Ryan Stafford — OGILVIE

Ryan StaffordC Frederick Keys

Age 23 R/R 5'10" / 180 lbs A+ HR +9% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

2026 ROS PROJECTION169 act + 23 ros · stats below = ROS only

showingROS

wRC+†46

AVG/OBP/SLG.200 / .304 / .250

PA23

HR0

K%26

BB%9

BABIP247

ISO50

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$5M ctrl surplus

Tools · ContractCON 25 / POW 25

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT25

scouting grade only

POWER25

scouting grade only

EYE50

scouting grade only

SPEED60

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.1	$0.3M	+$0.0M (cut)
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2032	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2033	Arb-1	$3M	—	—	—
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$-0.4M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2024	21	A+	Aberdeen IronBirds	—	19	17	2	0	0	0	1	8	0	1	0	118	167	118	284		200	42	5	132	-25	-3	+0	—	—	+0	-0.2
2024	21	A	Delmarva Shorebirds	—	63	49	16	3	0	0	9	12	3	9	1	327	459	388	847	61	410	19	14	383	145	+3	+1	—	—	+1	0.6
2025	22	A+	Aberdeen IronBirds	—	332	270	48	15	2	0	41	82	11	22	4	178	311	248	559	70	249	25	12	263	64	-14	+3	—	—	+7	-0.4
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2024	21	A+ MLE	Aberdeen IronBirds	—	19	17	1	0	0	0	1	11	0	1	0	59	111	59	170		172	58	5	98	-47	-3	+0	—	—	+0	-0.3
2024	21	A MLE	Delmarva Shorebirds	—	63	52	15	2	0	0	6	16	3	9	1	288	393	327	720	38	370	25	10	323	105	+0	+1	—	—	+1	0.3
2025	22	A+ MLE	Aberdeen IronBirds	—	332	282	41	12	2	0	29	109	11	22	4	145	252	202	454	57	212	33	9	205	25	-30	+3	—	—	+7	-2.0
2024	21	A MLE	2 teams	—	82	70	16	2	0	0	6	27	3	10	1	229	316	257	574	29	348	33	7	271	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A RAW	2 teams	—	82	66	18	3	0	0	10	20	3	10	1	273	392	318	711	45	367	24	12	324	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	Aberdeen IronBirds	—	332	282	41	12	2	0	29	109	11	22	4	145	252	202	454	57	230	33	9	205	25	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A+ RAW	Aberdeen IronBirds	—	332	270	48	15	2	0	41	82	11	22	4	178	311	248	559	70	249	25	12	263	25	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A MLE	2 teams	—	82	73	16	2	0	0	6	27	3	10	1	219	316	247	563	27	324	33	7	271	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	Aberdeen IronBirds	—	332	289	41	12	2	0	29	109	11	22	4	142	252	197	449	55	212	33	9	205	25	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2024	21	A MLE	2 teams	—	82	73	16	2	0	0	6	27	3	10	1	219	316	247	563	27	324	33	7	271	69	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A+ MLE	Aberdeen IronBirds	—	332	289	41	12	2	0	29	109	11	22	4	142	252	197	449	55	212	33	9	205	25	—	—	—	—	—	—
YTD	23	A+ MLE	BAL	—	169	147	23	4	0	2	13	47	5	10	5	156	248	224	473	68	210	28	8	209	28	-15	+0	+0	+3	+4	-0.8
▸ 2026 season
YTD	23	A+ RAW	BAL	—	169	140	25	5	0	2	20	35	5	10	5	179	303	257	560	79	219	21	12	263	28	—	—	—	—	—	—
ROS	23	A+ MLE	BAL	0%	23	20	4	1	0	0	2	6	1	1	0	200	304	250	554	50	244	26	9	236	46	-1	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
TOT	23	A+ MLE	BAL	—	192	167	27	5	0	2	15	53	6	11	5	162	255	228	483	66	219	28	8	212	30	-16	+0	+0	+3	+4	-0.8
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	BAL	30%	361	321	60	13	1	4	30	94	7	10	3	187	271	271	542	84	250	26	8	251	56	-19	+1	+0	+6	+8	-0.4
2028	25	MLB MLE	BAL	44%	413	368	72	15	2	6	34	106	8	11	4	196	278	296	574	101	253	26	8	261	63	-18	+1	+0	+7	+9	-0.1
2029	26	MLB MLE	BAL	51%	446	397	79	16	2	7	38	113	8	12	4	199	282	302	584	103	255	25	9	267	67	-18	+1	+0	+8	+10	0.1
2030	27	MLB MLE	BAL	52%	460	409	81	17	2	7	39	117	9	12	4	198	282	301	583	103	256	25	8	269	68	-18	+1	+0	+8	+10	0.1
2031	28	MLB MLE	BAL	53%	464	412	82	17	2	7	40	118	9	11	4	199	284	301	585	102	255	25	9	268	67	-18	+1	-1	+8	+10	0.0
2032	29	MLB MLE	BAL	53%	460	408	80	16	2	7	40	118	9	11	4	196	282	297	579	100	254	26	9	266	66	-19	+1	-1	+8	+10	-0.1
2033	30	MLB MLE	BAL	56%	453	403	78	16	1	7	39	118	8	10	3	194	278	290	568	97	253	26	9	263	64	-19	+1	-2	+8	+10	-0.3
2027	24	MLB CTX	BAL	30%	109	97	18	4	0	1	9	28	2	3	1	186	269	258	526	72	253	26	8	240	56	-6	+0	+0	+2	+2	-0.1
2028	25	MLB CTX	BAL	44%	183	162	33	7	1	3	15	47	4	5	2	204	287	315	602	111	257	26	8	251	63	-8	+0	+0	+3	+4	-0.1
2029	26	MLB CTX	BAL	51%	226	201	40	8	1	4	19	57	4	6	2	199	281	308	590	109	259	25	8	257	67	-9	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.0
2030	27	MLB CTX	BAL	52%	241	213	43	9	1	4	21	61	5	6	2	202	289	310	599	108	260	25	9	259	68	-9	+0	+0	+4	+5	0.1
2031	28	MLB CTX	BAL	53%	247	219	44	9	1	4	21	63	5	6	2	201	286	306	592	105	259	26	9	258	67	-10	+0	-0	+4	+5	0.0
2032	29	MLB CTX	BAL	53%	242	214	43	9	1	4	21	62	5	6	2	201	287	308	596	107	258	26	9	256	66	-10	+0	-1	+4	+5	-0.1
2033	30	MLB CTX	BAL	56%	256	227	45	9	1	4	22	67	5	6	2	198	283	300	583	101	257	26	9	253	64	-11	+0	-1	+5	+6	-0.2
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	1504	1333	266	55	6	24	128	385	30	38	13	200	284	304	588	104	260	26	9	255	61	-62	+2	-2	+27	+33	-0.3
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	576	115	24	3	10	55	166	13	16	6	200	284	304	588	104	261	26	8	255	61	-27	+1	-1	+12	+14	-0.1
Career	—	MLE		—	3494	3090	593	125	14	45	297	926	73	110	31	192	278	285	563	93	256	27	9	258	61	-130	+5	-4	+55	+67	-0.7
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	575	110	23	3	8	55	172	14	20	6	191	278	283	561	92	256	26	8	258	61	-27	+1	-1	+12	+14	-0.2

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Brendan Ryanlast yr '15 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,872 PA	4.3	2,872	19	67	234	295	315	+30	+85	10.6	11.0
/162	664	4	15	+6.9	+19.7	2.4	pk7: 11
#2Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	2.5	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#3J.P. Arencibialast yr '15 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,650 PA	2.5	1,650	78	2	213	260	414	+29	-4	4.2	4.2
/162	664	31	1	+11.9	-1.7	1.7	pk7: 4
#4Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	2.3	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.1	4.1
/162	664	13	20	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 3 projected seasons	2.3	1,506	23	38	197	278	296	+27	+12	0.9	0.9
/162	664	10	17	+11.9	+5.3	0.4	pk7: 1
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Ryan Stafford (OGILVIE)	23	25	25	60	50	175/261/237	61	244	2	12	27%	8%	46	-1.4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Nick Meyer 2021 · A	24	36	36→40	52→50	41	176/235/239	63	249	4	15	30%	6%	35	-3.4	212/281/292	80	276	8	14	24%	8%	65	-1.2	205/280/278	73	264	8	16	24%	8%	59	-0.8
✕Mike Martin 2016 · A	23	40	35→30	52→55	42	183/275/240	57	297	3	13	36%	8%	52	-2.2	223/279/284	61	291	3	17	23%	6%	61	-1.5	242/289/295	53	301	2	23	19%	5%	65	-0.5
✕Claudio Finol 2023 · AA	23	38	37→40	50→45	40	186/240/263	77	257	4	8	28%	6%	42	-2.9	207/267/299	92	292	8	10	30%	7%	61	-1.5	192/260/271	78	271	9	12	31%	7%	51	-0.6
✕Alfredo González 2015 · A	23	42	38→30	52→45	43	203/264/285	81	271	6	9	26%	6%	56	-1.9	233/294/295	62	311	4	6	24%	7%	70	-0.9	228/291/282	54	298	4	5	23%	7%	63	-0.7
✕Oliver Marmol 2009 · A	23	37	36→40	55	38	180/236/245	66	252	3	19	29%	5%	37	-3.3	186/267/274	88	282	6	13	34%	6%	57	-1.8	159/261/247	88	256	5	10	36%	6%	48	-0.7
✕Jose Curpa 2022 · A	22	40	36→30	58→55	46	185/273/254	70	286	2	24	33%	10%	54	-2.0	204/289/287	83	310	5	17	32%	9%	68	-1.0	191/292/252	60	291	4	23	31%	10%	59	-0.4
✕Will Piwnica-Worms 2013 · A	23	41	36→40	52→50	47	193/261/264	71	245	3	7	22%	7%	51	-2.3	207/282/289	82	278	6	8	26%	8%	65	-1.2	203/283/282	80	272	6	8	26%	8%	62	-0.7
✕Raul Siri 2018 · A	23	39	38→40	51→50	42	192/251/271	80	265	6	11	29%	7%	49	-2.4	199/265/283	84	347	5	9	41%	7%	57	-1.8	146/235/232	85	299	4	14	47%	8%	34	-0.6
✕Dwayne Bailey 2011 · AAA	24	41	35→30	53→50	40	195/250/249	55	288	2	14	32%	6%	42	-2.9	220/280/292	72	318	3	12	29%	7%	63	-1.3	229/294/291	62	333	2	11	29%	7%	65	-0.8
✕Logan Warmoth 2019 · A	23	45→40	36→40	54→55	42	210/274/279	69	306	3	10	30%	7%	59	-1.7	195/268/273	78	314	4	14	36%	8%	56	-1.9	190/273/288	98	292	9	24	35%	8%	59	-1.1
✕Coty Blanchard 2015 · A	23	41	36→40	48→45	47	192/261/260	67	258	2	6	25%	8%	50	-2.3	227/277/301	74	309	3	7	26%	6%	64	-1.3	246/290/315	69	329	2	7	24%	5%	70	-0.4
✕Jordan Serena 2016 · A	23	39→45	35→30	55→50	38	184/253/245	61	284	2	18	34%	6%	44	-2.8	195/251/259	64	298	3	10	33%	5%	45	-2.7	188/243/246	58	287	3	9	34%	5%	37	-1.9
✕Juan Montes 2018 · A	23	41	36→30	52→55	44	193/280/256	63	253	4	19	24%	6%	57	-1.8	212/285/291	79	294	6	12	28%	6%	67	-1.1	214/282/293	79	299	8	5	29%	4%	63	-0.2
✕Terry Serrano 2009 · A	22	41	36→30	51→55	45	194/254/257	63	262	3	15	26%	7%	46	-2.6	209/290/282	73	320	3	15	32%	10%	65	-1.2	204/311/268	64	327	2	21	33%	13%	68	-0.5
✕Rand Smith 2011 · A	24	41→39	37→30	53→50	45	197/260/265	67	265	5	15	26%	7%	50	-2.3	210/272/283	73	296	5	10	28%	8%	59	-1.7	198/269/240	42	290	1	4	30%	8%	45	-1.0
✕Steven Baron 2014 · A	23	35	40→45	53→50	34	179/213/275	95	257	7	9	33%	4%	34	-3.5	216/264/299	83	296	5	9	27%	6%	59	-1.7	237/293/310	73	315	4	8	24%	7%	69	-0.4
✕River Town 2022 · A	23	43→38	37→40	54→50	43	203/281/276	74	285	3	12	28%	7%	61	-1.5	210/295/314	104	266	10	15	23%	8%	76	-0.4	205/297/303	98	254	9	15	22%	9%	73	-0.4
✕Arquímedes Gamboa 2021 · AA	23	38→45	36→40	51→50	45	181/256/249	69	269	4	15	32%	9%	45	-2.7	201/280/295	94	290	8	14	30%	10%	65	-1.2	199/285/288	89	292	7	15	31%	10%	63	-0.8
✕Nick Sinay 2017 · A	23	45	36→30	56→60	49	205/317/266	61	285	3	23	26%	9%	75	-0.5	206/321/265	59	291	3	20	28%	8%	77	-0.3	182/323/214	31	272	2	26	28%	7%	65	-0.6
✕Rubendy Jaquez 2022 · A	23	42→40	37→40	54→55	42	202/254/277	74	276	4	21	27%	6%	50	-2.3	210/253/295	85	277	6	15	25%	5%	53	-2.1	203/231/280	77	257	5	16	23%	3%	37	-1.1

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps