Aubrey Smith

P Fayetteville Woodpeckers

Age 23 RHP 6'3" / 205 lbs A Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2037 peak 0.5 · 2030

Overview

APROSPECTMiLBFA 2038

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2026	22	AHOU	23	14	90	6.30	5.01	14.0%	11.8%	—	K 10.4% · BB 13.9% · FIP 5.95
2027PROJ	23	MLBHOU	10	10	63	5.74	5.74	13.5%	13.4%	-0.6
2028PROJ43% MLB	24	MLBHOU	5	5	35	5.37	5.25	16.1%	11.8%	-0.2
2029PROJ66% MLB	25	MLBHOU	9	9	56	5.11	4.98	17.7%	10.8%	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.8Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2037Service0.0First FA2038

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031MiLB2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Pre-Arb$1.0M+3

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 97%

CompsJacob Meador (age 23) · Ryan Jensen (age 25) · Cobi Johnson (age 23)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 142134vR 126

ERA5.74

FIP5.74

K%13.5%

BB%13.4%

K-BB%0.1%

Proj IP63

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 63 IP

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$3M ctrl surplus

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†3050

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2032

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2037

First FA Year 2038

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2031	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2032
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2034	Pre-Arb	$1.0M	—	—	—
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2037	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.5M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2026	22	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	23	14	90	399	56	47	11	61%	3.9	10.4%	13.9%	-3.5%	3.6%	6.30	5.95	—
2026	22	A MLE	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	23	14	90	399	56	47	11	61%	3.9	10.4%	13.9%	-3.5%	3.6%	6.30	5.95	—
2026	22	A RAW	Fayetteville Woodpeckers	23	14	90	399	56	47	11	61%	3.9	14.0%	11.8%	2.3%	2.8%	6.30	5.01	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	23	MLB	HOU	10	10	63	266	36	36	8	100%	6.3	13.5%	13.4%	0.1%	3.1%	5.74	5.74	-0.6
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	24	MLB MLE	HOU	13	13	83	350	56	41	11	100%	6.4	16.1%	11.8%	4.3%	3.1%	5.42	5.30	-0.4
2029	25	MLB MLE	HOU	13	13	84	355	63	38	11	100%	6.5	17.7%	10.8%	6.9%	3.0%	5.16	5.03	-0.1
2030	26	MLB MLE	HOU	13	13	84	355	66	38	11	100%	6.5	18.7%	10.7%	8.0%	3.0%	5.00	4.92	-0.0
2031	27	MLB MLE	HOU	13	13	83	349	65	37	11	100%	6.4	18.8%	10.7%	8.1%	3.1%	4.96	4.94	-0.0
2032	28	MLB MLE	HOU	12	12	80	339	63	37	11	100%	6.7	18.6%	10.8%	7.8%	3.2%	5.00	5.03	-0.1
2033	29	MLB MLE	HOU	12	12	77	323	66	33	11	100%	6.4	20.4%	10.2%	10.2%	3.3%	4.93	4.89	+0.0
2034	30	MLB MLE	HOU	11	11	72	304	61	32	11	100%	6.5	20.0%	10.5%	9.5%	3.5%	5.01	5.07	-0.1
2028	24	MLB CTX	HOU	5	5	35	148	24	17	4	100%	7.0	16.1%	11.8%	4.3%	3.0%	5.37	5.25	-0.2
2029	25	MLB CTX	HOU	9	9	56	236	42	26	7	100%	6.2	17.7%	10.8%	6.9%	3.0%	5.11	4.98	-0.1
2030	26	MLB CTX	HOU	10	10	67	283	53	30	8	100%	6.7	18.7%	10.7%	8.0%	3.0%	4.95	4.87	-0.0
2031	27	MLB CTX	HOU	11	11	70	296	55	31	9	100%	6.4	18.8%	10.7%	8.1%	3.0%	4.91	4.89	-0.0
2032	28	MLB CTX	HOU	11	11	71	300	56	32	9	100%	6.5	18.6%	10.8%	7.8%	3.1%	4.95	4.98	-0.1
2033	29	MLB CTX	HOU	11	11	70	296	60	30	10	100%	6.4	20.4%	10.2%	10.2%	3.3%	4.88	4.84	+0.0
2034	30	MLB CTX	HOU	10	10	66	279	56	29	10	100%	6.6	20.0%	10.5%	9.5%	3.4%	4.96	5.02	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		68	68	435	1839	346	197	57	100%	6.4	18.8%	10.7%	8.1%	3.1%	4.99	4.58	+1.6
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		31	31	200	844	159	90	26	100%	6.4	18.8%	10.7%	8.1%	3.1%	4.99	4.58	+0.7
Career	—	MLE		23	14	90	399	41	55	14	61%	3.9	10.4%	13.9%	-3.5%	3.6%	6.30	5.95	-0.8
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		51	31	200	887	92	123	32	61%	3.9	10.4%	13.9%	-3.5%	3.6%	6.30	5.95	-0.3

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Aubrey Smith (OGILVIE)	—	—	5.74	13.5%	13.4%	3.1%	—	5.08	17.5%	6.4%	251	-0.66	—	—	—
Jacob Meador R 2024 · 5.34 FIP	23	SP-	5.34	15.6%	14.0%	3.2%	.301	6.73	14.7%	-6.6%	50	+1.39	5.34	139	89
Ryan Jensen R 2001 · 5.03 FIP	25	SP-	5.03	13.5%	13.0%	2.6%	.285	4.82	13.4%	5.2%	185	-0.21	4.35	253	86
Cobi Johnson R 2019 · 5.52 FIP	23	SP-	5.52	16.0%	14.8%	3.5%	.257	4.54	19.9%	1.4%	41	-0.98	4.54	140	85
Tyler Schlaffer R 2024 · 5.08 FIP	23	SP-	5.08	14.5%	13.3%	2.8%	.298	4.13	20.3%	7.7%	190	-0.95	3.79	399	85
Carlos Marmol R 2006 · 5.89 FIP	23	SP-	5.89	16.6%	16.0%	3.9%	.252	3.03	31.5%	18.0%	231	-2.86	1.59	608	84
Ike Buxton R 2023 · 4.67 FIP	23	SP-	4.67	16.8%	15.2%	1.9%	.241	4.64	14.8%	-0.6%	123	-0.03	4.45	196	84
Justin Miller R 2002 · 5.01 FIP	24	SP-	5.01	14.5%	13.6%	2.6%	.280	5.41	12.5%	2.1%	82	+0.40	2.63	373	84
Jonathan Hughes R 2021 · 4.60 FIP	24	SP-	4.60	12.9%	12.5%	1.8%	.351	3.79	16.5%	6.2%	146	-0.81	3.44	219	83
Boone Whiting R 2015 · 5.33 FIP	25	SP-	5.33	11.3%	13.9%	2.6%	.337	4.88	10.9%	4.8%	132	-0.45	4.88	227	83
Tyler Brashears R 2017 · 5.47 FIP	23	SW	5.47	12.1%	13.0%	3.2%	.314	—	—	—	—	—	3.58	156	82
Luis Martinez-Gomez R 2024 · 5.22 FIP	21	SP-	5.22	13.9%	15.4%	2.5%	.237	4.69	20.8%	6.1%	105	-0.53	3.76	133	81
Oscar Verdugo R 2015 · 6.33 FIP	25	SP-	6.33	10.5%	13.9%	4.3%	.241	5.78	10.8%	-1.8%	74	-0.55	5.01	144	81
Jason Savacool R 2024 · 4.83 FIP	22	SP-	4.83	14.9%	14.1%	2.2%	.275	4.88	17.2%	4.6%	128	+0.05	4.26	225	81
Billy Buckner R 2007 · 5.43 FIP	23	SP-	5.43	11.9%	11.2%	3.5%	.305	4.73	18.3%	10.4%	104	-0.70	3.73	252	81
Noah Skirrow R 2021 · 4.55 FIP	23	SP-	4.55	18.4%	11.5%	2.8%	.306	4.71	16.1%	6.1%	316	+0.16	3.97	371	81
Nick Trogrlic-Iverson R 2021 · 4.98 FIP	23	SP-	4.98	12.7%	9.1%	3.3%	.348	3.92	16.5%	8.0%	135	-1.06	3.30	218	81
John Maine R 2005 · 6.04 FIP	24	SP-	6.04	13.0%	13.0%	4.3%	.242	4.20	20.9%	11.4%	421	-1.84	3.91	582	80
Mitchell Boggs R 2008 · 5.80 FIP	24	SP-	5.80	7.9%	13.4%	3.0%	.298	3.63	18.0%	8.6%	186	-2.17	3.21	330	80
Anyelo Gómez R 2016 · 4.66 FIP	23	SW	4.66	17.1%	12.2%	2.7%	.292	2.66	24.2%	15.6%	68	-2.00	2.66	145	80
Chase Cohen R 2019 · 4.69 FIP	22	SP-	4.69	15.8%	13.0%	2.3%	.317	4.22	22.1%	9.2%	85	-0.47	3.52	263	80

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 3,327 pitcher careers (1,251 from 1990-2025 + 2,076 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	3.1	78	18.0%	11.1%	1.23	5.14
Jack O'Connor ('81-'87, -0 WAR*)	1.6	64	18.6%*	11.4%*	1.20*	4.96*
Todd Wellemeyer ('10)	3.1	77	16.9%	11.2%	1.26	4.83
Lou Sleater ('50-'58, -2 WAR*)	1.5	60	19.6%*	11.2%*	1.30*	5.08*
Dustin Nippert ('10)	1.3	67	17.6%	11.2%	1.18	5.31
Jerry Johnson ('68-'77, -4 WAR*)	3.9	77	19.4%*	11.3%*	1.06*	5.08*
Justin Miller ('10)	1.9	63	18.1%	11.3%	1.17	4.82