	0%	1.5	80.0%	0.0%	80.0%	0.0%	0.00	-3.66	—
2026	21	AA RAW	KC	38	0	64	279	78	30	8	0%	1.7	28.0%	10.8%	17.2%	2.9%	4.78	3.68	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	22	MLB MLE	KC	66	0	69	291	67	25	8	0%	1.0	22.9%	8.5%	14.4%	2.7%	4.17	4.10	+0.4
2028	23	MLB MLE	KC	68	0	72	302	71	25	8	0%	1.1	23.7%	8.2%	15.5%	2.7%	4.07	3.99	+0.5
2029	24	MLB MLE	KC	70	0	73	309	75	25	8	0%	1.0	24.2%	8.1%	16.2%	2.7%	3.98	3.92	+0.6
2030	25	MLB MLE	KC	71	0	74	313	77	25	8	0%	1.0	24.6%	8.0%	16.6%	2.7%	3.92	3.87	+0.6
2031	26	MLB MLE	KC	71	0	74	313	78	25	8	0%	1.0	24.8%	7.9%	16.8%	2.7%	3.88	3.85	+0.6
2032	27	MLB MLE	KC	70	0	73	309	76	25	8	0%	1.0	24.8%	8.0%	16.8%	2.7%	3.88	3.89	+0.6
2033	28	MLB MLE	KC	68	0	71	299	74	24	8	0%	1.0	24.6%	8.2%	16.5%	2.8%	3.93	3.97	+0.5
2034	29	MLB MLE	KC	64	0	68	286	70	24	8	0%	1.1	24.4%	8.4%	16.0%	3.0%	4.03	4.10	+0.4
2035	30	MLB MLE	KC	61	0	64	269	65	23	8	0%	1.0	24.0%	8.7%	15.4%	3.2%	4.18	4.28	+0.2
2027	22	MLB CTX	KC	33	0	35	148	34	13	4	0%	1.1	22.9%	8.5%	14.4%	2.5%	4.06	3.99	+0.2
2028	23	MLB CTX	KC	50	0	52	220	52	18	5	0%	1.0	23.7%	8.2%	15.5%	2.5%	3.96	3.88	+0.3
2029	24	MLB CTX	KC	58	0	61	258	62	21	6	0%	1.1	24.2%	8.1%	16.2%	2.5%	3.87	3.81	+0.5
2030	25	MLB CTX	KC	63	0	66	279	68	22	7	0%	1.0	24.6%	8.0%	16.6%	2.5%	3.81	3.76	+0.5
2031	26	MLB CTX	KC	65	0	68	287	71	23	7	0%	1.0	24.8%	7.9%	16.8%	2.5%	3.77	3.74	+0.6
2032	27	MLB CTX	KC	65	0	68	287	71	23	7	0%	1.0	24.8%	8.0%	16.8%	2.5%	3.77	3.78	+0.5
2033	28	MLB CTX	KC	63	0	66	279	69	23	7	0%	1.0	24.6%	8.2%	16.5%	2.6%	3.81	3.85	+0.5
2034	29	MLB CTX	KC	61	0	64	270	66	23	7	0%	1.0	24.4%	8.4%	16.0%	2.7%	3.91	3.98	+0.3
2035	30	MLB CTX	KC	57	0	60	253	61	22	7	0%	1.1	24.0%	8.7%	15.4%	2.9%	4.05	4.15	+0.2
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		515	0	540	2281	555	187	59	0%	1.0	24.3%	8.2%	16.1%	2.6%	3.88	3.49	+6.8
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	205	69	22	0%	1.1	24.3%	8.2%	16.1%	2.6%	3.88	3.49	+2.5
Career	—	MLE		93	1	139	611	128	66	13	1%	1.5	20.9%	10.7%	10.2%	2.1%	4.46	3.84	+4.2
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		133	1	200	877	183	94	18	1%	1.5	20.9%	10.7%	10.2%	2.1%	4.46	3.84	+1.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Augusto Mendieta (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.26	21.9%	8.9%	2.7%	—	4.00	23.6%	15.4%	214	-0.26	—	—	—
Michael Gomez R 2019 · 3.32 FIP	22	SU	3.32	22.6%	9.2%	1.8%	.283	3.81	17.9%	8.3%	110	+0.49	3.32	286	91
Addison Russ R 2017 · 3.62 FIP	22	SU	3.62	22.2%	7.9%	2.5%	.324	3.09	25.6%	17.5%	121	-0.53	3.08	194	90
Sandy Lugo R 2015 · 3.86 FIP	21	SU	3.86	20.7%	9.5%	2.4%	.352	3.98	23.6%	12.5%	119	+0.12	3.48	146	90
Collin Kober R 2017 · 3.39 FIP	22	SU	3.39	21.3%	7.5%	2.1%	.268	2.76	24.0%	17.9%	128	-0.63	2.38	294	90
Devon Roedahl R 2019 · 3.94 FIP	22	SU	3.94	19.7%	6.7%	3.0%	.305	4.64	16.5%	9.2%	100	+0.70	3.94	122	89
Jeff Bain R 2017 · 3.94 FIP	21	SU	3.94	19.7%	6.7%	3.0%	.339	4.22	19.1%	10.7%	274	+0.28	3.35	475	88
Kenny Oakley R 2016 · 3.50 FIP	22	SU	3.50	23.8%	9.1%	2.3%	.348	3.87	17.3%	7.8%	115	+0.37	3.13	144	88
Heath Holder R 2016 · 4.16 FIP	23	SU	4.16	21.1%	10.1%	2.8%	.287	3.30	22.3%	13.1%	247	-0.86	2.94	367	88
Cody Palmquist R 2016 · 4.31 FIP	22	SU	4.31	21.9%	9.0%	3.5%	.278	6.02	14.7%	7.1%	62	+1.71	4.31	104	88
Chris Gau R 2018 · 4.76 FIP	21	SU	4.76	20.0%	8.6%	4.1%	.290	3.19	29.5%	23.5%	37	-1.57	2.96	211	87
Peyton Williams R 2021 · 3.69 FIP	23	SU	3.69	22.3%	10.3%	2.1%	.311	4.82	22.2%	10.2%	100	+1.13	3.69	123	87
Nick Lockhart R 2022 · 4.44 FIP	21	SU	4.44	22.0%	9.9%	3.5%	.275	4.63	16.1%	5.5%	43	+0.19	4.44	140	87
Scott Williams R 2015 · 3.39 FIP	21	SU	3.39	22.0%	8.6%	1.9%	.238	3.73	19.3%	10.5%	76	+0.34	2.89	119	87
Kevin Coulter R 2019 · 3.27 FIP	22	SU	3.27	21.0%	7.4%	1.8%	.287	4.51	16.1%	7.6%	92	+1.24	3.27	128	87
Danny Dopico R 2015 · 3.87 FIP	21	SU	3.87	25.4%	10.8%	2.8%	.333	3.90	22.8%	8.1%	173	+0.03	3.00	318	87
Kyle Zurak R 2017 · 3.96 FIP	22	SU	3.96	21.2%	9.4%	2.6%	.302	3.42	16.7%	7.5%	121	-0.54	3.20	181	86
Jacob Bodner R 2015 · 3.40 FIP	22	SU	3.40	19.8%	9.7%	1.4%	.281	3.35	22.1%	12.4%	98	-0.05	2.93	124	86
Mason Fox R 2018 · 3.59 FIP	21	SU	3.59	21.9%	11.5%	1.6%	.260	6.72	21.3%	4.8%	30	+3.13	3.59	112	86
David Garner R 2015 · 3.81 FIP	22	SU	3.81	21.7%	10.0%	2.3%	.282	4.52	19.8%	5.2%	98	+0.71	3.81	154	86
Tyler Bray R 2015 · 4.07 FIP	23	SU	4.07	22.3%	9.1%	3.1%	.356	3.21	17.9%	7.6%	114	-0.86	2.82	152	86

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.3	65	24.2%	8.2%	1.07	4.01
Nick Wittgren ('23)	1.6	41	21.6%	7.0%	1.15	4.04
Buck Farmer ('24)	2.5	50	21.6%	10.5%	1.23	4.59
Dominic Leone ('23)	1.6	46	24.2%	10.1%	1.33	3.81
Jacob Barnes ('24)	1.5	42	22.1%	9.6%	1.21	4.58
Joe Jiménez ('24)	1.9	53	29.8%	8.6%	1.11	4.06
JT Chargois ('24)	1.2	33	23.3%	9.3%	0.97	3.35