Ryan Stafford — OGILVIE

Ryan StaffordC Frederick Keys

Age 23 R/R 5'10" / 180 lbs A+ HR +8% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

2026 ROS PROJECTION148 act + 172 ros · stats below = ROS only

wRC+†39

AVG/OBP/SLG.184 / .271 / .257

PA172

HR1

SB6

K%27

BB%8

BABIP257

ISO72

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · ContractCON 25 / POW 25

Toolsscout grade

CONTACT25

scouting grade only

POWER25

scouting grade only

EYE50

scouting grade only

SPEED60

scouting grade only

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.3	$0.9M	+$0.3M
2031	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	+0.2	$0.5M	+$0.0M
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$2M		$1M	+$0.3M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	21	A	2 teams	—	82	70	16	2	0	0	6	27	3	10	1	229	316	257	574	29	348	33	7	270	65	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	21	A	2 teams	—	82	66	18	3	0	0	10	20	3	10	1	273	392	318	711	45	367	24	12	324	106	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A+	Aberdeen IronBirds	—	332	280	41	11	2	0	31	107	11	22	4	146	258	200	458	54	230	32	9	208	17	—	—	—	—	—	—
2025	22	A+	Aberdeen IronBirds	—	332	270	48	15	2	0	41	82	11	22	4	178	311	248	559	70	249	25	12	263	59	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season (ACT · ROS-MLE · ROS-CTX · FULL)
YTD	23	A+	BAL	—	148	129	20	3	0	2	11	43	4	9	5	155	243	225	468	70	209	29	7	207	17	-14	-0	+0	+3	+4	-0.7
YTD	23	A+	BAL	—	148	123	22	4	0	2	17	32	4	9	5	179	299	260	559	81	220	22	11	261	58	-7	-0	+0	+3	+4	-0.0
ROS	23	A+	BAL	0%	172	152	28	6	1	1	14	47	4	6	2	184	271	257	527	72	245	27	8	236	39	-12	+0	+0	+3	+5	-0.4
ROS	23	MLB	BAL	0%	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0						248	0	0	223	29	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	-0.0
FULL	23	A+	BAL	—	149	130	20	3	0	2	11	43	4	9	5	154	241	223	464	69	207	29	7	207	17	-14	-0	+0	+3	+4	-0.7
TOT	23	A+	BAL	—	320	281	48	9	1	3	25	90	8	15	7	171	258	242	500	71	236	28	8	223	29	-26	+0	+0	+6	+9	-1.1
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	24	MLB	BAL	30%	361	320	60	12	1	4	31	95	7	10	3	188	274	269	542	81	251	26	9	252	51	-20	+1	+0	+6	+10	-0.3
2028	25	MLB	BAL	44%	413	367	72	15	2	6	35	107	8	11	4	196	280	297	577	101	255	26	8	262	58	-19	+1	+0	+7	+12	0.0
2029	26	MLB	BAL	51%	446	397	79	16	2	7	38	115	8	12	4	199	282	302	584	103	257	26	9	267	63	-19	+1	+0	+8	+13	0.3
2030	27	MLB	BAL	52%	460	409	80	16	2	7	40	119	8	12	4	196	280	296	576	100	258	26	9	269	64	-19	+1	+0	+8	+13	0.3
2031	28	MLB	BAL	53%	464	412	81	16	2	7	41	120	8	11	4	197	282	296	578	100	257	26	9	268	63	-19	+1	-1	+8	+13	0.2
2027	24	MLB	BAL	30%	109	97	18	4	0	1	9	29	2	3	1	186	269	258	526	72	255	27	8	241	42	-7	+0	+0	+2	+3	-0.2
2028	25	MLB	BAL	44%	183	162	33	7	1	3	16	48	3	5	2	204	287	315	602	111	259	26	9	251	51	-10	+0	+0	+3	+5	-0.2
2029	26	MLB	BAL	51%	226	201	40	8	1	4	19	58	4	6	2	199	281	308	590	109	261	26	8	257	55	-11	+0	+0	+4	+6	-0.1
2030	27	MLB	BAL	52%	241	214	43	9	1	4	21	62	4	6	2	201	285	308	593	107	262	26	9	259	56	-12	+0	+0	+4	+7	-0.0
2031	28	MLB	BAL	53%	247	219	44	9	1	4	22	64	4	6	2	201	286	306	592	105	261	26	9	258	56	-12	+0	-0	+4	+7	-0.1
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	1007	894	178	37	4	16	87	261	17	26	9	199	283	303	586	104	260	26	9	255	53	-53	+2	-0	+18	+29	-0.5
/ 162G	—			—	650	577	115	24	3	10	56	168	11	17	6	199	283	303	586	104	261	26	9	255	53	-34	+1	-0	+12	+18	-0.4
Career	—			—	2730	2407	457	94	12	32	236	737	57	94	26	190	278	279	557	89	256	27	9	256	54	-143	+8	-1	+49	+77	-0.9
/ 162G	—			—	650	573	109	22	3	8	56	175	14	22	6	190	279	281	560	91	256	27	9	256	54	-34	+2	-0	+12	+18	-0.2

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2024	21	A+	Aberdeen IronBirds	—	19	17	2	0	0	1	8	0	1	0	118	167	118	284		200	42	5	132	-41	-3	+0	—	—	+1	-0.2
2024	21	A	Delmarva Shorebirds	—	63	49	16	3	0	9	12	3	9	1	327	459	388	847	61	410	19	14	383	151	+4	+1	—	—	+2	0.7
2025	22	A+	Aberdeen IronBirds	—	332	270	48	15	2	41	82	11	22	4	178	311	248	559	70	249	25	12	263	59	-15	+3	—	—	+9	-0.3

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Danny Espinosalast yr '17 career totals — 8 seasons, 3,267 PA	8	3,267	98	64	221	297	378	+16	+36	11.0	11.4
	/162	664	20	13	221	297	378	+3.2	+7.3	2.2	pk7: 12
#2Brendan Ryanlast yr '15 career totals — 9 seasons, 2,872 PA	9	2,872	19	67	234	295	315	+30	+85	10.6	11.0
	/162	664	4	15	234	295	315	+6.9	+19.7	2.5	pk7: 11
#3Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	9	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
#3Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	/162	664	12	0	209	276	313	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#4J.P. Arencibialast yr '15 career totals — 5 seasons, 1,650 PA	5	1,650	78	2	213	260	414	+29	-4	4.2	4.2
	/162	664	31	1	213	260	414	+11.9	-1.7	1.7	pk7: 4
#5Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	6	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.2	4.2
#5Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	/162	664	13	20	225	280	350	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons	2	1,009	15	26	197	279	296	+18	+8	0.3	0.4
	/162	664	10	17	197	279	296	+11.9	+5.3	0.2	pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Ryan Stafford (OGILVIE)	23	25	25	60	50	171/258/242	71	236	3	15	28%	8%	29	-1.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Nick Meyer 2021 · A	24	35	36→40	52→50	40	172/231/233	61	252	4	15	32%	6%	24	-3.6	212/280/299	87	278	9	14	25%	8%	62	-0.9	207/281/290	83	267	10	16	25%	8%	57	-0.6
✕Claudio Finol 2023 · AA	23	38	37→40	50→45	40	187/240/263	77	259	4	8	29%	5%	35	-2.8	204/263/296	92	292	8	10	31%	7%	53	-1.5	181/246/258	77	260	9	12	32%	7%	35	-0.7
✕Mike Martin 2016 · A	23	40	35→30	52→55	42	183/275/240	57	297	3	13	36%	8%	46	-2.0	217/272/277	60	282	3	17	23%	6%	51	-1.7	231/276/282	51	286	2	23	19%	5%	51	-0.6
✕Oliver Marmol 2009 · A	23	37	36→40	55	38	180/236/245	66	252	3	19	29%	5%	29	-3.2	187/267/275	88	285	6	13	34%	6%	51	-1.7	159/261/249	90	258	5	10	36%	6%	42	-0.7
✕Jose Curpa 2022 · A	22	40	36→30	58→55	46	184/272/253	69	286	2	24	33%	10%	47	-1.9	206/292/291	85	310	6	17	32%	9%	65	-0.7	198/299/263	65	296	5	23	31%	10%	59	-0.3
✕Will Piwnica-Worms 2013 · A	23	41	36→40	52→50	47	193/261/264	71	245	3	7	22%	7%	44	-2.1	203/279/287	84	272	6	8	26%	8%	58	-1.2	196/277/278	82	262	7	8	26%	8%	53	-0.8
✕Raul Siri 2018 · A	23	39	38→40	51→50	42	192/251/271	80	265	6	11	29%	7%	42	-2.3	199/264/283	84	349	5	9	41%	7%	51	-1.7	149/237/238	89	307	4	14	47%	8%	28	-0.6
✕Alfredo González 2015 · A	23	42	38→40	52→45	43	203/264/285	81	271	6	9	26%	6%	50	-1.7	230/291/295	65	314	4	6	26%	7%	64	-0.8	225/288/284	59	300	4	5	25%	7%	57	-0.6
✕River Town 2022 · A	23	44→36	37→40	54→50	43	203/281/277	74	287	3	12	28%	7%	57	-1.2	205/290/306	101	264	9	15	24%	8%	69	-0.4	199/291/294	95	251	9	15	23%	9%	64	-0.4
✕Terry Serrano 2009 · A	22	41	36→30	51→55	45	194/254/257	63	262	3	15	26%	7%	39	-2.5	209/290/282	73	320	3	15	32%	10%	61	-1.0	204/311/268	64	327	2	21	33%	13%	64	-0.4
✕Cam Coursey 2022 · A	23	42	38→40	52→55	48	201/266/278	77	257	5	16	23%	8%	50	-1.8	211/289/288	77	274	5	10	23%	9%	63	-0.9	204/298/261	57	263	3	4	21%	11%	58	-0.5
✕Felix Cabrera 2011 · A	22	35	34→30	51→50	44	165/257/217	52	256	1	15	33%	8%	32	-3.0	196/250/265	69	281	4	13	29%	6%	39	-2.5	220/261/284	65	299	3	19	26%	5%	46	-0.5
✕Tyreace House 2011 · A	23	45→43	34→30	53→55	56	205/308/258	53	274	2	20	23%	12%	64	-0.8	195/266/246	51	279	3	18	28%	8%	42	-2.3	171/228/189	18	253	0	22	30%	6%	7	-3.1
✕Dwayne Bailey 2011 · AAA	24	42	35→30	53→50	40	195/250/250	55	290	2	14	32%	6%	35	-2.8	219/281/290	71	320	3	12	30%	7%	59	-1.1	227/294/286	60	334	2	11	30%	8%	59	-0.7
✕Juan Montes 2018 · A	23	41	36→30	52→55	44	193/280/256	63	253	4	19	24%	6%	52	-1.6	212/285/291	79	294	6	12	28%	6%	63	-0.9	214/282/293	79	299	8	5	29%	4%	59	-0.2
✕Jordan Serena 2016 · A	23	39→45	35→30	55→50	38	184/253/245	61	284	2	18	34%	6%	37	-2.7	195/250/257	62	306	3	10	35%	5%	37	-2.6	188/242/244	56	297	3	9	35%	5%	28	-1.9
✕Coty Blanchard 2015 · A	23	41	36→40	48→45	47	192/261/260	67	258	2	6	25%	8%	43	-2.2	223/272/296	73	306	3	7	26%	6%	56	-1.3	239/281/303	65	323	1	7	25%	5%	59	-0.5
✕Logan Warmoth 2019 · A	23	45→40	36→45	54→55	41	208/271/276	68	305	3	10	31%	7%	51	-1.7	189/263/266	77	312	4	14	37%	8%	46	-2.0	195/273/297	102	277	11	24	31%	8%	57	-0.7
✕Rand Smith 2011 · A	24	41→39	36→30	53→50	46	195/260/260	66	263	4	15	26%	8%	43	-2.2	207/272/280	73	299	5	10	30%	8%	53	-1.5	186/262/225	39	288	1	4	32%	9%	32	-1.1
✕DJ Jenkins 2017 · A	23	45	34→30	50→55	43	214/263/264	51	276	2	17	23%	6%	43	-2.2	217/268/262	45	307	2	14	28%	6%	45	-2.1	216/267/246	31	307	1	15	28%	6%	37	-1.2