Alexis Paulino — OGILVIE

Alexis Paulino P FCL Yankees

Age 24 RHP 6'0" / 175 lbs ROK

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTION0 act + 13 ip · rates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 129120vR 112

ERA5.02

FIP5.02

K%22.1%

BB%14.1%

K-BB%8.0%

ROS IP13

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 13 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2022	19	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Bombers	13	0	29	153	38	26	3	0%	2.3	16.9%	21.2%	-4.4%	1.7%	9.20	5.30	—
2022	19	ROK RAW	DSL NYY Bombers	13	0	29	153	38	26	3	0%	2.3	24.8%	17.0%	7.8%	2.0%	9.20	4.50	—
2023	20	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Yankees	10	0	22	119	25	30	0	0%	2.2	14.3%	31.5%	-17.2%	0.0%	12.88	5.89	—
2023	20	ROK RAW	DSL NYY Yankees	10	0	22	119	25	30	0	0%	2.2	21.0%	25.2%	-4.2%	0.0%	12.88	4.95	—
2024	21	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Yankees	15	1	31	147	44	25	1	7%	2.1	20.4%	21.3%	-0.9%	1.0%	6.89	4.62	—
2024	21	ROK MLE	DSL NYY Yankees	15	1	31	147	44	25	1	7%	2.1	20.4%	21.3%	-0.9%	1.0%	6.89	4.62	—
2024	21	ROK RAW	DSL NYY Yankees	15	1	31	147	44	25	1	7%	2.1	29.9%	17.0%	12.9%	0.7%	6.89	3.10	—
2025	22	ROK MLE	FCL Yankees	16	0	20	98	24	12	2	0%	1.2	16.7%	15.3%	1.3%	1.4%	4.12	4.39	—
2025	22	ROK MLE	FCL Yankees	16	0	20	98	24	12	2	0%	1.2	16.7%	15.3%	1.3%	1.4%	4.12	4.39	—
2025	22	ROK RAW	FCL Yankees	16	0	20	98	24	12	2	0%	1.2	24.5%	12.2%	12.2%	2.0%	4.12	3.81	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	24	MLB	NYY	12	0	13	55	12	8	2	0%	1.1	22.1%	14.1%	8.0%	3.0%	5.02	5.02	-0.1
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	25	MLB MLE	NYY	19	0	20	84	19	11	2	0%	1.1	22.7%	12.6%	10.1%	3.0%	4.85	4.78	-0.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	NYY	9	0	9	38	9	5	1	0%	1.0	22.7%	12.6%	10.1%	3.0%	4.85	4.78	-0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		8	0	9	36	8	5	1	0%	1.1	22.7%	12.6%	10.1%	3.0%	4.85	4.40	+0.0
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	187	117	23	0%	1.1	22.7%	12.6%	10.1%	3.0%	4.85	4.40	+0.4
Career	—	MLE		54	1	102	517	89	116	5	2%	1.9	17.2%	22.5%	-5.3%	1.1%	8.29	5.07	-0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		106	2	200	1014	175	228	11	2%	1.9	17.2%	22.5%	-5.3%	1.1%	8.29	5.07	-0.5

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Alexis Paulino (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.02	22.1%	14.1%	3.0%	—	4.78	22.7%	10.1%	20	-0.24	—	—	—
Todd Wellemeyer R 2003 · 5.14 FIP	24	SU	5.14	24.6%	14.8%	4.1%	.290	4.56	18.9%	4.8%	135	-0.58	3.35	615	88
Harrison Cohen R 2023 · 4.56 FIP	24	SU	4.56	22.4%	13.4%	3.0%	.282	4.18	22.3%	9.0%	119	-0.38	2.12	165	86
Colin McKee R 2018 · 5.00 FIP	24	SU	5.00	24.2%	14.7%	3.8%	.330	4.35	27.7%	12.9%	97	-0.65	4.18	148	86
Cole Gordon R 2019 · 4.09 FIP	23	SU	4.09	22.0%	12.7%	2.3%	.243	5.19	20.9%	9.5%	83	+1.10	4.09	112	86
Francisco Del Rosario R 2006 · 5.13 FIP	25	SU	5.13	19.4%	13.0%	3.7%	.290	3.93	19.7%	10.3%	26	-1.20	3.93	194	85
Hayden Snelsire R 2024 · 5.10 FIP	23	SU	5.10	18.9%	13.8%	3.4%	.272	4.28	20.0%	13.7%	135	-0.82	3.83	178	85
Hunter Parsons R 2021 · 5.38 FIP	24	SU	5.38	21.4%	15.3%	3.9%	.247	4.78	21.8%	10.2%	115	-0.60	4.73	183	85
Jake Gilbert R 2021 · 4.14 FIP	24	SU	4.14	22.1%	15.2%	1.8%	.314	4.65	18.2%	2.0%	53	+0.51	4.14	103	84
Sam Gardner R 2023 · 4.04 FIP	26	SU	4.04	23.8%	15.1%	1.9%	.298	3.23	26.7%	16.4%	76	-0.81	2.28	121	84
CJ Weins R 2024 · 4.55 FIP	23	SU	4.55	24.7%	15.9%	2.8%	.276	5.77	16.2%	-4.4%	76	+1.22	4.55	117	84
Craig Schlitter R 2016 · 4.53 FIP	24	SU	4.53	22.7%	15.4%	2.5%	.298	4.67	14.7%	4.2%	171	+0.14	4.25	222	83
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	83
Grayson Thurman R 2023 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	19.5%	14.1%	2.5%	.319	4.85	19.9%	10.5%	87	+0.22	4.58	132	83
Tyler Schimpf R 2019 · 4.04 FIP	23	SU	4.04	24.3%	15.9%	1.8%	.300	5.63	24.1%	7.1%	58	+1.59	3.37	126	83
Kasey Ford R 2022 · 5.12 FIP	24	SU	5.12	21.3%	14.7%	3.6%	.302	3.83	22.2%	5.5%	65	-1.29	2.53	114	83
Luis Vizcaino R 2000 · 4.11 FIP	25	SU	4.11	18.8%	11.5%	2.1%	.354	4.31	22.7%	14.9%	180	+0.20	3.07	564	83
Michael Bowden R 2011 · 4.93 FIP	24	SU	4.93	18.9%	12.2%	3.4%	.271	4.22	17.1%	8.1%	77	-0.71	3.21	269	83
Garrett Apker R 2024 · 4.01 FIP	24	SU	4.01	19.8%	11.2%	2.1%	.288	8.46	15.4%	-7.6%	11	+4.45	4.01	101	83
Colby Morris R 2021 · 4.11 FIP	24	SU	4.11	20.4%	10.7%	2.5%	.291	5.76	16.2%	4.4%	54	+1.65	4.11	105	82
Tyler Mitzel R 2019 · 4.34 FIP	23	SU	4.34	24.1%	12.0%	3.2%	.245	4.10	22.4%	14.3%	96	-0.24	4.03	142	82