Danny Watson — OGILVIE

Danny Watson P Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders

Age 25 RHP 6'7" / 230 lbs AAA peak 0.2 · 2027

2026 ROS PROJECTION52 act + 6 ip · rates below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 112104vR 95

ERA4.13

FIP4.13

K%18.4%

BB%4.2%

K-BB%14.2%

ROS IP6

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 58 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF4545

CTRL7070

CMD6060

K†4545

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2021	20	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	3	0	3	16	2	4	0	0%	0.9	12.5%	25.0%	-12.5%	0.0%	16.88	5.21	—
2021	20	A RAW	Tampa Tarpons	3	0	3	16	2	4	0	0%	0.9	12.5%	25.0%	-12.5%	0.0%	16.88	6.10	—
2022	21	A MLE	Tampa Tarpons	38	0	58	264	66	35	3	0%	1.5	18.5%	15.6%	2.9%	1.4%	4.01	4.31	—
2022	21	A RAW	Tampa Tarpons	38	0	58	264	66	35	3	0%	1.5	25.0%	13.3%	11.7%	1.1%	4.01	3.31	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	0	63	251	82	25	6	0%	1.4	25.8%	11.1%	14.7%	2.8%	1.58	3.87	—
2023	22	MIX MLE	2 levels	45	0	63	251	82	25	6	0%	1.4	25.8%	11.1%	14.7%	2.8%	1.58	3.87	—
2023	22	MIX RAW	2 levels	45	0	63	251	82	25	6	0%	1.4	32.7%	10.0%	22.7%	2.4%	1.58	2.92	—
2024	23	AA MLE	Somerset Patriots	32	0	37	160	26	13	5	0%	1.2	13.2%	8.9%	4.2%	3.7%	5.06	5.12	—
2024	23	AA MLE	Somerset Patriots	32	0	37	160	26	13	5	0%	1.2	13.2%	8.9%	4.2%	3.7%	5.06	5.12	—
2024	23	AA RAW	Somerset Patriots	32	0	37	160	26	13	5	0%	1.2	16.2%	8.1%	8.1%	3.1%	5.06	4.49	—
2025	24	AA MLE	Somerset Patriots	43	0	57	235	57	8	6	0%	1.3	19.6%	3.7%	15.9%	3.0%	4.74	3.55	—
2025	24	AA MLE	Somerset Patriots	43	0	57	235	57	8	6	0%	1.3	19.6%	3.7%	15.9%	3.0%	4.74	3.55	—
2025	24	AA RAW	Somerset Patriots	43	0	57	235	57	8	6	0%	1.3	24.3%	3.4%	20.9%	2.6%	4.74	2.89	—
▸ 2026 season
YTD	25	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	42	2	52	224	59	22	6	5%	1.2	21.9%	8.8%	13.0%	2.9%	5.05	3.99	—
YTD	25	AAA MLE	Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders	42	2	52	224	59	22	6	5%	1.2	21.9%	8.8%	13.0%	2.9%	5.05	3.99	—
▸ 2026 season — so far · projected rest · full
2026	25	AAA RAW	NYY	42	2	52	224	59	22	6	5%	1.2	26.3%	9.8%	16.5%	2.7%	5.05	3.59	—
ROS	25	MLB MLE	NYY	6	0	6	27	5	1	1	0%	1.1	18.4%	4.2%	14.2%	3.0%	4.13	4.13	+0.0
2026 TOT	25	MLB MLE	NYY	—	—	58	251	64	23	7	—	—	25.5%	9.2%	16.3%	2.7%	4.95	4.01	+0.4
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	26	MLB MLE	NYY	67	0	70	296	57	14	9	0%	1.0	19.1%	4.7%	14.4%	3.0%	4.14	4.13	+0.3
2028	27	MLB MLE	NYY	66	0	69	291	57	15	9	0%	1.0	19.4%	5.1%	14.3%	3.1%	4.17	4.18	+0.3
2029	28	MLB MLE	NYY	64	0	67	282	55	15	9	0%	1.0	19.5%	5.5%	14.0%	3.2%	4.23	4.27	+0.2
2030	29	MLB MLE	NYY	61	0	64	270	52	16	9	0%	1.0	19.4%	5.8%	13.6%	3.3%	4.33	4.40	+0.1
2027	26	MLB CTX	NYY	32	0	34	144	27	7	4	0%	1.1	19.1%	4.7%	14.4%	3.0%	4.14	4.13	+0.2
2028	27	MLB CTX	NYY	44	0	46	194	38	10	6	0%	1.0	19.4%	5.1%	14.3%	3.1%	4.17	4.18	+0.2
2029	28	MLB CTX	NYY	50	0	52	220	43	12	7	0%	1.0	19.5%	5.5%	14.0%	3.2%	4.23	4.27	+0.2
2030	29	MLB CTX	NYY	50	0	53	224	43	13	7	0%	1.1	19.4%	5.8%	13.6%	3.3%	4.33	4.40	+0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		176	0	185	779	151	41	25	0%	1.0	19.4%	5.3%	14.0%	3.2%	4.23	3.88	+1.5
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	164	44	27	0%	1.1	19.4%	5.3%	14.0%	3.2%	4.23	3.88	+1.6
Career	—	MLE		203	2	270	1150	232	116	30	1%	1.3	20.2%	10.1%	10.1%	2.6%	4.07	4.12	+1.0
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		151	1	200	853	172	86	22	1%	1.3	20.2%	10.1%	10.1%	2.6%	4.07	4.12	+0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Danny Watson (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.13	18.4%	4.2%	3.0%	—	4.19	19.3%	14.3%	206	+0.06	—	—	—
Trey Cobb R 2018 · 4.45 FIP	24	SU	4.45	18.3%	4.9%	4.1%	.317	6.93	13.4%	3.6%	40	+2.48	3.94	192	87
Tyler Eckberg R 2023 · 3.93 FIP	25	SU	3.93	16.7%	3.3%	3.3%	.337	3.57	19.0%	9.5%	52	-0.36	2.50	172	87
Victor Alcántara R 2018 · 3.50 FIP	25	SU	3.50	19.0%	4.1%	2.7%	.289	5.48	14.8%	6.5%	61	+1.98	3.50	464	86
Ronnie Shaban R 2015 · 3.02 FIP	25	SU	3.02	18.6%	5.0%	1.6%	.268	4.32	14.1%	8.8%	55	+1.30	3.02	104	86
Ryan Halstead R 2017 · 3.30 FIP	25	SU	3.30	18.6%	4.9%	2.1%	.343	3.63	17.0%	9.9%	120	+0.33	3.12	222	85
Andres Avila R 2015 · 3.98 FIP	25	SU	3.98	16.0%	5.2%	2.9%	.316	4.13	20.3%	13.9%	73	+0.15	3.98	177	85
Logan Cozart R 2018 · 3.47 FIP	25	SU	3.47	18.3%	5.6%	2.2%	.250	4.23	19.5%	10.1%	106	+0.76	3.47	316	84
Pedro Rodriguez R 2015 · 3.21 FIP	27	SU	3.21	16.4%	4.5%	1.7%	.272	3.70	13.1%	5.2%	43	+0.49	3.21	145	83
Reinier Roibal R 2015 · 3.11 FIP	26	SU	3.11	19.1%	4.5%	1.9%	.262	4.37	16.9%	9.8%	35	+1.26	3.11	133	83
John Brebbia R 2016 · 4.11 FIP	26	SU	4.11	18.6%	6.6%	3.2%	.346	3.20	27.6%	21.4%	215	-0.91	2.89	575	82
Jose A. Flores R 2016 · 2.94 FIP	27	SU	2.94	16.8%	3.3%	1.5%	.352	3.66	17.9%	8.7%	169	+0.72	2.94	237	82
Mike Morin R 2016 · 3.48 FIP	25	SU	3.48	21.6%	6.2%	2.6%	.291	3.81	16.4%	11.2%	176	+0.33	3.03	302	82
Andrew Robinson R 2015 · 3.77 FIP	27	SU	3.77	17.6%	6.3%	2.5%	.246	3.64	22.7%	14.4%	97	-0.13	3.19	160	81
Pedro Villarreal R 2015 · 3.32 FIP	27	SU	3.32	14.8%	4.1%	1.7%	.306	5.45	16.6%	13.5%	26	+2.13	3.32	102	81
Angel Duno R 2019 · 4.40 FIP	25	SU	4.40	17.6%	4.1%	4.1%	.311	—	—	—	—	—	2.63	430	81
Johnny Magliozzi R 2016 · 4.36 FIP	25	SU	4.36	14.9%	5.6%	3.3%	.246	3.22	17.1%	11.2%	68	-1.14	3.22	131	81
Tyson Perez R 2015 · 3.32 FIP	25	SU	3.32	15.9%	4.7%	1.8%	.224	4.75	12.2%	6.3%	44	+1.43	3.32	121	81
Davis Sharpe R 2023 · 4.35 FIP	23	SU	4.35	19.3%	5.7%	3.9%	.322	4.50	17.7%	9.6%	128	+0.15	3.24	260	81
Travis Hissong R 2016 · 3.01 FIP	25	SU	3.01	23.6%	4.9%	2.3%	.256	4.17	20.3%	6.8%	50	+1.16	3.01	122	81
J.R. Graham R 2015 · 4.39 FIP	25	SU	4.39	18.7%	7.4%	3.5%	.317	3.63	20.4%	10.1%	61	-0.76	3.31	125	80

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 133 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	1.7	68	19.2%	5.0%	1.21	4.20
Austin Pruitt ('23)	1.5	61	16.9%	5.6%	1.22	4.45
Craig Stammen ('22)	2.0	66	23.0%	5.4%	1.19	3.36
Jarlín García ('22)	1.5	61	19.6%	7.8%	1.33	3.79
Eli Morgan ('24)	1.3	66	23.8%	6.4%	1.46	3.97
Brandon Kintzler ('21)	1.5	50	16.2%	6.3%	0.91	3.57
Alex Claudio ('21)	1.5	59	16.3%	6.1%	0.76	3.66