Leandro Arias

SS Frederick Keys

Age 22 S/R 6'1" / 155 lbs A+ HR +9% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2036

Overview

A+PROSPECTMiLBFA 2037

ETA2029MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2025	20	A+Aberdeen Iron…	299	.219/.316/.273	2	4	42	—	.201/.272/.250
2026	21	A+BAL	408	.252/.362/.355	6	12	67	—	.222/.300/.306
2027PROJ0% MLB	22	MLBBAL	2	.206/.279/.282	0	0	59	-0.0
2028PROJ35% MLB	23	MLBBAL	157	.213/.286/.304	2	3	66	-0.1
2029PROJ46% MLB	24	MLBBAL	227	.217/.291/.319	4	4	71	-0.0

Next 3 projected WAR -0.2Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2036Service0.0First FA2037

2027MiLB2028MiLB2029MiLB2030MiLB2031Pre-Arb$0.9M2032Pre-Arb$0.9M2033Pre-Arb$0.9M2034Arb-1$0.2M+2

Skills · percentileMiLB Statcast 2026 A+

Whiff%74

Z-Con%70

K%66

BB%57

Speed57

Chase%55

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 -0 / P90 3, comp-based) · star 1% · didn't stick 86%

CompsJeremy Arocho (age 22) · Mack Chambers (age 22) · Roger Tomas (age 22)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†59

AVG/OBP/SLG.206 / .279 / .282

PA2

HR0

K%50

BB%8

BABIP270

ISO69

MLB%0%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$2M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 40 / POW 25

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT40

scouting grade only

POWER25

scouting grade only

EYE45

scouting grade only

SPEED45

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2031

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2036

First FA Year 2037

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2030	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2031
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2033	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2034	Arb-1	$0.2M	—	—	—
2035	Arb-2	$0.4M	—	—	—
2036	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.3M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2022	17	ROK	DSL BAL Black	—	190	157	34	7	2	1	27	41	4	10	3	217	344	306	650	89	284	22	14	304	25	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK	FCL Orioles	—	162	140	38	7	2	3	20	20	2	12	2	271	370	414	785	143	299	12	12	354	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A+	Aberdeen IronBirds	—	85	73	18	4	0	0	9	18	2	0	1	247	345	301	647	55	321	21	11	301	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A	Delmarva Shorebirds	—	274	230	49	9	0	3	31	51	5	6	7	213	320	291	611	78	253	19	11	280	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK	FCL Orioles	—	26	19	7	3	1	2	4	3	2	1	0	368	520	947	1.467	579	333	12	15	569	204	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A+	Aberdeen IronBirds	—	299	256	56	8	0	2	32	50	5	4	5	219	316	273	590	55	262	17	11	274	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A+	Frederick Keys	—	408	341	86	13	2	6	50	85	9	12	6	252	362	355	717	103	317	21	12	325	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL BAL Black	—	190	166	23	5	1	1	19	52	4	10	3	139	243	199	442	60	193	27	10	205	25	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	FCL Orioles	—	162	148	29	5	1	2	12	30	2	12	2	196	265	284	549	88	237	19	7	254	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A+ MLE	Aberdeen IronBirds	—	85	76	16	3	0	0	6	24	2	0	1	211	286	250	536	39	291	28	7	245	52	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A MLE	Delmarva Shorebirds	—	274	239	47	7	0	3	22	67	5	6	7	197	278	264	542	67	237	24	8	240	49	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	ROK MLE	FCL Orioles	—	26	20	7	3	1	2	3	4	2	1	0	350	480	900	1.380	550	258	15	12	470	204	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A+ MLE	Aberdeen IronBirds	—	299	268	54	7	0	2	21	65	5	4	5	201	272	250	522	49	247	22	7	231	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A+ MLE	Frederick Keys	—	408	360	80	11	2	5	31	111	9	12	6	222	300	306	606	83	292	27	8	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL BAL Black	—	190	166	23	5	1	1	19	52	4	10	3	139	243	199	442	60	193	27	10	205	25	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	17	ROK RAW	DSL BAL Black	—	190	157	34	7	2	1	27	41	4	10	3	217	344	306	650	89	284	22	14	304	25	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	FCL Orioles	—	162	148	29	5	1	2	12	30	2	12	2	196	265	284	549	88	233	19	7	254	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK RAW	FCL Orioles	—	162	140	38	7	2	3	20	20	2	12	2	271	370	414	785	143	299	12	12	354	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A MLE	3 teams	—	385	336	69	13	1	4	30	95	9	7	8	205	288	286	574	80	265	25	8	257	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A RAW	3 teams	—	385	322	74	16	1	5	44	72	9	7	8	230	339	332	671	102	273	19	11	304	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A+ MLE	Aberdeen IronBirds	—	299	268	54	7	0	2	21	65	5	4	5	201	272	250	522	49	256	22	7	231	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A+ RAW	Aberdeen IronBirds	—	299	256	56	8	0	2	32	50	5	4	5	219	316	273	590	55	262	17	11	274	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A+ MLE	Frederick Keys	—	408	360	80	11	2	5	31	111	9	12	6	222	300	306	606	83	305	27	8	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A+ RAW	Frederick Keys	—	408	341	86	13	2	6	50	85	9	12	6	252	362	355	717	103	317	21	12	325	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	17	ROK MLE	DSL BAL Black	—	190	165	23	5	1	1	19	52	4	10	3	139	243	200	443	61	193	27	10	205	25	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	18	ROK MLE	FCL Orioles	—	162	147	29	5	1	2	12	30	2	12	2	197	265	286	551	88	237	19	7	254	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	19	A MLE	3 teams	—	385	343	69	13	1	4	30	95	9	7	8	201	288	280	568	79	250	25	8	257	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A+ MLE	Aberdeen IronBirds	—	299	271	54	7	0	2	21	65	5	4	5	199	272	247	519	48	247	22	7	231	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A+ MLE	Frederick Keys	—	408	365	80	11	2	5	31	111	9	12	6	219	300	301	601	82	292	27	8	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	19	A MLE	3 teams	—	385	343	69	13	1	4	30	95	9	7	8	201	288	280	568	79	250	25	8	257	60	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	20	A+ MLE	Aberdeen IronBirds	—	299	271	54	7	0	2	21	65	5	4	5	199	272	247	519	48	247	22	7	231	42	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	21	A+ MLE	Frederick Keys	—	408	365	80	11	2	5	31	111	9	12	6	219	300	301	601	82	292	27	8	267	67	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	22	MLB MLE	BAL	0%	518	466	95	15	2	5	39	130	8	8	5	203	276	277	553	74	266	25	8	255	59	-25	-0	+0	+6	+11	-0.4
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	22	MLB CTX	BAL	0%	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	206	279	282	561	76	270	50	0	258	59	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	23	MLB MLE	BAL	35%	454	409	85	13	1	7	35	111	7	7	4	210	283	298	581	88	268	24	8	266	66	-18	-0	+0	+5	+10	-0.4
2029	24	MLB MLE	BAL	46%	490	442	94	15	2	8	38	118	7	8	5	214	288	312	600	98	270	24	8	274	71	-17	-0	+0	+5	+11	-0.1
2030	25	MLB MLE	BAL	52%	527	472	103	16	2	10	42	126	8	8	5	217	291	321	612	104	272	24	8	278	74	-16	-0	+0	+6	+11	0.1
2031	26	MLB MLE	BAL	54%	541	485	106	17	2	10	43	129	8	8	5	218	292	326	618	108	273	24	8	281	76	-15	-0	+0	+6	+12	0.2
2032	27	MLB MLE	BAL	54%	545	488	107	17	2	11	44	131	8	8	5	219	293	327	620	109	273	24	8	282	77	-15	-0	+0	+6	+12	0.2
2033	28	MLB MLE	BAL	54%	543	487	105	17	2	10	44	131	7	7	5	217	291	323	614	106	272	24	8	279	75	-16	-1	-1	+6	+12	0.0
2034	29	MLB MLE	BAL	53%	535	480	104	17	2	10	43	131	7	5	5	215	288	317	605	102	271	24	8	276	73	-17	-1	-1	+6	+12	-0.3
2035	30	MLB MLE	BAL	52%	526	472	100	16	1	9	42	130	7	4	5	212	285	310	595	98	270	25	8	271	70	-19	-1	-2	+6	+11	-0.5
2028	23	MLB CTX	BAL	35%	157	142	30	5	1	2	12	38	2	3	1	213	286	304	590	91	272	24	8	270	66	-6	+0	+0	+2	+3	-0.1
2029	24	MLB CTX	BAL	46%	227	204	44	7	1	4	18	55	3	4	2	217	291	319	610	102	274	24	8	277	71	-8	+0	+0	+2	+5	-0.0
2030	25	MLB CTX	BAL	52%	272	244	54	9	1	5	22	65	4	4	3	220	294	328	622	108	276	24	8	282	74	-8	-0	+0	+3	+6	0.0
2031	26	MLB CTX	BAL	54%	293	264	58	9	1	6	23	70	4	4	3	222	296	333	629	111	276	24	8	285	76	-8	-0	+0	+3	+6	0.1
2032	27	MLB CTX	BAL	54%	296	266	59	10	1	6	24	71	4	4	3	222	296	335	631	113	277	24	8	286	77	-8	-0	+0	+3	+6	0.1
2033	28	MLB CTX	BAL	54%	295	265	59	10	1	6	24	71	4	4	3	220	294	330	624	110	276	24	8	283	75	-9	-0	-0	+3	+6	-0.0
2034	29	MLB CTX	BAL	53%	284	255	55	9	1	5	23	69	4	3	3	218	291	324	616	106	275	24	8	280	73	-9	-1	-1	+3	+6	-0.1
2035	30	MLB CTX	BAL	52%	276	248	54	9	1	5	22	68	4	2	3	215	288	316	604	101	273	25	8	275	70	-10	-1	-1	+3	+6	-0.3
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	2100	1888	413	68	8	39	168	507	29	28	21	219	293	325	618	106	277	24	8	280	67	-67	-3	-2	+22	+46	-0.4
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	584	127	21	2	12	52	157	9	9	6	217	291	322	613	104	276	24	8	280	67	-21	-1	-1	+7	+14	-0.1
Career	—	MLE		—	5925	5301	1117	178	20	92	468	1440	93	105	66	211	286	304	590	93	269	24	8	268	67	-150	-5	-4	+48	+97	-1.4
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	582	123	20	2	10	51	158	10	12	7	211	286	304	590	93	270	24	8	268	67	-22	-1	-1	+7	+14	-0.2

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	4.9	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
/162	664	20	13	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#2Gordon Beckhamlast yr '19 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,764 PA	5.7	3,764	80	34	237	301	368	+13	+19	8.2	8.4
/162	664	14	6	+2.4	+3.4	1.4	pk7: 9
#3Ronny Cedenolast yr '13 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,783 PA	4.2	2,783	40	39	246	289	354	+28	+19	5.5	5.6
/162	664	10	9	+6.7	+4.5	1.3	pk7: 6
#4George Strickland'50-'60 * career totals — 8 seasons, 3,266 PA	4.9	3,266	36	12	219*	302*	329*	+28	+19	3.8	5.0
/162	664	7	2	+5.7	+3.8	0.8	pk7: 6
#5Lennie Merullo'41-'47 * career totals — 6 seasons, 2,264 PA	3.4	2,264	6	38	234*	283*	339*	+24	+15	3.3	3.3
/162	664	2	11	+7.1	+4.4	1.0	pk7: 3
#6Lena Blackburne'10-'27 * career totals — 5 seasons, 2,086 PA	3.1	2,086	4	54	215*	288*	334*	+13	+11	2.0	2.0
/162	664	1	17	+4.2	+3.4	0.6	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 4 projected seasons	3.2	2,101	38	28	216	287	319	+23	+12	1.1	1.1
/162	664	12	9	+7.1	+3.8	0.3	pk7: 1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Leandro Arias (OGILVIE)	22	40	25	45	45	201/274/274	73	266	3	5	25%	7%	59	-0.9	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Jeremy Arocho 2021 · A	22	48→44	36→30	48→60	47	224/284/295	71	288	3	10	22%	7%	65	-1.2	228/321/282	54	318	2	26	25%	12%	78	-0.3	221/328/267	46	302	1	34	24%	13%	75	-0.3
✕Mack Chambers 2022 · A	22	42	37→40	45→50	44	199/258/274	76	267	4	7	26%	7%	51	-2.2	213/275/311	98	279	8	11	25%	7%	66	-1.1	206/273/300	95	263	9	13	24%	8%	61	-0.8
✕Roger Tomas 2008 · A	22	42	40→30	50→45	43	204/252/295	91	259	7	5	24%	6%	54	-2.0	221/263/281	60	281	3	6	21%	5%	54	-2.0	231/268/265	34	288	1	6	20%	4%	51	-0.6
✕Elih Marrero 2019 · A	22	45	36→40	49→55	47	212/276/279	66	277	3	5	23%	8%	59	-1.6	212/271/292	80	283	5	9	25%	7%	60	-1.6	210/266/317	107	293	8	22	29%	6%	61	-0.4
✕Jose Herrera 2019 · A	22	42	38→40	45→40	43	201/244/281	81	250	5	3	22%	5%	47	-2.5	210/288/309	99	283	8	5	26%	10%	72	-0.7	214/297/304	90	284	9	3	26%	10%	72	-0.4
✕Chace Numata 2015 · A	22	45	39→40	48→40	45	215/265/294	80	257	6	6	19%	6%	59	-1.7	240/290/315	75	288	4	4	17%	6%	72	-0.7	248/299/320	71	292	3	2	15%	6%	74	-0.3
✕Elvis Perez 2018 · A	22	43	36→30	46→45	44	201/260/266	65	272	3	7	26%	7%	50	-2.3	201/244/292	91	286	7	6	31%	5%	50	-2.3	178/210/273	95	240	9	2	30%	4%	30	-1.2
✕Rey Bruguera 2014 · A	22	41	37→30	45→50	46	197/266/272	75	267	5	10	27%	8%	54	-2.0	189/248/252	63	286	4	4	33%	7%	42	-2.9	160/224/199	39	249	3	0	34%	7%	19	-1.5
✕Joseph Rosa 2019 · A	22	40→45	37→40	45→50	41	194/251/261	67	280	6	14	32%	7%	46	-2.6	206/271/296	90	295	7	11	30%	7%	62	-1.4	206/281/301	95	299	7	14	31%	8%	65	-0.8
✕Yonathan Mendoza 2015 · A	21	46	35→30	46→45	50	216/280/274	58	267	2	8	19%	8%	59	-1.6	244/296/307	63	293	3	6	17%	7%	72	-0.7	255/305/308	53	303	3	5	16%	6%	75	-0.3
✕Frainyer Chavez 2021 · A	22	44→47	36→40	50	44	210/266/274	64	282	3	15	26%	7%	54	-2.0	207/274/272	65	290	4	11	28%	8%	57	-1.8	223/291/306	84	291	8	18	25%	8%	69	-0.7
✕Terry Serrano 2009 · A	22	39	35→30	50→55	46	183/246/241	59	240	2	15	24%	7%	40	-3.1	207/288/279	72	316	3	15	32%	10%	64	-1.3	204/311/268	64	327	2	21	33%	13%	68	-0.5
✕Riley Unroe 2018 · AA	22	41→47	37→45	47→55	45	195/265/266	71	282	5	12	31%	8%	53	-2.1	212/278/300	88	296	7	12	29%	8%	65	-1.2	218/301/329	112	292	11	26	27%	10%	78	-0.1
✕Alfredo Angarita 2019 · A	22	44	35→30	47→55	45	207/270/266	59	285	2	12	27%	8%	54	-2.0	199/264/264	65	289	3	9	30%	7%	51	-2.2	130/215/146	16	199	0	7	31%	9%	7	-1.4
✕Arquímedes Gamboa 2019 · A	21	43→44	37→40	48→50	45	203/266/276	74	281	5	7	28%	8%	55	-1.9	190/267/267	77	281	5	14	31%	9%	54	-2.0	202/287/292	90	293	7	15	31%	10%	64	-0.7
✕Sean Rooney 2008 · A	22	42	39→40	47→30	43	203/248/288	85	251	7	6	22%	5%	51	-2.3	238/276/325	87	302	5	3	22%	5%	69	-0.9	237/275/328	90	301	6	2	22%	5%	66	-0.6
✕Louis Ott 2008 · A	23	47→48	39→30	45	45	225/288/305	81	300	6	8	26%	7%	70	-0.8	228/300/296	68	326	4	7	28%	9%	72	-0.7	227/305/281	54	329	3	6	29%	10%	68	-0.5
✕Aaron McKeithan 2022 · A	22	41	38→40	49→40	40	195/262/275	80	276	6	7	30%	6%	54	-2.0	219/293/300	81	280	8	4	23%	7%	72	-0.7	211/298/265	54	265	5	1	21%	8%	64	-0.3
✕David Gonzalez 2016 · A	22	45→43	35→30	47→45	45	211/258/270	59	261	2	8	20%	6%	50	-2.3	197/249/259	62	240	3	10	18%	6%	44	-2.8	185/240/237	53	221	2	10	16%	6%	34	-2.0
✕Deivi Estrada 2022 · A	21	43	36→30	46→50	47	200/276/265	66	284	3	8	29%	9%	57	-1.8	184/240/252	68	328	3	8	42%	6%	40	-3.1	144/185/202	58	313	3	4	52%	4%	4	-1.2

Leandro Arias

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps