Caleb Durbin

3B Boston Red Sox

Age 27 R/R 5'6" / 183 lbs MLB HR -5%K -4% Svc 0.953 · Ctrl thru 2032

Overview

MLB40-MANPre-ArbFA 2033

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	PA	AVG/OBP/SLG	HR	SB	wRC+	WAR	MLE AVG/OBP/SLG
2024	24	AAAScranton/Wilk…	375	.287/.399/.471	10	29	109	—	.259/.348/.395
2025	25	MLBMIL	506	.256/.337/.387	11	18	108	2.2
2026	26	MLBBOS	586	.248/.334/.378	13	20	96	1.5
2027PROJ	27	MLBBOS	585	.250/.332/.379	12	21	98	1.8
2028PROJ98% MLB	28	MLBBOS	565	.248/.330/.374	11	18	96	1.5
2029PROJ98% MLB	29	MLBBOS	554	.246/.327/.368	11	15	94	1.2

Last 3 seasons WAR 3.7 · Next 3 projected WAR 4.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

ContractESTIMATED

Control thru2032Service0.953First FA2033

2027Pre-Arb$0.8M2028Pre-Arb$0.8M2029Pre-Arb$0.8M2030Arb-1$3M2031Arb-2$3M2032Arb-3$3M

Skills · percentileStatcast 2025-2026

Whiff%90

Chase%90

Speed60

xwOBA43

Bat Spd20

Barrel%12

Form.234/.340/.339 · rolling true talent (60d window) · proj .242/.323/.368

CompsManuel Margot (age 27) · Chris Burke (age 28) · Shane Robinson (age 27)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONstats below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+†vL 9998vR 93

AVG/OBP/SLG.250 / .332 / .379

PA585

HR12

SB21

K%13

BB%8

BABIP270

ISO128

MLB%100%

Value2027 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit+$39M ctrl surplus

Tools · Recent Form · Splits · ContractCON 55 / POW 40

Toolsscout grade · Statcast %ile · 2025-2026

CONTACT55

Whiff%

902.3%

xAVG

410.244

POWER40

Barrel%

123.3

Avg EV

1084.1

Bat Spd

2068.1

EYE55

Chase%

9012.6%

SPEED55

Sprint

6027.9

Recent Formrolling true talent ⓘ

K%14%▼14% over 112 PA (60d) · proj 13%

BB%11%▲▲14% over 112 PA (60d) · proj 8%

ISO.105▼.068 over 88 AB (60d) · proj .125

HR/BB2.3%·1.4% over 72 BBE (60d) · proj 2.8%

BABIP.260·.254 over 71 BIP (60d) · proj .260

SLASH.234/.340/.339·proj .242/.323/.368

Platoon Splits2025-2026 · 602 PA

vs LHP

vs RHP

Edge

162

440

—

wRC+

100

▶▶R

wOBA

294

316

▶R

ISO

117

130

▶R

BABIP

221

264

▶▶R

7.4%

11.8%

◀◀L

BB%

6.2%

6.6%

▶R

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status Pre-Arb

MLB Debut 2025

Service 0.953 yrs.days

Team Control Through 2032

First FA Year 2033

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2027	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+2.2	$18M	+$17M
2028	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.5	$11M	+$10M
2029	Pre-Arb	$0.8M	+1.2	$8M	+$8M
2030	Arb-1	$3M	+0.8	$3M	+$0.7M
2031	Arb-2	$3M	+0.4	$1M	+$0.0M (cut)
2032	Arb-3	$3M	—	—	—
Totals		$5M		$40M	+$35M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2027 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2028+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2021	21	ROK	FCL Braves	—	62	56	15	0	1	0	5	3	1	12	1	268	339	304	642	36	283	5	8	299	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	A+	Rome Braves	—	124	109	24	7	1	1	8	15	6	3	2	220	309	330	639	110	245	12	6	292	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	A	Augusta GreenJackets	—	333	273	68	15	1	7	42	35	13	28	3	249	375	388	763	139	258	11	13	345	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	AA	Somerset Patriots	—	194	175	51	12	1	4	12	9	7	21	7	291	361	440	801	149	290	5	6	359	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	A+	Hudson Valley Renegades	—	97	78	26	5	0	0	14	9	5	15	1	333	464	397	861	64	377	9	14	401	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	INTL	Mesa Solar Sox	—	103	85	30	9	1	3	14	7	3	21	2	353	461	588	1.049	235	355	7	14	454	193	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AAA	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	375	310	89	23	2	10	47	37	11	29	3	287	399	471	870	184	297	10	13	382	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AA	Somerset Patriots	—	30	24	3	2	0	0	6	3	0	2	1	125	300	208	508	83	143	10	20	255	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	INTL	Salt River Rafters	—	117	93	29	5	1	5	17	6	4	29	1	312	439	548	987	237	282	5	15	423	173	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	MLB	Milwaukee Brewers	—	506	445	114	25	0	11	30	50	24	18	6	256	337	387	723	130	265	10	6	324	108	+5	+1	+2	+2	+11	2.2
2025	25	AAA	Nashville Sounds	—	58	54	15	5	0	2	3	5	0	3	2	278	316	481	797	204	277	9	5	343	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	26	MLB	Boston Red Sox	—	586	508	126	25	1	13	51	79	15	20	6	248	334	378	712	130	269	13	9	318	96	-3	+2	+1	+2	+13	1.5
▸ Career Totals (raw MLB only — historical actual)
MLB Career	—			—	1092	953	240	50	1	24	81	129	39	38	12	252	335	382	717	130	267	12	7	321	103	+4	+3	+4	+4	+24	3.9
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2021	21	ROK MLE	FCL Braves	—	62	58	12	0	1	0	3	4	1	12	1	207	258	241	499	34	223	6	5	221	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	A+ MLE	Rome Braves	—	124	112	22	6	1	1	5	20	6	3	2	196	268	295	563	98	211	16	4	232	43	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	A MLE	Augusta GreenJackets	—	333	286	66	14	1	5	29	45	13	28	3	231	329	339	668	108	244	14	9	295	86	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	AA MLE	Somerset Patriots	—	194	178	49	11	1	3	9	11	7	21	7	275	335	399	734	124	279	6	5	320	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	A+ MLE	Hudson Valley Renegades	—	97	84	24	4	0	0	8	12	5	15	1	286	381	333	715	48	327	12	8	318	101	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	—	375	324	84	19	2	7	33	45	11	29	3	259	348	395	743	136	275	12	9	329	109	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AA MLE	Somerset Patriots	—	30	26	3	2	0	0	4	4	0	2	1	115	233	192	426	77	136	13	13	213	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	MLB MLE	Milwaukee Brewers	—	506	445	115	27	0	10	30	50	24	18	6	258	339	387	725	128	265	10	6	327	108	+5	+1	+2	+2	+11	2.2
2025	25	AAA MLE	Nashville Sounds	—	58	55	14	5	0	1	2	6	0	3	2	255	281	400	681	145	258	10	3	290	82	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	26	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	586	510	122	22	1	13	50	79	15	20	6	239	325	363	688	124	269	13	9	310	96	-3	+2	+1	+2	+13	1.5
2021	21	ROK MLE	FCL Braves	—	62	58	12	0	1	0	3	4	1	12	1	207	258	241	499	34	222	6	5	221	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	21	ROK RAW	FCL Braves	—	62	56	15	0	1	0	5	3	1	12	1	268	339	304	642	36	283	5	8	299	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	A MLE	2 teams	—	457	398	87	20	2	6	34	66	19	31	5	219	310	324	635	106	244	14	7	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	A RAW	2 teams	—	457	382	92	22	2	8	50	50	19	31	5	241	357	372	729	131	255	11	11	331	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	AA MLE	3 teams	—	394	356	98	20	1	4	22	31	15	57	10	275	344	371	714	96	292	8	6	319	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	AA RAW	3 teams	—	394	338	107	26	2	7	40	25	15	57	10	317	412	467	880	151	326	6	10	394	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	522	449	112	27	3	9	48	63	15	60	5	249	342	383	725	134	269	12	9	320	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AAA RAW	3 teams	—	522	427	121	30	3	15	70	46	15	60	5	283	402	473	875	190	285	9	13	384	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	564	500	129	31	0	12	32	56	24	21	8	258	333	392	725	134	268	10	6	323	105	+3	+1	+2	+2	+12	2.2
2025	25	MLB RAW	2 teams	—	564	499	129	30	0	13	33	55	24	21	8	259	335	397	731	138	267	10	6	326	105	+3	+1	+2	+2	+12	2.2
2026	26	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	586	510	122	22	1	13	50	79	15	20	6	239	325	363	688	124	258	13	9	310	96	-3	+2	+1	+2	+13	1.5
2026	26	MLB RAW	Boston Red Sox	—	586	508	126	25	1	13	51	79	15	20	6	248	334	378	712	130	269	13	9	318	96	-3	+2	+1	+2	+13	1.5
2021	21	ROK MLE	FCL Braves	—	62	58	12	0	1	0	3	4	1	12	1	207	258	241	499	34	223	6	5	221	36	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	22	A MLE	2 teams	—	457	401	87	20	2	6	34	66	19	31	5	217	310	322	632	105	235	14	7	278	74	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	23	AA MLE	3 teams	—	394	354	98	20	1	4	22	31	15	57	10	277	344	373	716	96	295	8	6	319	102	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	24	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	522	454	112	27	3	9	48	63	15	60	5	247	342	379	721	132	265	12	9	320	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	564	503	129	31	0	12	32	56	24	21	8	256	333	390	722	133	265	10	6	323	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	26	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	586	516	122	22	1	13	50	79	15	20	6	236	325	359	684	122	269	13	9	310	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons)
2024	24	AAA MLE	3 teams	—	522	454	112	27	3	9	48	63	15	60	5	247	342	379	721	132	265	12	9	320	103	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	25	MLB MLE	2 teams	—	564	503	129	31	0	12	32	56	24	21	8	256	333	390	722	133	265	10	6	323	105	—	—	—	—	—	—
2026	26	MLB MLE	Boston Red Sox	—	586	516	122	22	1	13	50	79	15	20	6	236	325	359	684	122	269	13	9	310	96	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2027 season
▸ 2027 — full MLE projection (neutral park, full availability)
2027	27	MLB MLE	BOS	100%	544	480	117	23	1	12	43	70	16	20	5	243	326	368	694	125	260	13	8	314	98	-1	+2	+2	+2	+12	2.2
▸ 2027 — real world (MLB)
2027	27	MLB CTX	BOS	100%	585	517	129	28	1	12	46	76	17	21	5	250	332	379	712	129	270	13	8	321	98	-1	+2	+2	+2	+13	1.8
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2028	28	MLB MLE	BOS	98%	577	510	122	24	1	12	45	76	17	18	4	241	323	363	686	122	259	13	8	311	96	-2	+2	+1	+2	+13	1.5
2029	29	MLB MLE	BOS	98%	565	499	118	23	1	11	44	76	17	15	4	238	320	356	677	118	258	13	8	307	94	-4	+1	+0	+2	+12	1.2
2030	30	MLB MLE	BOS	98%	553	489	115	22	1	11	43	76	16	12	3	234	316	347	664	113	256	14	8	302	90	-6	+1	-0	+2	+12	0.9
2031	31	MLB MLE	BOS	98%	538	477	109	21	0	10	41	76	15	7	3	229	311	336	647	107	252	14	8	295	86	-9	+0	-1	+2	+12	0.4
2032	32	MLB MLE	BOS	98%	519	461	102	19	0	8	39	76	14	3	2	222	303	320	624	98	247	15	8	286	79	-13	-0	-2	+2	+11	-0.2
2028	28	MLB CTX	BOS	98%	565	499	124	27	1	11	44	74	17	18	4	248	330	374	705	126	269	13	8	318	96	-2	+2	+1	+2	+12	1.5
2029	29	MLB CTX	BOS	98%	554	490	121	26	1	11	43	74	16	15	4	246	327	368	695	122	267	13	8	314	94	-4	+1	+0	+2	+12	1.2
2030	30	MLB CTX	BOS	98%	542	479	117	25	1	10	42	74	16	12	3	242	323	359	682	117	265	14	8	309	90	-6	+1	-0	+2	+12	0.8
2031	31	MLB CTX	BOS	98%	527	467	110	23	0	9	40	74	15	7	2	237	318	347	665	111	261	14	8	302	86	-9	+1	-1	+2	+11	0.4
2032	32	MLB CTX	BOS	98%	509	452	103	21	0	8	38	74	14	3	2	230	310	331	641	102	256	15	7	293	79	-12	-0	-2	+2	+11	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	3789	3340	815	172	4	73	288	499	117	93	27	244	326	363	689	119	266	13	8	311	93	-30	+8	+2	+14	+82	7.7
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	573	141	30	1	13	49	86	20	16	5	246	327	370	697	124	268	13	8	311	93	-5	+1	+0	+2	+14	1.3
Career	—	MLE		—	5922	5224	1252	254	12	109	447	755	185	277	56	240	322	355	677	116	260	13	8	305	93	-32	+10	+3	+16	+96	9.5
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	573	137	28	1	12	49	83	20	30	6	239	320	354	675	115	259	13	8	305	93	-5	+1	+1	+2	+14	1.4

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Kolten Wonglast yr '23 career totals — 11 seasons, 4,283 PA	6.5	4,283	86	120	256	330	390	+15	+21	18.4	17.8
/162	664	13	19	+2.4	+3.2	2.8	pk7: 17
#2George Cutshaw'12-'23 * career totals — 12 seasons, 6,213 PA	9.4	6,213	25	271	255*	304*	400*	+22	+40	16.7	16.5
/162	664	3	29	+2.4	+4.3	1.8	pk7: 16
#3Bucky Harris'19-'31 * career totals — 9 seasons, 5,556 PA	8.4	5,556	9	167	242*	319*	362*	+20	+27	14.1	14.6
/162	664	1	20	+2.4	+3.3	1.7	pk7: 15
#4Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	4.9	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
/162	664	20	13	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 8 projected seasons	6.6	4,374	87	114	239	318	358	+16	+22	11.2	11.2
/162	664	13	17	+2.4	+3.3	1.7	pk7: 11
#5Cliff Penningtonlast yr '17 career totals — 10 seasons, 3,108 PA	4.7	3,108	36	84	243	310	341	+28	+29	9.2	9.5
/162	664	8	18	+5.9	+6.2	2.0	pk7: 10
#6Doug Baird'15-'20 * career totals — 5 seasons, 2,353 PA	3.5	2,353	6	118	235*	301*	401*	+8	+16	7.4	7.4
/162	664	2	33	+2.1	+4.7	2.1	pk7: 7

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Caleb Durbin (OGILVIE)	27	55	40	55	55	240/323/365	124	260	13	21	13%	8%	98	+1.2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Manuel Margot 2022 · MLB	27	50→55	46→50	51→60	51	249/308/378	129	281	13	21	17%	8%	94	+0.9	255/308/368	113	299	9	14	17%	7%	91	+0.7	255/306/357	102	300	7	12	17%	6%	89	+0.3
✕Chris Burke 2008 · MLB	28	49→56	45	52→55	49	242/310/371	129	273	12	17	16%	7%	93	+0.8	220/285/325	105	257	9	18	18%	7%	74	-0.6	206/270/295	88	246	7	22	18%	7%	60	-0.8
✕Shane Robinson 2012 · MLB	27	50→56	45	53→55	49	245/298/369	125	264	11	17	13%	6%	88	+0.5	244/308/348	104	280	9	13	16%	8%	87	+0.4	240/308/320	80	280	6	11	15%	8%	80	-0.0
✕Carlos Febles 2003 · MLB	27	50→52	42→40	53→55	54	242/319/350	108	277	9	18	16%	9%	92	+0.7	237/308/330	93	275	8	17	16%	8%	83	+0.1	229/292/254	25	269	0	22	14%	6%	60	-0.6
●Nico Hoerner 2023 · MLB	26	55→62	43→45	55→60	49	268/319/383	114	294	10	19	13%	6%	99	+1.2	277/334/383	106	302	9	28	11%	7%	105	+1.7	280/339/377	97	304	7	31	10%	7%	106	+1.9
●Eric Sogard 2013 · MLB	27	52→57	43→45	52→55	52	254/312/365	111	280	10	17	14%	8%	93	+0.8	244/301/330	86	276	6	16	13%	7%	80	-0.2	249/331/369	120	283	11	10	15%	10%	101	+0.9
●Jerry Hairston Jr. 2003 · MLB	27	52→55	42→50	54→55	53	247/315/359	112	269	8	25	12%	8%	93	+0.8	262/334/368	106	288	6	22	11%	8%	101	+1.4	262/320/400	138	281	13	15	12%	7%	104	+1.2
✕Fernando Rios 2006 · AAA	27	55	44→40	55→50	49	269/318/385	116	283	11	15	10%	5%	99	+1.3	248/303/343	95	285	7	13	15%	6%	84	+0.1	250/296/303	53	280	4	2	12%	6%	70	-0.2
✕Tommy Edman 2022 · MLB	27	53→58	46→50	56→55	47	261/310/399	138	292	13	21	16%	6%	99	+1.3	254/310/396	142	289	14	26	17%	7%	99	+1.2	250/310/395	144	285	15	29	17%	7%	100	+1.0
●Austin Barnes 2017 · MLB	27	51→55	44→50	55→50	51	248/314/373	125	286	10	17	17%	8%	95	+1.0	240/329/378	138	294	13	12	21%	10%	103	+1.5	228/331/374	146	281	15	8	23%	11%	105	+0.8
✕Kevin Newman 2021 · MLB	27	55→63	42→45	48→50	48	268/314/375	107	295	10	14	13%	6%	95	+1.0	244/288/338	94	269	7	10	12%	5%	76	-0.4	261/307/353	92	306	5	15	16%	5%	87	+0.2
✕José Peraza 2021 · MLB	27	52→62	43→45	48→65	45	252/296/369	117	278	10	13	14%	4%	88	+0.4	218/270/336	118	244	12	8	16%	5%	71	-0.8	200/251/300	101	226	11	5	17%	4%	54	-0.7
●Ha-Seong Kim 2023 · MLB	27	49→53	46→50	53→60	51	242/312/381	139	282	13	12	19%	8%	97	+1.1	245/329/379	134	286	14	25	18%	11%	103	+1.5	240/330/365	125	279	14	31	18%	11%	100	+1.0
✕Christian Colón 2015 · MLB	26	54→59	42→45	51→55	49	260/307/361	101	281	10	16	12%	6%	89	+0.5	252/303/332	80	292	6	14	15%	6%	81	-0.1	241/298/337	96	273	7	18	14%	6%	80	-0.1
✕Adam Everett 2004 · MLB	27	49→53	44→45	54→50	48	239/298/355	116	269	11	12	16%	6%	85	+0.2	246/292/361	115	276	11	16	15%	5%	84	+0.1	242/286/352	110	271	9	16	14%	4%	80	-0.1
✕Bryson Stott 2024 · MLB	26	52→56	46→45	55	48	259/313/391	133	301	13	21	19%	7%	99	+1.3	252/319/379	127	290	12	26	17%	9%	99	+1.2	247/323/373	125	285	11	29	16%	10%	99	+1.2
✕Ernie Clement 2024 · MLB	28	52→58	45→50	50	50	256/300/378	122	268	13	11	11%	6%	91	+0.6	263/295/391	128	276	12	11	10%	4%	92	+0.7	261/291/381	120	275	11	9	10%	3%	89	+0.5
✕Pokey Reese 2001 · MLB	28	50→54	46→45	60→55	50	248/308/381	133	274	13	26	15%	7%	95	+0.9	238/296/348	110	278	10	23	17%	7%	83	+0.1	233/291/327	94	277	8	24	18%	7%	76	-0.2
✕Hernán Pérez 2018 · MLB	27	52→58	48→50	56→55	42	260/290/404	144	299	16	24	20%	4%	93	+0.8	246/285/393	147	295	17	18	22%	5%	89	+0.5	240/280/378	138	295	16	18	24%	5%	83	+0.1
✕Tyler Saladino 2016 · MLB	27	49→47	42→45	59→55	46	237/289/344	107	283	9	25	20%	6%	79	-0.2	234/289/341	107	291	10	19	22%	6%	78	-0.3	227/287/327	100	289	10	17	24%	7%	74	-0.3

Caleb Durbin

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps