Colton Bender — OGILVIE

Colton BenderC Fort Wayne TinCaps

Age 27 R/R 5'7" / 195 lbs A+ HR -7% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 83 proj PA

wRC+†67

AVG/OBP/SLG.211 / .277 / .321

PA83

HR1

K%27

BB%8

ISO110

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Viewactual = stats as recorded (prior seasons combined) + projected real-world MLB lines · MLE = level/park-neutral translations

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	22	A	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	86	79	14	2	0	1	5	46	1	1	1	177	235	241	476	63	394	53	6	201	12	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	A	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	86	77	20	3	0	1	7	29	1	1	1	260	329	338	667	78	396	34	8	303	90	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	ROK	2 teams	—	147	122	20	3	0	1	20	42	5	1	0	164	306	213	519	49	241	29	14	252	51	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	ROK	2 teams	—	147	111	24	4	0	2	31	29	5	1	0	216	408	306	714	90	275	20	21	346	123	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	A+	Fort Wayne TinCaps	—	171	146	27	3	1	3	18	62	2	2	0	185	283	281	564	96	289	36	11	257	55	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	A+	Fort Wayne TinCaps	—	171	140	29	5	1	3	24	47	2	2	0	207	331	321	653	114	283	27	14	296	85	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	A+	Fort Wayne TinCaps	—	168	155	22	6	0	1	9	57	0	0	0	142	189	200	389	58	212	34	5	170	-12	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	A+	Fort Wayne TinCaps	—	168	150	25	7	0	1	14	41	0	0	0	167	238	233	471	67	218	24	8	216	23	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 Season
2026	27	MLB	SD	—	83	76	15	3	0	1	6	23	1	1	0	197	265	276	541	79	281	28	7	272	67	-3	+0	+0	+1	+2	0.1
▸ 2027+ Projections WITH CONTEXT · MLB TIME ONLY ⓘPARK-NEUTRAL MLE · ALL-LEVEL PT ⓘ
2027	28	MLB	SD	26%	118	107	23	4	1	2	9	32	1	2	0	215	282	327	609	112	282	27	8	277	70	-4	+0	-1	+2	+3	0.1
2028	29	MLB	SD	37%	199	179	40	8	1	4	16	53	2	3	1	223	294	346	641	123	282	27	8	278	71	-6	+0	-1	+4	+6	0.2
2029	30	MLB	SD	43%	258	234	50	10	1	5	20	69	2	3	1	214	281	329	610	115	281	27	8	278	71	-9	+0	-2	+5	+7	0.2
2027	28	MLB	SD	26%	31	29	6	1	0	1	2	8	0	0	0	207	258	345	603	138	278	26	6	267	62	-1	+0	-0	+1	+1	-0.0
2028	29	MLB	SD	37%	73	66	14	3	0	1	6	20	1	1	0	212	288	303	591	91	278	27	8	268	63	-3	+0	-1	+1	+2	0.0
2029	30	MLB	SD	43%	111	100	22	4	1	2	9	30	1	1	0	220	291	340	631	120	278	27	8	268	63	-5	+0	-1	+2	+3	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
Career	—			—	215	195	42	8	1	4	17	58	2	2	0	215	285	328	613	113	284	27	8	268	63	-9	+0	-2	+4	+6	-0.0
/ 162G	—			—	650	590	127	24	3	12	51	175	6	6	0	215	284	327	612	112	283	27	8	268	63	-27	+1	-5	+12	+18	-0.1
Career	—			—	1230	1098	211	39	4	18	103	384	14	13	3	192	270	284	554	92	274	31	8	251	51	-69	+1	-4	+22	+35	-1.5
/ 162G	—			—	650	580	112	21	2	10	54	203	7	7	2	193	269	288	557	95	275	31	8	251	51	-36	+1	-2	+12	+18	-0.8

Historical Stats — Raw (Per Stint)

Actual MLB + MiLB stats as they happened, one row per stint at each level. Use this to see what really got recorded; the table above shows MLB-equivalent translations + projections.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
2021	22	A	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	86	77	20	3	0	1	7	29	1	1	1	260	329	338	667	78	396	34	8	303	90	-1	-0	—	—	+2	0.1
2022	23	A	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	56	40	8	1	0	0	13	14	3	1	0	200	429	225	654	25	308	25	23	337	116	+1	+0	—	—	+2	0.3
2022	23	ROK	ACL Padres	—	91	71	16	3	0	2	18	15	2	0	0	225	396	352	748	127	259	16	20	352	127	+3	+0	—	—	+3	0.5
2023	24	A+	Fort Wayne TinCaps	—	171	140	29	5	1	3	24	47	2	2	0	207	331	321	653	114	283	27	14	296	85	-3	+0	—	—	+5	0.2
2024	25	A+	Fort Wayne TinCaps	—	168	150	25	7	0	1	14	41	0	0	0	167	238	233	471	67	218	24	8	216	23	-15	+0	—	—	+5	-1.0

Career Comps

Retired MLB careers whose totals most resemble what we're projecting for this player. Top row of each card is career totals; bottom row is per-162-game rates. Pool: 727 completed hitter careers (2000-2024).

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	YRS	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	9	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	/162	664	12	0	209	276	313	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#2Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	9	1,844	19	2	219	297	308	+17	+52	5.6	5.8
#2Paul Bakolast yr '09 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,844 PA	/162	664	7	1	219	297	308	+6.1	+18.7	2.0	pk7: 6
#3Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	6	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.2	4.2
#3Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	/162	664	13	20	225	280	350	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#4Guillermo Heredialast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,530 PA	6	1,530	25	6	231	311	345	+3	+17	3.5	3.5
	/162	664	11	3	231	311	345	+1.2	+7.6	1.5	pk7: 3
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	7	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	/162	664	9	2	230	279	335	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 1 projected seasons	1	215	4	3	217	282	332	+4	+4	0.3	0.3
	/162	664	13	9	217	282	332	+11.9	+12.4	0.9	pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	7	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
	/162	664	7	14	231	275	323	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Colton Bender (OGILVIE)	27	—	—	—	—	211/277/321	109	281	1	1	27%	8%	67	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Stevie Berman 2022 · AA	27	41	42→50	49→40	49	203/284/306	102	254	10	6	23%	8%	66	-0.6	210/295/336	126	275	13	5	27%	9%	79	+0.3	195/291/323	129	254	15	1	28%	10%	72	-0.1
✕Dominic Miroglio 2022 · AA	27	40	43→45	43→40	42	200/265/312	112	284	10	5	32%	7%	59	-1.1	218/285/362	144	262	15	6	22%	8%	81	+0.4	201/267/376	175	208	21	2	16%	7%	72	-0.1
✕Alex De Goti 2022 · AAA	27	43→47	43→45	51→50	44	212/275/327	115	284	10	8	28%	7%	66	-0.6	204/281/300	96	277	8	10	27%	9%	63	-0.9	195/278/275	80	264	6	10	26%	9%	52	-0.9
✕Zack Short 2023 · MLB	28	37→38	46→50	46→45	51	190/285/315	126	261	13	9	31%	11%	69	-0.4	190/284/317	127	263	14	10	31%	11%	69	-0.4	173/272/299	126	234	15	8	31%	11%	58	-0.7
✕Andrew Knizner 2022 · MLB	27	43	43→50	48→40	50	212/293/324	112	254	11	6	21%	8%	75	-0.0	218/287/334	116	270	13	4	23%	7%	74	-0.1	218/299/361	142	257	17	2	22%	7%	83	+0.2
✕Gavin Collins 2022 · AAA	27	41	45→50	44→40	44	208/276/324	116	260	13	6	25%	7%	67	-0.5	222/290/349	127	278	15	6	25%	7%	79	+0.3	211/275/318	107	244	12	3	18%	6%	62	-0.3
✕JJ Schwarz 2022 · AA	26	38	46→50	47→30	44	198/261/319	121	270	14	4	32%	8%	59	-1.1	219/286/363	144	306	18	4	32%	8%	81	+0.4	211/283/356	145	291	19	1	33%	9%	75	-0.0
✕Andrew Susac 2017 · MLB	27	41→40	47→50	47→30	43	210/272/345	135	276	15	3	29%	7%	70	-0.3	196/269/337	141	275	17	5	33%	9%	68	-0.5	165/254/305	140	229	19	0	35%	10%	53	-0.5
✕Chuckie Robinson 2022 · AA	27	42→52	46→45	46→45	43	212/280/334	122	279	15	8	29%	7%	72	-0.2	228/277/348	120	291	14	7	26%	5%	72	-0.2	231/279/329	98	306	11	4	27%	5%	66	-0.4
✕Justin Knoedler 2007 · AAA	27	44	41→45	47→45	40	213/265/315	102	291	7	9	28%	6%	59	-1.1	201/248/329	128	273	12	9	30%	5%	56	-1.3	183/233/321	137	245	13	8	30%	5%	46	-1.0
✕Grayson Greiner 2020 · MLB	27	42	45	45→30	45	212/276/331	119	282	13	3	29%	8%	68	-0.5	203/266/324	121	314	14	4	37%	7%	63	-0.9	179/245/267	88	331	10	1	45%	7%	36	-0.9
✕Kramer Robertson 2022 · AAA	27	43→51	46→45	51→55	49	216/295/344	127	267	13	13	24%	8%	80	+0.4	202/300/294	92	268	9	22	26%	10%	70	-0.3	184/296/254	71	251	7	26	26%	10%	56	-1.1
✕Chase Pinder 2022 · AA	26	39	43→45	44→45	46	197/280/304	107	271	12	5	30%	8%	64	-0.8	229/320/373	144	297	15	10	26%	11%	98	+1.6	224/323/376	152	290	16	11	26%	12%	98	+0.8
✕Jake Kahaulelio 2012 · AA	27	42→43	44→45	45	45	209/272/323	114	256	11	6	23%	6%	65	-0.7	213/288/314	101	260	8	11	20%	7%	69	-0.4	192/299/242	50	227	0	23	13%	9%	56	-0.2
✕Joe DeCarlo 2021 · AA	27	42→37	44→55	47→30	39	204/270/318	113	301	11	5	34%	7%	63	-0.9	201/258/295	94	304	9	7	35%	7%	51	-1.7	159/216/216	58	242	7	0	36%	6%	10	-1.4
✕Sean Jamieson 2016 · AA	27	49→43	42→45	46→50	42	233/291/339	106	314	9	10	28%	6%	76	+0.1	213/272/302	89	322	7	8	33%	7%	59	-1.1	172/228/221	49	288	2	0	38%	6%	15	-1.3
✕Devin Ivany 2009 · AA	27	45→48	44→50	46→45	40	224/266/340	117	281	13	9	25%	5%	66	-0.6	220/274/349	129	286	14	9	27%	6%	72	-0.2	211/267/335	124	273	13	8	27%	6%	63	-0.3
✕Pedro Severino 2020 · MLB	27	43→48	47→50	46→45	47	222/284/353	131	259	16	5	22%	7%	78	+0.2	240/304/379	139	298	16	5	24%	8%	92	+1.2	246/308/377	131	314	15	3	25%	8%	90	+0.5
✕Cody Clark 2009 · AA	27	42	43→45	47→40	41	212/259/318	106	257	11	6	23%	4%	58	-1.2	225/273/352	127	262	13	5	20%	5%	72	-0.2	223/271/346	123	258	12	1	18%	5%	67	-0.2
✕Seth Bynum 2008 · AA	27	43→44	40→55	47→50	42	210/266/303	92	281	8	9	27%	6%	56	-1.3	217/261/363	146	295	18	8	32%	5%	70	-0.3	209/253/364	155	284	20	8	33%	5%	65	-0.5