Danny Watson
P
Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders
+0.5
WAR
Age 25
RHP
6'7" / 230 lbs
AAA
Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2033
peak 0.4 · 2026
ERA4.31
FIP4.31
xFIP—
SIERA—
K%21.0%
BB%7.3%
K-BB%13.7%
IP52
trajectory · 10 yrs
0.4peak
2026
K†5050
Career (MLE) + Projections
Park-neutral MLB-equivalent. MiLB translated via MLE factors. FIP-based WAR vs replacement FIP=5.3 (SP) / 4.95 (RP, <80 IP). FIP+ = runs above league-avg FIP · REP = replacement-level bonus.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | K% | BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 20 | A | Tampa Tarpons | 3 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 2 | 4 | 0 | — | — | — | 16.88 | — | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A | Tampa Tarpons | 38 | 0 | 58 | 264 | 66 | 35 | 3 | 18.5% | 15.6% | 1.4% | 4.01 | 4.31 | +0.4 |
| 2023 | 22 | AA | Somerset Patriots | 45 | 0 | 63 | 251 | 82 | 25 | 6 | 25.8% | 11.1% | 2.8% | 1.58 | 3.88 | +0.8 |
| 2024 | 23 | AA | Somerset Patriots | 32 | 0 | 37 | 160 | 26 | 13 | 5 | 13.2% | 8.9% | 3.7% | 5.06 | 5.14 | -0.1 |
| 2025 | 24 | AA | Somerset Patriots | 43 | 0 | 57 | 235 | 57 | 8 | 6 | 19.6% | 3.7% | 3.0% | 4.74 | 3.56 | +0.9 |
| ▸ 2026 Season | ||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | AAA | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | 4 | 0 | 5 | 22 | 7 | 3 | 0 | — | — | — | 5.06 | — | — |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | NYY | 52 | — | 52 | 218 | 46 | 16 | 7 | 21.0% | 7.3% | 3.0% | 4.31 | 4.31 | +0.4 |
| 2026 Total | 25 | MLB | NYY | — | — | 57 | 240 | 53 | 19 | 7 | 22.0% | 7.9% | 2.8% | 4.38 | 3.91 | +0.7 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections — Marcel base + age-bracket aging | ||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | NYY | 52 | — | 52 | 218 | 47 | 16 | 7 | 21.4% | 7.5% | 3.0% | 4.30 | 4.29 | +0.4 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | NYY | 51 | — | 51 | 217 | 47 | 17 | 7 | 21.6% | 7.6% | 3.1% | 4.30 | 4.30 | +0.4 |
| 2029 | 28 | MLB | NYY | 50 | — | 50 | 213 | 46 | 17 | 7 | 21.7% | 7.8% | 3.1% | 4.32 | 4.33 | +0.4 |
| 2030 | 29 | MLB | NYY | 49 | — | 49 | 209 | 45 | 16 | 7 | 21.6% | 7.9% | 3.1% | 4.35 | 4.37 | +0.3 |
| 2031 | 30 | MLB | NYY | 48 | — | 48 | 202 | 43 | 16 | 6 | 21.4% | 8.0% | 3.2% | 4.40 | 4.44 | +0.3 |
| 2032 | 31 | MLB | NYY | 46 | — | 46 | 195 | 41 | 16 | 6 | 21.1% | 8.1% | 3.3% | 4.47 | 4.51 | +0.2 |
| 2033 | 32 | MLB | NYY | 44 | — | 44 | 187 | 39 | 15 | 6 | 20.9% | 8.3% | 3.3% | 4.55 | 4.60 | +0.2 |
| 2034 | 33 | MLB | NYY | 42 | — | 42 | 179 | 37 | 15 | 6 | 20.6% | 8.4% | 3.4% | 4.64 | 4.69 | +0.1 |
| 2035 | 34 | MLB | NYY | 40 | — | 40 | 170 | 34 | 15 | 6 | 20.2% | 8.6% | 3.5% | 4.74 | 4.80 | +0.1 |
| 2036 | 35 | MLB | NYY | 38 | — | 38 | 160 | 32 | 14 | 6 | 19.8% | 8.9% | 3.6% | 4.85 | 4.93 | +0.0 |
| 2037 | 36 | MLB | NYY | 36 | — | 36 | 150 | 29 | 14 | 6 | 19.4% | 9.1% | 3.8% | 4.98 | 5.06 | -0.0 |
| ▸ Career (all levels · actual + projected) | ||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 165 | 0 | 223 | 948 | 190 | 99 | 24 | 20.0% | 10.5% | 2.5% | 3.87 | 4.12 | +3.0 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 148 | 0 | 200 | 849 | 170 | 89 | 21 | 20.0% | 10.5% | 2.5% | 3.87 | 4.12 | +2.7 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Danny Watson (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.31 | 21.0% | 7.3% | 3.0% | — | 4.31 | 21.6% | 13.9% | 154 | -0.00 | — | — | — |
| Hunter Dollander R 2026 · 3.90 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.90 | 19.2% | 5.7% | 3.1% | .311 | 6.77 | 17.6% | -0.7% | 51 | +2.87 | 3.90 | 106 | 95 |
| Casey Cobb R 2026 · 3.52 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.52 | 21.8% | 6.2% | 2.7% | .261 | 5.56 | 17.2% | 8.3% | 118 | +2.04 | 3.52 | 191 | 90 |
| Ryan Watson R 2026 · 4.17 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.17 | 18.6% | 4.9% | 3.7% | .342 | 5.44 | 13.1% | 5.4% | 98 | +1.27 | 4.17 | 165 | 89 |
| Trey Cobb R 2025 · 4.45 FIP | 24 | SW | 4.45 | 18.3% | 4.9% | 4.2% | .317 | 6.91 | 13.4% | 3.6% | 40 | +2.46 | 3.95 | 192 | 89 |
| Matt Carasiti R 2026 · 3.68 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.68 | 22.2% | 7.6% | 2.7% | .313 | 3.35 | 23.4% | 12.8% | 93 | -0.33 | 2.78 | 312 | 88 |
| Nick Merkel R 2026 · 3.99 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.99 | 22.8% | 7.1% | 3.5% | .284 | 3.18 | 21.4% | 10.4% | 103 | -0.81 | 3.13 | 179 | 88 |
| Connor Schultz R 2026 · 3.89 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.89 | 19.7% | 5.3% | 3.2% | .283 | 3.52 | 18.5% | 12.1% | 89 | -0.37 | 3.52 | 136 | 88 |
| Mike Morin R 2026 · 3.47 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.47 | 21.6% | 6.2% | 2.6% | .291 | 3.76 | 16.4% | 11.2% | 176 | +0.29 | 3.03 | 302 | 88 |
| Reinier Roibal R 2027 · 3.11 FIP | 26 | SW | 3.11 | 19.1% | 4.5% | 1.9% | .262 | 4.36 | 16.9% | 9.8% | 35 | +1.25 | 3.11 | 133 | 88 |
| Colton Hock R 2026 · 3.77 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.77 | 21.3% | 7.2% | 2.8% | .304 | 3.84 | 17.7% | 11.7% | 60 | +0.07 | 3.28 | 253 | 85 |
| Yaya Chentouf R 2026 · 4.18 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.18 | 21.7% | 6.8% | 3.7% | .282 | 5.14 | 13.0% | -1.8% | 29 | +0.96 | 3.40 | 225 | 85 |
| J.R. Graham R 2026 · 4.37 FIP | 25 | SW | 4.37 | 18.7% | 7.4% | 3.5% | .317 | 3.65 | 20.4% | 10.1% | 61 | -0.72 | 3.31 | 125 | 85 |
| John Brebbia R 2027 · 4.15 FIP | 26 | SW | 4.15 | 18.6% | 6.6% | 3.3% | .346 | 3.23 | 27.6% | 21.4% | 215 | -0.92 | 2.96 | 523 | 85 |
| James Farris R 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.73 | 24.4% | 6.6% | 3.4% | .284 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.51 | 170 | 84 |
| Josh Martin R 2026 · 3.10 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.10 | 24.1% | 7.4% | 2.0% | .257 | 2.97 | 20.7% | 13.6% | 124 | -0.13 | 2.43 | 225 | 84 |
| Logan Cozart R 2026 · 3.53 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.53 | 18.3% | 5.6% | 2.3% | .250 | 4.21 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 106 | +0.68 | 3.53 | 316 | 84 |
| Bryan Shaw R 2028 · 3.91 FIP | 27 | SW | 3.91 | 20.4% | 6.8% | 3.0% | .276 | 3.53 | 23.3% | 15.0% | 198 | -0.38 | 2.86 | 596 | 84 |
| Nelson Gonzalez R 2026 · 3.40 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.40 | 19.6% | 7.7% | 1.8% | .293 | 5.06 | 17.7% | 7.8% | 115 | +1.66 | 3.40 | 258 | 84 |
| Travis Hissong R 2026 · 3.02 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.02 | 23.6% | 4.9% | 2.4% | .256 | 4.13 | 20.3% | 6.8% | 50 | +1.11 | 3.02 | 122 | 84 |
| Jonathan Brand R 2026 · 3.37 FIP | 25 | SW | 3.37 | 22.1% | 7.8% | 2.1% | .274 | — | — | — | — | — | 3.37 | 134 | 84 |
Contract
ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)
Status MiLB
MLB Debut 2028
Service 0 yrs (est)
Team Control Through 2033
First FA Year 2034
| Year | Status | Salary | Proj WAR | Value | Surplus |
| 2026 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2027 | MiLB | still in minors · estimated debut 2028 | |||
| 2028 | Pre-Arb | $0.8M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.9M |
| 2029 | Arb-1 | $0.8M | +0.4 | $2M | +$0.9M |
| 2030 | Arb-2 | $0.9M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.5M |
| 2031 | Arb-3 | $0.8M | +0.3 | $1M | +$0.6M |
| 2032 | Ext / FA-deal | $1M | +0.2 | $1.0M | -$0.1M |
| 2033 | Ext / FA-deal | $1.0M | +0.2 | $1.0M | -$0.0M |
| Totals | $5M | $8M | +$3M | ||