Merritt Beeker

P Fredericksburg Nationals

Age 25 LHP 6'2" / 198 lbs A

Overview

APROSPECT

ETA2028MLB%0%

Year	Age	Lvl / Team	G	GS	IP	ERA	FIP	K%	BB%	WAR	MLE rates
2025	23	AWSH	38	1	63	1.85	2.37	30.2%	10.9%	—	K 22.4% · BB 12.8% · FIP 3.36
2026	24	AWSH	11	1	17	5.19	4.02	21.0%	9.9%	—	K 15.5% · BB 11.7% · FIP 5.03
2027PROJ	25	MLBWSH	57	0	60	4.92	4.92	20.5%	12.6%	-0.3
2028PROJ43% MLB	26	MLBWSH	24	0	25	4.85	4.84	21.1%	12.2%	-0.1
2029PROJ63% MLB	27	MLBWSH	35	0	37	4.82	4.83	21.2%	12.1%	-0.1

Next 3 projected WAR -0.5Projected rows: MLB playing time only, park and league context applied.

Contract

No contract data on file.

Scouting grades · 20-80

Stuff50Control35Command50

Career WAR0 WAR median (P10 0 / P90 0, comp-based) · star 0% · didn't stick 98%

CompsColton Johnson (age 26) · Mitchell Tyranski (age 25) · Will Gilbert (age 25)

2027 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONrates below = full-season projection

showingPROJ

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 110119vR 127

ERA4.92

FIP4.92

K%20.5%

BB%12.6%

K-BB%7.9%

Proj IP60

Value2027 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 60 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

STUF5050

CTRL3535

CMD5050

K†5050

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2027 so far)
2024	22	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	5	0	6	31	7	6	1	0%	1.3	22.6%	19.4%	3.2%	3.2%	11.37	5.42	—
2024	22	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	5	0	6	31	7	6	1	0%	1.3	22.6%	19.4%	3.2%	3.2%	11.37	5.42	—
2024	22	A RAW	Fredericksburg Nationals	5	0	6	31	7	6	1	0%	1.3	22.6%	19.4%	3.2%	3.2%	11.37	5.78	—
2025	23	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	38	1	63	258	78	28	2	3%	1.7	22.4%	12.8%	9.6%	1.0%	1.85	3.36	—
2025	23	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	38	1	63	258	78	28	2	3%	1.7	22.4%	12.8%	9.6%	1.0%	1.85	3.36	—
2025	23	A RAW	Fredericksburg Nationals	38	1	63	258	78	28	2	3%	1.7	30.2%	10.9%	19.4%	0.8%	1.85	2.37	—
2026	24	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	11	1	17	81	17	8	2	9%	1.6	15.5%	11.7%	3.9%	3.2%	5.19	5.03	—
2026	24	A MLE	Fredericksburg Nationals	11	1	17	81	17	8	2	9%	1.6	15.5%	11.7%	3.9%	3.2%	5.19	5.03	—
2026	24	A RAW	Fredericksburg Nationals	11	1	17	81	17	8	2	9%	1.6	21.0%	9.9%	11.1%	2.5%	5.19	4.02	—
▸ 2027 season — projected remainder (no 2027 stats recorded)
2027	25	MLB	WSH	57	0	60	253	52	32	7	0%	1.1	20.5%	12.6%	7.9%	2.9%	4.92	4.92	-0.3
▸ Career projection (2028+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2028	26	MLB MLE	WSH	57	0	60	251	53	31	7	0%	1.0	21.1%	12.2%	8.8%	2.9%	4.85	4.84	-0.2
2029	27	MLB MLE	WSH	56	0	59	247	52	30	7	0%	1.0	21.2%	12.1%	9.1%	2.9%	4.82	4.83	-0.2
2028	26	MLB CTX	WSH	24	0	25	106	22	13	3	0%	1.0	21.1%	12.2%	8.8%	2.9%	4.85	4.84	-0.1
2029	27	MLB CTX	WSH	35	0	37	156	33	19	5	0%	1.1	21.2%	12.1%	9.1%	2.9%	4.82	4.83	-0.1
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		59	0	62	263	56	32	8	0%	1.1	21.1%	12.1%	9.0%	2.9%	4.83	4.45	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	180	103	26	0%	1.1	21.1%	12.1%	9.0%	2.9%	4.83	4.45	+0.2
Career	—	MLE		54	2	87	370	77	48	6	4%	1.6	20.9%	13.1%	7.8%	1.6%	3.21	3.90	-0.4
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		124	5	200	851	178	111	14	4%	1.6	20.9%	13.1%	7.8%	1.6%	3.21	3.90	-0.7

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Merritt Beeker (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.92	20.5%	12.6%	2.9%	—	4.84	21.1%	9.0%	118	-0.08	—	—	—
Colton Johnson L 2024 · 3.92 FIP	26	SU	3.92	20.8%	11.0%	2.1%	.309	4.53	12.2%	-0.4%	48	+0.61	3.92	106	90
Mitchell Tyranski L 2023 · 5.14 FIP	25	SU	5.14	20.4%	13.6%	3.7%	.269	4.10	20.7%	6.1%	103	-1.04	3.46	145	89
Will Gilbert L 2019 · 4.42 FIP	25	SU	4.42	19.9%	10.3%	3.1%	.306	—	—	—	—	—	2.92	141	87
Robby Ahlstrom L 2024 · 3.89 FIP	25	SU	3.89	21.9%	11.6%	2.1%	.294	4.02	20.7%	11.1%	120	+0.13	3.79	332	87
Haylen Green L 2023 · 4.09 FIP	25	SU	4.09	18.6%	10.8%	2.2%	.317	—	—	—	—	—	4.02	104	87
Andrew Walling L 2024 · 4.05 FIP	24	SU	4.05	23.4%	13.2%	2.3%	.281	3.73	20.8%	7.5%	52	-0.32	3.14	161	86
Giovanni Soto L 2016 · 4.01 FIP	25	SU	4.01	21.3%	14.3%	1.6%	.348	4.18	25.6%	15.1%	25	+0.17	3.30	128	85
Aaron Fultz L 2000 · 4.00 FIP	26	SU	4.00	20.7%	9.4%	2.7%	.294	3.88	19.4%	12.5%	180	-0.12	3.46	480	85
Sean Mellen L 2022 · 4.01 FIP	24	SU	4.01	21.3%	10.4%	2.5%	.285	—	—	—	—	—	4.01	101	85
Hunter Schryver L 2019 · 3.76 FIP	24	SU	3.76	19.2%	11.2%	1.6%	.335	4.47	19.5%	6.0%	80	+0.71	3.58	206	85
Ryne Slack L 2017 · 4.42 FIP	25	SU	4.42	17.4%	13.2%	2.0%	.308	5.59	13.9%	1.8%	49	+1.17	4.07	212	84
Luis Perez L 2011 · 4.35 FIP	26	SU	4.35	18.4%	8.8%	3.1%	.317	3.32	22.3%	13.2%	42	-1.03	3.32	173	84
Nick Hagadone L 2012 · 4.74 FIP	26	SU	4.74	22.4%	12.9%	3.5%	.310	3.88	24.6%	14.7%	82	-0.86	2.97	141	83
Russell Smith L 2024 · 4.00 FIP	25	SU	4.00	19.0%	13.9%	1.4%	.266	—	—	—	—	—	4.00	175	83
Joe Kemlage L 2023 · 5.35 FIP	24	SU	5.35	17.6%	11.7%	4.1%	.349	—	—	—	—	—	4.42	128	83
Graeme Stinson L 2023 · 4.85 FIP	25	SU	4.85	19.5%	15.6%	2.6%	.302	—	—	—	—	—	3.56	146	83
Paul Fry L 2017 · 4.66 FIP	25	SU	4.66	21.2%	11.7%	3.4%	.338	3.43	24.6%	14.6%	159	-1.23	1.78	560	83
Michael Johnson L 2016 · 4.67 FIP	25	SU	4.67	18.2%	10.4%	3.3%	.352	4.72	17.4%	7.6%	129	+0.05	3.92	256	83
Hector Mercado L 2000 · 4.79 FIP	26	SU	4.79	21.7%	13.3%	3.3%	.270	4.22	22.9%	10.0%	111	-0.57	3.47	125	82
John Beller L 2023 · 4.16 FIP	24	SU	4.16	21.6%	14.2%	2.0%	.331	—	—	—	—	—	4.16	170	82

Career Comps

Completed MLB careers (no pro action in 2+ yrs) whose totals — actual + projected — most resemble this player's. Pool: 1,474 reliever careers (754 from 1990-2025 + 720 historical, 1901-2023), also matched on career-to-date at the same age. * Historical (Lahman) careers: rates era-adjusted to 2001-24 league levels; WAR is an OGILVIE proxy.

Player	162s	IP/yr	K%	BB%	HR/9	ERA
OGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION	0.9	59	20.9%	12.3%	1.12	4.86
Fred Lasher ('63-'71, -1 WAR*)	1.0	50	21.5%*	11.9%*	1.05*	4.68*
Tyler Yates ('09)	1.2	62	19.7%	12.0%	0.94	5.12
Bill Wilson ('69-'73, -0 WAR*)	1.3	52	20.3%*	11.5%*	1.13*	4.84*
Valerio De Los Santos ('08)	1.3	51	18.7%	11.5%	1.30	4.57
Gene Harris ('89-'95, -1 WAR*)	1.2	40	20.0%*	12.5%*	0.98*	4.96*
Blake Wood ('18)	1.4	72	21.7%	11.2%	0.90	4.47