Miguel Hernandez (P, FCL Braves) prospect projection, MLE, ETA

Miguel Hernandez P FCL Braves

Age 23 RHP 6'0" / 174 lbs ROK peak 0.1 · 2027

2026 FULL-SEASON PROJECTIONpark-neutral Marcel · 15 proj IP

wRC+ AGAINSTvL 115107vR 99

ERA4.32

FIP4.32

K%22.9%

BB%8.9%

K-BB%14.0%

ROS IP16

Value2026 · WAR

Runs saved vs league avg · 15 IP

Grades · Contract

Scouting Grades

K†5555

Contract

No contract data on file. Pre-MLB players and minor-league free agents do not yet have salary projections — entries are added at first 40-man roster placement.

Career Stats + Projections

Real MLB stats plus park-adjusted projections — this season (so far / rest / full), then future seasons and career totals.

show model inputsbasis chips: RAW = as recorded · CTX = with park/league context · A+C = actual + context combined · MLE = level/park-neutral

Methodology▸ how WAR & MLE are computed

Stats are park-neutral MLB equivalents. The "TEAM" column shows current org affiliation only — we do NOT project at that team's park.
Rates (K%, BB%, HR-BF) are park-stripped; MiLB stat lines are translated to their MLB-equivalent via per-level MLE factors.
WAR is computed from projected runs prevented vs a replacement pitcher (the marginal arm a team would call up if this pitcher were unavailable) — calibrated to industry-standard fWAR.

Year	Age	Lvl	Team	G	GS	IP	BF	K	BB	HR	GS%	IP/G	K%	BB%	K-BB%	HR%	ERA	FIP	WAR
▸ Career — actual stats, one row per year (as recorded, no adjustments)
▸ Career — adjusted (each season translated to a park/league-neutral MLB-equivalent line; levels combined per year)
▸ Model inputs — neutral MLE (past 3 seasons + 2026 so far)
2022	19	ROK MLE	FCL Braves	10	3	23	106	28	17	1	30%	2.3	18.0%	20.0%	-2.1%	1.2%	6.17	4.80	—
2022	19	ROK RAW	FCL Braves	10	3	23	106	28	17	1	30%	2.3	26.4%	16.0%	10.4%	0.9%	6.17	3.44	—
2023	20	ROK MLE	FCL Braves	18	0	26	121	30	8	2	0%	1.4	16.9%	8.3%	8.6%	2.6%	3.81	4.15	—
2023	20	ROK MLE	FCL Braves	18	0	26	121	30	8	2	0%	1.4	16.9%	8.3%	8.6%	2.6%	3.81	4.15	—
2023	20	ROK RAW	FCL Braves	18	0	26	121	30	8	2	0%	1.4	24.8%	6.6%	18.2%	1.7%	3.81	2.72	—
2024	21	ROK MLE	FCL Braves	4	0	6	25	4	3	0	0%	1.4	16.0%	12.0%	4.0%	0.0%	3.18	3.27	—
2024	21	ROK MLE	FCL Braves	4	0	6	25	4	3	0	0%	1.4	16.0%	12.0%	4.0%	0.0%	3.18	3.27	—
2024	21	ROK RAW	FCL Braves	4	0	6	25	4	3	0	0%	1.4	16.0%	12.0%	4.0%	0.0%	3.18	3.28	—
▸ 2026 season — projected remainder (no 2026 stats recorded)
2026	23	MLB	ATL	—	—	0	—	—	—	—	—	—	22.9%	8.9%	14.0%	3.0%	4.32	4.32	—
▸ Career projection (2027+) — MLB context, MLB playing time (IP × MLB%)
2027	24	MLB MLE	ATL	19	0	20	84	20	7	3	0%	1.1	23.5%	8.6%	14.9%	3.0%	4.26	4.22	+0.1
2027	24	MLB CTX	ATL	9	0	9	38	9	3	1	0%	1.0	23.5%	8.6%	14.9%	3.0%	4.26	4.22	+0.0
▸ Career totals — MLB only (actual + projected)
Career	—	RAW		8	0	9	36	8	3	1	0%	1.1	23.5%	8.6%	14.9%	3.0%	4.26	3.84	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	RAW		190	0	200	844	187	70	23	0%	1.1	23.5%	8.6%	14.9%	3.0%	4.26	3.84	+1.7
Career	—	MLE		32	3	55	252	43	34	4	9%	1.7	17.2%	13.6%	3.6%	1.8%	4.75	4.33	+0.1
/ 200 IP	—	MLE		116	11	200	916	158	125	16	9%	1.7	17.2%	13.6%	3.6%	1.8%	4.75	4.33	+0.8

Career Path Comps

What happened to similar pitchers from this age · Y-axis: ERA+ (100 = league avg, 150 = elite, 80 = below) · Bands: P10–P90 outer, P25–P75 inner · Gold: OGILVIE projection

			Profile at Match Age					Next 3 Yrs				Career
Comp	Age	Role	FIP	K%	BB%	HR/BF	BABIP	FIP	K%	K-BB%	IP	ΔFIP	Low FIP	IP	Match
Miguel Hernandez (OGILVIE)	—	—	4.32	22.9%	8.9%	3.0%	—	4.22	23.5%	14.9%	20	-0.10	—	—	—
Michael Gomez R 2019 · 3.32 FIP	22	SU	3.32	22.6%	9.2%	1.8%	.283	3.81	17.9%	8.3%	110	+0.49	3.27	286	88
Heath Holder R 2016 · 4.16 FIP	23	SU	4.16	21.1%	10.1%	2.8%	.287	3.30	22.3%	13.1%	247	-0.86	2.94	367	88
Tyler Bray R 2015 · 4.07 FIP	23	SU	4.07	22.3%	9.1%	3.1%	.356	3.21	17.9%	7.6%	114	-0.86	2.82	152	87
Ricardo Velez R 2023 · 4.44 FIP	24	SU	4.44	22.4%	10.9%	3.4%	.261	4.09	18.8%	8.1%	138	-0.35	3.83	166	86
Reilly Hovis R 2017 · 4.28 FIP	23	SU	4.28	21.1%	7.7%	3.6%	.250	4.36	19.8%	6.4%	50	+0.08	4.28	130	86
Peyton Williams R 2021 · 3.69 FIP	23	SU	3.69	22.3%	10.3%	2.1%	.311	4.82	22.2%	10.2%	100	+1.13	3.69	123	86
Stolmy Pimentel R 2014 · 4.13 FIP	24	SU	4.13	25.7%	9.5%	3.6%	.319	4.17	14.8%	4.3%	143	+0.04	3.87	176	86
Jonathan Papelbon R 2005 · 3.93 FIP	24	SW	3.93	23.0%	10.1%	2.7%	.305	1.90	31.3%	26.8%	196	-2.03	1.33	726	86
Grant Balfour R 2003 · 4.13 FIP	25	SU	4.13	26.1%	10.4%	3.5%	.275	3.79	24.4%	12.8%	39	-0.34	2.04	533	85
Devon Roedahl R 2019 · 3.94 FIP	22	SU	3.94	19.7%	6.7%	3.0%	.305	4.64	16.5%	9.2%	100	+0.70	3.94	122	85
Kevin Coulter R 2019 · 3.27 FIP	22	SU	3.27	21.0%	7.4%	1.8%	.287	4.51	16.1%	7.6%	92	+1.24	3.27	128	85
Jake Bray R 2016 · 3.28 FIP	23	SU	3.28	21.1%	7.7%	1.8%	.245	4.56	21.4%	10.8%	158	+1.28	2.51	198	84
Nolan Clenney R 2021 · 3.73 FIP	25	SU	3.73	25.5%	8.4%	3.1%	.340	4.35	22.4%	13.7%	185	+0.62	3.73	223	84
Vince Vannelle R 2022 · 3.71 FIP	24	SU	3.71	19.9%	8.6%	2.2%	.282	5.30	15.3%	4.5%	76	+1.59	3.71	105	84
Owen Holt R 2022 · 3.72 FIP	23	SU	3.72	20.7%	10.2%	2.0%	.258	4.51	18.7%	6.4%	107	+0.79	3.72	145	84
Carlos Navas R 2016 · 3.67 FIP	23	SU	3.67	22.0%	8.4%	2.5%	.283	3.52	22.0%	16.1%	229	-0.15	2.98	385	84
Kyle Schepel R 2015 · 4.63 FIP	24	SU	4.63	23.1%	10.7%	3.9%	.233	3.64	22.1%	10.4%	120	-0.99	3.54	156	84
Fineas Del Bonta-Smith R 2021 · 3.52 FIP	24	SU	3.52	23.4%	8.2%	2.5%	.262	6.05	20.5%	11.4%	128	+2.53	3.52	207	83
Jonathan Brand R 2023 · 3.95 FIP	23	SU	3.95	22.7%	10.8%	2.5%	.236	4.79	19.7%	9.4%	160	+0.84	3.34	198	83
Kyle Martin R 2015 · 3.61 FIP	24	SU	3.61	21.2%	9.6%	2.0%	.345	3.51	22.4%	12.5%	172	-0.10	3.01	214	83