Colton Bender — OGILVIE

Colton BenderC Fort Wayne TinCaps

Age 27 R/R 5'7" / 195 lbs A+ HR +5% Svc 0.0 · Ctrl thru 2035

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 83 proj PA

wRC+†71

AVG/OBP/SLG.211 / .278 / .320

PA7

HR0

K%27

BB%8

ISO110

MLB%0%

Value2026 · WAR

━ projected WAR━ paid WAR ($/8M) surplus deficit-$1M ctrl surplus

Tools · Contract

Contract ESTIMATED · service-time + WAR-based estimator (needs verification)

Status MiLB

MLB Debut 2030

Service 0 yrs (est)

Team Control Through 2035

First FA Year 2036

Year	Status	Salary	Proj WAR	Value	Surplus
2026	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2027	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2028	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2029	MiLB	still in minors · estimated debut 2030
2030	Pre-Arb	$0.9M	—	—	—
2031	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2032	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2033	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2034	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
2035	Ext	beyond projection horizon · no WAR estimate
Totals		$0.0M		$0.0M	+$0.0M

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how these numbers are built

All seasons translated to park-neutral MLB-equivalent (MLE) and combined per year. 2026 = actual YTD + projected ROS + total. 2027+ via Advanced Marcel + aging curve. Catcher framing: only 2026 Statcast framing is modeled (Baseball Savant server-caches the leaderboard to the current season); prior-year framing is unmodeled — projections for established framers may run below FG-DC by 1-3 WAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	MLB%	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	BB	SO	HBP	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	K%	BB%	wOBA	wRC+	BAT	RUN	FLD	POS	REP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per stint (as recorded, no adjustments)
2021	22	A	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	86	77	20	3	0	1	7	29	1	1	1	260	329	338	667	78	396	34	8	303	91	-1	-0	—	—	+2	0.1
2022	23	A	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	56	40	8	1	0	0	13	14	3	1	0	200	429	225	654	25	308	25	23	337	114	+1	+0	—	—	+1	0.2
2022	23	ROK	ACL Padres	—	91	71	16	3	0	2	18	15	2	0	0	225	396	352	748	127	259	16	20	352	124	+3	+0	—	—	+2	0.5
2023	24	A+	Fort Wayne TinCaps	—	171	140	29	5	1	3	24	47	2	2	0	207	331	321	653	114	283	27	14	296	86	-3	+0	—	—	+4	0.1
2024	25	A+	Fort Wayne TinCaps	—	168	150	25	7	0	1	14	41	0	0	0	167	238	233	471	67	218	24	8	216	32	-14	+0	—	—	+4	-1.0
▸ Career — adjusted (every ACTUAL line translated to park/league-neutral MLB equivalents)
2021	22	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	86	79	15	2	0	1	5	42	1	1	1	190	247	253	500	63	353	49	6	212	30	-7	-0	—	—	+2	-0.6
2022	23	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	56	44	7	1	0	0	9	19	3	1	0	159	339	182	521	23	269	34	16	255	59	-3	+0	—	—	+1	-0.1
2022	23	ROK MLE	ACL Padres	—	91	78	13	2	0	1	11	22	2	0	0	167	286	231	516	64	221	24	12	254	58	-5	+0	—	—	+2	-0.3
2023	24	A+ MLE	Fort Wayne TinCaps	—	171	147	27	4	1	3	17	63	2	2	0	184	277	286	563	102	267	37	10	246	53	-10	+0	—	—	+4	-0.6
2024	25	A+ MLE	Fort Wayne TinCaps	—	168	154	22	6	0	1	10	56	0	0	0	143	195	201	396	58	197	33	6	170	1	-20	+0	—	—	+4	-1.6
2021	22	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	86	79	15	2	0	1	5	42	1	1	1	190	247	253	500	63	378	49	6	212	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	A RAW	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	86	77	20	3	0	1	7	29	1	1	1	260	329	338	667	78	396	34	8	303	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	147	122	20	3	0	1	20	41	5	1	0	164	306	213	519	49	237	28	14	254	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	ROK RAW	2 teams	—	147	111	24	4	0	2	31	29	5	1	0	216	408	306	714	90	275	20	21	346	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	A+ MLE	Fort Wayne TinCaps	—	171	147	27	4	1	3	17	63	2	2	0	184	277	286	563	102	289	37	10	246	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	A+ RAW	Fort Wayne TinCaps	—	171	140	29	5	1	3	24	47	2	2	0	207	331	321	653	114	283	27	14	296	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	A+ MLE	Fort Wayne TinCaps	—	168	154	22	6	0	1	10	56	0	0	0	143	195	201	396	58	212	33	6	170	1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	A+ RAW	Fort Wayne TinCaps	—	168	150	25	7	0	1	14	41	0	0	0	167	238	233	471	67	218	24	8	216	1	—	—	—	—	—	—
2021	22	A MLE	Lake Elsinore Storm	—	86	80	15	2	0	1	5	42	1	1	1	188	247	250	497	62	353	49	6	212	30	—	—	—	—	—	—
2022	23	ROK MLE	2 teams	—	147	121	20	3	0	1	20	41	5	1	0	165	306	215	521	50	239	28	14	254	58	—	—	—	—	—	—
2023	24	A+ MLE	Fort Wayne TinCaps	—	171	150	27	4	1	3	17	63	2	2	0	180	277	280	557	100	267	37	10	246	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	A+ MLE	Fort Wayne TinCaps	—	168	156	22	6	0	1	10	56	0	0	0	141	195	199	394	58	197	33	6	170	1	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2023	24	A+ MLE	Fort Wayne TinCaps	—	171	150	27	4	1	3	17	63	2	2	0	180	277	280	557	100	267	37	10	246	53	—	—	—	—	—	—
2024	25	A+ MLE	Fort Wayne TinCaps	—	168	156	22	6	0	1	10	56	0	0	0	141	195	199	394	58	197	33	6	170	1	—	—	—	—	—	—
▸ 2026 season
2026	27	MLB MLE	SD	0%	7	6	1	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	167	286	167	452		281	29	14	272	71	-0	+0	+0	+0	+0	0.1
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (PA × MLB%)
2027	28	MLB MLE	SD	26%	118	107	23	4	1	2	9	31	1	2	0	215	282	327	609	112	282	26	8	277	73	-4	+0	-1	+2	+3	0.1
2028	29	MLB MLE	SD	37%	199	179	40	8	1	4	16	53	2	3	1	223	294	346	641	123	282	27	8	278	74	-6	+0	-1	+4	+4	0.1
2029	30	MLB MLE	SD	43%	258	234	51	10	1	5	20	69	2	3	1	218	285	333	618	115	281	27	8	278	74	-8	+0	-2	+5	+6	0.0
2030	31	MLB MLE	SD	46%	269	244	52	10	1	5	21	72	2	3	1	213	281	324	605	111	279	27	8	275	72	-9	+0	-3	+5	+6	-0.1
2027	28	MLB CTX	SD	26%	31	29	6	1	0	1	2	8	0	0	0	207	258	345	603	138	279	26	6	269	73	-1	+0	-0	+1	+1	0.0
2028	29	MLB CTX	SD	37%	73	66	14	3	0	1	6	19	1	1	0	212	288	303	591	91	279	26	8	271	74	-2	+0	-1	+1	+2	0.0
2029	30	MLB CTX	SD	43%	111	100	22	4	1	2	9	29	1	1	0	220	291	340	631	120	278	26	8	270	74	-3	+0	-1	+2	+2	0.0
2030	31	MLB CTX	SD	46%	125	113	24	5	1	2	10	33	1	1	0	212	282	327	610	115	276	26	8	267	72	-4	+0	-1	+2	+3	-0.0
▸ Career Totals
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	A+C		—	340	308	66	13	2	6	27	89	3	3	0	214	284	328	612	114	279	26	8	269	58	-11	+1	-3	+6	+7	0.0
/ 162G	—	A+C		—	650	589	126	25	4	11	52	170	6	6	0	214	285	326	611	112	279	26	8	269	58	-21	+1	-6	+12	+14	0.1
Career	—	MLE		—	1423	1272	251	47	5	22	119	429	15	15	4	197	274	294	568	97	276	30	8	254	58	-27	+1	-7	+15	+18	0.1
/ 162G	—	MLE		—	650	581	114	21	2	10	54	196	7	7	2	196	273	291	563	95	274	30	8	254	58	-21	+1	-5	+12	+14	0.1

PLAYER · career totals + /162 games	162s	PA	HR	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG	POS	FLD	WAR	JAWS
#1Sandy Leónlast yr '22 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,648 PA	2.5	1,648	31	1	209	276	313	+29	+56	6.4	6.7
/162	664	12	0	+11.9	+22.4	2.6	pk7: 7
#2Adam Engellast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,540 PA	2.3	1,540	30	47	225	280	350	+4	+33	4.1	4.1
/162	664	13	20	+1.8	+14.4	1.8	pk7: 4
#3Adam Rosaleslast yr '17 career totals — 9 seasons, 1,756 PA	2.6	1,756	47	16	227	293	367	+6	+8	3.0	3.5
/162	664	18	6	+2.4	+3.0	1.1	pk7: 4
#4Guillermo Heredialast yr '22 career totals — 6 seasons, 1,530 PA	2.3	1,530	25	6	231	311	345	+3	+17	3.5	3.5
/162	664	11	3	+1.2	+7.6	1.5	pk7: 3
#5Ryan Goinslast yr '19 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,680 PA	2.5	1,680	22	6	230	279	335	+9	+21	2.0	2.0
/162	664	9	2	+3.7	+8.5	0.8	pk7: 2
OGOGILVIE CAREER PROJECTION career totals — every cell rolls up across 2 projected seasons	0.5	340	6	4	216	282	330	+6	+8	0.5	0.5
/162	664	12	9	+11.9	+15.6	0.9	pk7: 0
#6Alexi Amaristalast yr '17 career totals — 7 seasons, 1,901 PA	2.9	1,901	21	39	231	275	323	+14	-6	-1.1	-1.1
/162	664	7	14	+4.9	-2.1	-0.4	pk7: -1

Career Path Comps

What happened to players with a similar stat profile at this age · Y-axis: wRC+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

		Scouting				At Match Age									Next 3 Yrs									Peak 3 Yrs
Comp	Age	HIT	PWR	SPD	EYE	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR	AVG/OBP/SLG	ISO	BABIP	HR	SB	K%	BB%	wRC+	WAR
Colton Bender (OGILVIE)	27	—	—	—	—	211/278/320	109	281	1	1	27%	8%	71	-0.1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
✕Dominic Miroglio 2022 · AA	27	42	44→45	43→40	43	210/274/328	118	283	11	5	29%	7%	70	-0.8	219/287/362	143	261	15	6	21%	8%	83	+0.1	203/270/374	171	212	20	2	16%	7%	76	-0.2
✕Stevie Berman 2022 · AA	27	42	42→45	49→40	49	204/282/305	101	251	9	6	22%	8%	69	-0.9	205/291/317	112	272	11	5	27%	9%	76	-0.4	186/284/295	109	248	12	1	28%	10%	67	-0.4
✕Chuckie Robinson 2022 · AA	27	43→53	44→45	46→45	44	213/279/326	113	278	13	8	28%	7%	72	-0.7	227/275/338	111	291	12	7	25%	5%	72	-0.7	225/274/315	90	300	10	4	27%	5%	65	-0.7
✕JJ Schwarz 2022 · AA	26	40	43→45	47→30	45	202/266/307	106	274	11	4	30%	8%	63	-1.4	220/287/341	121	307	13	4	31%	8%	78	-0.3	213/285/332	119	296	14	1	31%	9%	73	-0.4
✕David Sheaffer 2022 · AAA	27	44	42→50	49→40	39	216/260/323	108	296	10	6	30%	5%	63	-1.3	199/252/297	98	292	8	7	33%	6%	55	-2.0	141/196/220	79	214	6	0	36%	5%	15	-1.2
✕Alex De Goti 2022 · AAA	27	43→48	42→45	51→50	44	208/272/316	108	281	8	8	28%	7%	67	-1.1	202/279/294	92	275	7	10	27%	9%	65	-1.2	192/275/269	77	260	6	10	26%	9%	55	-1.1
✕Joe DeCarlo 2021 · AA	27	41→38	42→50	47→30	40	199/266/299	100	293	9	5	34%	7%	61	-1.5	202/262/294	92	302	9	7	34%	7%	57	-1.8	164/225/218	54	247	7	0	35%	7%	24	-1.3
✕Gavin Collins 2022 · AAA	27	40	43→45	44→40	44	202/271/309	107	256	12	6	25%	7%	65	-1.2	215/285/332	117	272	13	6	25%	7%	76	-0.4	204/266/298	94	236	10	3	18%	6%	59	-0.6
✕Devin Ivany 2009 · AA	27	45→48	44→50	46→45	40	224/266/336	113	280	12	9	24%	5%	69	-0.9	220/275/345	125	284	13	9	26%	6%	74	-0.5	211/268/330	119	271	12	8	26%	7%	67	-0.4
✕Cody Clark 2009 · AA	27	42	42→45	47→40	41	211/259/313	102	256	11	6	22%	4%	61	-1.5	224/271/345	121	260	12	5	19%	5%	73	-0.6	221/269/340	119	253	12	1	18%	5%	68	-0.4
✕Steve Holm 2006 · AA	26	42	42→50	47→40	43	209/269/311	102	266	11	6	25%	6%	65	-1.2	226/294/371	145	273	17	4	23%	7%	88	+0.5	229/305/377	149	268	17	2	21%	8%	90	+0.3
✕Kramer Robertson 2022 · AAA	27	44→51	44→40	51→55	50	217/299/336	119	268	11	13	23%	9%	82	+0.0	205/307/292	87	273	8	22	25%	10%	76	-0.4	189/303/255	65	260	6	26	26%	11%	64	-1.1
✕Justin Knoedler 2007 · AAA	27	44	41→45	47→45	41	214/266/316	102	291	7	9	28%	6%	64	-1.3	201/249/329	128	273	12	9	30%	5%	61	-1.5	183/233/321	137	245	13	8	30%	5%	52	-1.0
✕Brian O'Keefe 2021 · AA	28	41→43	46→55	45→40	47	211/281/338	127	262	14	5	25%	8%	76	-0.4	215/273/369	154	291	19	5	32%	7%	80	-0.2	196/260/359	163	245	20	1	28%	7%	70	-0.5
✕Renae Martinez 2021 · AA	27	41→32	42→45	44→40	43	203/267/305	102	272	10	4	28%	7%	63	-1.4	200/269/317	117	306	11	8	36%	8%	66	-1.1	150/230/278	128	233	13	6	39%	8%	40	-0.8
✕Grayson Greiner 2020 · MLB	27	42	44→45	45→30	45	209/274/321	111	279	12	3	29%	8%	69	-0.9	201/265/316	115	313	13	4	37%	7%	65	-1.2	178/245/263	85	331	9	1	46%	8%	42	-0.9
✕Zack Short 2023 · MLB	28	37→39	44→50	46→45	50	188/283/306	118	262	12	9	31%	11%	70	-0.8	187/282/307	120	260	13	10	31%	11%	70	-0.9	168/270/286	118	229	14	8	31%	11%	59	-1.0
✕Chase Pinder 2022 · AA	26	40	43→45	44→45	46	198/281/301	102	271	11	5	30%	8%	68	-1.0	227/321/361	134	295	13	10	25%	11%	96	+1.0	222/324/360	138	289	14	11	26%	12%	95	+0.5
✕Arturo Rodriguez 2019 · AAA	27	45→43	42→45	47→30	44	222/268/324	102	272	11	6	23%	6%	67	-1.1	252/290/382	130	286	16	6	18%	4%	88	+0.5	270/300/393	123	298	18	2	16%	3%	91	+0.4
✕Steve Moss 2011 · A	27	44→49	44→45	48→50	42	215/273/331	116	287	11	8	28%	6%	71	-0.8	237/300/378	141	327	17	11	31%	7%	92	+0.7	229/311/406	176	282	23	8	27%	9%	100	+0.3

Career Stats + Projections

Career Comps

Career Path Comps