Danny Watson
P
Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders
Age 25
RHP
6'7" / 230 lbs
AAA
peak 0.1 · 2026
2026 ROS PROJECTION36 act + 70 ip · rates below = ROS only
wRC+ AGAINSTvL 113104vR 95
ERA4.13
FIP4.13
K%18.4%
BB%4.3%
K-BB%14.1%
ROS IP70
Value2026 · WAR
Runs saved vs league avg · 106 IP
Grades · Contract
Contract
No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.
Career Stats + Projections
Viewactual = stats as recorded (seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations
Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed
Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.
| Year | Age | Lvl | Team | G | GS | IP | BF | K | BB | HR | GS% | IP/G | K% | BB% | K-BB% | HR% | ERA | FIP | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 20 | A | Tampa Tarpons | 3 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0% | 0.9 | 12.5% | 25.0% | -12.5% | 0.0% | 16.88 | 5.21 | — |
| 2021 | 20 | A | Tampa Tarpons | 3 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0% | 0.9 | 12.5% | 25.0% | -12.5% | 0.0% | 16.88 | 6.10 | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A | Tampa Tarpons | 38 | 0 | 58 | 264 | 66 | 35 | 3 | 0% | 1.5 | 18.5% | 15.6% | 2.9% | 1.4% | 4.01 | 4.29 | — |
| 2022 | 21 | A | Tampa Tarpons | 38 | 0 | 58 | 264 | 66 | 35 | 3 | 0% | 1.5 | 25.0% | 13.3% | 11.7% | 1.1% | 4.01 | 3.31 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 45 | 0 | 63 | 251 | 82 | 25 | 6 | 0% | 1.4 | 25.8% | 11.1% | 14.7% | 2.7% | 1.58 | 3.83 | — |
| 2023 | 22 | MIX | 2 levels | 45 | 0 | 63 | 251 | 82 | 25 | 6 | 0% | 1.4 | 32.7% | 10.0% | 22.7% | 2.4% | 1.58 | 2.92 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA | Somerset Patriots | 32 | 0 | 37 | 160 | 26 | 13 | 5 | 0% | 1.2 | 13.2% | 8.9% | 4.2% | 3.6% | 5.06 | 5.07 | — |
| 2024 | 23 | AA | Somerset Patriots | 32 | 0 | 37 | 160 | 26 | 13 | 5 | 0% | 1.2 | 16.2% | 8.1% | 8.1% | 3.1% | 5.06 | 4.49 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA | Somerset Patriots | 43 | 0 | 57 | 235 | 57 | 8 | 6 | 0% | 1.3 | 19.6% | 3.7% | 15.9% | 2.9% | 4.74 | 3.50 | — |
| 2025 | 24 | AA | Somerset Patriots | 43 | 0 | 57 | 235 | 57 | 8 | 6 | 0% | 1.3 | 24.3% | 3.4% | 20.9% | 2.6% | 4.74 | 2.89 | — |
| ▸ 2026 Season | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2026 | 25 | AAA | Scranton/Wilkes-Barre RailRiders | 27 | 2 | 36 | 158 | 43 | 16 | 4 | 7% | 1.3 | 23.9% | 10.6% | 13.3% | 2.8% | 4.75 | 3.95 | +0.3 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | NYY | 67 | 0 | 70 | 296 | 54 | 13 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.4% | 4.3% | 14.1% | 3.0% | 4.13 | 4.13 | +0.5 |
| ROS | 25 | MLB | NYY | 7 | 0 | 7 | 30 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0% | 1.0 | 18.4% | 4.3% | 14.1% | 3.0% | 4.13 | 4.13 | +0.0 |
| 2026 TOT | 25 | MLB | NYY | — | — | 106 | 454 | 97 | 29 | 13 | — | — | 21.5% | 6.3% | 15.1% | 2.8% | 4.34 | 4.07 | +1.6 |
| 2026 FULL | 25 | MLB | NYY | — | — | 7 | 30 | 5 | 1 | 1 | — | — | 18.4% | 4.3% | 14.1% | 3.0% | 4.13 | 3.75 | +0.1 |
| ▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘ | |||||||||||||||||||
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | NYY | 67 | 0 | 70 | 296 | 57 | 14 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.1% | 4.8% | 14.4% | 3.0% | 4.13 | 4.12 | +0.5 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | NYY | 66 | 0 | 69 | 291 | 57 | 15 | 9 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.4% | 5.2% | 14.3% | 3.1% | 4.16 | 4.18 | +0.5 |
| 2027 | 26 | MLB | NYY | 32 | 0 | 34 | 144 | 27 | 7 | 4 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.1% | 4.8% | 14.4% | 3.0% | 4.13 | 4.12 | +0.2 |
| 2028 | 27 | MLB | NYY | 44 | 0 | 46 | 194 | 38 | 10 | 6 | 0% | 1.0 | 19.4% | 5.2% | 14.3% | 3.1% | 4.16 | 4.18 | +0.2 |
| ▸ Career (MLB actual + context projections) | |||||||||||||||||||
| Career | — | 82 | 0 | 86 | 365 | 70 | 18 | 11 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.2% | 4.9% | 14.3% | 3.0% | 4.15 | 3.77 | +1.4 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 190 | 0 | 200 | 844 | 162 | 42 | 25 | 0% | 1.1 | 19.2% | 4.9% | 14.3% | 3.0% | 4.15 | 3.77 | +3.8 | ||
| Career | — | 188 | 2 | 254 | 1084 | 221 | 113 | 27 | 1% | 1.4 | 20.4% | 10.4% | 9.9% | 2.5% | 3.97 | 4.09 | +3.9 | ||
| / 200 IP | — | 148 | 2 | 200 | 854 | 174 | 89 | 22 | 1% | 1.4 | 20.4% | 10.4% | 9.9% | 2.5% | 3.97 | 4.09 | +3.1 | ||
Career Path Comps
What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection
| Profile at Match Age | Next 3 Yrs | Career | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Comp | Age | Role | FIP | K% | BB% | HR/BF | BABIP | FIP | K% | K-BB% | IP | ΔFIP | Low FIP | IP | Match |
| Danny Watson (OGILVIE) | — | — | 4.13 | 18.4% | 4.3% | 3.0% | — | 4.15 | 19.3% | 14.3% | 139 | +0.02 | — | — | — |
| Trey Cobb R 2025 · 4.42 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.42 | 18.3% | 4.9% | 4.1% | .317 | 6.79 | 13.4% | 3.6% | 40 | +2.37 | 3.91 | 192 | 88 |
| Ryan Halstead R 2026 · 3.55 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.55 | 18.6% | 4.9% | 2.5% | .343 | 3.81 | 17.0% | 9.9% | 120 | +0.26 | 3.31 | 222 | 87 |
| Andres Avila R 2026 · 4.01 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.01 | 16.0% | 5.2% | 2.9% | .316 | 4.13 | 20.3% | 13.9% | 73 | +0.12 | 4.01 | 177 | 86 |
| Victor Alcántara R 2026 · 3.63 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.63 | 19.0% | 4.1% | 2.9% | .289 | 5.67 | 14.8% | 6.5% | 61 | +2.04 | 3.56 | 464 | 86 |
| Pedro Rodriguez R 2028 · 3.39 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.39 | 16.4% | 4.5% | 2.0% | .272 | 3.71 | 13.1% | 5.2% | 43 | +0.32 | 3.39 | 145 | 85 |
| Ronnie Shaban R 2026 · 2.93 FIP | 25 | SU | 2.93 | 18.6% | 5.0% | 1.4% | .268 | 4.11 | 14.1% | 8.8% | 55 | +1.18 | 2.93 | 104 | 85 |
| Tyler Eckberg R 2026 · 4.46 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.46 | 16.7% | 3.3% | 4.3% | .337 | 3.52 | 19.0% | 9.5% | 52 | -0.94 | 2.56 | 172 | 84 |
| Reinier Roibal R 2027 · 3.07 FIP | 26 | SU | 3.07 | 19.1% | 4.5% | 1.8% | .262 | 4.33 | 16.9% | 9.8% | 35 | +1.26 | 3.07 | 133 | 83 |
| Logan Cozart R 2026 · 3.30 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.30 | 18.3% | 5.6% | 1.9% | .250 | 4.04 | 19.5% | 10.1% | 106 | +0.74 | 3.30 | 316 | 83 |
| John Brebbia R 2027 · 4.03 FIP | 26 | SU | 4.03 | 18.6% | 6.6% | 3.0% | .346 | 3.14 | 27.6% | 21.4% | 215 | -0.89 | 2.81 | 574 | 83 |
| Mike Morin R 2026 · 3.56 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.56 | 21.6% | 6.2% | 2.7% | .291 | 3.86 | 16.4% | 11.2% | 176 | +0.30 | 3.11 | 302 | 82 |
| Pedro Villarreal R 2028 · 3.34 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.34 | 14.8% | 4.1% | 1.8% | .306 | 5.91 | 16.6% | 13.5% | 26 | +2.57 | 3.34 | 102 | 82 |
| Johnny Magliozzi R 2026 · 4.21 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.21 | 14.9% | 5.6% | 3.0% | .246 | 3.31 | 17.1% | 11.2% | 68 | -0.90 | 3.31 | 131 | 82 |
| Andrew Robinson R 2028 · 3.58 FIP | 27 | SU | 3.58 | 17.6% | 6.3% | 2.1% | .246 | 3.53 | 22.7% | 14.4% | 97 | -0.05 | 2.96 | 160 | 81 |
| Travis Hissong R 2026 · 3.11 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.11 | 23.6% | 4.9% | 2.5% | .256 | 3.94 | 20.3% | 6.8% | 50 | +0.83 | 3.11 | 122 | 81 |
| J.R. Graham R 2026 · 4.38 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.38 | 18.7% | 7.4% | 3.5% | .317 | 3.55 | 20.4% | 10.1% | 61 | -0.83 | 3.30 | 125 | 81 |
| Angel Duno R 2026 · 4.45 FIP | 25 | SU | 4.45 | 17.6% | 4.1% | 4.2% | .311 | — | — | — | — | — | 2.63 | 430 | 81 |
| Tyson Perez R 2026 · 3.27 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.27 | 15.9% | 4.7% | 1.7% | .224 | 4.83 | 12.2% | 6.3% | 44 | +1.56 | 3.27 | 121 | 81 |
| Rafael Pineda R 2025 · 4.14 FIP | 24 | SU | 4.14 | 14.6% | 5.2% | 2.9% | .298 | 5.49 | 6.5% | -3.4% | 20 | +1.35 | 4.14 | 101 | 81 |
| Casey Cobb R 2026 · 3.73 FIP | 25 | SU | 3.73 | 21.8% | 6.2% | 3.1% | .261 | 5.72 | 17.2% | 8.3% | 118 | +1.99 | 3.73 | 191 | 80 |
Career Comps
Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Pool: 327 completed pitcher careers (2015-2024).
| Player | Yrs | IP/yr | K% | BB% | HR/9 | ERA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION | 3 | 70 | 19.0% | 4.7% | 1.17 | 4.14 |
| Austin Pruitt ('23) | 5 | 61 | 16.9% | 5.6% | 1.22 | 4.45 |
| Dan Otero ('19) | 5 | 53 | 16.7% | 3.0% | 1.12 | 3.93 |
| Fernando Salas ('18) | 4 | 59 | 22.5% | 6.6% | 1.22 | 4.42 |
| Chris Rusin ('18) | 4 | 89 | 17.9% | 7.1% | 1.01 | 4.43 |
| Eli Morgan ('24) | 4 | 66 | 23.8% | 6.4% | 1.46 | 3.97 |
| Craig Stammen ('22) | 6 | 66 | 23.0% | 5.4% | 1.19 | 3.36 |